Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and forecasts for cycle 24 activity

The decay phase of the sunspot cycle 23 exhibited two unusual features. First, it lasted too long. Second, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity at earth orbit reached the lowest value since in situ measurements in space began in October 1963. These physical anomalies significantly altered the early forecasts for the sunspot activity parameters for cycle 24, made by several colleagues. We note that there was a significant change in the solar behavior during cycle 22. We discuss the observed trends and their effect on our empirical solar activity forecast technique, leading to our prediction for cycle 24 parameters; cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013. We speculate on the possible implications of this outcome on future earth climate change and the ensuing socio-economic consequences.     

Quantifying the role of solar radiative forcing over the 20th century

The 20th century temperature anomaly record is reproduced using an energy balance model, with a diffusive deep ocean. The model takes into account all the standard radiative forcings, and in addition the possibility of a non-thermal solar component. The model is parameterized and then optimized to produce the most likely values for the climate parameters and radiative forcings which reproduce the 20th century global warming. We find that the best fit is obtained with a negligible net feedback. We also show that a non-thermal solar component is necessarily present, indicating that the total solar contribution to the 20th century global warming, of ΔT_solar = 0.27 ± 0.07 °C, is much larger than can be expected from variation in the total solar irradiance alone. However, we also find that the largest contribution to the 20th century warming comes from anthropogenic sources, with ΔT_man = 0.42 ± 0.11 °C.     

Probing the first stars and black holes in the early Universe with the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE)

A concept for a new space-based cosmology mission called the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE) is presented in this paper. DARE’s science objectives include: (1) When did the first stars form? (2) When did the first accreting black holes form? (3) When did Reionization begin? (4) What surprises does the end of the Dark Ages hold (e.g., Dark Matter decay)? DARE will use the highly-redshifted hyperfine 21-cm transition from neutral hydrogen to track the formation of the first luminous objects by their impact on the intergalactic medium during the end of the Dark Ages and during Cosmic Dawn (redshifts z = 11–35). It will measure the sky-averaged spin temperature of neutral hydrogen at the unexplored epoch 80–420 million years after the Big Bang, providing the first evidence of the earliest stars and galaxies to illuminate the cosmos and testing our models of galaxy formation. DARE’s approach is to measure the expected spectral features in the sky-averaged, redshifted 21-cm signal over a radio bandpass of 40–120 MHz. DARE orbits the Moon for a mission lifetime of 3 years and takes data above the lunar farside, the only location in the inner solar system proven to be free of human-generated radio frequency interference and any significant ionosphere. The science instrument is composed of a low frequency radiometer, including electrically-short, tapered, bi-conical dipole antennas, a receiver, and a digital spectrometer. The smooth frequency response of the antennas and the differential spectral calibration approach using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique will be applied to detect the weak cosmic 21-cm signal in the presence of the intense solar system and Galactic foreground emissions.     

Ionospheric response of equatorial and low latitude F-region during the intense geomagnetic storm on 24–25 August 2005

In this investigation, we present and discuss the response of the ionospheric F-region in the South American and East Asian sectors during an intense geomagnetic storm in August 2005. The geomagnetic storm studied reached a minimum Dst of −216 nT at 12:00 UT on 24 August. In this work ionospheric sounding data obtained of 24, 25, and 26 August 2005 at Palmas (PAL; 10.2° S, 48.2° W; dip latitude 6.6° S), São José dos Campos (SJC, 23.2° S, 45.9° W; dip latitude 17.6° S), Brazil, Ho Chi Minh City, (HCM; 10.5° N, 106.3° E; dip latitude 2.9° N), Vietnam, Okinawa (OKI; 26.3° N, 127.8° E; dip latitude 21.2° N), Japan, are presented. Also, the GPS observations obtained at different stations in the equatorial and low-latitude regions in the Brazilian sector are presented. On the night of 24–25 August 2005, the h′F variations show traveling ionospheric disturbances associated with Joule heating in the auroral zone from SJC to PAL. The foF2 variations show a positive storm phase on the night of 24–25 August at PAL and SJC during the recovery phase. Also, the GPS-VTEC observations at several stations in the Brazilian sector show a fairly similar positive storm phase on 24 August. During the fast decrease of Dst (between 10:00 and 11:00 UT) on 24 August, there is a prompt penetration of electric field of magnetospheric origin that result in abrupt increase (∼12:00 UT) in foF2 at PAL, SJC (Brazil) and OKI (Japan) and in VTEC at IMPZ, BOMJ, PARA and SMAR (Brazil). OKI showed strong oscillations of the F-region on the night 24 August resulted to the propagation of traveling atmospheric disturbances (TADs) by Joule heating in the auroral region. These effects result a strong positive observed at OKI station. During the daytime on 25 August, in the recovery phase, the foF2 observations showed positive ionospheric storm at HCM station. Some differences in the latitudinal response of the F-region is also observed in the South American and East Asian sectors.     

工件表面轮廓均方根斜率的光散射测量

描述并确定具有明显纹理粗糙表面均方根斜率的光散射技术(均方根斜率是联合表面轮廓高度和波长特性的混合参数)。称为散射光锥法(The scattered light-conemethod)的该技术是基于激光角散射检测阵列(DALLAS——Defector Array for Laser LishtAngular Scattering),它用于测量粗糙表面散射光角分布的仪器。均方根斜率是从DALLAS光散射图象的角宽得到的。一般可以发现角宽(即估计的均方根斜率)对光的入射角和散射角变化相当大时是不敏感的。这些结果与表面材料无关,并且对正弦和随机粗糙表面都是有效的。介绍了散射光锥法的测量原理、实验、数据分析和几点结论。     

Plasma effects of active ion beam injections in the ionosphere at rocket altitudes

Data from ARCS rocket ion beam injection experiments will be primarily discussed in this paper. There are three results from this series of active experiments that are of particular interest in space plasma physics. These are the transverse acceleration of ambient ions in the large beam volume, the scattering of beam ions near the release payload, and the possible acceleration of electrons very close to the plasma generator which produce intense high frequency waves. The ability of 100 ma ion beam injections into the upper E and F regions of the ionosphere to produce these phenomena appear to be related solely to the process by which the plasma release payload and the ion beam are neutralized. Since the electrons in the plasma release do not convect with the plasma ions, the neutralization of both the payload and beam must be accomplished by large field-aligned currents (milliamperes/square meter) which are very unstable to wave growth of various modes. Future work will concentrate on the wave production and wave-particle interactions that produce the plasma/energetic particle effects discussed in this paper and which have direct application to natural phenomena in the upper ionosphere and magnetosphere.     

Human exposure to large solar particle events in space.

Whenever energetic solar protons produced by solar particle events traverse bulk matter, they undergo various nuclear and atomic collision processes which significantly alter the physical characteristics and biologically important properties of their transported radiation fields. These physical interactions and their effect on the resulting radiation field within matter are described within the context of a recently developed deterministic, coupled neutron-proton space radiation transport computer code (BRYNTRN). Using this computer code, estimates of human exposure in interplanetary space, behind nominal (2 g/cm2) and storm shelter (20 g/cm2) thicknesses of aluminum shielding, are made for the large solar proton event of August 1972. Included in these calculations are estimates of cumulative exposures to the skin, ocular lens, and bone marrow as a function of time during the event. Risk assessment in terms of absorbed dose and dose equivalent is discussed for these organs. Also presented are estimates of organ exposures for hypothetical, worst-case flare scenarios. The rate of dose equivalent accumulation places this situation in an interesting region of dose rate between the very low values of usual concern in terrestrial radiation environments and the high dose rate values prevalent in radiation therapy.     

Biosphere 2 Test Module: a ground-based sunlight-driven prototype of a closed ecological life support system.

Constructed in 1986, the Biosphere 2 Test Module has been used since the end of that year for closed ecological systems experiments. It is the largest closed ecological facility ever built, with a sealed variable volume of some 480 cubic meters. It is built with a skin of steel spaceframes with double-laminated glass panels admitting about 65 percent Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR). The floor is of welded steel and there is an underground atmospheric connection via an air duct to a variable volume chamber ("lung") permitting expansion and contraction of the Test Module's air volume caused by changes in temperature and barometric pressure, which causes a slight positive pressure from inside the closed system to the outside thereby insuring that the very small leakage rate is outward. Several series of closed ecological system investigations have been carried out in this facility. One series of experiments investigated the dynamics of higher plants and associated soils with the atmosphere under varying light and temperature conditions. Another series of experiments included one human in the closed system for three, five and twenty-one days. During these experiments the Test Module had subsystems which completely recycled its water and atmosphere; all the human dietary needs were produced within the facility, and all wastes were recycled using a marsh plant/microbe system. Other experiments have examined the capability of individual component systems used, such as the soil bed reactors, to eliminate experimentally introduced trace gases. Analytic systems developed for these experiments include continuous monitors of eleven atmospheric gases in addition to the complete gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS) examinations of potable, waste system and irrigation water quality.     

Survival in extreme dryness and DNA-single-strand breaks.

A wide variety of organisms (the so-called "anhydrobiotes') is able to survive long periods of time in a state of utmost dehydration and can thus survive in extremely dry environments including artificially imposed or space vacuum. Known strategies of survival include the accumulation of certain polyols, especially disaccharides, which help prevent damage to membranes and proteins. Here we report that DNA in vacuum-dried spores is damaged to a very substantial degree by processes leading to DNA strand breaks. Most of these lesions are obviously repaired during germination, but extensive damage to DNA and enzymes after long exposure times (months to years) finally diminish the chances of survival.