Solar activity prediction studies and services in NAOC

Solar activity prediction services started in 1960’s in National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC). As one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China) was set up in 1990’s. Solar Activity Prediction Center (SAPC), as one of the four sub-centers of RWC-China, is located in NAOC. Solar activity prediction studies and services in NAOC cover short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecast of solar activities. Nowadays, certain prediction models, such as solar X-ray flare model, solar proton event model, solar 10 cm radio flux model, have been established for the practical prediction services. Recently, more and more physical analyses are introduced in the studies of solar activity prediction, such as the magnetic properties of solar active regions and magnetic structure of solar atmosphere. Besides traditional statistics algorithms, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence techniques, such as Support Vector Machine (SVM) method, are employed in the establishment of forecast models. A Web-based integrated platform for solar activity data sharing and forecast distribution is under construction.     

Passive target tracking using maximum likelihood estimation

Estimation of target trajectory from passive sonar bearings and frequency measurements in the presence of multivariate normally distributed noise, with unknown inhomogeneous general covariance, is modeled as a nonlinear multiresponse parameter estimation problem. It is shown that maximum likelihood estimation in this case is identical to optimizing a determinant criterion which has a concise form and contains no elements of unknown covariance matrix. A Gauss-Newton type algorithm using only the first-order derivatives of the model function and a new convergence criterion, is presented to implement such estimation. The simulation results demonstrate that performance of the maximum likelihood estimation method with the above noise model is superior to that with the traditional noise assumption     

箭遥时间指令参数实时处理方法研究

火箭遥测数据的实时挑点处理结果是发射中心实时监视火箭飞行状态的重要依据,尤其是时间指令参数的处理结果为判别运载火箭发动机点火、关机、星箭分离等关键事件发生与否提供主要依据。根据某型号运载火箭时间指令参数在遥测帧格式中的波道和码位分配,分析目前箭遥时间指令实时处理方法存在的缺陷,提出"增加判别帧数,充分利用冗余信息",通过分析"时序指令"与"时串指令"间存在的"关联"建立"关联知识库",使用知识库进行辅助判别,实现不错判、不漏判的改进设想。     

三角带失效概率模型

通过失效物理分析，考虑了挠性传动件-三角带的受力和变形．剖析了其失效形式．根据其特殊的失效物理背景推导了数学模型，提出宜采用最弱环模型，大样本试验证实了上述分析。     

模具约束条件对H96黄铜双脊矩形管E弯截面变形的影响

 双脊矩形管的绕弯成形受内外侧模具的共同约束,不同模具约束下管坯的受力不同,使得其截面变形情况也不相同,而截面变形严重地影响弯管件的成形质量和使用性能。因此,基于ABAQUS有限元平台建立了双脊矩形管E弯成形三维有限元模型,并通过实验验证了模型的可靠性。采用所建模型,研究了内外侧模具约束条件对双脊矩形管E弯截面变形的影响规律,发现当只有内腹板脊槽受约束时,内腹板脊槽的内缩变形可得到较好的控制,而其他部位的变形则有增大的趋势;当只有外腹板脊槽受约束时,内腹板脊槽宽度变形基本不发生变化,而其他部位的变形则有减小的趋势;当内外腹板脊槽均受约束时,可较好地控制双脊矩形管E弯过程中的截面变形。芯头个数对整管截面高度、宽度、外腹板脊槽宽度与两脊槽底部的间距的变形影响较大,但对内腹板脊槽宽度的变形影响不显著。     

一种研究圆柱度目标函数单谷性的新方法

提出了一种研究圆柱目标函数单谷性的新方法，圆柱度目标函数单谷性的问题目前研究得还少，而弄清楚圆柱度目标函数是否是单谷函数对于用优化原理正确地计算其极值是非常重要的。     

Flight Record Of Long March Series Of Launch Vehicles

The world has been shocked and saddened by news of the earthquake in Sichuan Province on May 12,2008.After Wenchuan was hit by a 8.0 Richter scale earthquake,the Xi'an Satellite Control Centre (XSCC) immediately initiated an emergency response program to ensure that 15 Chinese satellites in space could provide proper support for the rescue and relief operations in the quake-stricken Sichuan Province in the southwest.     

SSME实时振动监测系统在先进发动机健康管理中的应用

介绍了由马歇尔太空飞行中心(MSFC)开发的实时振动监测系统(RTVMS)的工作能力,该系统用于航天飞机主发动机(SSME)高速涡轮泵振动分析和减轻破坏。在斯坦尼斯太空中心(SSC)的 SSME 静态试车中正在使用 RTVMS 系统,表明已具有了在发动机工作过程中进行实时振动分析和健康监测的能力。由这些数据可评估高速运转的涡轮泵主要健康指标的离散谱信号,以减缓潜在的灾难性破坏。监测潜在故障的指标可使 SSME 项目能够开发一种基于振动分析的数字化发动机健康监测系统,从而在航天飞机飞行计划历史上首次实现了一种发动机高压涡轮泵振动飞行红线预警。     

A modern robust approach to remotely estimate chlorophyll in coastal and inland zones

The chlorophyll concentration of a water body is an important proxy for representing the phytoplankton biomass. Its estimation from multi or hyper-spectral remote sensing data in natural waters is generally achieved by using (i) the waveband ratioing in two or more bands in the blue-green or (ii) by using a combination of the radiance peak position and magnitude in the red-near-infrared (NIR) spectrum. The blue-green ratio algorithms have been extensively used with satellite ocean color data to investigate chlorophyll distributions in open ocean and clear waters and the application of red-NIR algorithms is often restricted to turbid productive water bodies. These issues present the greatest obstacles to our ability to formulate a modern robust method suitable for quantitative assessments of the chlorophyll concentration in a diverse range of water types. The present study is focused to investigate the normalized water-leaving radiance spectra in the visible and NIR region and propose a robust algorithm (Generalized ABI, GABI algorithm) for chlorophyll concentration retrieval based on Algal Bloom index (ABI) which separates phytoplankton signals from other constituents in the water column. The GABI algorithm is validated using independent in-situ data from various regional to global waters and its performance is further evaluated by comparison with the blue-green waveband ratios and red-NIR algorithms. The results revealed that GABI yields significantly more accurate chlorophyll concentrations (with uncertainties less than 13.5%) and remains more stable in different waters types when compared with the blue-green waveband ratios and red-NIR algorithms. The performance of GABI is further demonstrated using HICO images from nearshore turbid productive waters and MERIS and MODIS-Aqua images from coastal and offshore waters of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and East China Sea.