ARMA Time Series Modeling: an Effective Method

The ability to generate rational models of time series plays an important role in such applications as adaptive filtering, spectral estimation, digital control, array processing, and forecasting. A method for effecting an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model estimate is presented which possesses a number of admirable properties: 1) it has an elegant algebraic structure, 2) its modeling performance in spectral estimation applications has been empirically found to typically exceed that of such contemporary techniques as the periodogram, the Burg method, and the Box-Jenkins method on a variety of problems, 3) it is implementable by computationally efficient algorithms, and 4) it is based on pseudomaximum likelihood concepts. Taken in combination, these properties mark this method as being an effective tool in challenging applications requiring high modeling performance in a real time setting.     

Advanced communications satellite technology

Technology drivers for commercial communications satellites are examined based on the efficient use of spacecraft mass which is to be accomplished by increasing the efficiency of the microwave power amplifiers and antenna feed systems used for communications satellites, such as the INTELSAT series. The history of the INTELSAT series of satellites, the late 1980s market and available technology, and future directions of development are considered. Emphasis is on multibeam solid-state antennas, microwave switch matrices, solid-state power amplifiers, and the use of several filter modes in one physical cavity. By using quasimonolithic solid state techniques in a class B amplification mode they have achieved 40-60% efficiencies, compared with 20% for the conventional travelling wavetube amplifiers. It is concluded that technology directed towards improving the economics of satellite communications will continue to be a major driver of future communications satellite payloads. Through their use and their extension, the authors foresee more than doubling the telephone channels per satellite from the current 80000 to perhaps 200000 by the turn of the century     

Evaluation of JGM 2 geopotential errors from Geosat, TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1 crossover altimetry

World-ocean distribution of the crossover altimetry data from Geosat, TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and the ERS 1 missions have provided strong independent evidence that NASA's/CSR's JGM 2 geopotential model (70 × 70 in spherical harmonics) yields accurate radial ephemerides for these satellites. In testing the sea height crossover differences found from altimetry and JGM 2 orbits for these satellites, we have used the sea height differences themselves (of ascending minus descending passes averaged at each location over many exact repeat cycles) and the Lumped Latitude Coefficients (LLC) derived from them. For Geosat we find the geopotential-induced LLC errors (exclusive of non-gravitational and initial state discrepancies) mostly below 6 cm, for TOPEX the corresponding errors are usually below 2 cm, and for ERS 1 (35-day cycle) they are generally below 5 cm. In addition, we have found that these observations agree well overall with predictions of accuracy derived from the JGM 2 variance-covariance matrix; the corresponding projected LLC errors for Geosat, T/P, and ERS 1 are usually between 1 and 4 cm, 1 – 2 cm, and 1 – 4 cm, respectively (they depend on the filtering of long-periodic perturbations and on the order of the LLC). This agreement is especially impressive for ERS 1 since no data of any kind from this mission was used in forming JGM 2.

The observed crossover differences for Geosat, T/P and ERS 1 are 8, 3, and 11 cm (rms), respectively. These observations also agree well with prediction of accuracy derived from the JGM 2 variance-covariance matrix; the corresponding projected crossover errors for Geosat and T/P are 8 cm and 2.3 cm, respectively. The precision of our mean difference observations is about 3 cm for Geosat (approx. 24,000 observations), 1.5 cm for T/P (approx. 6,000 observations) and 5 cm for ERS 1 (approx. 44,000 observations). Thus, these “global” independent data should provide a valuable new source for improving geopotential models. Our results show the need for further correction of the low order JGM 2 geopotential as well as certain resonant orders for all 3 satellites.     

The infrared imaging channel of the IKS instrument for detection of Comet Halley nucleus

The imaging Channel of the IKS Instrument placed on board the Vega fly-by probes will perform measurements of the infrared emission of the central region of Comet Halley at distances in the 10⁴ ? 10⁵ km range. An encoding wheel analyses one spatial frequency of the infrared image during the whole fly-by. Inversion of this measurement will give low resolution brightness profiles of the nucleus and its immediate surroundings, in two wave-length bandpasses and in two directions of analysis.     

Cardiovascular and hormonal responses to bicycle exercise during lower body negative pressure

The purpose was to combine bicycle exercise and LBNP as a model to investigate the mechanisms regulating circulation during gravitatiobal stresses. METHODS: Cardiac Output (CO) by acetylene-, argon-, oxygen rebreathing; Heart Rate (HR) from ECG; Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP) by arm cuff; Plasma Nor-Epinephrine (NE), Epinephrine (E), and Lactate (HLa) by isotope and enzymatic techniques respectively. Total Peripheral Resistance (TPR)=MAP/CO and stroke volume (SV)=CO/HR. Six subjects exercised at 180–200 Watts in the upright position on a mechanically braked computer controlled small bicycle ergometer placed in a LBNP box. The above parameters were measured at rest and at 5 and 9 min of exercise without and with LBNP at −30 or −40 mmHg (depending on LBNP tolerance). RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: In the face of an increased sympathetic nervous activity (Ne+E, TPR, and HR increased) during exercise in LBNP, there was a decrease in CO and SV indicating that the venous return was insufficient. However, HLa was unchanged demonstrating that the blood flow to the working muscles did not suffer.     

Chemical evolution in space--a source of prebiotic molecules.

In Laboratory Astrophysics at Leiden University a laboratory analog for following the chemical evolution of interstellar dust in space shows that the dust contains the bulk of organic material in the universe. We follow the photoprocessing of low temperature (10 K) mixtures of ices subjected to vacuum ultraviolet radiation in simulation of interstellar conditions. The most important, but necessary, difference is in the time scales for photo-processing. One hour in the laboratory is equivalent to one thousand years in low density regions of space and as much as, or greater than, ten thousand to one million years in the depths of dense molecular clouds. The ultimate product of photoprocessing of grain material in the laboratory is a complex nonvolatile residue which is yellow in color and soluble in water and methanol. The molecular weight is greater than the mid-hundreds. The infrared absorption spectra indicate the presence of carboxylic acid and amino groups resembling those of other molecules of presumably prebiological significance produced by more classical methods. One of our residues, when subjected to high resolution mass spectroscopy gave a mass of 82 corresponding to C4H6H2 after release of CO2 and trace ammounts of urea suggesting amino pyroline rings. The deposit of prebiotic dust molecules occurred as many as 5 times in the first 500-700 million years on a primitive Earth by accretion during the passage of the solar system through a dense interstellar cloud. The deposition rate during each passage is estimated to be between 10(9) and 10(10) g per year during the million or so years of each passage; i.e., a total deposition of 1O(9)-10(10) metric tons of complex organic material per passage.     

Recent developments in space-borne zodiacal light photometry

The 1985 International Solar Polar Mission will provide the first opportunity to perform measurements from out of the ecliptic and from above the solar poles. Included in this mission is the Zodiacal Light/Background Starlight Experiment of the Ruhr-University Bochum, FRG (in collaboration with the State University of New York at Albany). The experiment is based on the use of a multicolor, sky-scanning photopolarimeter, which will be carried on the NASA S/C.The scientific objectives of the experiment are to investigate the intensity, polarization, and color of the diffuse sky brightness and determine the spatial distribution and physical properties of the interplanetary dust, including a possible interstellar component, as a function of S/C position in and out of the ecliptic.The instrument will allow simultaneous measurements in two separate wavelength bands. Measurements will be performed at 180, 220, 240, 280, 320, 350, 360, 440, 540, 640, 800 nm, including the state of polarization. Two different fields-of-view (1 sq deg and 5.6 sq deg) can be selected.The use of a microprocessor system in the instrument electronics will provide flexibility in measurement sequences and programs, on-board data processing and data quality control.     

Optimisation of powerful energy supply systems for application in space

In this paper it is shown how a nuclear power system with turboelectric conversion is being optimised for application in space and how data subject to the mission and technological data enter into such an analysis. Thereafter it follows a comparison with nuclear power systems with magnetofluiddynamic and thermionic converters.     

The Effects of Defruiting on the ATCRBS

The defruiter that is employed in the Air Traffic Control Radar Beacon System (ATCRBS) to prefilter asynchronous replies has a complex impact on the detection, estimation and validation properties of the detection subsystem. Its positive and negative effects are quantitatively enumerated via a simulation of the beacon processing subsystem of the Automated Radar Terminal System (ARTS III). It is concluded that the disadvantages of using the present-day defruiter in the ARTS III digital processing channel outweigh the advantages when fruit rates are below several thousand per scan. As an alternative to the total elimination of the defruiter a more general class of preprocessors is defined and their input-output relationships are derived using a Markov Chain formulation. These are found to represent an improvement over the current defruiter in that the positive effects of defruiting are retained while some of the negative effects are reduced.     

Planetary radio astronomy experiment for Voyager missions

The planetary radio astronomy experiment will measure radio spectra of planetary emissions in the range 1.2 kHz to 40.5 MHz. These emissions result from wave-particle-plasma interactions in the magnetospheres and ionospheres of the planets. At Jupiter, they are strongly modulated by the Galilean satellite Io.As the spacecraft leave the Earth's vicinity, we will observe terrestrial kilometric radiation, and for the first time, determine its polarization (RH and LH power separately). At the giant planets, the source of radio emission at low frequencies is not understood, but will be defined through comparison of the radio emission data with other particles and fields experiments aboard Voyager, as well as with optical data. Since, for Jupiter, as for the Earth, the radio data quite probably relate to particle precipitation, and to magnetic field strength and orientation in the polar ionosphere, we hope to be able to elucidate some characteristics of Jupiter auroras.Together with the plasma wave experiment, and possibly several optical experiments, our data can demonstrate the existence of lightning on the giant planets and on the satellite Titan, should it exist. Finally, the Voyager missions occur near maximum of the sunspot cycle. Solar outburst types can be identified through the radio measurements; when the spacecraft are on the opposite side of the Sun from the Earth we can identify solar flare-related events otherwise invisible on the Earth.