Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation.

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.     

J. F. Lemaire,and K. I. Gringauz,with contributions from D. L. Carpenter and V. Bassolo,The Earth's Plasmasphere

Space Science Reviews -     

Selection of a Charging Choke Damping Network

The availability and ease of programming for many computer aided design (CAD) languages permits their use where, formerly, bread boarding or analytical means would have been employed to solve specific circuit analysis problems. One of many available CAD languages is the electronic circuit analysis program (ECAP). The ECAP language is divided into three sections, dc-analysis. acanalysis, and transient analysis. The three modes of ECAP together with fast computer access provide a helpful tool for the design engineer. Following is a typical problem of oscillatory transients encountered in line-type modulators. The solution to the problem is a model of sufficient correlation with the observed oscillation as an aid to find a network which will critically damp the oscillation.     

Modeling stress strain state of thin shells with a degenerating domain

We consider a possibility to apply the method of analyzing the complex-shaped shells, proposed in [1], for determining the stress strain state of thin shells with a degenerating domain. The results of numerical calculations are presented.     

Arnab Rai Choudhuri,The Physics of Fluids and Plasmas: An Introduction for Astrophysicists

Space Science Reviews -     

Amplification of the influence of solar flux variations on the winter stratosphere by planetary waves

Recent observational evidence has suggested that variations in solar activity may affect winter stratospheric polar ozone and temperature levels. The paucity of direct sunlight available during this season points strongly to a dynamical mechanism. We have carried out several large ensemble experiments within the middle atmosphere and the coupled middle atmosphere and lower thermosphere to simulate the radiative/dynamical coupling via planetary waves for a range of solar fluxes. In the former case, the model response in the winter stratosphere was linear and of the order of the summer stratopause forcing, whilst in the latter, the level of correlation in the winter stratosphere remained high, but was diluted over a wider volume. The inclusion of the upper atmosphere enhanced the winter polar stratospheric response by a factor of three.     

Automatic Target Recognition: Some Considerations

Machine analysis of aerial reconnaissance data is desirable. New acquisition techniques, equipment, and sensors, plus a growing demand for rapidly obtained, accurate information necessitate machine performance of tasks presently accomplished by observers and interpreters. Many of these tasks can be described as pattern recognition or information processing functions. This paper discusses significant problems encountered when attempting to identify objects or regions automatically from aerial photography. Problems include sensor distortions, variations in target environment, and concepts of design and ?teaching? of an actual device. Operational requirements such as processing speed and flexibility restrict the types of solutions available. Approaches to target recognition with relative merits and shortcomings are presented; these include shape correlation, feature extraction, and image quantization. The effect of mission requirements on system parameters is discussed. A bibliography is included.     

Stellar infrared astronomy with EDISON

In this review the IR emission from circumstellar material is discussed, both of ionized gas and dust grains, and the astrophysical information that can be extracted from such observations. Some emphasis is placed on the possibilities of stellar IR astronomy using a large space-borne telescope, especially with respect to the much better spatial and spectral resolution of such a telescope compared to the current generation of ground-based and space IR telescopes.