On the effect of considering more realistic particle shape and mass parameters in MMOD risk assessments

One of the primary mission risks tracked in the development of all spacecraft is that due to micro-meteoroids and orbital debris (MMOD). Both types of particles, especially those larger than 0.1 mm in diameter, contain sufficient kinetic energy due to their combined mass and velocities to cause serious damage to crew members and spacecraft. The process used to assess MMOD risk consists of three elements: environment, damage prediction, and damage tolerance. Orbital debris risk assessments for the Orion vehicle, as well as the Shuttle, Space Station and other satellites use ballistic limit equations (BLEs) that have been developed using high speed impact test data and results from numerical simulations that have used spherical projectiles. However, spheres are not expected to be a common shape for orbital debris; rather, orbital debris fragments might be better represented by other regular or irregular solids. In this paper we examine the general construction of NASA’s current orbital debris (OD) model, explore the potential variations in orbital debris mass and shape that are possible when using particle characteristic length to define particle size (instead of assuming spherical particles), and, considering specifically the Orion vehicle, perform an orbital debris risk sensitivity study taking into account variations in particle mass and shape as noted above. While the results of the work performed for this study are preliminary, they do show that continuing to use aluminum spheres in spacecraft risk assessments could result in an over-design of its MMOD protection systems. In such a case, the spacecraft could be heavier than needed, could cost more than needed, and could cost more to put into orbit than needed. The results obtained in this study also show the need to incorporate effects of mass and shape in mission risk assessment prior to first flight of any spacecraft as well as the need to continue to develop/refine BLEs so that they more accurately reflect the shape and material density variations inherent to the actual debris environment.     

Feasibility of performing space surveillance tasks with a proposed space-based optical architecture

Under ESA contract an industrial consortium including Aboa Space Research Oy (ASRO), the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB), and the Dutch National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR), proposed the observation concept, developed a suitable sensor architecture, and assessed the performance of a space-based optical (SBO) telescope in 2005. The goal of the SBO study was to analyse how the existing knowledge gap in the space debris population in the millimetre and centimetre regime may be closed by means of a passive optical instrument. The SBO instrument was requested to provide statistical information on the space debris population in terms of number of objects and size distribution. The SBO instrument was considered to be a cost-efficient with 20 cm aperture and 6° field-of-view and having flexible integration requirements. It should be possible to integrate the SBO instrument easily as a secondary payload on satellites launched into low-Earth orbits (LEO), or into geostationary orbit (GEO). Thus the selected mission concept only allowed for fix-mounted telescopes, and the pointing direction could be requested freely. Since 2007 ESA focuses space surveillance and tracking activities in the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) preparatory program. Ground-based radars and optical telescopes are studied for the build-up and maintenance of a catalogue of objects. In this paper we analyse how the proposed SBO architecture could contribute to the space surveillance tasks survey and tracking. We assume that the SBO instrumentation is placed into a circular sun-synchronous orbit at 800 km altitude. We discuss the observation conditions of objects at higher altitude, and select an orbit close to the terminator plane. A pointing of the sensor orthogonal to the orbital plane with optimal elevation slightly in positive direction (0° and +5°) is found optimal for accessing the entire GEO regime within one day, implying a very good coverage of controlled objects in GEO, too. Simulations using ESA’s Program for Radar and Optical Observation Forecasting (PROOF) in the version 2005 and a GEO reference population extracted from DISCOS revealed that the proposed pointing scenario provides low phase angles together with low angular velocities of the objects crossing the field-of-view. Radiometric simulations show that the optimal exposure time is 1–2 s, and that spherical objects in GEO with a diameter of below 1 m can be detected. The GEO population can be covered under proper illumination nearly completely, but seasonal drops of the coverage are possible. Subsequent observations of objects are on average at least every 1.5 days, not exceeding 3 days at maximum. A single observation arc spans 3° to 5° on average. Using a simulation environment that connects PROOF to AIUB’s program system CelMech we verify the consistency of the initial orbit determination for five selected test objects on subsequent days as a function of realistic astrometric noise levels. The initial orbit determination is possible. We define requirements for a correlator process essential for catalogue build-up and maintenance. Each single observation should provide an astrometric accuracy of at least 1”–1.5” so that the initially determined orbits are consistent within a few hundred kilometres for the semi-major axis, 0.01 for the eccentricity, and 0.1° for the inclination.     

Time-dependent cosmic ray modulation

Time-dependent cosmic ray modulation is calculated over multiple solar cycles using our well established two-dimensional time-dependent modulation model. Results are compared to Voyager 1, Ulysses and IMP cosmic ray observations to establish compatibility. A time-dependence in the diffusion and drift coefficients, implicitly contained in recent expressions derived by , ,  and , is incorporated into the cosmic ray modulation model. This results in calculations which are compatible with spacecraft observations on a global scale over consecutive solar cycles. This approach compares well to the successful compound approach of Ferreira and Potgieter (2004). For both these approaches the magnetic field magnitude, variance of the field and current sheet tilt angle values observed at Earth are transported time-dependently into the outer heliosphere. However, when results are compared to observations for extreme solar maximum, the computed step-like modulation is not as pronounced as observed. This indicates that some additional merging of these structures into more pronounced modulation barriers along the way is needed.     

Characteristics of field line resonance type geomagnetic pulsations and variations of plasmaspheric plasma density distribution

The period of field line resonance (FLR) type geomagnetic pulsations depends on the length of the field line and on the plasma density in the inner magnetosphere (plasmasphere), where field lines are closed. Here as FLR period, the period belonging to the maximum occurrence frequency of the occurrence frequency spectrum (equivalent resonance curve) of pulsations has been considered. The resonance system may be replaced by an equivalent resonant circuit. The plasma density would correspond to the ohmic load. The plasma in the plasmasphere originates from the ionosphere, thus FLR period, occurrence frequency are also affected by the maximum electron density in the ionosphere. The FLR period has shown an enhancement with increasing F region electron density, while the occurrence frequency indicated diminishing trend (possible damping effect). Thus, the increased plasma density may be the cause of the decreased occurrence of FLR type pulsations in the winter months of solar activity maximum years (winter anomaly).     

Spatial variation of the supersonic thermal plasma flow downstream of the termination shock

In this paper we start from the most recently observed fact that the solar wind plasma after passage over the termination shock is still supersonic with a Mach number of about 2. To explain this unexpected phenomenon and to predict the evolution of properties of the downstream plasma flow we here consider a two-fluid proton plasma with pick-up protons as a separate suprathermal, second proton fluid. We then formulate a self-consistent system of hydrodynamical conservation equations coupling the two fluids by dynamical and thermodynamical coupling terms and taking into account the effects of newly incorporated protons due to charge exchange with the H-atoms in the heliosheath. This then allows us to predict that in the most probable case the solar wind protons will become subsonic over a distance of about 30 AU downstream of the shock. As we can also show, it may, however, happen that the plasma mixture later again reconverts to a supersonic signature and has to undergo a second shock before meeting the heliopause.     

Results of solar observations by the CORONAS-F payload

The CORONAS-F mission experiments and results have been reviewed. The observations with the DIFOS multi-channel photometer in a broad spectral range from 350 to 1500 nm have revealed the dependence of the relative amplitudes of p-modes of the global solar oscillations on the wavelength that agrees perfectly well with the earlier data obtained in a narrower spectral ranges. The SPIRIT EUV observations have enabled the study of various manifestations of solar activity and high-temperature events on the Sun. The data from the X-ray spectrometer RESIK, gamma spectrometer HELICON, flare spectrometer IRIS, amplitude–temporal spectrometer AVS-F, and X-ray spectrometer RPS-1 have been used to analyze the X- and gamma-ray emission from solar flares and for diagnostics of the flaring plasma. The absolute and relative content of various elements (such as potassium, argon, and sulfur) of solar plasma in flares has been determined for the first time with the X-ray spectrometer RESIK. The Solar Cosmic Ray Complex monitored the solar flare effects in the Earth’s environment. The UV emission variations recorded during solar flares in the vicinity of the 120-nm wavelength have been analyzed and the amplitude of relative variations has been determined.     

The properties of hard X-ray emitting symbiotic stars

Hard X-ray emitting symbiotic stars are candidates for SN Ia progenitors. The importance of Type Ia SNe as standard candles for cosmology makes the study of their progenitor systems particularly important. Additionally, they provide one of the most promising laboratories for the study of astrophysical jets. Typically, the X-ray emission in these systems is modeled with a collisional plasma model, sometimes with an emission measure distribution taken from a cooling flow model. The lack of any coherent periods in both X-rays and optical wave band strongly suggests that the accreting white dwarfs in the hard X-ray symbiotic stars are non-magnetic. Although relatively few have been discovered to date, but we believe that there are very many of them in our galaxy and could be possible candidates for the Galactic Ridge X-ray Emissions (GRXE).     

Evolution of periodic orbits near the Lagrangian point L2

A study of the evolution of the periodic and the quasi-periodic orbits near the Lagrangian point L₂, which is located to the right of the smaller primary on the line joining the primaries and whose distance from the more massive primary is greater than the distance between the primaries, in the framework of restricted three-body problem for the Sun–Jupiter, Earth–Moon (relatively large mass ratio) and Saturn–Titan (relatively small mass ratio) systems is made. Two families of periodic orbits around the smaller primary are identified using the Poincaré surface of section method – family I (initially elliptical, gradually becomes egg-shaped with the increase in the Jacobi constant C and elongated towards the more massive primary) and family II (initially egg-shaped orbits elongated towards L₂ and gradually becomes elliptical with the increase in C). The family I in the Sun–Jupiter and Saturn–Titan systems contains two separatrix caused by third-order and fourth-order resonances, while the Earth–Moon system has only one separatrix which is caused by third-order resonances. Also in the Sun–Jupiter and the Saturn–Titan systems, family I merge with family II, around Jacobian constant 3.0393 and 3.0163, respectively, while in the Earth–Moon system, family II evolves separately from two different branches. The two branches merge at C = 3.184515. In the Earth–Moon system, the family II contains a separatrix due to third-order resonances which is absent in the other two systems.     

An Artificial Neural Network based approach for estimation of rain intensity from spectral moments of a Doppler Weather Radar

By using a Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) at Shriharikota (13.66°N & 80.23°E), an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based technique is proposed to improve the accuracy of rain intensity estimation. Three spectral moments of a Doppler spectra are utilized as an input data to an ANN. Rain intensity, as measured by the tipping bucket rain gauges around the DWR station, are considered as a target values for the given inputs. Rain intensity as estimated by the developed ANN model is validated by the rain gauges measurements. With the help of a developed technique, reasonable improvement in the estimation of rain intensity is observed. By using the developed technique, root mean square error and bias are reduced in the range of 34–18% and 17–3% respectively, compared to Z–R approach.     

Normalized ionization yield function for various nuclei obtained with full Monte Carlo simulations

Several recent results important for production of ion pairs in the Earth atmosphere by various primary cosmic ray nuclei are presented. The direct ionization by various primary cosmic ray nuclei is explicitly obtained. The longitudinal profile of atmospheric cascades is sensitive to the energy and mass (charge) of the primary particle. In this study different cosmic ray nuclei are considered as primaries, namely Helium, Oxygen and Iron nuclei. The cosmic ray induced ionization is obtained on the basis of CORSIKA 6.52 code simulations using FLUKA 2006 and QGSJET II hadronic interaction models. The energy of the primary particles is normalized to GeV per nucleon. In addition, the ionization yield function Y is normalized as ion pair production per nucleon. The obtained ionization yield functions Y for various primaries are compared. The presented results and their application are discussed.