Using Precise Solar Limb Shape Measurements to Study the Solar Cycle

Despite 20 years of total solar irradiance measurements from space, the lack of high precision spatially resolved observations limits definitive answers to even simple questions like ``Are the solar irradiance changes caused solely by magnetic fields perturbing the radiative flux at the photosphere?" More subtle questions like how the aspheric structure of the sun changes with the magnetic cycle are only now beginning to be addressed with new tools like p-mode helioseismology. Solar 5-min oscillation studies have yielded precise information on the mean radial interior solar structure and some knowledge about the rotational and thermal solar asphericity. Unfortunately this progress has not been enough to generate a self-consistent theory for why the solar irradiance and luminosity vary with the magnetic cycle. We need sharper tools to describe and understand the sun's global aspheric response to its internal dynamo, and we need to be able to measure the solar cycle manifestation of the magnetic cycle on entropy transport from the interior to the photosphere in much the same way that we study the fundamentally more complex problem of magnetic flux transport from the solar interior. A space experiment called the Solar Physics Explorer for Radius, Irradiance and Shape (SPHERIS) and in particular its Astrometric and Photometric Telescope (APT) component will accomplish these goals.

     

CIR Morphology, Turbulence, Discontinuities, and Energetic Particles

Corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the middle heliosphere have distinct morphological features and associated patterns of turbulence and energetic particles. This report summarizes current understanding of those features and patterns, discusses how they can vary from case to case and with distance from the Sun and possible causes of those variations, presents an analytical model of the morphological features found in earlier qualitative models and numerical simulations, and identifies aspects of the features and patterns that have yet to be resolved. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Energetic Ions Observed at Low to High Latitudes in the Southern Heliosphere During Declining and Rising Solar Activity

We present and compare observations of energetic protons during the two first transits of the Ulysses spacecraft from low to high latitudes in the southern heliosphere. Protons in the energy range 1.8–3.8 MeV from the COSPIN experiment are studied for global trends and in relation to some ambient structures in the solar wind (corotating interaction region, forward/reverse shock). The global trends show the large dependence on the heliospheric condition and solar activity, including indications of a larger ambient particle population during the rising phase of solar activity and more efficient solar wind particle accelerators during the declining phase. More enhancements in the proton flux intensity are time associated with forward shocks than reverse contrary to first pass. Recurrent structures are found even during the second transit. Some latitude dependent periodicities are observed that could relate to the differential solar rotation. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Temporal and Spatial Variation of the Ion Composition in the Ring Current

A global view of the ring current ions is presented using data acquired by the instrument MICS onboard the CRRES satellite during solar maximum. The variations of differential intensities, energy spectra, radial profile of the energetic particles and the origin of the magnetic local time (MLT) asymmetry of the ring current have been investigated in detail. O⁺ ions are an important contributor to the storm time ring current. Its abundance in terms of number density increases with increasing geomagnetic activity as well as its energy density. However, a saturation value for the energy density of O⁺ ions has been found. The low-energy H⁺ ions show a dramatic intensification and a rapid decay. However, its density ratio during the storm maximum is almost constant. On the other hand, high-energy H⁺ ions first exhibit a flux decrease followed by a delayed increase. Its density ratio shows an anti-correlation with the storm intensity. Both the positions of the maximum flux of O⁺ and He⁺ depend on storm activity: they move to lower altitudes in the early stage of a storm and move back to higher L-values during the recovery phase. Whereas the position of H⁺ and He⁺⁺ show almost no dependence on the Dst index. The energy density distributions in radial distance and magnetic local time show drastic differences for different ion species. It demonstrates that the ring current asymmetry mainly comes from oxygen and helium ions, but not from protons. The outward motion of O⁺ around local noon may have some implications for oxygen bursts in the magnetosheath during IMF Bz negative conditions as observed by GEOTAIL.     

Performance measure for Markovian switching systems using best-fitting Gaussian distributions

This paper considers the theoretical posterior Cramer-Rao lower bound (PCRLB) for the case of tracking a manoeuvring target with Markovian switching dynamics. In a recent article [2] it was proposed to calculate the PCRLB conditional on the manoeuvre sequence and then determine the bound as a weighted average, giving an unconditional PCRLB. However, we demonstrate that this approach can produce an overly optimistic lower bound, because the sequence of manoeuvres is implicitly assumed known. Motivated by this, we develop a general approach and derive a closed-form estimate of the PCRLB in the case of Markovian switching systems. The basis of the approach is to, at each time step, replace the multi-modal prior target probability density function (pdf) with a best-fitting Gaussian (BFG) approximation. We present a recursive formula for calculating the mean and covariance of this Gaussian distribution, and demonstrate how the covariance increases as a result of the potential manoeuvres. We are then able to calculate the PCRLB for this BFG model using an existing Riccati-like recursion. Because of the BFG approximation, we are no longer guaranteed a bound and so we refer to our estimate as an "error performance measure" rather than a bound. The presented approach is applied both to filtering and smoothing cases. The simulation results indicate a very close agreement between the proposed performance measure and the error performance of an interacting multiple model estimator.     

Space weather and commercial airlines

Space weather phenomena can effect many areas of commercial airline operations including avionics, communications and GPS navigation systems. Of particular importance at present is the recently introduced EU legislation requiring the monitoring of aircrew radiation exposure, including any variations at aircraft altitudes due to solar activity. With the introduction of new ultra-long-haul “over-the-pole” routes, “more-electric” aircraft in the future, and the increasing use of satellites in the operation, the need for a better understanding of the space weather impacts on future airline operations becomes all the more compelling. This paper will present the various space weather effects, some provisional results of an ongoing 3-year study to monitor cosmic radiation in aircraft, and conclude by summarising some of the identified key operational issues, which must be addressed, with the help of the science community, if the airlines want to benefit from the availability of space weather services.     

Managing Complexity in an Autonomous Vehicle

Team Tormenta fielded an autonomous vehicle in the DARPA Grand Challenge 2005. Limiting the complexity of the autonomous system design, construction, and testing was crucial in rapidly designing a cost-effective working system. This approach allowed Team Tormenta to field a competitive vehicle on a low budget competing in the qualification trials.     

Model of effective heat conduction in polymer composite porous materials

A model and a technique for calculating polymer composite materials with an ellipsoid-shaped filler that take into account the influence of system porosity, particle anisodiametry and a boundary layer on the effective heat conduction are proposed. The results of calculations made by numerical methods are in a good agreement with the well-known statistic and Odolevskii, Maxwell, and Dul’nev matrix models.     

UWB Radar for Human Being Detection

UWB radar for detection and positioning of human beings in a complex environment has been developed and manufactured. The novelty of the radar lies in its large operational bandwidth (11.7 GHz at -10 dB level) combined with high time stability. Detection of respiratory movement of a person in laboratory conditions has been demonstrated. Based on experimental results, human being radar return has been analysed in the frequency band from 1 GHz to 12 GHz. The novel principle of human being detection is considered and verified experimentally.