Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

Lower and upper limits to comet p/halley solid material loss rate

A radiative hydrodynamic model of comet P/Halley is used to investigate quantitatively the constraints imposed onto the Comet loss rate in solids by both the in-situ data and the remote sensing data. In particular, for the first time, the in-situ data are used to fit composite spectra extending from near-IR wavelengths to the microwave region. Also, for the first time the uncertainty affecting the ejection velocity of large grains is taken into account. The results suggest that only future rendez-vous studies of the grain density in the vicinity of a comet would be able to provide definitely reliable values of the comet loss rate.     

EUV emission from normal galaxies

Using data from the Wide Field Camera EUV all-sky survey, we have established upper limits to the EUV flux from a sample of 30 bright, nearby, non-active spiral galaxies. These galaxies were chosen to be those most likely to be detected in the EUV on the basis of (i) low interstellar absorption within our own galaxy, (ii) brightness in other wavebands, (iii) high star formation activity, and (iv) proximity. The derived EUV upper limits are restrictive, and establish for the first time that the EUV flux escaping from galaxies does not constitute a major component of their bolometric luminosity, and in particular that it cannot be the sink for the energy injected into the interstellar medium by supernova explosions, as had been suggested following the failure to detect this power in the X-ray band.     

The INFRARED SPACE OBSERVATORY (ISO)

The INFRARED SPACE OBSERVATORY (ISO), a project of the European Space Agency (ESA), will make various astronomical observations in the wavelength range of 2 to 200 μm. Two-thirds of its observing time will be available to guest observers via the traditional route of proposal submission. ISO will be launched in 1995 by an Ariane 4 from Kourou (Guyana) and be brought into a very elongated orbit with a 24hr period of which 16 hr can be used for astronomical observations. The payload module is essentially a large cryostat with a tank that will be filled with over 2000 litres of superfluid helium to keep the instruments cold (2 to 4 K) during an expected lifetime of 18 months. Inside the dewar, there is a Ritchey-Chretien telescope with a primary mirror of diameter 60cm. Four instruments, each provided by a different PI consortium, share the ISO focal plane. These instruments are : a photometer, a camera and two spectrometers — one for the wavelength range 2–45 μm and the other for 45–180 μm.     

Large lithium ion batteries for aerospace and aircraft applications

Eagle-Picher Energy Products (EPEP) has been manufacturing and testing large lithium ion cells (up to 100-Ah) for several years. Recently, work has focused on the testing of different chemistries at variable temperatures and designing and fabricating 100-Ah cylindrical cells. For the aircraft application the largest concern is irreversible capacity loss at elevated temperatures (70°C). In contrast, for the aerospace application shelf-life and cycle life are critical. EPEP has found that the major contributor to the loss in low temperature performance due to high temperature testing, was the positive electrode. EPEP discuss recent results of variable temperature cycling and 100-Ah cell performance     

Reconfigurable NDI controller using inertial sensor failuredetection & isolation

A modified derivation of nonlinear dynamic inversion provides the theoretical underpinnings for a reconfigurable control law for aircraft that have suffered combinations of actuator failures, missing effector surfaces, and aerodynamic changes. The approach makes use of acceleration feedback to extract information pertaining to any aerodynamic change and thus does not require a complete aerodynamic model of the aircraft. The control law does require feedback of effector positions to accommodate actuator dynamics. Both accelerometer and rate gyro failure detection and isolation (FDI) systems are implemented, allowing up to three independent failures for each FDI system as long as they are in different axes. Nonlinear simulation results show that the FDI systems improve the robustness to accelerometer/rate gyro uncertainties. An advanced tailless aircraft model is used to demonstrate the concepts. The simulation includes accelerometer and rate gyro noise and bias, failures due to accelerometers, rate gyros, and actuators, and modeled missing surfaces that cause airplane aerodynamic changes     

Observer-type Kalman innovation filter for uncertain linear systems

An observer-type of Kalman innovation filtering algorithm to find a practically implementable "best" Kalman filter, and such an algorithm based on the evolutionary programming (EP) optima-search technique, are proposed, for linear discrete-time systems with time-invariant unknown-but-hounded plant and noise uncertainties. The worst-case parameter set from the stochastic uncertain system represented by the interval form with respect to the implemented "best" filter is also found in this work for demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed filtering scheme. The new EP-based algorithm utilizes the global optima-searching capability of EP to find the optimal Kalman filter and state estimates at every iteration, which include both the best possible worst case Interval and the optimal nominal trajectory of the Kalman filtering estimates of the system state vectors. Simulation results are included to show that the new algorithm yields more accurate estimates and is less conservative as compared with other related robust filtering schemes     

Extracting multiple frequencies from phase-only data

The problem of extracting multiple frequencies from phase-only data is addressed. Multiple frequency estimation is accomplished by reconstructing the Fourier transform of the complex-valued time signal and then finding peaks in the frequency domain. We present a set of conditions under which a discrete-time complex sequence can be completely specified by its phase-only information. Two candidate multiple frequency estimation schemes are introduced, one based on a closed-form least-squares inverse, the other an iterative reconstruction algorithm. The uniqueness of the closed-form solution and the convergence of the iterative scheme have been proven under certain conditions. Several examples are given, including the case where the phase is quantized as would happen in an analog-to-digital (A/D) converter. Extensions to the multidimensional case, and to the case of real-part only reconstruction are straightforward.     

Electric currents induced inside biological cells by geomagnetic and atmospheric phenomena.

An increasing number of studies have appeared in the last ten years indicating that some pathologies may correlate with geomagnetic activity and cosmic rays. However a physical mechanism binding both phenomena has not been proposed. In the present work we obtain the amplitude of the magnetic fields at different frequencies, that may induce inside biological cells currents of the same magnitude of the currents generated by the cells themselves. We compare these values with the wave amplitudes produced in geomagnetic and atmospheric phenomena, and found that micropulsations, whistlers and lightning are capable of produce the same or larger values.     

The Freja ultraviolet imager

Auroral images acquired by satellite instrumentation have proven to be a crucial component of the scientific equiry into the physical processes of the Earth's magnetosphere. TheFreja mission provided an opportunity to extend these measurements into the temporal and spatial regime commonly associated with ground-based optical imagers. Employing the basic procedure used successfully in theViking program allowed image repetition rates of 6 s to be achieved with simultaneous exposure of all pixels within the field-of-view. Typical exposure times of 0.3 s required development of an improved image intensifier system and operational requirements resulted in image formats covering approximately one-third of a spin. Simultaneously exposing two broad-band UV cameras, the instrument generates in its normal operational mode 264.6 kbytes per image pair. Results from initial operations confirm the design approach and suggest such imagers can be routinely included on challenging low cost missions such asFreja.