Solar flare forecasting model supported with artificial neural network techniques

Nowadays operational models for solar activity forecasting are still based on the statistical relationship between solar activity and solar magnetic field evolution. In order to set up this relationship, many parameters have been proposed to be the measures. Conventional measures are based on the sunspot group classification which provides limited information from sunspots. For this reason, new measures based on solar magnetic field observations are proposed and a solar flare forecasting model supported with an artificial neural network is introduced. This model is equivalent to a person with a long period of solar flare forecasting experience.     

Neoplastic transformation of hamster embryo cells by heavy ions

We have studied the induction of morphological transformation of Syrian hamster embryo cells by low doses of heavy ions with different linear energy transfer (LET), ranging from 13 to 400 keV/μm. Exponentially growing cells were irradiated with ¹²C or ²⁸Si ion beams generated by the Heavy Ion Medical Accelerator in Chiba (HIMAC), inoculated to culture dishes, and transformed colonies were identified when the cells were densely stacked and showed a crisscross pattern. Over the LET range examined, the frequency of transformation induced by the heavy ions increased sharply at very low doses no greater than 5 cGy. The relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the heavy ions relative to 250 kVp X-rays showed an initial increase with LET, reaching a maximum value of about 7 at 100 keV/μm, and then decreased with the further increase in LET. Thus, we confirmed that high LET heavy ions are significantly more effective than X-rays for the induction of in vitro cell transformation.     

Flow separation control on swept wing with nanosecond pulse driven DBD plasma actuators

A 15° swept wing with dielectric barrier discharge plasma actuator is designed.Experimental study of flow separation control with nanosecond pulsed plasma actuation is performed at flow velocity up to 40 m/s. The effects of the actuation frequency and voltage on the aerodynamic performance of the swept wing are evaluated by the balanced force and pressure measurements in the wind tunnel. At last, the performances on separation flow control of the three types of actuators with plane and saw-toothed exposed electrodes are compared. The optimal actuation frequency for the flow separation control on the swept wing is detected, namely the reduced frequency is 0.775, which is different from 2-D airfoil separation control. There exists a threshold voltage for the low swept wing flow control. Before the threshold voltage, as the actuation voltage increases, the control effects become better. The maximum lift is increased by 23.1% with the drag decreased by 22.4% at 14°, compared with the base line. However, the best effects are obtained on actuator with plane exposed electrode in the low-speed experiment and the abilities of saw-toothed actuators are expected to be verified under high-speed conditions.     

A strategic flight conflict avoidance approach based on a memetic algorithm

Conflict avoidance （CA） plays a crucial role in guaranteeing the airspace safety. The cur- rent approaches, mostly focusing on a short-term situation which eliminates conflicts via local adjust- ment, cannot provide a global solution. Recently, long-term conflict avoidance approaches, which are proposed to provide solutions via strategically planning traffic flow from a global view, have attracted more attentions. With consideration of the situation in China, there are thousands of flights per day and the air route network is large and complex, which makes the long-term problem to be a large-scale combinatorial optimization problem with complex constraints. To minimize the risk of premature convergence being faced by current approaches and obtain higher quality solutions, in this work, we present an effective strategic framework based on a memetic algorithm （MA）, which can markedly improve search capability via a combination of population-based global search and local improve- ments made by individuals. In addition, a specially designed local search operator and an adaptive local search frequency strategy are proposed to improve the solution quality. Furthermore, a fast genetic algorithm （GA） is presented as the global optimization method. Empirical studies using real traffic data of the Chinese air route network and daily flight plans show that our approach outper- formed the existing approaches including the GA .based approach and the cooperative coevolution based approach as well as some well-known memetic algorithm based approaches.     

Orbit determination of BDS-3 satellite based on regional ground tracking station and inter-satellite link observations

The BeiDou global navigation satellite system (BDS-3) has established the Ka-band inter-satellite link (ISL) to realize a two-way ranging function between satellites, which provides a new observation technology for the orbit determination of BDS-3 satellites. Therefore, this study presents a BDS satellite orbit determination model based on ground tracking station (GTS) observations and ISL ranging observations firstly to analyze the impact of the ISL ranging observations on the orbit determination of BDS-3 satellites. Subsequently, considering the data fusion processing, the variance component estimation (VCE) algorithm is applied to the parameter estimation process of the satellite orbit determination. Finally, using the measured data from China’s regional GTS observations and BDS-3 ISL ranging observations, the effects of ISL ranging observations on the orbit determination accuracy of BDS-3 satellites are analyzed. Moreover, the impact of the VCE algorithm on the fusion data processing is evaluated from the aspects of orbit determination accuracy, Ka-band hardware delay parameter stability, and ISL ranging observation residuals. The results show that for China’s regional GTSs, the addition of BDS-3 ISL ranging observations can significantly improve the orbit determination accuracy of BDS-3 satellites. The observed orbit determination accuracy of satellite radial component is improved from 48 cm to 4.1 cm. In addition, when the initial weight ratio between GTS observations and ISL ranging observations is not appropriate, the various indicators which include orbit determination accuracy, ISL hardware delay, and ISL observation residuals were observed to have improved after the adjustment of the VCE algorithm. These results validate the effectiveness of the VCE algorithm for the fusion data processing of the GTS observations and ISL ranging observations.     

Solar activity prediction studies and services in NAOC

Solar activity prediction services started in 1960’s in National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC). As one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China) was set up in 1990’s. Solar Activity Prediction Center (SAPC), as one of the four sub-centers of RWC-China, is located in NAOC. Solar activity prediction studies and services in NAOC cover short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecast of solar activities. Nowadays, certain prediction models, such as solar X-ray flare model, solar proton event model, solar 10 cm radio flux model, have been established for the practical prediction services. Recently, more and more physical analyses are introduced in the studies of solar activity prediction, such as the magnetic properties of solar active regions and magnetic structure of solar atmosphere. Besides traditional statistics algorithms, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence techniques, such as Support Vector Machine (SVM) method, are employed in the establishment of forecast models. A Web-based integrated platform for solar activity data sharing and forecast distribution is under construction.     

旋转阀式脉冲爆震发动机非稳态进气过程数值模拟

利用动态网格技术对旋转阀式脉冲爆震发动机非稳态进气过程进行了数值模拟,获得了旋转阀关闭过程中爆震管内的流动特性及扰流器对流动特性的影响规律.结果表明:旋转阀关闭过程中在其后的爆震管内产生回流区,随着关闭区域的增大回流区长度增大,但不会超过3倍的管径.安装了扰流器后,回流区被局限在旋转阀与第一个扰流片之间.在旋转阀关闭过程中第二片扰流器后气流湍流扰动强度与分布规律没有受到太大的影响,旋转阀完全关闭后,爆震管内的强湍流迅速衰减,且整个爆震管内的湍流强度趋于一致.     

磁静日期间中国大陆地区外源弱磁场研究

利用第四代地磁场综合模型CM4, 研究了中国大陆地区1960-2000年磁静日期间地磁外源弱磁场的变化情况, 计算并分析了外源场中的电离层感应场、环形场以及磁层感应场的分布和变化. 结果显示, 北向分量X的磁层感应场强度总体呈先增加后减少的趋势, 共减少了约7.3nT; 东向分量Y的磁层感应场强度呈先减少后增加的趋势, 共增加了约0.8nT; 垂直分量Z的磁层感应场强度呈先增加后减少的趋势, 共增加了约5.5nT. 三个分量的电离层感应场以及环形场变化幅度很小, 其分布在1960-1970和1970-1980年, 1980-1990 和1990-2000年呈现正负互相变换的现象, 认为该现象可能与太阳11年活动周期有关. 最后对弱磁场随时间变化的结果进行了分析说明.     

末敏弹减速运动和稳态扫描段运动特性的研究

对末敏弹这一全新反坦克武器在减速运动和稳态扫描段的运动特性进行了仔细的研究。恰当地引入了降落伞的附加质量和附加惯性矩,完整地分析了伞体和弹体所受的外力和外力矩,建立了由伞体和弹体组成的末敏弹系统二体运动模型。编制了完整的计算程序。给出了末敏弹扫描角速度、扫描角和扫描曲线随时间的变化,以及扫描覆盖区随高度的变化。计算结果与试验结果有很好的一致性。该模型可进一步用于末敏弹系统的弹道修正、参数优化和弹道模拟。     

推力矢量控制系统的参考模型鲁棒控制研究

本文针对典型的推力矢量电波位置伺服系统中存在的参数摄动和加性扰动，采用模型参考鲁棒控制方法（ＭＲＲＣ），使系统对扰动不敏感。ＭＲＲＣ方法仅需要已知系统的输入输出信息，而不必采用全状态反馈，同时比模型参考自适应控制（ＭＲＡＣ）算法简单。文中通过理论分析和必要的公式推导，证明了系统是渐进稳定的，并且仿真结果也验证了ＭＲＲＣ的有效理论分析和必要的公式推导，证明了系统是渐进稳定的，并且仿真结果也验证了ＭＲ