Quantifying the role of solar radiative forcing over the 20th century

The 20th century temperature anomaly record is reproduced using an energy balance model, with a diffusive deep ocean. The model takes into account all the standard radiative forcings, and in addition the possibility of a non-thermal solar component. The model is parameterized and then optimized to produce the most likely values for the climate parameters and radiative forcings which reproduce the 20th century global warming. We find that the best fit is obtained with a negligible net feedback. We also show that a non-thermal solar component is necessarily present, indicating that the total solar contribution to the 20th century global warming, of ΔT_solar = 0.27 ± 0.07 °C, is much larger than can be expected from variation in the total solar irradiance alone. However, we also find that the largest contribution to the 20th century warming comes from anthropogenic sources, with ΔT_man = 0.42 ± 0.11 °C.     

Probing the first stars and black holes in the early Universe with the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE)

A concept for a new space-based cosmology mission called the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE) is presented in this paper. DARE’s science objectives include: (1) When did the first stars form? (2) When did the first accreting black holes form? (3) When did Reionization begin? (4) What surprises does the end of the Dark Ages hold (e.g., Dark Matter decay)? DARE will use the highly-redshifted hyperfine 21-cm transition from neutral hydrogen to track the formation of the first luminous objects by their impact on the intergalactic medium during the end of the Dark Ages and during Cosmic Dawn (redshifts z = 11–35). It will measure the sky-averaged spin temperature of neutral hydrogen at the unexplored epoch 80–420 million years after the Big Bang, providing the first evidence of the earliest stars and galaxies to illuminate the cosmos and testing our models of galaxy formation. DARE’s approach is to measure the expected spectral features in the sky-averaged, redshifted 21-cm signal over a radio bandpass of 40–120 MHz. DARE orbits the Moon for a mission lifetime of 3 years and takes data above the lunar farside, the only location in the inner solar system proven to be free of human-generated radio frequency interference and any significant ionosphere. The science instrument is composed of a low frequency radiometer, including electrically-short, tapered, bi-conical dipole antennas, a receiver, and a digital spectrometer. The smooth frequency response of the antennas and the differential spectral calibration approach using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique will be applied to detect the weak cosmic 21-cm signal in the presence of the intense solar system and Galactic foreground emissions.     

Energetic ion emission for active spacecraft control

Future space missions aiming at the accurate measurement of cold plasmas and DC to very low frequency electric fields will require that the potential of their conductive surfaces be actively controlled to be near the ambient plasma potential. In the near-Earth space these spacecraft are usually solar-cell powered; consequently, parts of their surface are most of the time exposed to solar photons. Outside the plasmasphere, a positive surface potential due the dominance of surface-emitted photoelectrons over ambient plasma electrons is to be expected. Photo- and ambient electrons largely determine the potential and positive values between a few Volts up to 100 V have been observed. Active ion emission is the obvious solution of this problem. A liquid metal ion emitter and a saddle field ion emitter are nearing the stage of flight unit fabrication. We will attempt to clamp the spacecraft potential to values close to the plasma potential. We present first results from vacuum chamber tests and describe the emission behaviour and characteristics of emitters producing, respectively, In⁺ and N₂⁺ beams with an energy of ≥ 5 keV.     

Human exposure to large solar particle events in space.

Whenever energetic solar protons produced by solar particle events traverse bulk matter, they undergo various nuclear and atomic collision processes which significantly alter the physical characteristics and biologically important properties of their transported radiation fields. These physical interactions and their effect on the resulting radiation field within matter are described within the context of a recently developed deterministic, coupled neutron-proton space radiation transport computer code (BRYNTRN). Using this computer code, estimates of human exposure in interplanetary space, behind nominal (2 g/cm2) and storm shelter (20 g/cm2) thicknesses of aluminum shielding, are made for the large solar proton event of August 1972. Included in these calculations are estimates of cumulative exposures to the skin, ocular lens, and bone marrow as a function of time during the event. Risk assessment in terms of absorbed dose and dose equivalent is discussed for these organs. Also presented are estimates of organ exposures for hypothetical, worst-case flare scenarios. The rate of dose equivalent accumulation places this situation in an interesting region of dose rate between the very low values of usual concern in terrestrial radiation environments and the high dose rate values prevalent in radiation therapy.     

Mapping lunar surface chemistry: New prospects with the Chandrayaan-2 Large Area Soft X-ray Spectrometer (CLASS)

Surface chemistry of airless bodies in the solar system can be derived from remote X-ray spectral measurements from an orbiting spacecraft. X-rays from planetary surfaces are excited primarily by solar X-rays. Several experiments in the past have used this technique of X-ray fluorescence for deriving abundances of the major rock forming elements. The Chandrayaan-2 orbiter carries an X-ray fluorescence experiment named CLASS that is designed based on results from its predecessor C1XS flown on Chandrayaan-1. We discuss the new aspects of lunar science that can be potentially achieved with CLASS.     

Instantaneous BeiDou–GPS attitude determination: A performance analysis

The advent of modernized and new global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) has enhanced the availability of satellite based positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) solutions. Specifically, it increases redundancy and yields operational back-up or independence in case of failure or unavailability of one system. Among existing GNSS, the Chinese BeiDou system (BDS) is being developed and will consist of geostationary (GEO) satellites, inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) satellites, and medium-Earth-orbit (MEO) satellites. In this contribution, a BeiDou–GPS robustness analysis is carried out for instantaneous, unaided attitude determination.     

Association of optical tracklets from a geosynchronous belt survey via the direct Bayesian admissible region approach

The direct Bayesian admissible region approach is an a priori state free measurement association and initial orbit determination technique for optical tracks. In this paper, we test a hybrid approach that appends a least squares estimator to the direct Bayesian method on measurements taken at the Zimmerwald Observatory of the Astronomical Institute at the University of Bern. Over half of the association pairs agreed with conventional geometric track correlation and least squares techniques. The remaining pairs cast light on the fundamental limits of conducting tracklet association based solely on dynamical and geometrical information.     

Stochastic processes for line shapes and intensities

Stochastic processes provide flexible and fast calculations for modeling dynamical interactions between an atom and charged particles. We use a stochastic renewal process for the plasma microfield being the cause of Stark broadening. The accuracy and improvement possibilities of Lyman profiles calculations with a renewal process are analyzed by comparing to ab initio simulations for ion broadening only. Stochastic processes may also be applied to out of equilibrium plasmas. We present our first results for the effect of Langmuir waves on a line broadened by electrons only, and for the changes of atomic populations submitted to strong temperature fluctuations.     

Method for the prediction of the effective dose equivalent to the crew of the International Space Station

This paper describes a methodology for assessing the pre-mission exposure of space crew aboard the International Space Station (ISS) in terms of an effective dose equivalent. In this approach, the PHITS Monte Carlo code was used to assess the particle transport of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and trapped radiation for solar maximum and minimum conditions through an aluminum shield thickness. From these predicted spectra, and using fluence-to-dose conversion factors, a scaling ratio of the effective dose equivalent rate to the ICRU ambient dose equivalent rate at a 10 mm depth was determined. Only contributions from secondary neutrons, protons, and alpha particles were considered in this analysis.