Modulation of Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere From Solar Minimum to Maximum: a Theoretical Perspective

The modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere seems to be dominated by four major mechanisms: convection, diffusion, drifts (gradient, curvature and current sheet), and adiabatic energy losses. In this regard the global structure of the solar wind, the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), the current sheet (HCS), and that of the heliosphere itself play major roles. Individually, the four mechanisms are well understood, but in combination, the complexity increases significantly especially their evolvement with time - as a function of solar activity. The Ulysses observations contributed significantly during the past solar minimum modulation period to establish the relative importance of these major mechanisms, leading to renewed interest in developing more sophisticated numerical models, and in the underlying physics, e.g., what determines the diffusion tensor. With increased solar activity, the relative contributions of the mentioned mechanisms change, but how they change and what causes these changes over an 11-year solar cycle is not well understood. It can therefore be expected that present and forthcoming observations during solar maximum activity will again produce very important insights into the causes of long-term modulation. In this paper the basic theory of solar modulation is reviewed for galactic cosmic rays. The influence of the Ulysses observations on the development of the basic theory and numerical models are discussed, especially those that have challenged the theory and models. Model-based predictions are shown for what might be encountered during the next solar minimum. Lastly, modulation theory and modelling are discussed for periods of maximum solar activity when a global reorganization of the HMF, and the HCS, occurs. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Langmuir Turbulence and Solar Radio Bursts

Langmuir waves and turbulence resulting from an electron beam-plasma instability play a fundamental role in the generation of solar radio bursts. We report recent theoretical advances in nonlinear dynamics of Langmuir waves. First, starting from the generalized Zakharov equations, we study the parametric excitation of solar radio bursts at the fundamental plasma frequency driven by a pair of oppositely propagating Langmuir waves with different wave amplitudes. Next, we briefly discuss the emergence of chaos in the Zakharov equations. We point out that chaos can lead to turbulence in the source regions of solar radio emissions. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Blind adaptive decision fusion for distributed detection

We consider the problem of decision fusion in a distributed detection system. In this system, each detector makes a binary decision based on its own observation, and then communicates its binary decision to a fusion center. The objective of the fusion center is to optimally fuse the local decisions in order to minimize the final error probability. To implement such an optimal fusion center, the performance parameters of each detector (i.e., its probabilities of false alarm and missed detection) as well as the a priori probabilities of the hypotheses must be known. However, in practical applications these statistics may be unknown or may vary with time. We develop a recursive algorithm that approximates these unknown values on-line. We then use these approximations to adapt the fusion center. Our algorithm is based on an explicit analytic relation between the unknown probabilities and the joint probabilities of the local decisions. Under the assumption that the local observations are conditionally independent, the estimates given by our algorithm are shown to be asymptotically unbiased and converge to their true values at the rate of O(1/k/sup 1/2/) in the rms error sense, where k is the number of iterations. Simulation results indicate that our algorithm is substantially more reliable than two existing (asymptotically biased) algorithms, and performs at least as well as those algorithms when they work.     

Radial and meridional trends in solar wind thermal electron temperature and anisotropy: Ulysses

Ulysses plasma measurement from 1.15 to 5.31 AU and from S6.4° to S48.3° solar latitude are used to assess the trends in the solar wind thermal electron temperature and anisotropy. Improved spacecraft potential corrections and data products have been incorporated. The radial temperature gradient is steeper than in previous determinations, but flatter than adiabatic. When normalized to 1 AU, temperature decrease with increasing latitude. Little change in the average thermal anisotropy has been seen during the mission.     

Solar wind corotating stream interaction regions out of the ecliptic plane: Ulysses

Ulysses plasma observations reveal that the forward shocks that commonly bound the leading edges of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) beyond 2 AU from the Sun at low heliographic latitudes nearly disappeared at a latitude of S26°. On the other hand, the reverse shocks that commonly bound the trailing edges of the CIRs were observed regularly up to S41.5°, but became weaker with increasing latitude. Only three CIR shocks have been observed poleward of S41.5°; all of these were weak reverse shocks. The above effects are a result of the forward waves propagating to lower heliographic latitudes and the reverse waves to higher latitudes with increasing heliocentric distance. These observational results are in excellent agreement with the predictions of a global model of solar wind flows that originate in a simple tilted-dipole geometry back at the Sun.     

The Plasma Environment of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko Throughout the Rosetta Main Mission

The plasma environment of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, the Rosetta mission target comet, is explored over a range of heliocentric distances throughout the mission: 3.25 AU (Rosetta instruments on), 2.7 AU (Lander down), 2.0 AU, and 1.3 AU (perihelion). Because of the large range of gas production rates, we have used both a fluid-based magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model as well as a semi-kinetic hybrid particle model to study the plasma distribution. We describe the variation in plasma environs over the mission as well as the differences between the two modeling approaches under different conditions. In addition, we present results from a field aligned, two-stream transport electron model of the suprathermal electron flux when the comet is near perihelion.     

Design of a Correlator for Real-Time Video Comparisons

The problem of locating a reference image within a larger image using a correlation technique is discussed. Although the particular application discussed is that of locating a reference image obtained from one video sensor or a photograph, within the larger field of view obtained from a second video sensor in real time (i.e., at the TV field rate), the results are general and useful for a number of applications. The tradeoffs necessary to obtain real time correlat are discussed and their effect on correlation accuracy is given.     

The detection of energetic cometary and solar particles by the EPONA instrument on the Giotto mission

EPONA is an energetic particle detector system incorporating totally depleted silicon surface barrier layer detectors. Active and passive background shielding will be employed and, by applying various techniques, particles of different species, including electrons, protons, alpha particles and pick-up ions of cometary origin may be detected over a wide spectrum of energies extending from the tens of KeV into the MeV range.

The instrument can operate in two modes namely (a) in a cruise phase or storage mode and (b) in a real time mode. During the real time mode, observations at high spatial (octosectoring) and temporal (0.5s) resolution in the cometary environment permit studies to be made of accelerated particles at the bow shock and/or in the tail of the comet. In conjunction with magnetic field measurements on board Giotto, observations of energetic electrons and their anisotropies can determine whether the magnetic field lines in the cometary tail are open or closed. Further, the absorption of low energy solar particles in the cometary atmosphere can be measured and such data would provide an integral value of the pertaining gas and dust distribution. Solar particle background measurements during encounter may also be used to correct the measurements of other spacecraft borne instruments potentially vulnerable to such radiation.

Solar particle flux measurements, obtained during the cruise phase will, when combined with simultaneous observations made by other spacecraft at different heliographic longitudes, provide information concerning solar particle propagation in the corona and in interplanetary space.     

Problems with the concept of the inflationary universe

The picture of an exponentially increasing, “inflationary” phase of the early universe (Guth 1981; Linde 1982; Albrecht and Steinhardt 1982) may point the way to an understanding of our present universe without reference to extremely specific initial conditions. The model rests, however, on several assumptions which deserve critical examination.     

Solar UV irradiance variation during cycles 22 and 23

The Solar Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SUSIM) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) has been measuring solar UV irradiances since October 1991, a period which includes the decline of solar cycle 22 followed by the rise of cycle 23. Daily solar measurements include scans over the wavelength range 115–410 nm at 1.1 nm resolution. As expected, the measured time series of UV irradiances exhibit strong periodicities in solar cycle and solar rotation. For all wavelengths, the UV irradiance time series are similar to that of the Mg II core-to-wing ratio. During solar cycle 22, the irradiance of the strong Ly- line varied by more than a factor of two. The peak-to-peak irradiance variation declined with increasing wavelength, reaching 10% just below the Al edge at 208 nm. Between the Al edge and 250 nm the variation was 6–7%. Above 250 nm, the variation declines further until none is observed above 290 nm. Preliminary results for the first portion of cycle 23 indicate that the far UV below the Al edge is rising at about the same rate as the Mg II index while the irradiances in the Ly- emission line and for wavelengths longer than the Al edge are rising more slowly — even after accounting for the lower level of activity of cycle 23.