基于"序列相对贴近度"的组合预测权值分配

在时间序列的组合预测权值分配问题上,为克服传统的均方误差倒数加权、熵权和最优化方法之不足,从预测值序列与评价样本序列间的贴近性出发,提出新方法综合衡量单一参与模型的适用性,并据此分配权值.详细给出了序列相对贴近度(SRND,Sequence Relative Nearness Degree)及与之相关的"序列趋势关联度"和"尺度区间熵"的概念,并提出基于SRND的权值分配方法.将SRND权值分配方法应用于航空发动机排气温度裕度参数时间序列的联合自回归滑动平均模型、函数系数自回归模型和径向基函数网络预测,有效地提高了预测准确度,获得优于均方误差倒数加权和熵权方法的组合性能,且运算量远小于最优化方法.     

Fluorescence microscopy as a tool for in situ life detection

The identification of extant and, in some cases, extinct bacterial life is most convincingly and efficiently performed with modern high-resolution microscopy. Epifluorescence microscopy of microbial autofluorescence or in conjunction with fluorescent dyes is among the most useful of these techniques. We explored fluorescent labeling and imaging of bacteria in rock and soil in the context of in situ life detection for planetary exploration. The goals were two-fold: to target non-Earth-centric biosignatures with the greatest possible sensitivity and to develop labeling procedures amenable to robotic implementation with technologies that are currently space qualified. A wide panel of commercially available dyes that target specific biosignature molecules was screened, and those with desirable properties (i.e., minimal binding to minerals, strong autofluorescence contrast, no need for wash steps) were identified. We also explored the potential of semiconductor quantum dots (QDs) as bacterial and space probes. A specific instrument for space implementation is suggested and discussed.     

The Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons (DAN) experiment for NASA's 2009 Mars Science Laboratory

We present a summary of the physical principles and design of the Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons (DAN) instrument onboard NASA's 2009 Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission. The DAN instrument will use the method of neutron-neutron activation analysis in a space application to study the abundance and depth distribution of water in the martian subsurface along the path of the MSL rover.     

Muon Observations

Muon observations are complementary to neutron monitor observations but there are some important differences in the two techniques. Unlike neutron monitors, muon telescope systems use coincidence techniques to obtain directional information about the arriving particle. Neutron monitor observations require simple corrections for pressure variations to compensate for the varying mass of atmospheric absorber over a site. In contrast, muon observations require additional corrections for the positive and negative temperature effects. Muon observations commenced many years before neutron monitors were constructed. Thus, muon data over a larger number of solar cycles is available to study solar modulation on anisotropies and other cosmic ray variations. The solar diurnal and semi-diurnal variations have been studied for many years. Using the techniques of Bieber and Chen it has been possible to derive the radial gradient, parallel mean-free path and symmetric latitude gradient of cosmic rays for rigidities <200 GV. The radial gradient varies with the 11-year solar activity cycle whereas the parallel mean-free path appears to vary with the 22-year solar magnetic cycle. The symmetric latitudinal gradient reverses at each solar polarity reversal. These results are in general agreement with predictions from modulation models. In undertaking these analyses the ratio of the parallel to perpendicular mean-free path must be assumed. There is strong contention in the literature about the correct value to employ but the results are sufficiently robust for this to be, at most, a minor problem. An asymmetric latitude gradient of highly variable nature has been found. These observations do not support current modulation models. Our view of the sidereal variation has undergone a revolution in recent times. Nagashima, Fujimoto and Jacklyn proposed a narrow Tail-In source anisotropy and separate Loss-Cone anisotropy as being responsible for the observed variations. A new analysis technique, more amenable to such structures, was developed by Japanese and Australian researchers. They confirmed the existence of the two anisotropies. However, they found that the Tail-In anisotropy is asymmetric and that both anisotropies had different positions from the prediction. Most 27-day modulations are observed at neutron monitor rigidities but not so readily at higher rigidities. An exception to this is the Isotropic Intensity Wave modulation observed in the early 1980s and again in 1991. This modulation is very strongly related to the heliospheric sector structure and implies a significantly different cosmic ray density on either side of the neutral sheet. The interpretation of most cosmic ray modulation phenomena requires good latitude coverage in both hemispheres. The closure of many muon observatories is a matter of concern. In the northern hemisphere a few new instruments are being constructed and spatial coverage is barely adequate. In the southern hemisphere the situation is far worse with the possibility that within a decade only the Mawson observatory in Antarctica will still be in operation. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modelling and simulation of the space mission MICROSCOPE

MICROSCOPE is a French space mission for testing the weak equivalence principle (WEP). The mission goal is the determination of the Eötvös parameter $\eta$ with an accuracy of 10^?15. The French space agency CNES is responsible for the satellite which is developed and produced within the Myriade series. The satellite's payload T-SAGE (Twin Space Accelerometer for Gravitation Experimentation) is developed and built by the French institute ONERA. It consists of two high-precision capacitive differential accelerometers. One accelerometer is used as reference sensor with two test masses of platinum, the science sensor contains a platinum and a titanium proof mass. The detection of the test mass movement and their control is done via a complex electrode system. As a member of the MICROSCOPE performance team, the German department ZARM will be involved in the data analysis of the MICROSCOPE mission. For this purpose, mission simulations and the preparation of the mission data evaluation in close cooperation with the French partners CNES, ONERA and OCA are realised. The development status of the simulation tool which will represent the complex spacecraft dynamics and all error sources in order to design and test data reduction procedures is presented and some features are discussed in detail.     

Mineral and nitrogen balance study: results of metabolic observations on Skylab II 28-day orbital mission

Prediction that the various stresses of flight, particularly weightlessness, would bring about significant derangements in the metabolism of the musculoskeletal system has been based on various observations of long-term immobilized or inactive bed rest. The only attempt at controlled measurement of metabolic changes in space prior to Skylab, a study during the 14-day Gemini VII flight, revealed rather modest losses of important elements. The three astronauts of Skylab II consumed a planned day-by-day, quite constant, dietary intake of major metabolic elements in mixed foods and beverages and provided virtually complete collections of excreta for 31 days preflight, during the 28 days inflight, and for 17 days postflight. Analyses showed that, in varying degree among the crewmen, urinary calcium increased gradually during flight in a pattern similar to that observed in bed-rest studies: the mean plateau peak of urinary calcium excretion in the latter part of flight was double preflight levels. Fecal calcium excretion did not change significantly, but calcium balance, owing to the urinary calcium rise, became either negative or less positive than in preflight measurement. Increased excretion and negative balance of nitrogen and phosphorus indicated appreciable loss of muscle tissue in all three crewmen. Significant losses also occurred inflight in potassium, sodium, and magnesium. Based on the similarity in pattern and degree between these observations and those in bed rest of the losses in calcium, phosphorus, and nitrogen, musculoskeletal integrity would not be threatened in space flights of up to at least 3 months. However, if similar changes occur, indicative of continuing losses of these elements, in the planned Skylab flights for considerably more than 28 days, concern for capable musculoskeletal function should be serious for flights of very many months' duration, and greater research attention will need to be given to development of protective counter-measures.     

Influence of ionic inorganic solutes on self-assembly and polymerization processes related to early forms of life: implications for a prebiotic aqueous medium

A commonly accepted view is that life began in a marine environment, which would imply the presence of inorganic ions such as Na+, Cl-, Mg2+, Ca2+, and Fe2+. We have investigated two processes relevant to the origin of life--membrane self-assembly and RNA polymerization--and established that both are adversely affected by ionic solute concentrations much lower than those of contemporary oceans. In particular, monocarboxylic acid vesicles, which are plausible models of primitive membrane systems, are completely disrupted by low concentrations of divalent cations, such as magnesium and calcium, and by high sodium chloride concentrations as well. Similarly, a nonenzymatic, nontemplated polymerization of activated RNA monomers in ice/eutectic phases (in a solution of low initial ionic strength) yields oligomers with > 80% of the original monomers incorporated, but polymerization in initially higher ionic strength aqueous solutions is markedly inhibited. These observations suggest that cellular life may not have begun in a marine environment because the abundance of ionic inorganic solutes would have significantly inhibited the chemical and physical processes that lead to self-assembly of more complex molecular systems.     

Effects of prolonged exposure to space flight factors for 175 days on lettuce seeds

We have studied the effects of prolonged (up to 175 days) exposure of $\text{Lactuca sativa}$ seeds to space flight factors, including primary cosmic radiation heavy ions. The data obtained evidence a significant fourfold increase ofs pontaneous mutagenesis in seeds both with regard to the total number of aberrant cells as well as the formation of single cells with multiple aberrations. Comparison of the present experiment with earlier works shows that the frequency of such aberrations increases with the duration of the flight.     

On the stability of spinning satellites

We study the directional stability of rigid and deformable spinning satellites in terms of two attitude angles. The linearized attitude motion of a free system about an assumed uniform-spin reference solution leads to a generic MGK system when the satellite is rigid or deformable. In terms of Lyapunov’s stability theory, we investigate the stability with respect to a subset of the variables. For a rigid body, the MGK system is 6-dimensional, i.e., 3 rotational and 3 translational variables. When flexible parts are present the system can have any arbitrary dimension. The 2×2 McIntyre–Myiagi stability matrix gives sufficient conditions for the attitude stability. A further development of this method has led to the Equivalent Rigid Body method. We propose an alternative practical method to establish sufficiency conditions for directional stability by using the Frobenius–Schur reduction formula. As practical applications we discuss a spinning satellite augmented with a spring–mass system and a rigid body appended with two cables and tip masses. In practice, the attitude stability must also be investigated when the spinning satellite is subject to a constant axial thrust. The generic format becomes MGKN as the thrust is a follower force. For a perfectly aligned thrust along the spin axis, Lyapunov’s indirect method remains valid also when deformable parts are present. We illustrate this case with an apogee motor burn in the presence of slag. When the thrust is not on the spin axis or not pointing parallel to the spin axis, the uniform-spin reference motion does not exist and none of the previous methods is applicable. In this case, the linearization may be performed about the initial state. Even when the linearized system has bounded solutions, the non-linear system can be unstable in general. We illustrate this situation by an instability that actually happened in-flight during a station-keeping maneuver of ESA’s GEOS-I satellite in 1979.