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A methodology for predicting solar particle event doses using Bayesian inference is being developed. As part of this development, we have tested criteria for categorization of new solar particle events (SPE) using calculated asymptotic doses and dose rates for the 22 SPEs that occurred in 2001. In 9 out of 22 events, our criteria for categorization would have over-predicted the range of asymptotic doses in which the tested events would have fallen. In two cases, our methodology under-predicted the dose range in which the event would have fallen. In order to better predict a new event's group category and thus, to better restrict the Bayesian inference predictive model parameter space, we have reexamined our dose rate criteria for categorization of new events. We report the updating of the grouping criteria using data from the 22 SPEs of 2001, as well as five additional SPEs. Using the revised grouping criteria, we present an analysis of group categorization prediction results for the first ten SPEs of 2002. 相似文献
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The objective of the 2009 Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), which is planned to follow the Mars Exploration Rovers and the Phoenix lander to the surface of Mars, is to explore and assess quantitatively a site on Mars as a potential habitat for present or past life. Specific goals include an assessment of the past or present biological potential of the target environment and a characterization of its geology and geochemistry. Included in the 10 investigations of the MSL rover is the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite, which is designed to obtain trace organic measurements, measure water and other volatiles, and measure several light isotopes with experiment sequences designed for both atmospheric and solid-phase samples. SAM integrates a gas chromatograph, a mass spectrometer, and a tunable laser spectrometer supported by sample manipulation tools both within and external to the suite. The sub-part-per-billion sensitivity of the suite for trace species, particularly organic molecules, along with a mobile platform that will contain many kilograms of organic materials, presents a considerable challenge due to the potential for terrestrial contamination to mask the signal of martian organics. We describe the effort presently underway to understand and mitigate, wherever possible within the resource constraints of the mission, terrestrial contamination in MSL and SAM measurements. 相似文献
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