Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

Transport modeling of energetic electrons in the inner magnetosphere with synchrotron energy losses

The resulting L-distributions and energy spectra of energetic magnetospheric electrons obtained from numerical solution of the radiation belt transport equation with and without accounting for electron synchrotron energy losses are compared. It is demonstrated that synchrotron losses play an important role in formation of the space and energetic distributions of electrons in the inner magnetosphere.     

Substorms in the inner plasma sheet

Thin Current Sheets (TCS) are regularly formed prior to substorm breakup, even in the near-Earth plasma sheet, as close as the geostationary orbit. A self-consistent kinetic theory describing the response of the plasma sheet to an electromagnetic perturbation is given. This perturbation corresponds to an external forcing, for instance caused by the solar wind (not an internal instability). The equilibrium of the configuration of this TCS in the presence of a time varying perturbation is shown to produce a strong parallel thermal anisotropy (T T) of energetic electrons and ions (E>50keV) as well as an enhanced diamagnetic current carried by low energy ions (E<50keV). Both currents tend to enhance the confinement of this current sheet near the magnetic equator. These results are compared with data gathered by GEOS-2 at the geostationary orbit, where the magnetic signatures of TCS, and parallel anisotropics are regularly observed prior to breakup. By ensuring quasi-neutrality everywhere we find, when low frequency electromagnetic perturbations are applied, that although the magnetic field line remains an equipotential to the lowest order in T_e/T_i, a field-aligned potential drop exists to the next order in (T_e/T_i). Thus the development of a TCS implies the formation of a field-aligned potential drop ( few hundred volts) to ensure the quasi-neutrality everywhere. For an earthward directed pressure gradient, a field-aligned electric field, directed towards the ionosphere, is obtained, on the western edge of the perturbation (i.e. western edge of the current sheet). Thus field aligned beams of electrons are expected to flow towards the equatorial region on the western edge of the current sheet. We study the stability of these electron beams and show that they are unstable to “High Frequency” (HF) waves. These “HF” waves are regularly observed at frequencies of the order of the proton gyrofrequency (f_H+) just before, or at breakup. The amplitude of these HF waves is so large that they can produce a strong pitch-angle diffusion of energetic ions and a spatial diffusion that leads to a reduction of the diamagnetic current. The signature of a fast ion diffusion is indeed regularly observed during the early breakup; it coincides with the sudden development of large amplitude transient fluctuations, ballooning modes, observed at much lower frequencies (fH+). These results suggest that the HF waves, generated by field-aligned electron beams, provide the dissipation which is necessary to destabilize low frequency (ballooning) modes.     

Study of cosmic rays and light flashes on board Space Station MIR: the SilEye experiment.

The SilEye experiment aims to study the cause and processes related to the anomalous Light Flashes (LF) perceived by astronauts in orbit and their relation with Cosmic Rays. These observations will be also useful in the study of the long duration manned space flight environment. Two PC-driven silicon detector telescopes have been built and placed aboard Space Station MIR. SilEye-1 was launched in 1995 and provided particles track and LF information; the data gathered indicate a linear dependence of FLF(Hz) ( 4 2) 10(3) 5.3 1.7 10(4) Fpart(Hz) if South Atlantic Anomaly fluxes are not included. Even though higher statistic is required, this is an indication that heavy ion interactions with the eye are the main LF cause. To improve quality and quantity of measurements, a second apparatus, SilEye-2, was placed on MIR in 1997, and started work from August 1998. This instrument provides energetic information, which allows nuclear identification in selected energy ranges; we present preliminary measurements of the radiation field inside MIR performed with SilEye-2 detector in June 1998.     

Local-area helioseismology as a diagnostic tool for solar variability

Dynamical and thermal variations of the internal structure of the Sun can affect the energy flow and result in variations in irradiance at the surface. Studying variations in the interior is crucial for understanding the mechanisms of the irradiance variations. “Global” helioseismology based on analysis of normal mode frequencies, has helped to reveal radial and latitudinal variations of the solar structure and dynamics associated with the solar cycle in the deep interior. A new technique, - “local-area” helioseismology or heliotomography, offers additional potentially important diagnostics by providing three-dimensional maps of the sound speed and flows in the upper convection zone. These diagnostics are based on inversion of travel times of acoustic waves which propagate between different points on the solar surface through the interior. The most significant variations in the thermodynamic structure found by this method are associated with sunspots and complexes of solar activity. The inversion results provide evidence for areas of higher sound speed beneath sunspot regions located at depths of 4–20 Mm, which may be due to accumulated heat or magnetic field concentrations. However, the physics of these structures is not yet understood. Heliotomography also provides information about large-scale stable longitudinal structures in the solar interior, which can be used in irradiance models. This new diagnostic tool for solar variability is currently under development. It will require both a substantial theoretical and modeling effort and high-resolution data to develop new capabilities for understanding mechanisms of solar variability.     

The SOHO CELIAS/SEM EUV database from SC23 minimum to the present

The SOHO Solar EUV Monitor has been in operation since December 1995 onboard the SOHO spacecraft. This instrument is a highly stable transmission grating solar extreme ultraviolet spectrometer. It has made nearly continuous full disk solar irradiance measurements both within an 8 nm bandpass centered at 30.4 nm and throughout the 0.1 to 50 nm solar flux region since launch. The 30.4 nm flux, the 0.1 to 50 nm flux and the extracted soft X-ray (0.1 to 5 nm) flux are presented and compared with the behavior of solar proxies.     

Great solar bursts of October 19, 22 and 23, 1989

Itapetinga measurements at 48 GHz with the multibeam technique are used to determine the relative position of solar burst centroid of emission with high spatial accuracy and time resolution. For the Great Bursts of October 19,22, 1989, with a large production of relativistic particles, and October 23, it is suggested that, at 48 GHz, the bursts might have originated in more then one source in space and time. Additionally the October 19 and 22 Ground Level Events exhibited very unusual intensity-time profiles including double component structures for the onset phase. The Bern observatory spectral radio emission data show a strong spectral flattening typical for large source inhomogeneties. The interpretation for this is that large solar flares are a superposition of a few strong bursts (separated both in space and time) in the same flaring region.     

High energy particle dispersion events observed by interball-1 and -2

Time period from October 1996 until January 1998 was checked on high energy resolution DOK2 energetic particle instrument measurements on Interball-1 and Interball-2 for the ion (> 20 keV) dispersive events (EDIS) with the exclusion of Interball-1 orbit parts in the tail. A variety of energy dispersive events, both in ion and electron spectra with different duration is found in the auroral regions, in the outer magnetosphere and near the cusp. While EDIS were observed in all sectors of MLT, the best conditions for their observation were in the afternoon local time. The characteristics of dispersive events observed by DOK2 are consistent with their explanation by the gradient-curvature drift of particles from the injection point(s) in the night local time sector given in Lutsenko at al., 2000a, b.     

Cyclic variations in the solar lower atmosphere

The Ca K line has been measured regularly nearly every month since 1974 at Kitt Peak. It is well known that the K₁ component of the Ca K line is formed in the temperature minimum region (TMR) of the solar atmosphere. Our study of the data of CaII K profiles over two solar cycles indicates that both in full disc integrated spectra and in center disc spectra, the distance between the red K₁ and the blue K₁ of the profiles and its average intensity show periodic variations. But the variation for the full disc integrated spectra fluctuates in the same way as the sunspot number does, while that for the center disc spectra has a time delay with respect to sunspot number. Non-LTE computations yield a cyclic temperature variation of about 17 K of the TMR in the quiet-Sun atmosphere and a cyclic variation of about 15–20 km in the height position of the TMR.     

INTERBALL statistical study of ion flow fluctuations in the plasma sheet

We use ion distribution measurements with CORALL instrument on-board the INTERBALL/Tail spacecraft to study plasma flows in the mid-tail (−9> X> −27 R_E) plasma sheet. Three velocity components computed every 2 minutes exhibit two types of velocity variations: Earthward bursty bulk flows (BBFs) and random flow fluctuations. Their properties are in a good agreement with the observations of the ISEE-2 spacecraft (Borovsky et al., 1997). The INTERBALL/Tail spacecraft configuration favors measurements of V_z component, in contrast to previous experiments in which only V_x and V_y were measured reliably. In the outer part of the plasma sheet V_y and V_z fluctuations were close to each other (variances σ(V_y) and σ(V_z) were about 160 and 110 km/s, respectively), but in the inner part at the dusk flank amplitude of V_y fluctuations increased and was 2 times higher than that of V_z component. This asymmetry of fluctuations should be taken into account during modern theoretical analysis and simulations.