A Delphi-Based Framework for systems architecting of in-orbit exploration infrastructure for human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit

The current debate in the U.S. Human Spaceflight Program focuses on the development of the next generation of man-rated heavy lift launch vehicles. While launch vehicle systems are of critical importance for future exploration, a comprehensive analysis of the entire exploration infrastructure is required to avoid costly pitfalls at early stages of the design process. This paper addresses this need by presenting a Delphi-Based Systems Architecting Framework for integrated architectural analysis of future in-orbit infrastructure for human space exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit. The paper is structured in two parts.     

Climatology of ionospheric scintillations and TEC trend over the Ugandan region

This study presents results on the investigation of the diurnal, monthly and seasonal variability of Total Electron Content (TEC), phase (_σΦ${\sigma }_{\mathrm{\Phi }}$) and amplitude (S4) scintillation indices over Ugandan (Low latitude) region. Scintillation Network Decision Aid (SCINDA) data was obtained from Makerere (0.34°N, 32.57°E) station, Uganda for two years (2011 and 2012). Data from two dual frequency GPS receivers at Mbarara (0.60°S, 30.74°E) and Entebbe (0.04°N, 32.44°E) was used to study TEC climatology during the same period of scintillation study. The results show that peak TEC values were recorded during the months of October–November, and the lowest values during the months of July–August. The diurnal peak of TEC occurs between 10:00 and 14:00 UT hours. Seasonally, the ascending and descending phases of TEC were observed during the equinoxes (March and September) and solstice (June and December), respectively. The scintillations observed during the study were classified as weak (0.1≤$\le$S4,_σΦ≤${\sigma }_{\mathrm{\Phi }}\le$0.3) and strong (0.3<$<$S4,_σΦ≤${\sigma }_{\mathrm{\Phi }}\le$1.0). The diurnal scintillation pattern showed peaks between 17:00 and 22:00 UT hour, while the seasonal pattern follows the TEC pattern mentioned above. Amplitude scintillation was more dominant than phase scintillation during the two years of the study. Scintillation peaks occur during the months of March–April and September–October, while the least scintillations occur during the months of June–July. Therefore, the contribution of this study is filling the gap in the current documentation of amplitude scintillation without phase scintillation over the Ugandan region. The scintillations observed have been attributed to wave-like structures which have periods of about 2–3 h, in the range of that of large scale travelling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs).     

Toward optimizing lighting as a countermeasure to sleep and circadian disruption in space flight

Light is being used as a pre-launch countermeasure to circadian and sleep disruption in astronauts. The effect of light on the circadian system is readily monitored by measurement of plasma melatonin. Our group has established an action spectrum for human melatonin regulation and determined the region of 446-477 nm to be the most potent for suppressing plasma melatonin. The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of 460 and 555 nm for suppressing melatonin using a within-subjects design. Subjects (N=12) were exposed to equal photon densities (7.18 x 10(12) photons/cm2/s) at 460 and 555 nm. Melatonin suppression was significantly stronger at 460 nm (p<0.02). An extension to the action spectrum showed that 420 nm light at 16 and 32 microW/cm2 significantly suppressed melatonin (p<0.04 and p<0.002). These studies will help optimize lighting countermeasures to circadian and sleep disruption during spaceflight.     

An approach to the autoignition of a turbulent mixture

This paper considers the turbulent homogeneous mixing of two reactants undergoing a one step, second order, irreversible, exothermic chemical reaction with a rate constant of the Arrhenius type. A statistically stationary turbulent velocity field is assumed given and unaffected by mass or heat production due to the chemical reaction. Relative density fluctuations are neglected. A Hopf-like functional formalism is presented, with application to both statistically inhomogeneous and statistically homogeneous flows. Single and double point probability density function differential equations are derived from those functional equations. The limit of very large activation energies is considered; a low degree of statistical correlation between temperature and concentration fields during the ignition period is hypothesized. After making use of the homogeneity assumption a closure problem is still present due to the nonlocalness of the molecular diffusion term. The problem is rendered closed by assuming a Gaussian conditional expected value for the temperature at a point given the temperature at a neighboring point. The closure is seen to preserve very important mathematical and physical properties. A linear first order hyperbolic differential equation with variable coefficients for the probability density function of the temperature field is obtained. A second Damköhler number based on Taylor's microscale turns out to be an important controlling parameter. A numerical integration for different values of the second Damköhler number and the initial stochastic parameters is carried out. The mixture is seen to evolve towards an eventual thermal runaway, the detailed behavior however being different for different systems. Some peculiarities during the ignition period evolution are uncovered.     

Resonant motion, ballistic escape, and their applications in astrodynamics

A special set of solutions governing the motion of a particle, subject to the gravitational attractions of the Earth, the Moon, and, eventually, the Sun, is discussed in this paper. These solutions, called resonant orbits, correspond to a special motion where the particle is in resonance with the Moon. For a restricted set of initial conditions the particle performs a resonance transition in the vicinity of the Moon. In this paper, the nature of the resonance transition is investigated under the perspective of the dynamical system theory and the energy approach. In particular, using a new definition of weak stability boundary, we show that the resonance transition mechanism is strictly related to the concept of weak capture. This is shown through a carefully computed set of Poincaré surfaces, at different energy levels, on which both the weak stability boundary and the resonant orbits are represented. It is numerically demonstrated that resonance transitioning orbits pass through the weak stability boundaries. In the second part of the paper the solar perturbation is taken into account, and the motion of the resonant orbits is studied within a four-body dynamics. We show that, for a wide class of initial conditions, the particle escapes from the Earth–Moon system and targets an heliocentric orbit. This is a free ejection called a ballistic escape. Astrodynamical applications are discussed.     

Tropospheric New Particle Formation and the Role of Ions

The Suprathermal Electron (STE) instrument, part of the IMPACT investigation on both spacecraft of NASA’s STEREO mission, is designed to measure electrons from ～2 to ～100 keV. This is the primary energy range for impulsive electron/³He-rich energetic particle events that are the most frequently occurring transient particle emissions from the Sun, for the electrons that generate solar type III radio emission, for the shock accelerated electrons that produce type II radio emission, and for the superhalo electrons (whose origin is unknown) that are present in the interplanetary medium even during the quietest times. These electrons are ideal for tracing heliospheric magnetic field lines back to their source regions on the Sun and for determining field line lengths, thus probing the structure of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and of the ambient inner heliosphere. STE utilizes arrays of small, passively cooled thin window silicon semiconductor detectors, coupled to state-of-the-art pulse-reset front-end electronics, to detect electrons down to ～2 keV with about 2 orders of magnitude increase in sensitivity over previous sensors at energies below ～20 keV. STE provides energy resolution of ΔE/E～10–25% and the angular resolution of ～20° over two oppositely directed ～80°×80° fields of view centered on the nominal Parker spiral field direction.     

Origin,age, and composition of meteorites

This paper attempts to bring together and evaluate all significant evidence on the origin of meteorites.The iron meteorites seem to have formed at low pressures. Laboratory evidence shows that the absence of a Widmanstätten pattern in meteorites with > 16% Ni cannot be attributed to high pressures, but to supercooling or an unusually fast cooling rate for these meteorites, which prevented the development of a pattern. The presence of tridymite in the Steinbach siderophyre provides further, direct proof that the Widmanstätten pattern can form at pressures less than 3 kb. Neither diamond, nor cliftonite, nor cohenite are reliable pressure indicators in meteorites. Diamonds were formed by shock while cliftonite may have been derived from a cubic carbide such as Fe₄C. Cohenite is apparently stabilized by kinetic rather than thermodynamic factors. Several lines of evidence suggest that the irons come from more than one parent body, perhaps as many as four.The frequency of pallasites is perfectly consistent with an origin in the transition zone between core and mantle of the parent body. Hybrid meteorites such as Brenham are not necessarily derived from the metal-silicate interface, but probably resulted from dendrite growth in the solidifying melt.Ordinary chondrites definitely are equilibrium assemblages rather than chance conglomerates. According to the best available evidence, Prior's rules seem to be valid. The metal particles in chondrites differentiated into kamacite and taenite in their present location, rather than in a remote earlier environment. Trace element abundances in ordinary and carbonaceous chondrites suggest that these meteorites accreted from two types of matter: an undepleted fraction that separated from its complement of gases at low temperatures, and a depleted fraction that lost its gases at high temperatures. These two fractions of primitive meteoritic matter are tentatively identified with the matrix and chondrules-plus-metal, respectively. New restrictive limits are placed on the iron-silicate fractionation in chondrites. No direct evolutionary path exists that connects the currently accepted solar abundances of Fe and Ni and the observed Fe/Si and Ni/Si ratios in chondrites. Apparently the solar abundance of iron is in error. The iron-silicate fractionation seems to have occurred while chondritic matter was in a more strongly reduced state than its present one.The U-He and K-Ar ages of hypersthene chondrites are systematically shorter than those of bronzite chondrites. Short ages are correlated with shock effects, and it seems that the hypersthene chondrites suffered reheating and partial-to-complete outgassing 0.4 AE ago. The cosmic-ray exposure ages of all classes of meteorites cluster distinctly, indicating that the meteorites were produced in a few discrete major collisions rather than by a quasi-continuum of smaller ones. The dates of the principal breakups are: irons, 0.6 and 0.9 AE; aubrites, 45 m.y.; bronzite chondrites, 4 m.y.; hypersthene chondrites, 0.025, 3, 7–13, and 16–31 m.y. All four clusters of hypersthene chondrites show evidence of severe outgassing 0.4 AE ago, which implies that most or all hypersthene chondrites come from the same parent body.As already noted by Signer and Suess, two distinct types of primordial gas occur in meteorites. Differentiated meteorites always contain unfractionated gas, while relatively undifferentiated meteorites contain fractionated gas. The former component is invariably associated with shock effects, and seems to have been derived from the solar wind. The latter component is correlated with other volatiles and seems to be a truly primitive constituent of meteoritic matter. Isotopic anomalies in the fractionated gas suggest that meteoritic matter was irradiated with 10¹⁷ protons/cm² at a very early stage of its history.There is very little doubt that most, if not all, meteorites come from the asteroid belt rather than from the moon. The orbits and geocentric velocities of stony meteorites resemble those of the Apollo asteroids (most of which are former members of the asteroid belt that have strayed into terrestrial space), but disagree strongly with the calculated orbits and velocities for lunar ejecta. Öpik's conclusions about the difficulty of accelerating lunar debris to escape velocity represent a further argument against a lunar origin of stony meteorites.The most likely parent bodies of the meteorites are the 34 asteroids which cross the orbit of Mars. Collisional debris from these objects will remain in Mars-crossing orbits, and perturbations by Mars will inject some fraction of this material into terrestrial space. Most of the Mars asteroids, comprising 98% of the mass and 92% of the cross-section, belong to three Hirayama families (Phocaea, Desiderata, and Aethra), and an additional, previously unrecognized family. These families were apparently produced by disruption of parent asteroids ca. 104, 105, and 46 km in diameter. The size distribution and light curves of asteroids indicate that the larger asteroids are original accretions, rather than collision fragments. There is no reason to believe that the meteorites ever resided in bodies larger than Ceres (d = 770 km).Various theories on the origin of the meteorites are critically reviewed in the light of the preceding evidence. Wood's theory, which postulates a high-temperature and a low-temperature variety of primordial matter, is in best accord with the evidence. Apparently the asteroids accreted from varying proportions of these two types of material, and were then heated by extinct radioactivity produced in the early irradiation.     

Fields and plasmas in the outer solar system

The most significant information about fields and plasmas in the outer solar system, based on observations by Pioneer 10 and 11 investigations, is reviewed. The characteristic evolution of solar wind streams beyond 1 AU has been observed. The region within which the velocity increases continuously near 1 AU is replaced at larger distances by a thick interaction region with abrupt jumps in the solar wind speed at the leading and trailing edges. These abrupt increases, accompanied by corresponding jumps in the field magnitude and in the solar wind density and temperature, consist typically of a forward and a reverse shock. The existence of two distinct corotating regions, separated by sharp boundaries, is a characteristic feature of the interplanetary medium in the outer solar system. Within the interaction regions, compression effects are dominant and the field strength, plasma density, plasma temperature and the level of fluctuations are enhanced. Within the intervening quiet regions, rarefaction effects dominate and the field magnitude, solar wind density and fluctuation level are very low. These changes in the structure of interplanetary space have significant consequences for the many energetic particles propagating through the medium. The interaction regions control the access to the inner solar system of relativistic electrons from Jupiter's magnetosphere. The interaction regions and shocks appear to be associated with an acceleration of solar protons to MeV energies. Flare-generated shocks are observed to be propagating through the outer solar system with constant speed, implying that the previously recognized deceleration of flare shocks takes place principally near the Sun. Radial gradients in the solar wind and interplanetary field parameters have been determined. The solar wind speed is nearly constant between 1 and 5 AU with only a slight deceleration of 30 km s⁺¹ on the average. The proton flux follows an r ⁺² dependence reasonably well, however, the proton density shows a larger departure from this dependence. The proton temperature decreases steadily from 1 to 5 AU and the solar wind protons are slightly hotter than anticipated for an adiabatic expansion. The radial component of the interplanetary field falls off like r ⁺² and, on the average, the magnitude and spiral angle also agree reasonably well with theory. However, there is evidence, principally within quiet regions, of a significant departure of the azimuthal field component and the field magnitude from simple theoretical models. Pioneer 11 has obtained information up to heliographic latitudes of 16°. Observations of the interplanetary sector structure show that the polarity of the field becomes gradually more positive, corresponding to outward-directed fields at the Sun, and at the highest latitudes the sector structure disappears. These results confirm a prior suspicion that magnetic sectors are associated with an interplanetary current sheet surrounding the Sun which is inclined slightly to the solar equator.Proceedings of the Symposium on Solar Terrestrial Physics held in Innsbruck, May–June 1978.     

Goals for space exploration based on stakeholder value network considerations

We present a methodology that provides traceable analysis from stakeholders’ needs to prioritized goals for human space exploration. We first construct a network to represent the stakeholder environment of NASA’s human exploration efforts, then assess the intensity of these stakeholder needs, and build a numerical model to represent the flow of value in the network. The underlying principle is that as a rational actor, NASA should invest its resources in creating outputs that provide the greatest return of support to it. We showcase this methodology, seeded with test data, the results of which suggests that the most important outputs of the exploration endeavor are human and robotic exploration firsts and science data, but also include funding to the science community, providing interesting NASA mission event content directly to the public and to the media, and commercial contracts. We propose that goals should be structured to ensure these value outputs, and be written in such as way as to convey the subsequent creation of value in the network. The goals derived in this manner suggest that the majority of the value created by human space exploration derives from campaign level design, rather than from operation of transportation elements. There would be higher assurance that these value outputs would be delivered if a responsible official or entity within the exploration function was specifically tasked with ensuring stakeholder value creation.     

Space in the UK: something to celebrate?

This article discusses current UK space activities that were debated during the ‘policy’ day of a 3-day ‘Festival of Space’ held at Surrey University in July 2003. While the emphasis is on using space to fulfil the needs of society, it is apparent that crafting a coherent strategy that would provide the political support needed to do this—in Europe as well as in the UK—remains difficult.