A comparative and numerical study of effects of gravity waves in small miss-distance and miss-time GPS radio occultation temperature profiles

The Global Positioning System (GPS) Radio Occultation (RO) technique has global coverage and is capable of generating high vertical resolution temperature profiles of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere with sub-Kelvin accuracy and long-term stability, regardless of weather conditions. In this work, we take advantage of the anomalously high density of occultation events at the eastern side of the highest Andes Mountains during the initial mission months of COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate). This region is well-known for its high wave activity. We choose to study two pairs of GPS RO, both containing two occultations that occurred close in time and space. One pair shows significant differences between both temperature profiles. Numerical simulations with a mesoscale model were performed, in order to understand this discrepancy. It is attributed to the presence of a horizontal inhomogeneous structure caused by gravity waves.     

Structure of the Program of Short-term Prediction of Powerful Solar Flares

Input data of the system are two-dimensional images and one-dimensional distributions of total and polarized solar emission at 5.2 cm wavelength obtained with SSRT. Together with photoheliograms, magnetograms, Hα-filtergrams and characteristics of active regions received from other sources, they form the initial database. The first stage includes superimposing the images, identifying microwave sources with active regions, assigning NOAA numbers to the sources, and determining for each active region the heliolatitude, extent, and inclination angle of the group's axis to the equator. These data are used to calculate the boundaries of longitude zones for each active region. A next stage involves determining the brightness temperatures of microwave sources less than the polarization distribution, the degree of polarization, and microwave emission flux, as well as calculating the parameters of microwave sources. Each parameter is assigned its own value of the weight factor, and the sum of values is used to draw the conclusion about the flare occurrence probability in each active region and on the Sun in general.     

The characteristics of sharp (small-scale) boundaries of solar wind plasma and magnetic field structures

We investigate properties of large (>20%) and sharp (<10 min) solar wind ion flux changes using INTERBALL-1 and WIND plasma and magnetic field measurements from 1996 to 1999. These ion flux changes are the boundaries of small-scale and middle-scale solar wind structures. We describe the behavior of the solar wind velocity, temperature and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during these sudden flux changes. Many of the largest ion flux changes occur during periods when the solar wind velocity is nearly constant, so these are mainly plasma density changes. The IMF magnitude and direction changes at these events can be either large or small. For about 55% of the ion flux changes, the sum of the thermal and magnetic pressure are in balance across the boundary. In many of the other cases, the thermal pressure change is significantly more than the magnetic pressure change. We also attempted to classify the types of discontinuities observed.     

Interplanetary shocks and sudden impulses during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996)

In this work a study is performed on the correlation between fast forward interplanetary shock parameters at 1 Astronomical Unit and sudden impulse (SI) amplitudes in the H-component of the geomagnetic field, for periods of solar activity maximum (year 2000) and minimum (year 1995–1996). Solar wind temperature, density and speed, and total magnetic field, were taken to calculate the static pressures (thermal and magnetic) both in the upstream and downstream sides of the shocks. The variations of the solar wind parameters and pressures were then correlated with SI amplitudes. The solar wind speed variations presented good correlations with sudden impulses, with correlation coefficients larger than 0.70 both in solar maximum and solar minimum, whereas the solar wind density presented very low correlation. The parameter better correlated with SI was the square root dynamic pressure variation, showing a larger correlation during solar maximum (r = 0.82) than during solar minimum (r = 0.77). The correlations of SI with square root thermal and magnetic pressure were smaller than with the dynamic pressure, but they also present a good correlation, with r > 0.70 during both solar maximum and minimum. Multiple linear correlation analysis of SI in terms of the three pressure terms have shown that 78% and 85% of the variance in SI during solar maximum and minimum, respectively, are explained by the three pressure variations. Average sudden impulse amplitude was 25 nT during solar maximum and 21 nT during solar minimum, while average square root dynamic pressure variation is 1.20 and 0.86 nPa^1/2 during solar maximum and minimum, respectively. Thus on average, fast forward interplanetary shocks are 33% stronger during solar maximum than during solar minimum, and the magnetospheric SI response has amplitude 20% higher during solar maximum than during solar minimum. A comparison with theoretical predictions (Tsyganenko’s model corrected by Earth’s induced currents) of the coefficient of sudden impulse change with solar wind dynamic pressure variation showed excellent agreement, with values around 17 nT/nPa^1/2.     

A first step towards proton flux forecasting

We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 and 2 MeV of solar energetic particle events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transportation model by Lario et al. [Lario, D., Sanahuja, B., Heras, A.M. Energetic particle events: efficiency of interplanetary shocks as 50 keV E < 100 MeV proton accelerators. Astrophys. J. 509, 415–434, 1998] and the magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation model of Wu et al. [Wu, S.T., Dryer, M., Han, S.M. Non-planar MHD model for solar flare-generated disturbances in the Heliospheric equatorial plane. Sol. Phys. 84, 395–418, 1983], we have generated a database containing “synthetic” profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 solar energetic particle events. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting “synthetic” flux profiles with those of several real events.     

Noise in wireless systems from solar radio bursts

Solar radio bursts were first discovered as result of their interference in early defensive radar systems during the Second World War (1942). Such bursts can still affect radar systems, as well as new wireless technologies. We have investigated a forty-year record of solar radio burst data (1960–1999) as well as several individual radio events in the 23rd solar cycle. This paper reviews the results of a portion of this research. Statistically, for frequencies f  1 GHz (near current wireless bands), there can be a burst with amplitudes >10³ solar flux units (SFU; 1 SFU = 10⁻²² W/m²) every few days during solar maximum conditions, and such burst levels can produce problems in contemporary wireless systems.     

Research on a complex CME event including Hα, LASCO, radio and MDI observations

We present our research on a fast and decelerating partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) event detected in multi-wavelengths in the chromosphere and the corona on 14 October, 1999. The event involved a whole complex active area which spanned more than 40° of heliolongitude. It included a strong solar flare (XI/1N) and a complex eruptive filament within an active region of the entire complex. Especially, several radio sources were detected in the decimetric range prior to the CME by the Nançay Radioheliograph (NRH). A linear force-free field extrapolation of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetogram was performed to calculate the magnetic topology of the complex prior to the triggering of the event. The presence of a coronal null point combined with the occurrence of two distant and nearly simultaneous radio sources put strong arguments in favor of the generalized breakout model for the triggering of the eruption. The analysis of the subsequent development of the event suggests that large interconnecting loops were ejected together with the CME.