Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

Imaging the solar corona in the EUV

The SOHO (SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory) satellite was launched on December 2nd 1995. After arriving at the Earth-Sun (L1) Lagrangian point on February 14th 1996, it began to continuously observe the Sun. As one of the instruments onboard SOHO, the EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the Sun's corona in 4 EUV wavelengths. The He II filter at 304 Å images the chromosphere and the base of the transition region at a temperature of 5 − 8 × 10⁴ K; the Fe IX–X filter at 171 Å images the corona at a temperature of 1.3 × 10⁶ K; the Fe XII filter at 195 Å images the quiet corona outside coronal holes at a temperature of 1.6 × 10⁶ K; and the Fe XV filter at 284 Å images active regions with a temperature of 2.0 × 10⁶ K. About 5000 images have been obtained up to the present. In this paper, we describe also some aspects of the telescope and the detector performance for application in the observations. Images and movies of all the wavelengths allow a look at different phenomena present in the Sun's corona, and in particular, magnetic field reconnection.     

A solar type U burst in the decimetric range

This paper analyzes a Type U burst at 1.0 – 2.8 GHz which occurred between 12:36:26 – 12:36:32 UT on 1992 August 22, observed by Ond ejov Observatory, Czech Republic. This may be the first example of Type U bursts in the decimetric range, as far as we know. From analysis we came to the following conclusion: (1) The frequency drift rates of the ascending and descending branches are 1.25 and 0.225 GHz/s, respectively, and the velocities of the electron beam are 0.38 c and 0.26 c, respectively; (2) The burst decay of the ascending branch is larger than that of the descending branch; (3) The variations of the maximum frequencies of instantaneous spectra with time appear as from the highest (1.92 GHz) to the lowest (1.0 GHz), then toward higher frequency (1.53 GHz) (this is consistent with that predicted by plasma emission theory); (4) The bandwidths of the ascending branch are about twice that of the descending branch (this may be caused by the larger drift rates of the ascending branch); (5) The temperature of the coronal loop apex is 6.3 × 10⁶ K; (6) The magnetic field at the top of the loop is greater than 9.2 G; (7) This U burst emission is plasma radiation at the second harmonic.     

Airglow

A review is given of the present state of the problem of upper atmospheric emission, in relation to the processes which take place in that region. Translated by the Express Translation Service, Wimbledon, London, W-2.     

Dynamical theory of the solar wind

This paper is a review of the basic theoretical dynamical properties of an atmosphere with an extended temperature strongly bound by gravity. The review begins with the historical developments leading up to the realization that the only dynamical equilibrium of an atmosphere with extended temperature is supersonic expansion. It is shown that sufficient conditions for supersonic expansion are T(r) declining asymptotically less rapidly than 1/r, or the density at the base of the corona being less than N _b given by (40) if no energy is available except through thermal conductivity, or the temperature falling within the limits given by (18) if T N ^-1 throughout the corona. Less extended temperatures lead to equilibria which are subsonic or static. The hypothetical case of a corona with no energy supply other than thermal conduction from its base is considered at some length because the equations may be solved by analytical methods and illustrate the transition from subsonic to supersonic equilibrium as the temperature becomes more extended. Comparison with the actual corona shows that the solar corona is actively heated for some distance into space by wave dissipation.The dynamical stability of the expanding atmosphere is demonstrated, and in a later section the radial propagation of acoustic and Alfvén waves through the atmosphere and wind is worked out. The calculations show that the magnetometer will probably detect waves more easily than the plasma instrument, but that both are needed to determine the mode and direction of the wave. An observer in the wind at the orbit of Earth can listen to disturbances generated in the corona near the sun and in turbulent regions in interplanetary space.The possibility that the solar corona is composed of small-scale filaments near the sun is considered. It is shown that such filamentary structure would not be seen at the orbit of Earth. It is pointed out that the expansion of a non-filamentary corona seems to lead to too high a calculated wind density at the orbit of Earth to agree with the present observations, unless T(r) is constant or increases with r. A filamentary corona, on the other hand, would give the observed wind density for declining T(r).It is shown that viscosity plays no important role in the expansion of an atmosphere either with or without a weak magnetic field. The termination of the solar wind, presumably between 10–10³ AU, is discussed briefly. The interesting development here is the interplanetary L recently observed, which may come from the interstellar neutral hydrogen drifting into the outer regions of the solar wind.Theory is at the present time concerned with the general dynamical principles which pertain to the expansion equilibrium of an atmosphere. It is to be expected that the rapid progress of direct observations of the corona and wind will soon permit more detailed studies to be carried out. It is important that the distinction between detailed empirical models and models intended to illustrate general principles be kept clearly in mind at all times.This work was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant NASA-NsG-96-60.     

Future investigations onboard Soviet biosatellites of the Cosmos series.

Many rat experiments onboard Cosmos biosatellites have furnished information concerning the effects of weightlessness, artificial gravity, and ionizing radiation combined with weightlessness on structural and biochemical parameters of the animal body. The necessity to expand the scope of physiological investigations has led to the project of flight primate studies. It is planned to carry out the first primate experiments onboard the Cosmos biosatellite in 1982. At present investigations of weightlessness effects on the cardiovascular and vestibular systems, higher nervous activity, skeletal muscles and biorhythms of two rhesus monkeys are being developed and tested. It is also planned to conduct a study of weightlessness effects on embryogenesis of rats and bioenergetics of living systems onboard the same biosatellite. Further experiments onboard Cosmos biosatellites are planned.     

Phugoid oscillations in optimal reentry trajectories

A major problem with operations of lifting reentry vehicle having an aft center-of-gravity location due to large engine mass at the rear is the required hypersonic trim to fight the desired trajectory. This condition is most severe for lifting maneuvers. As a first step toward analyzing this problem, this paper considers the lift requirement for some basic maneuvers in the plane of a great circle. Considerations are given to optimal lift control for achieving the maximization of either the final altitude, speed or range. For the maximum-range problem, phugoid oscillation along an optimal trajectory is less severe as compared to a glide with maximum lift-to-drag ratio. An explicit formula for the number of oscillations for an entry from orbital speed is proposed.     

Superlight rotating reflectors in space

There is a general possibility of creation in space of large controlled mirror reflectors for solar and electromagnetic radiation with specific mass order of 1 g m^?2 or less. Such reflectors may be used in space energetics for concentration of solar energy for its further conversion into microwave beam and transmission to the Earth. They can also be used to illuminate the Earth surface in a dark period with reflected sunlight, to control the weather, for research work and some other purposes. Such reflector is a good solar sail. The control of its orientation and position in space is performed using solar energy and light pressure without spending fuel delivered from the Earth. Its form is maintained by centrifugal forces and light pressure. The film strength permits concentrators with radii of several kilometres and nearly flat reflectors for lighting applications with radii of hundreds of metres. Large series of identical reflectors can be built in space using superthin film tape at assembly station. For a year more than a hundred reflectors with a diameter of 600 m can be assembled at such a station. The assembly station can be placed at the height of 1000 km. The reflectors transfer to synchronous or other orbit is performed using their sail-likeness. For realization of such reflectors one should solve a very difficult problem of superthin film mass production as well as assembly technology problems. Careful study and experimental checks of their lifetime should be also made.     

Coronal mass ejection detection using wavelets,curvelets and ridgelets: Applications for space weather monitoring

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions of plasma and magnetic field that can produce adverse space weather at Earth and other locations in the Heliosphere. Due to the intrinsic multiscale nature of features in coronagraph images, wavelet and multiscale image processing techniques are well suited to enhancing the visibility of CMEs and suppressing noise. However, wavelets are better suited to identifying point-like features, such as noise or background stars, than to enhancing the visibility of the curved form of a typical CME front. Higher order multiscale techniques, such as ridgelets and curvelets, were therefore explored to characterise the morphology (width, curvature) and kinematics (position, velocity, acceleration) of CMEs. Curvelets in particular were found to be well suited to characterising CME properties in a self-consistent manner. Curvelets are thus likely to be of benefit to autonomous monitoring of CME properties for space weather applications.