Assessment of the close approach frequency and collision probability for satellites in different configurations of large constellations

The Earth orbital environment is drastically changing due to an intensification of the space activities. In particular, several projects of large constellations, proposed for the next years for communications purpose like global internet access, Internet of Things, or for Earth observations, will lead to the deployment of several thousands of new satellites at an unprecedented rate. It is a crucial challenge for space traffic management, which will deal with a great number of satellite conjunctions, potentially causing a collision with damaging consequences for the constellation itself and the space environment sustainability.In this paper, we investigate the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability for each referenced constellation. For this purpose, we compute the orbital evolution of satellites in different constellations during the lifecycle, from the deployment to the decommissioning, and we apply the CUBE algorithm and the Foster method to assess the collision probability with the background space debris population assuming a constant uncertainty in position. We show the variation of risk defined by the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability as a function of the proposed configuration. In particular, satellites of the Iridium and Kuiper constellation, but also satellite of the Telesat constellation on polar orbits are the most exposed at a collision. Moreover, the decommissioning phase contribute for a major part to the final cumulative collision probability.     

A survey of safety separation management and collision avoidance approaches of civil UAS operating in integration national airspace system

Recent years have witnessed a booming of the industry of civil Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS). As an emerging industry, the UAS industry has been attracting great attention from governments of all countries and the aviation industry. UAS are highly digitalized, informationized, and intelligent; therefore, their integration into the national airspace system has become an important trend in the development of civil aviation. However, the complexity of UAS operation poses great challenges to the traditional aviation regulatory system and technical means. How to prevent collisions between UASs and between UAS and manned aircraft to achieve safe and efficient operation in the integrated operating airspace has become a common challenge for industry and academia around the world. In recent years, the international community has carried out a great amount of work and experiments in the air traffic management of UAS and some of the key technologies. This paper attempts to make a review of the UAS separation management and key technologies in collision avoidance in the integrated airspace, mainly focusing on the current situation of UAS Traffic Management (UTM), safety separation standards, detection system, collision risk prediction, collision avoidance, safety risk assessment, etc., as well as an analysis of the bottlenecks that the current researches encountered and their development trends, so as to provide some insights and references for further research in this regard. Finally, this paper makes a further summary of some of the research highlights and challenges.     

Space traffic control: a view of the future

This paper provides an overview of a system for providing reliable, ongoing, timely situational awareness services to satellite operators. Such services would include close approach warnings, warnings of potential radio frequency interference, and other offerings designed to help make operators aware of possible threats to the safe operation of their spacecraft and measures they can take to lessen these threats. The paper discusses current trends, proposes operational requirements, and speculates on the type of organization that may emerge to provide space traffic control services. It highlights how the detailed information required for such services may affect the evolution of the use of space.     

A novel biased proportional navigation guidance law for close approach phase

A novel biased proportional navigation guidance (BPNG) law is proposed for the close approach phase, which aims to make the spacecraft rendezvous with the target in specific relative range and direction. Firstly, in order to describe the special guidance requirements, the concept of zero effort miss vector is proposed and the dangerous area where there exists collision risk for safety consideration is defined. Secondly, the BPNG, which decouples the range control and direc-tion control, is designed in the line-of-sight (LOS) rotation coordinate system. The theoretical anal-ysis proves that BPNG meets guidance requirements quite well. Thirdly, for the consideration of fuel consumption, the optimal biased proportional navigation guidance (OBPNG) law is derived by solving the Schwartz inequality. Finally, simulation results show that BPNG is effective for the close approach with the ability of evading the dangerous area and OBPNG consumes less fuel compared with BPNG.     

基于火箭橇的无人机碰撞民用飞机试验技术研究

无人机碰撞民用飞机关键部位损伤程度的研究是民航领域关注的新型热点问题。本文首次提出采用 火箭橇试验评估无人机碰撞民用飞机的安全性。通过对碰撞速度、碰撞位置、无人机姿态、参数测量等进行研 究,设计碰撞技术方案,论述火箭橇的设计、弹道控制设计、强度校核和测试方案,并进行试验验证和仿真计算。 结果表明:本文设计的火箭橇碰撞试验方案是可行的,实现了单一弹道上的连续多点碰撞及多视角、全覆盖、高 稳定的全过程记录;可为后续开展同类碰撞试验提供必要的技术参考,所开展的多发次碰撞试验也为无人机碰 撞民用飞机的安全性评估提供了有效的试验数据。     

A strategic flight conflict avoidance approach based on a memetic algorithm

Conflict avoidance （CA） plays a crucial role in guaranteeing the airspace safety. The cur- rent approaches, mostly focusing on a short-term situation which eliminates conflicts via local adjust- ment, cannot provide a global solution. Recently, long-term conflict avoidance approaches, which are proposed to provide solutions via strategically planning traffic flow from a global view, have attracted more attentions. With consideration of the situation in China, there are thousands of flights per day and the air route network is large and complex, which makes the long-term problem to be a large-scale combinatorial optimization problem with complex constraints. To minimize the risk of premature convergence being faced by current approaches and obtain higher quality solutions, in this work, we present an effective strategic framework based on a memetic algorithm （MA）, which can markedly improve search capability via a combination of population-based global search and local improve- ments made by individuals. In addition, a specially designed local search operator and an adaptive local search frequency strategy are proposed to improve the solution quality. Furthermore, a fast genetic algorithm （GA） is presented as the global optimization method. Empirical studies using real traffic data of the Chinese air route network and daily flight plans show that our approach outper- formed the existing approaches including the GA .based approach and the cooperative coevolution based approach as well as some well-known memetic algorithm based approaches.     

基于比例导引角度线性化的无人机避障研究

基于无人机与障碍物之间的几何关系,在极坐标系下建立了无人机与障碍物之间的运动学方程,通过引入基于角度线性化的比例导引律,使无人机能够顺利避开障碍物。引入的基于角度线性化的比例导引律是关于无人机相对速度航向角与避障点视线角的函数,由比例函数及偏差函数组成。为解决初始时刻相对速度航向角不满足引入导引律的问题,在调节函数中加入了指数项。通过稳定性证明,得到了满足要求的导引律参数取值范围。最后对设计的避障算法进行了仿真,仿真结果验证了算法的有效性。     

简单二体引力模型用于空间目标轨道面交线确定的效果分析

在空间目标碰撞预警分析中，准确地计算出空间目标的轨道面交线是进行地心距筛选、时间差筛选的前提，目前较多使用的快速确定轨道面交线的方法为简单二体引力模型。深入分析该模型，比较了其计算的空间目标轨道面交线与STK计算结果的差异，指出了简单二体引力模型在计算空间目标轨道面交线时的局限性，认为轨道摄动是影响轨道面交线计算准确性的主要原因，应该采用更能反映空间目标实际运动规律的改进的二体引力模型的方法。     

超静超稳卫星碰振动力学建模

针对分离式卫星载荷模块(PM)受到扰动时可能与服务模块(SM)发生碰撞的问题，综合音圈电机反电动势(back-EMF)和柔性线缆动力学的效应，基于牛顿欧拉法建立了分离式卫星(DFP)载荷模块动力学模型。基于Hertz接触理论，推导了分离式卫星碰撞过程中连续接触力模型，并分析了碰撞过程中产生的接触力对载荷模块指向精度和指向稳定度的影响。数值仿真结果表明，碰撞使得载荷模块指向精度和指向稳定度下降5个数量级，碰撞后载荷模块可再次恢复到超静超稳工作状态，恢复时间超过1400 s。本文建立的碰撞模型对研究分离式卫星碰撞规避和碰撞控制具有重要意义。     

A multi-aircraft conflict detection and resolution method for 4-dimensional trajectory-based operation

Conflict Detection and Resolution(CDR) is the key to ensure aviation safety based on Trajectory Prediction(TP). Uncertainties that affect aircraft motions cause difficulty in an accurate prediction of the trajectory, especially in the context of four-dimensional(4D) Trajectory-Based Operation(4DTBO), which brings the uncertainty of pilot intent. This study draws on the idea of time geography, and turns the research focus of CDR from TP to an analysis of the aircraft reachable space constrained by 4D waypoint constraints. The concepts of space–time reachability of aircraft and space–time potential conflict space are proposed. A novel pre-CDR scheme for multiple aircraft is established. A key advantage of the scheme is that the uncertainty of pilot intent is accounted for via a Space-Time Prism(STP) for aircraft. Conflict detection is performed by verifying whether the STPs of aircraft intersect or not, and conflict resolution is performed by planning a conflict-free space–time trajectory avoiding intersection. Numerical examples are presented to validate the efficiency of the proposed scheme.