可靠性灵敏度分析的一种偏倚蒙特卡罗方法

根据可靠性灵敏度分析的需求和特点,选择似然比方法作为基础的导数/梯度估计方法.立足经典可靠性系统和基于元件的蒙特卡罗方法,推导了原始蒙特卡罗仿真环境下的似然比导数估计方法.为加速仿真,进一步提出了一种偏倚技巧,该技巧在系统结构函数的基础上定义一个应用重要抽样的无偏估计量,并通过最小化该估计量的方差来获得最优偏倚参数值.该估计量拥有的一个重要优势是其方差优化任务可以分解到单个元件的层次上进行,从而避免了高维优化的难题.通过一个可解析求解的简单实例验证了似然比导数估计方法应用于可靠性灵敏度分析的有效性,以及所提出的偏倚技巧对于降低导数估计方差的有效性.对于所考虑的实例系统,提出的偏倚蒙特卡罗方法对各个感兴趣的量都给出了很好的估计,与原始蒙特卡罗方法相比,各个估计量的方差均降低了至少6个数量级.     

Physics of Magnetospheric Variability

Many widely used methods for describing and understanding the magnetosphere are based on balance conditions for quasi-static equilibrium (this is particularly true of the classical theory of magnetosphere/ionosphere coupling, which in addition presupposes the equilibrium to be stable); they may therefore be of limited applicability for dealing with time-variable phenomena as well as for determining cause-effect relations. The large-scale variability of the magnetosphere can be produced both by changing external (solar-wind) conditions and by non-equilibrium internal dynamics. Its developments are governed by the basic equations of physics, especially Maxwell’s equations combined with the unique constraints of large-scale plasma; the requirement of charge quasi-neutrality constrains the electric field to be determined by plasma dynamics (generalized Ohm’s law) and the electric current to match the existing curl of the magnetic field. The structure and dynamics of the ionosphere/magnetosphere/solar-wind system can then be described in terms of three interrelated processes: (1) stress equilibrium and disequilibrium, (2) magnetic flux transport, (3) energy conversion and dissipation. This provides a framework for a unified formulation of settled as well as of controversial issues concerning, e.g., magnetospheric substorms and magnetic storms.     

Field-based landcover classification using TerraSAR-X texture analysis

The present study aims to evaluate the field-based approach for the classification of landcover using high-resolution SAR data. TerraSAR-X (TSX) strip mode imagery, coupled with digital ortho-photos (DOPs) with 20 cm spatial resolution was used for landcover classification and parcel mapping respectively. Different filtering and analysis techniques were applied to extract textural information from the TSX image in order to assess the enhancement of the classification accuracy. Several attributes of parcels were derived from the available TSX images in order to define the most suitable parameters discriminating between different landcover types. Then, these attributes were further statistically analysed in order to define separability and thresholds between different landcover types. The results showed that textural analysis resulted in high classification accuracy. Hence, this paper confirms that integrated landcover classification using the textural information of TerraSAR-X has a high potential for landcover mapping.     

High-Precision Laboratory Measurements Supporting Retrieval of Water Vapor,Gaseous Ammonia,and Aqueous Ammonia Clouds with the Juno Microwave Radiometer (MWR)

The NASA Juno mission includes a six-channel microwave radiometer system (MWR) operating in the 1.3–50 cm wavelength range in order to retrieve abundances of ammonia and water vapor from the microwave signature of Jupiter (see Janssen et al. 2016). In order to plan observations and accurately interpret data from such observations, over 6000 laboratory measurements of the microwave absorption properties of gaseous ammonia, water vapor, and aqueous ammonia solution have been conducted under simulated Jovian conditions using new laboratory systems capable of high-precision measurement under the extreme conditions of the deep atmosphere of Jupiter (up to 100 bars pressure and 505 K temperature). This is one of the most extensive laboratory measurement campaigns ever conducted in support of a microwave remote sensing instrument. New, more precise models for the microwave absorption from these constituents have and are being developed from these measurements. Application of these absorption properties to radiative transfer models for the six wavelengths involved will provide a valuable planning tool for observations, and will also make possible accurate retrievals of the abundance of these constituents during and after observations are conducted.     

Radar-Derived Properties of the InSight Landing Site in Western Elysium Planitia on Mars

We carried out an assessment of surface and subsurface properties based on radar observations of the region in western Elysium Planitia selected as the landing site for the InSight mission. Using observations from Arecibo Observatory and from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter’s Shallow Radar (SHARAD), we examined the near-surface properties of the landing site, including characterization of reflectivity, near-surface roughness, and layering. In the Arecibo data (12.6-cm wavelength), we found a radar-reflective surface with no unusual properties that would cause problems for the InSight radar altimeter (7-cm wavelength). In addition, the moderately low backscatter strength is indicative of a relatively smooth surface at \({\sim} 10\mbox{-cm}\) scales that is composed of load-bearing materials and should not present a hazard for landing safety. For roughness at 10–100 m scales derived from SHARAD data, we find relatively low values in a narrow distribution, similar to those found at the Phoenix and Opportunity landing sites. The power of returns at InSight is similar to that at Phoenix and thus suggestive of near-surface layering, consistent with a layer of regolith over bedrock (e.g., lava flows) that is largely too shallow (\({<}10\mbox{--}20~\mbox{m}\)) for SHARAD to discern distinct reflectors. However, an isolated area outside of the ellipse chosen in 2015 for InSight’s landing shows faint returns that may represent such a contact at depths of \({\sim} 20\mbox{--}43~\mbox{m}\).     

Estimations of the Seismic Pressure Noise on Mars Determined from Large Eddy Simulations and Demonstration of Pressure Decorrelation Techniques for the Insight Mission

The atmospheric pressure fluctuations on Mars induce an elastic response in the ground that creates a ground tilt, detectable as a seismic signal on the InSight seismometer SEIS. The seismic pressure noise is modeled using Large Eddy Simulations (LES) of the wind and surface pressure at the InSight landing site and a Green’s function ground deformation approach that is subsequently validated via a detailed comparison with two other methods: a spectral approach, and an approach based on Sorrells’ theory (Sorrells, Geophys. J. Int. 26:71–82, 1971; Sorrells et al., Nat. Phys. Sci. 229:14–16, 1971). The horizontal accelerations as a result of the ground tilt due to the LES turbulence-induced pressure fluctuations are found to be typically \(\sim 2 \mbox{--} 40~\mbox{nm}/\mbox{s}^{2}\) in amplitude, whereas the direct horizontal acceleration is two orders of magnitude smaller and is thus negligible in comparison. The vertical accelerations are found to be \(\sim 0.1\mbox{--}6~\mbox{nm}/\mbox{s}^{2}\) in amplitude. These are expected to be worst-case estimates for the seismic noise as we use a half-space approximation; the presence at some (shallow) depth of a harder layer would significantly reduce quasi-static displacement and tilt effects.We show that under calm conditions, a single-pressure measurement is representative of the large-scale pressure field (to a distance of several kilometers), particularly in the prevailing wind direction. However, during windy conditions, small-scale turbulence results in a reduced correlation between the pressure signals, and the single-pressure measurement becomes less representative of the pressure field. The correlation between the seismic signal and the pressure signal is found to be higher for the windiest period because the seismic pressure noise reflects the atmospheric structure close to the seismometer.In the same way that we reduce the atmospheric seismic signal by making use of a pressure sensor that is part of the InSight Auxiliary Payload Sensor Suite, we also the use the synthetic noise data obtained from the LES pressure field to demonstrate a decorrelation strategy. We show that our decorrelation approach is efficient, resulting in a reduction by a factor of \(\sim 5\) in the observed horizontal tilt noise (in the wind direction) and the vertical noise. This technique can, therefore, be used to remove the pressure signal from the seismic data obtained on Mars during the InSight mission.     

Heliosheath Processes and the Structure of the Heliopause: Modeling Energetic Particles,Cosmic Rays,and Magnetic Fields

This paper summarizes the results obtained by the team “Heliosheath Processes and the Structure of the Heliopause: Modeling Energetic Particles, Cosmic Rays, and Magnetic Fields” supported by the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) in Bern, Switzerland. We focus on the physical processes occurring in the outer heliosphere, especially at its boundary called the heliopause, and in the local interstellar medium. The importance of magnetic field, charge exchange between neutral atoms and ions, and solar cycle on the heliopause topology and observed heliocentric distances to different heliospheric discontinuities are discussed. It is shown that time-dependent, data-driven boundary conditions are necessary to describe the heliospheric asymmetries detected by the Voyager spacecraft. We also discuss the structure of the heliopause, especially due to its instability and magnetic reconnection. It is demonstrated that the Rayleigh–Taylor instability of the nose of the heliopause creates consecutive layers of the interstellar and heliospheric plasma which are magnetically connected to different sources. This may be a possible explanation of abrupt changes in the galactic and anomalous cosmic ray fluxes observed by Voyager 1 when it was crossing the heliopause structure for a period of about one month in the summer of 2012. This paper also discusses the plausibility of fitting simulation results to a number of observational data sets obtained by in situ and remote measurements. The distribution of magnetic field in the vicinity of the heliopause is discussed in the context of Voyager measurements. It is argued that a classical heliospheric current sheet formed due to the Sun’s rotation is not observed by in situ measurements and should not be expected to exist in numerical simulations extending to the boundary of the heliosphere. Furthermore, we discuss the transport of energetic particles in the inner and outer heliosheath, concentrating on the anisotropic spatial diffusion diffusion tensor and the pitch-angle dependence of perpendicular diffusion and demonstrate that the latter can explain the observed pitch-angle anisotropies of both the anomalous and galactic cosmic rays in the outer heliosheath.     

Design and Performance of the ICON EUV Spectrograph

We present the design, implementation, and on-ground performance measurements of the Ionospheric Connection Explorer EUV spectrometer, ICON EUV, a wide field (\(17^{\circ}\times 12^{\circ}\)) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) imaging spectrograph designed to observe the lower ionosphere at tangent altitudes between 100 and 500 km. The primary targets of the spectrometer, which has a spectral range of 54–88 nm, are the Oii emission lines at 61.6 nm and 83.4 nm. Its design, using a single optical element, permits a $0\stackrel{{}^{°}}{.}26$ imaging resolution perpendicular to the spectral dispersion direction with a large (\(12^{\circ} \)) acceptance parallel to the dispersion direction while providing a slit-width dominated spectral resolution of \(R\sim25\) at 58.4 nm. Pre-flight calibration shows that the instrument has met all of the science performance requirements.     

The Juno Gravity Science Instrument

The Juno mission’s primary science objectives include the investigation of Jupiter interior structure via the determination of its gravitational field. Juno will provide more accurate determination of Jupiter’s gravity harmonics that will provide new constraints on interior structure models. Juno will also measure the gravitational response from tides raised on Jupiter by Galilean satellites. This is accomplished by utilizing Gravity Science instrumentation to support measurements of the Doppler shift of the Juno radio signal by NASA’s Deep Space Network at two radio frequencies. The Doppler data measure the changes in the spacecraft velocity in the direction to Earth caused by the Jupiter gravity field. Doppler measurements at X-band (\(\sim 8\) GHz) are supported by the spacecraft telecommunications subsystem for command and telemetry and are used for spacecraft navigation as well as Gravity Science. The spacecraft also includes a Ka-band (\(\sim 32\) GHz) translator and amplifier specifically for the Gravity Science investigation contributed by the Italian Space Agency. The use of two radio frequencies allows for improved accuracy by removal of noise due to charged particles along the radio signal path.