Technology readiness and risk assessments: A new approach

Systems that depend upon the application of new technologies inevitably face three major challenges during development: performance, schedule and budget. Technology research and development (R&D) programs are typically advocated based on argument that these investments will substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. However, if early R&D is implemented poorly, then the new system developments that plan to employ the resulting advanced technologies will suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.Several approaches have been used to evaluate technology maturity and risk in order to better anticipate later system development risks. The “technology readiness levels” (TRLs), developed by NASA, are one discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) that allows more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. Another broadly used management tool is of the “risk matrix”, which depends upon a graphical representation of uncertainty and consequences. However, for the most part these various methodologies have had no explicit interrelationship.This paper will examine past uses of current methods to improve R&D outcomes and will highlight some of the limitations that can arise. In this context, a new concept for the integration of the TRL methodology, and the concept of the “risk matrix” will be described. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important new concept of integrated “technology readiness and risk assessments”.     

Technology readiness assessments: A retrospective

The development of new system capabilities typically depends upon the prior success of advanced technology research and development efforts. These systems developments inevitably face the three major challenges of any project: performance, schedule and budget. Done well, advanced technology programs can substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. Done poorly, or not at all, and new system developments suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.In the mid 1970s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) introduced the concept of “technology readiness levels” (TRLs) as a discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) to allow more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. In 1995, the TRL scale was further strengthened by the articulation of the first definitions of each level, along with examples (J. Mankins, Technology readiness levels, A White Paper, NASA, Washington, DC, 1995. [1]). Since then, TRLs have been embraced by the U.S. Congress’ General Accountability Office (GAO), adopted by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), and are being considered for use by numerous other organizations. Overall, the TRLs have proved to be highly effective in communicating the status of new technologies among sometimes diverse organizations.This paper will review the concept of “technology readiness assessments”, and provide a retrospective on the history of “TRLs” during the past 30 years. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important discipline of technology readiness assessments.     

Vertical distribution of the power of short- and long-period oscillations in a sunspot and in surrounding magnetic elements

We present the results of processing three 256-min series of observations of quasi-periodic oscillations of the field of line-of-sight velocities in three sunspots. The Doppler shifts were determined simultaneously for six spectral lines formed at different heights in the solar atmosphere. In addition to the well-known high-frequency (periods of 3–5 min) oscillations, a band of low-frequency oscillations with periods of 60–80 min is revealed in the spectra of the sunspot umbra and magnetic elements located in immediate proximity of the sunspot. Unlike the short-period modes, the power of the long-period mode of line-of-sight velocity oscillations in the sunspot decreases sharply with height: these oscillations are distinctly seen in the line formed at a height of 200 km and almost are not seen in the line with the formation height of 500 km. This is indicative of different physical nature of the short-period and long-period oscillations of a sunspot. If the former are caused by slow magnetosonic waves within the field tube of the spot, the latter are representative of global vertical-radial oscillations of a magnetic element (spot, pore) as a whole near the position of a stable equilibrium.     

Numerical simulation of circulation of the Titan’s atmosphere: Interpretation of measurements of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Huygens</Emphasis> probe

The results of numerical simulation of the general circulation in the Titan’s atmosphere at heights from 0 to 250 km are presented, obtained using a new model based on numerical solution of complete equations of motion of viscous compressible gas at the temperature distribution given by an empirical model. The model uses no hydrostatic equation and, as compared with traditional models, has higher resolution in vertical and over horizon. The results presented differ from results of other models and agree with the vertical profile of the zonal component of wind velocity measured by the Huygens spacecraft. Interpretation of this profile is given, including its main peculiarity consisting in a nonmonotonic behavior at heights from 60 to 75 km.     

Estimation of dynamic characteristics of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">International Space Station</Emphasis> from measurements of microaccelerations

We describe the results of determining the mass of the International Space Station using the data of MAMS accelerometer taken during correction of the station orbit on August 20, 2004. The correction was made by approach and attitude control engines (ACE) of the Progress transporting spacecraft. The engines were preliminary calibrated in an autonomous flight using the onboard device for measuring apparent velocity increment. The method of calibration is described and its results are presented. The error in station mass determination is about 1%. The same data of MAMS and similar data obtained during the orbit correction on August 26, 2004 were used for the analysis of high-frequency vibrations of the station mainframe caused by operation of the ACE of Progress. Natural frequencies of the ACE are determined. They lie in the frequency band 0.024–0.11 Hz. ACE operation is demonstrated to result in a substantial increase of microaccelerations onboard the station in the frequency range 0–1 Hz. The frequencies are indicated at which disturbances increase by more than an order of magnitude. The study described was carried out as a part of the Tensor technological experiment.     

A method of calculation of vertical cutoff rigidity in the geomagnetic field

On the basis of generalization of the results of extensive trajectory calculations for trial charged particles moving in the geomagnetic field the method of calculation of effective vertical cutoff rigidity, taking into account the values of K _p -index and local time, is developed. The IGRF and Tsyganenko-89 models are used for the geomagnetic field. A comparison of the results of model simulations with the experimental data on penetration of charged particles into near-Earth space is made, and penetration functions for typical spacecraft orbits are calculated.     

On the problem of rotation of the ocean and icy crust of Jovian moon Europa

A mathematical model of the non-steady-state magnetosphere of the ocean of Jupiter’s moon Europa is described. This magnetosphere is induced by the magnetic field of Jupiter, and its interaction with the Europa ocean is considered. Rotation of the ocean and its icy crust with respect to the hard core is described by a system of integro-differential equations with singular kernels, the values of the Reynolds number and magnetic Reynolds number being large for the system. The solution to these equations obtained by the methods of operational calculus is analyzed quantitatively and compared with a model experiment.     

Formation of large-scale vortices in shear flows of the lower atmosphere of the earth in the region of tropical latitudes

The paper is devoted to studying the mechanisms of formation of cyclones in the Earth’s atmosphere with the help of numerical modeling using the complete system of gas-dynamic equations. The results of modeling have shown that cyclones can appear in horizontal stratified shear flows of warm and wet air masses with horizontal direction of gradients of the wind velocity components as a result of small disturbances of pressure which can be produced by Rossby waves.     

Determination of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Foton M-2</Emphasis> satellite attitude motion by the data of microacceleration measurements

The results of reconstruction of uncontrolled attitude motion of the Foton M-2 satellite using measurements with the accelerometer TAS-3 are presented. The attitude motion of this satellite has been previously determined by the measurement data of the Earth’s magnetic field and the angular velocity. The TAS-3 data for this purpose are used for the first time. These data contain a well-pronounced additional component which made impossible their direct employment for the reconstruction of the attitude motion and whose origin was unknown several years ago. Later it has become known that the additional component is caused by the influence of the Earth’s magnetic field. The disclosure of this fact allowed us to take into account a necessary correction in processing of TAS-3 data and to use them for the reconstruction of the attitude motion of Foton M-2. Here, a modified method of processing TAS-3 data is described, as well as results of its testing and employing. The testing consisted in the direct comparison of the motion reconstructed by the new method with the motion constructed by the magnetic measurements. The new method allowed us to find the actual motion of Foton M-2 in the period June 9, 2005–June 14, 2005, when no magnetic measurements were carried out.     

Effect of parametric and nonlinear perturbations on statistical dynamics of the Earth’s pole

We study the influence of additive and parametric slowly varying harmonic (at the Chandler frequency and doubled frequency) and stochastic Gaussian broadband perturbations on mathematical expectations, variances, and covariations of oscillations of the Earth’s pole. The influence of perturbations on both regular and irregular stochastic oscillations is considered in detail. Results of numerical experiments are presented. The developed models and software are included into information resources on the fundamental problem “Statistical dynamics of the Earth’s rotation” of Russian Academy of Sciences.