基于GARCH族优选模型的舰船器材消耗预测

器材消耗量预测是做好技术保障工作的前提和基础,受设备生命周期、任务类型、海洋环境及使用设备人员的技能水平等因素的影响,舰船器材消耗量序列会随着时间的推移而产生波动现象,丛集效应和高峰厚尾特征明显。根据 AIC(A-Information Criterion)准则,对 GARCH(Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity)族模型进行比较优选,寻求一种更为合适的预测模型,实现对消耗量的准确预测。     

复合喷管结构温度场流固耦合仿真分析

为了评估复合喷管热防护性能以及获取喷管烧蚀和结构应力分析的工况条件,运用Fluent流体动力学软件,对复合喷管的结构温度场进行了数值仿真。分析中,采用了两方程RNG k?ω湍流模型和增强型壁面函数,利用流固耦合的计算方法,获得了喷管结构瞬态温度场的计算结果,重点分析了结构温度场最终分布状态和初期传播特点,以及喉衬温度随时间的变化规律,估算了喉衬的烧蚀。分析结果表明,喷管结构热防护性能满足要求,温度最高区域位于喷管收敛段中后部,喉衬线烧蚀量约为2．1 mm,为喷管结构进一步优化设计提供了重要参考依据。     

Experimental study of a flush wall scramjet combustor equipped with strut/wall fuel injection

In this study a flush wall scramjet combustor is tested in a supersonic incoming air flow with the Mach number of 3 which is generated by an air vitiation heater producing the stagnation temperature of 1505 K. Using liquid kerosene as the fuel, the flame is stabilized by means of a centrally mounted O₂ pilot strut after being ignited by a plasma torch. During experimental measurements, the fuel is injected with a constant equivalence ratio of 0.8 according to specified strut/wall injection ratios, i.e., a portion of the fuel amount is injected from the strut while the rest is injected from the wall. The strut and wall injectors are arranged at the same axial position. The combustion performance and wall temperature gradients are evaluated with various fuel feeding ratios between the wall and the strut. Experimental results show, when the equivalence ratio is constant and the axial injection position is fixed, the combustion characteristics vary significantly with the strut/wall fuel feeding ratio, especially when this ratio is close to its lowest and highest limits. Among the four fuel feeding ratios examined, the strut only injection mode and the average distributed strut/wall injection mode show the best combustion performance. However, the strut/wall injection mode produces a smaller wall temperature gradient compared to the strut only injection mode, which is due to the significant film cooling effect caused by the wall injected liquid kerosene.     

Numerical investigation of the impact of asymmetric fuel injection on shock train characteristics

Numerical simulations are carried out to investigate the impact of asymmetric fuel injection on shock train characteristics using the commercial-code FLUENT. The asymmetry of fuel injection is examined by changing the fuel flow rates of the upper and lower wall fuel injectors. The numerical approach solves the two-dimensional Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations, supplemented with a k-ω model of turbulence. As a result, different ways of fuel injections will always lead to shock train transitions, with the variations of shock train structure, strength and leading edge position. For symmetric fuel injection, the flowfield of the isolator is quite asymmetric with the boundary layer of the upper wall side developing much stronger than that of the lower wall, which is due to the heterogeneity of the incoming flow. Regarding to asymmetric fuel injection with more of lower wall side, though the pressures in the combustor are nearly the same, the first shock of the shock train converts between ‘Distinct symmetric X type shock’ and ‘Obscure and weaker asymmetric shock’ and the shock train leading edge moves upstream with the increase of the asymmetry level. With regard to asymmetric fuel injection with more of upper wall side, ‘incomplete asymmetric X type shock’ occurs and the shock train structures keep nearly the same with low level of fuel injection asymmetry. Unexpected results like unstart will happen when increasing the level of fuel injection asymmetry. And the isolator will come back to normal state by decreasing the differential of upper and lower wall sides fuel injections.     

主成分分析在物联网产业发展中的应用研究

物联网由于其广泛的应用领域和广阔的发展前景,自诞生之日起就得到世界各国和科学界的研究和重视,本文通过主成分分析方法对物联网产业发展生产要素的分析,选取具有代表性的全国八省,从发展潜力层面进行物联网产业发展能力的综合评价研究,筛选出对物联网产业发展有重要作用的生产要素指标,对物联网产业的发展规划提供必要的理论依据和参考。     

环境减灾-1A、1B卫星光学载荷在轨运行情况分析

环境减灾-1A、1B卫星于2008年9月6日发射升空,至2013年7月20日,2颗卫星的4台宽覆盖多光谱CCD相机、1台超光谱成像仪(HSI)和1台红外相机(IRS)已在轨稳定工作近5年,共获取超过61万景2级地面遥感图像数据。文章对在轨运行的光学载荷遥测参数进行了统计和分析,结果表明:DC/DC电压遥测变化量不超过5%,关键光机部位温度遥测变化量小于2.25℃,转动部件电压和电流遥测变化量小于1%,遥测参数均在设计范围内,显示光学载荷在轨稳定正常工作。最后,综合分析了光学载荷图像数据应用情况,分析表明:光学载荷图像数据具有较强的地物影像分类、提取和分辨能力,与国外同类卫星比较,水体识别符合度达到90%以上,旱情分级符合度大于66%,光谱分辨率达到5nm,积雪范围提取精度达到90%以上,在各类应用领域发挥了较大的效能。     

高超声速滑翔飞行器轨迹优化与制导综述

针对多约束条件下高超声速滑翔飞行器轨迹优化与制导问题,从离线和在线两个方面综述了高超声速滑翔飞行器轨迹优化与制导方法,并进行了展望。首先建立了带随机干扰的高超声速滑翔飞行器轨迹优化与制导问题模型。针对是否考虑随机干扰,从确定性和鲁棒性两方面对离线轨迹优化与制导进行了综述。在线轨迹优化与制导方面主要对在线轨迹生成加轨迹跟踪的标准轨迹制导和预测制导两方面进行了综述。最后,提出轨迹优化与制导技术应加强在模型、计算效率、多任务、高精度制导等几个方面的研究。     

空间在轨服务物理仿真系统有效性研究

研究典型在轨服务机器人气浮式物理仿真系统的有效性问题。针对在轨逼近和操作（抓取、移动和释放）这两种关键工作模式,从动力学原理和干扰下响应的一致性两个方面,系统分析了仿真数据的有效性。基于对误差模型的分析,研究仿真系统中干扰因素对仿真数据有效性的影响,给出物理仿真系统的可应用条件。将该结果应用到具体物理仿真系统中,可以对物理仿真试验起指导作用。     

航天器单层板结构弹道极限的支持向量机预测模型

提出了一种基于非线性不可分支持向量机（SVM）方法的航天器单层板结构弹道极限预测模型。利用实验数据对SVM进行训练,建立穿透点和未穿透点的分隔面,进而预测新结构弹道极限特性。SVM的训练问题是以实验点分类正确性为约束,预测置信度最大化为目标的二次规划问题,用Lagrange对偶方法有效求解了该训练问题,并通过附加Lagrange乘子的上限约束处理不可分数据集。引入二次核函数将线性SVM推广到非线性,有效实现了实验点的分类。利用超高速碰撞实验数据对SVM弹道极限预测模型进行了验证,计算对比表明SVM方法有效预测了弹道极限,并且精度高于NASA JSC单层板弹道极限方程。对分离面方程分离变量,建立了基于SVM的弹道极限方程显式表达式。     

脉压雷达旁瓣匿影工作模式与抗干扰性能分析

旁瓣匿影是脉冲压缩雷达中常用的抗干扰技术。首先基于旁瓣匿影的一般结构,构建了脉压前匿影与脉压后匿影两种工作模式。然后重点针对不同工作模式下的雷达抗干扰性能和检测性能进行了理论分析和仿真研究。结果表明,脉压前匿影比较适合对抗压制性脉冲干扰,而脉压后匿影则更适合对抗欺骗性脉冲干扰。