Forecasting the future in space: Highlights from the TechCast Project

Space technology and activities have changed markedly from the early days of the space era and are continuing to develop rapidly. The TechCast Project—set up to pool the knowledge of experts in the scientific fields—includes space in its predictions. Here its president reports on its space forecasts for the 21st century. The importance of the shift towards the privatization of space is noted and the near-to-medium-term impossibility of interstellar travel conceded. Contact with ETI is deemed much more likely, however.     

Genomic instability and tumorigenic induction in immortalized human bronchial epithelial cells by heavy ions

Carcinogenesis is postulated to be a progressive multistage process characterized by an increase in genomic instability and clonal selection with each mutational event endowing a selective growth advantage. Genomic instability as manifested by the amplification of specific gene fragments is common among tumor and transformed cells. In the present study, immortalized human bronchial (BEP2D) cells were irradiated with graded doses of either 1GeV/nucleon ⁵⁶Fe ions or 150 keV/μm alpha particles. Transformed cells developed through a series of successive steps before becoming tumorigenic in nude mice. Tumorigenic cells showed neither ras mutations nor deletion in the p16 tumor suppressor gene. In contrast, they harbored mutations in the p53 gene and over-expressed cyclin D1. Genomic instability among transformed cells at various stage of the carcinogenic process was examined based on frequencies of PALA resistance. Incidence of genomic instability was highest among established tumor cell lines relative to transformed, non-tumorigenic and control cell lines. Treatment of BEP2D cells with a 4 mM dose of the aminothiol WR-1065 significantly reduced their neoplastic transforming response to ⁵⁶Fe particles. This model provides an opportunity to study the cellular and molecular mechanisms involved in malignant transformation of human epithelial cells by heavy ions.     

The radiation continuum model of light and the Galilean invarianceof Maxwell's equations

The original basis for the Lorentz transformations, and thus special relativity, was the assumption that the observed velocity of interaction of light with matter represents a unique velocity of the electromagnetic wave. This arbitrary decision is not borne out by Maxwell's theories or by any test that might prove that EM energy actually travels in a continuum of velocities. The second postulate as stated by Einstein does not deserve the status of a postulate, as it is at once overly restrictive and ultimately phenomenological-the nature of c is based on experimental measurement rather than on analysis of first principles. The radiation continuum model's (RCM) modified second postulate, however, says nothing about the actual propagation of EM energy, but only of the relative speed with which it must interact with matter to be detected. Utilizing this modified light principle we obtain an intuitive Galilean form invariance for Maxwell's equations. RCM places no upper limit on attainable velocities, and allows for the possibility of communications between humans or particles at speeds far in excess of c. This precludes many of the compatibility problems between the highly successful quantum mechanics and relativity theory     

Force on a coil moving above a grid structure

The force on a coil moving with a high-speed parallel to a conducting grid consisting of parallel tubes is investigated. The coil performs a rebound motion or an oscillatory heave motion when pressed toward the grid by reactive on-board engines. The coil is approximated by two parallel wires moving parallel to the grid tubes. The corresponding electrodynamic problem is two dimensional and is solved by expansions in terms of Bessel functions. Expressions are derived for the lift and drag force as well as the heat generated in the tubes in the limit of strong skin effect. The dependence on the grid spacing is analysed in the approximation of no mutual inductance between the tubes. Two specific applications are a shunt deflecting the coil, and a funnel leading to multiple reflection. Finally, the varying magnetic flux threading the coil is considered and the thermal load of the coil is estimated.     

On the structure and dynamics of the thermosphere

Thermospheric temperature, composition and wind measurements from the Dynamics Explorer satellite (DE-2) are interpreted using a three dimensional, multiconstituent spectral model. The analysis accounts for tides driven by the absorbed solar radiation as well as energy and momentum coupling involving the magnetosphere and lower atmosphere. We discuss phenomena associated with the annual tide, polar circulation, magnetic storms and substorms.     

The biological clock of Neurospora in a microgravity environment.

The circadian rhythm of conidiation in Neurospora crassa is thought to be an endogenously derived circadian oscillation; however, several investigators have suggested that circadian rhythms may, instead, be driven by some geophysical time cue(s). An experiment was conducted on space shuttle flight STS-9 in order to test this hypothesis; during the first 7-8 cycles in space, there were several minor alterations observed in the conidiation rhythm, including an increase in the period of the oscillation, an increase in the variability of the growth rate and a diminished rhythm amplitude, which eventually damped out in 25% of the flight tubes. On day seven of flight, the tubes were exposed to light while their growth fronts were marked. Some aspect of the marking process reinstated a robust rhythm in all the tubes which continued throughout the remainder of the flight. These results from the last 86 hours of flight demonstrated that the rhythm can persist in space. Since the aberrant rhythmicity occurred prior to the marking procedure, but not after, it was hypothesized that the damping on STS-9 may have resulted from the hypergravity pulse of launch. To test this hypothesis, we conducted investigations into the effects of altered gravitational forces on conidiation. Exposure to hypergravity (via centrifugation), simulated microgravity (via the use of a clinostat) and altered orientations (via alterations in the vector of a 1 g force) were used to examine the effects of gravity upon the circadian rhythm of conidiation.     

In situ measurements to determine if Phobos is layered

The complex system of linear features on Phobos—the inner moon of Mars—found by the Viking Orbiters in 1976, can be classified morphologically into three types according to their appearance as well as their geometrical distribution on the surface. One kind of grooves appears to form arcs of small circles normal to the Phobos-Mars direction. We propose that these grooves are the surface manifestation of layering within Phobos[4–6] which could have been formed when Phobos was a part of a much larger and geologically active parent planet.Here we suggest some measurements to observe whether Phobos has a layered structure or not. The suggestion contains remote sensing measurements (particularly determination of the magnetic field by magnetometer and by electron reflection method) by a spacecraft orbiting around Mars as well as surface measurements (active seismic reflection experiment) by a landing module on Phobos.     

Current status and future plans for the general antiparticle spectrometer (GAPS)

We discuss current progress and future plans for the general antiparticle spectrometer experiment (GAPS). GAPS detects antideuterons through the X-rays and pions emitted during the deexcitation of exotic atoms formed when the antideuterons are slowed down and stopped in targets. GAPS provides an exceptionally sensitive means to detect cosmic-ray antideuterons. Cosmic-ray antideuterons can provide indirect evidence for the existence of dark matter in such form as neutralinos or Kaluza–Klein particles. We describe results of accelerator testing of GAPS prototypes, tentative design concepts for a flight GAPS detector, and near-term plans for flying a GAPS prototype on a balloon.     

Temperature comparison between CHAMP radio occultation and TIMED/SABER measurements in the lower stratosphere

Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver on the CHAllenging Mini-satellite Payload (CHAMP) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument, one of four on board the TIMED satellite, provide middle atmosphere temperature profiles by Radio Occultation (RO) and limb viewing infrared emission measurements, respectively. These temperature profiles retrieved by two different techniques in the stratosphere are compared with each other using more than 1300 correlative profiles in March, September and December 2005. The over-all mean differences averaged over 15 and 35 km are approximately −2 K and standard deviation is less than 3 K. Below 20 km of altitude, relatively small mean temperature differences ∼1 K are observed in wide latitudinal range except for June (during the SABER nighttime observation). In the middle to low latitudes, between 30°S and 30°N, the temperature difference increases with height from ∼0–1 K at 15 km, to ∼−4 K at 35 km of altitude. Large temperature differences about −4 to −6 K are observed between 60°S and 30°N and 31–35 km of altitude for all months and between 0° and 30°N below 16 km during June (nighttime).