Estimation of Correlation Functions by Stochastic Approximation

Two techniques for estimating the correlation function of a stationary random process using the method of stochastic approximation are developed. Both provide updated estimates as successive T-second observations are processed. Both assume a functional form for the correlation function that depends on a number of parameters that are estimated. One technique is based on the mean-square error; the other maximizes a likelihood function. Examples are included.     

Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

Optimum Number of Stages in a Staged Vehicle

The problem of optimum partitioning of a staged vehicle (SV) and determination of the minimal number of stages to provide for a maximum velocity in the vertical SV motion in a homogeneous gravity field is considered at a given value of payload mass.     

Interplanetary shock waves: Ulysses observations in and out of the ecliptic plane

Between its launch in October 1990 and the end of 1993, approximately 160 fast collisionless shock waves were observed in the solar wind by the Ulysses space probe. During the in-ecliptic part of the mission, to February 1992, the observed shock waves were first caused mainly by solar transient events following the solar maximum and the reorganisation of the large scale coronal fields. With the decay in solar activity, relatively stable Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) were observed betwen 3 and 5.4 AU, each associated with at least one forwardreverse shock pair. During the out-of-ecliptic phase of the orbit, from February 1992 onwards, CIRs and shock pairs associated with them continued to dominate the observations. From July 1992, Ulysses encountered the fast solar wind flow from the newly developed southern polar coronal hole, and from May 1993 remained in the unipolar magnetic region associated with this coronal hole. At latitudes beyond 30°, CIRs were associated almost exclusively with reverse shocks only. A comprehensive list of shock waves identified in the magnetic field and solar wind plasma data from Ulysses is given in Table 1. The principal characteristics were determined mainly from the magnetic field data. General considerations concerning the determination of shock characteristics are outlined in the Introduction.     

Co2 and Climate: a Geologist's View

Climate is discussed as an integral part of System Earth, determined by a complex interplay of numerous geological, biological and solar processes. The historical and geological record of changing climate and atmospheric CO₂ pressure does not support the current popular vision that this greenhouse gas is the dominant climate controlling agent. When empirically ante post tested against past global climate changes, the forecasts of the climate models mainly based on forcing by atmospheric CO₂ are not borne out. On the other hand, recent studies show that solar variability rather than changing CO₂ pressure is an important, probably the dominant climate forcing factor.     

Diurnal and seasonal variations in long-term changes in the E-layer critical frequency

Long-term changes in the E-layer critical frequency, foE, at three stations of the European region (Juliusruh, Slough and Rome) and also at Moscow and Wakkanai stations are analyzed by the method developed by the authors and described in detail in the previous papers. It is found that Juliusruh and Slough stations demonstrate a well-pronounced change in foE (a trend) during two previous decades. At the same time, the same features of the behavior of the aforementioned trend k(foE) are obtained. The trend is positive and negative in the morning and evening hours, respectively. Similar diurnal behavior of k(foE) is found also for Moscow station but with lower absolute values of the trends. A well-pronounced seasonal behavior of k(foE) is detected at Juliusruh and Slough: the trend is minimal and maximal in the summer period and at the end of fall—beginning of winter, respectively. The maximal amplitude in the morning hours reaches +0.04?MHz per year, whereas the minimal amplitude in evening hours is ?0.06?MHz per year. No systematic changes exceeding by the magnitude 0.01?MHz per year are found for Rome and Wakkanai stations. It is assumed that the observed trends are related to changes (trends) in the meridional wind bringing NO molecules from the auroral oval to lower latitudes.     

Individual differences in susceptibility to motion sickness among six Skylab astronauts

One of the Skylab experiments dealt with motion sickness, comparing susceptibility in the workshop aloft with susceptibility preflight and postflight. Tests were conducted on and after mission-day 8 (MD 8) by which time the astronauts were adapted to working conditions. Stressful accelerations were generated by requiring the astronauts, with eyes covered, to execute standardized head movements (front, back, left, and right) while in a chair that could be rotated at angular velocities up to 30 rpm. The selected endpoint was either 150 discrete head movements or a very mild level of motion sickness. In all rotation experiments aloft, the five astronauts tested (astronaut 1 did not participate) were virtually symptom free, thus demonstrating lower susceptibility aloft than in preflight and postflight tests on the ground when symptoms were always elicited. Inasmuch as the eyes were covered and the canalicular stimuli were the same aloft as on the ground, it would appear that lifting the stimulus to the otolith organs due to gravity was an important factor in reducing susceptibility to motion sickness even though the transient stimuli generated under the test conditions were substantial and abnormal in pattern. Some of the astronauts experienced motion sickness under operational conditions aloft or after splashdown, but attention is centered chiefly on symptoms manifested in zero gravity. None of the Skylab-II crew (astronauts 1 to 3) was motion sick aloft. Astronaut 6 of the Skylab-III crew (astronauts 4 to 6) experienced motion sickness within an hour after transition into orbit; this constitutes the earliest such diagnosis on record under orbital flight conditions. The eliciting stimuli were associated with head and body movements, and astronaut 6 obtained relief by avoiding such movements and by one dose of the drug combination 1-scopolamine 0.35 mg + d-amphetamine 5.0 mg. All three astronauts of Skylab-III experienced motion sickness in the workshop where astronaut 6 was most susceptible and astronaut 4, least susceptible. The higher susceptibility of SL-III crewmen in the workshop, as compared with SL-II crewmen, may be attributable to the fact that they were based in the command module less than one-third as long as SL-II crewmen. The unnatural movements, often resembling acrobatics, permitted in the open spaces of the workshop revealed the great potentialities in weightlessness for generating complex interactions of abnormal or unusual vestibular and visual stimuli. Symptoms were controlled by body restraint and by drugs, but high susceptibility to motion sickness persisted for 3 days and probably much longer; restoration was complete on MD 7. From the foregoing statements it is clear that on and after MD 8 the susceptibility of SL-II and SL-III crewmen to motion sickness under experimental conditions was indistinguishable. The role played by the acquisition of adaptation effects prior to MD 8 is less clear and is a subject to be discussed.     

Magnetospheric Science Objectives of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Juno</Emphasis> Mission

In July 2016, NASA’s Juno mission becomes the first spacecraft to enter polar orbit of Jupiter and venture deep into unexplored polar territories of the magnetosphere. Focusing on these polar regions, we review current understanding of the structure and dynamics of the magnetosphere and summarize the outstanding issues. The Juno mission profile involves (a) a several-week approach from the dawn side of Jupiter’s magnetosphere, with an orbit-insertion maneuver on July 6, 2016; (b) a 107-day capture orbit, also on the dawn flank; and (c) a series of thirty 11-day science orbits with the spacecraft flying over Jupiter’s poles and ducking under the radiation belts. We show how Juno’s view of the magnetosphere evolves over the year of science orbits. The Juno spacecraft carries a range of instruments that take particles and fields measurements, remote sensing observations of auroral emissions at UV, visible, IR and radio wavelengths, and detect microwave emission from Jupiter’s radiation belts. We summarize how these Juno measurements address issues of auroral processes, microphysical plasma physics, ionosphere-magnetosphere and satellite-magnetosphere coupling, sources and sinks of plasma, the radiation belts, and the dynamics of the outer magnetosphere. To reach Jupiter, the Juno spacecraft passed close to the Earth on October 9, 2013, gaining the necessary energy to get to Jupiter. The Earth flyby provided an opportunity to test Juno’s instrumentation as well as take scientific data in the terrestrial magnetosphere, in conjunction with ground-based and Earth-orbiting assets.