Antiparticles

Nearly a half century after the discovery of the antiproton the study of cosmic-ray antimatter continues to be an exciting and fertile field. Sensitive searches for heavy cosmic-ray antimatter continue, although in recent years their value as a probe of universal baryon symmetry has all but evaporated. Antiprotons and positrons have opened new windows on the origin and history of cosmic rays. The rarity of antimatter as compared to ordinary cosmic-ray species has posed substantial experimental challenges. Early reports of significant enhancements of antiprotons and high-energy positrons fueled speculation that non-baryonic dark matter had been found. A new generation of balloon-borne magnetic spectrometers employing powerful particle identification techniques to eliminate background have finally managed to uncover the true antimatter signal. These new measurements support simple models of secondary production but also suggest the possibility of a small yet interesting primary component.     

Enhanced wave and finite element method for wave propagation and forced response prediction in periodic piezoelectric structures

As a promising numerical tool of structural dynamics in mid-and high frequencies, the wave and finite element method (WFEM) is receiving increasingly attention and applications. In this paper, an enhanced WFEM has been developed with a reduced model and a new eigenvalue scheme. The reduced model is applicable for structures with piezoelectric shunts or local dampers;the new eigenvalue scheme can mitigate the ill-conditioning when the wave basis is calculated. The enhanced WFEM is applied to a thin-wall structure with periodically distributed piezoelectric mate-rials (PZT). Both free wave characteristics and forced response are analyzed and the influences of the suggested enhancements are presented. It is shown that if the control factors are properly cho-sen, these enhancements can improve the accuracy while accelerating the calculation. Resulting from the complexity of the application, these enhancements are not optional but imperative.     

Efficient target tracking using dynamic programming

A dynamic programming (DP) algorithm has been developed for the detection and tracking of subpixel-sized, low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) targets observed by side-or forward-looking imaging sensors. A distinguishing feature of this approach is that target detection and tracking are combined into a single optimization procedure that takes into account statistical models of target motion, background noise, and clutter. Current work has led to a number of technical innovations that improve the performance and efficiency of the DP tracking algorithm, including the development of a new track scoring function, and an extension to the basic DP algorithm that reduces computation requirements by over an order of magnitude. A prototype infrared (IR) target tracking system incorporating these enhancements has been implemented for a step-starting IR camera application. Sensitivity improvements of several decibels over conventional sequential detection and tracking algorithms were realized     

AE9, AP9 and SPM: New Models for Specifying the Trapped Energetic Particle and Space Plasma Environment

The radiation belts and plasma in the Earth’s magnetosphere pose hazards to satellite systems which restrict design and orbit options with a resultant impact on mission performance and cost. For decades the standard space environment specification used for spacecraft design has been provided by the NASA AE8 and AP8 trapped radiation belt models. There are well-known limitations on their performance, however, and the need for a new trapped radiation and plasma model has been recognized by the engineering community for some time. To address this challenge a new set of models, denoted AE9/AP9/SPM, for energetic electrons, energetic protons and space plasma has been developed. The new models offer significant improvements including more detailed spatial resolution and the quantification of uncertainty due to both space weather and instrument errors. Fundamental to the model design, construction and operation are a number of new data sets and a novel statistical approach which captures first order temporal and spatial correlations allowing for the Monte-Carlo estimation of flux thresholds for user-specified percentile levels (e.g., 50th and 95th) over the course of the mission. An overview of the model architecture, data reduction methods, statistics algorithms, user application and initial validation is presented in this paper.     

100 mm一等量块自动测量仪测量不确定度评定

分析了100mm一等量块自动测量仪的误差来源，确定了测量量块的合成标准不确定度和扩展不确定度。     

Enhancements to a multiple model adaptive estimator/image-tracker

Three major enhancements to a previously devised multiple model adaptive estimator (MMAE) for target image tracking are developed and analyzed. These are: allowing some of the elemental filters to have rectangular fields of view and to be tuned for target dynamics that are harsher in one direction than others; considering both Gauss-Markov acceleration models and constant turn-rate models for target dynamics; and devising an initial target acquisition algorithm to remove important biases in the estimated target template to be used in a correlator within the tracker. Particularly good adaptation responsiveness is demonstrated in the multiple model algorithm's ability to handle harsh maneuver onset, yielding performance essentially equivalent to that of the best artificially informed tracking algorithm     

一种基于不确定性全寿命周期仿真的分离模块航天器评估方法(英文)

为了对新概念分离模块航天器进行全面评估,本文提出了一种基于不确定性全寿命周期仿真的评估方法。首先,对分离模块航天器术语和体系结构进行了阐述,对评价准则进行了定义,确定以风险调节全寿命周期成本和净收益现值的期望值和方差作为评价指标。其次,对分离模块航天器概念设计阶段学科模型进行了介绍,以此为基础对全寿命周期成本模型和净收益现值模型进行了详细讨论。再次,对全寿命周期不确定性因素进行了分析,并采用概率论进行了数学建模。然后,对全寿命周期仿真过程时序进行了分析,采用面向对象建模的方法对仿真模型进行了建模;仿真模型集成了仿真对象的不确定性模型,能够随着全寿命周期仿真演进对仿真对象的不确定性状态进行动态演化,以此为基础构建了基于不确定性全寿命周期仿真评估平台。最后,基于该评估方法对虚拟对地遥感分离模块航天器方案进行讨论,结果表明在考虑不确定性因素影响下,模块分离方案和分批发射方案对成本与收益有很大影响,且分离模块航天器比其对应传统单颗航天器更有优势。     

Nonlinear uncertainty quantification of the impact of geometric variability on compressor performance using an adjoint method

Manufactured blades are inevitably different from their design intent, which leads to a deviation of the performance from the intended value. To quantify the associated performance uncertainty, many approaches have been developed. The traditional Monte Carlo method based on a Computational Fluid Dynamics solver(MC-CFD) for a three-dimensional compressor is prohibitively expensive. Existing alternatives to the MC-CFD, such as surrogate models and secondorder derivatives based on the adjoint metho...     

Dynamic Cramer-Rao bound for target tracking in clutter

Recently, there have been several new results for an old topic, the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB). Specifically, it has been shown that for a wide class of parameter estimation problems (e.g. for objects with deterministic dynamics) the matrix CRLB, with both measurement origin uncertainty (i.e., in the presence of false alarms or random clutter) and measurement noise, is simply that without measurement origin uncertainty times a scalar information reduction factor (IRF). Conversely, there has arisen a neat expression for the CRLB for state estimation of a stochastic dynamic nonlinear system (i.e., objects with a stochastic motion); but this is only valid without measurement origin uncertainty. The present paper can be considered a marriage of the two topics: the clever Riccati-like form from the latter is preserved, but it includes the IRF from the former. The effects of plant and observation dynamics on the CRLB are explored. Further, the CRLB is compared via simulation to two common target tracking algorithms, the probabilistic data association filter (PDAF) and the multiframe (N-D) assignment algorithm.     

Relativistic solar proton events

Energetic solar flare particles contain rich information concerning mechanisms of particle acceleration on the Sun and subsequent transport through turbulent interplanetary space. Even the most energetic particles, in particular protons with kinetic energy above 500 MeV, may undergo coronal and interplanetary propagation effects, disturbing their accelerated injection spectrum after release from the solar flare. Relativistic solar proton events are recorded by neutron monitors at ground level. A detailed knowledge of the response of these ground-based detectors to the impact by a beam of protons on the top of the atmosphere is required to analyze these observations. The spectral index of arriving protons can be obtained from the response of the world-wide network of neutron monitors provided their directional anisotropy is known. The spectral index may also by determined from the relative enhancements in count rates of two similar detectors at different altitudes but similar asymptotic cones of acceptances, or from the relative enhancements of two detectors with different spectral sensitivities but at the same location of high latitude. Ground level enhancements from solar flare protons have been recorded at Sanae, Antarctica, since 1971 by two neutron monitors with different sensitivities to primary protons in the rigidity range from 1 GV to 5 GV. Spectral indexes of about 20 of these more energetic solar flare proton events have been determined from the two detector enhancements recorded at Sanae. These indexes do not show any increase (softening of the relativistic proton spectra) with increasing heliolongitude away from the preferred IMF connection region as was obtained for 20–80 MeV protons. Furthermore, most of the enhanced count rates show fluctuations larger than statistical, indicative of propagation in a mostly turbulent interplanetary magnetic field.     

湍流燃烧机理和调控的活性子空间分析方法

高效、低排放等需求促使发动机燃烧趋于近极限燃烧组织,亟需在稳定可控燃烧方面取得突破。湍流燃烧机理复杂,影响湍流燃烧数值模拟预测的物理化学和初始/边界条件参数众多。但是在该高维映射关系中,预测目标量往往仅在输入参数空间中的少数方向上梯度显著,称之为活跃方向。当活跃方向与空间基的方向不一致时,采用传统的全局敏感性方法难以高效地分析出主控参数以及后续的湍流燃烧机理。而活性子方法可以通过梯度的协方差矩阵特征分解得到上述活跃方向。本文综述了活性子空间方法理论及在湍流燃烧模拟中的应用：即探究海量输入参数空间中的活跃方向,构造低维活性子空间和低维响应面,从而高效地量化模拟不确定性、表征主控物理过程,从而揭示湍流燃烧机理。最后,进一步探讨了基于活性子空间分析方法的湍流燃烧调控。     

Improved CFAR performance in the littoral

Littoral operation of radars poses severe signal processing difficulties due to the highly stressing, inhomogeneous clutter. This report describes an initial investigation into the feasibility of utilising site-specific radar modelling to provide a localised estimate of the clutter statistics which can then be used to predict the required threshold to maintain a given false alarm rate. The technique has been applied to littoral clutter recordings obtained from the experimental S-band phased array radar, MESAR2. Results are presented for the technique in comparison with a conventional, non-adaptive, cell averaging CFAR. This paper concludes that significant performance enhancements are possible through the use of this new technique.     

Radar modelling to improve CFAR performance in the littoral

Littoral operation of radars poses severe signal processing difficulties due to the highly stressing, inhomogeneous clutter. This report describes an initial investigation into the feasibility of utilising site specific radar modelling to provide a localized estimate of the clutter statistics which can then be used to predict the required threshold to maintain a given false alarm rate. The technique has been applied to littoral clutter recordings obtained from the experimental S-band phase array radar, MESAR2. Results are presented for the technique in comparison with a conventional, non-adaptive, cell averaging CFAR. The paper concludes that significant performance enhancements are possible through the use of this new technique.     

考虑不确定性的飞机总体参数优化方法

由于在各种设计问题包括飞机概念设计中都存在一定的不确定性,因此在总体参数优化时有必要考虑这种不确定性。以大型客机总体参数优化设计为例,定义了考虑不确定性的飞机总体参数优化问题,该问题与传统飞机总体参数优化的区别是要进行不确定性分析。而不确定性分析的计算量过大,为此提出了一种渐进代理模型方法来解决这一难题。在建立代理模型时,通过连续成批地在设计空间的全局和局部均加入新样本点,不断提高代理模型的全局拟合精度,直至获得满意的代理模型为止。然后在优化过程中使用计算量小的代理模型。大型客机总体参数优化问题中含有5个设计变量,目标函数为起飞重量最轻,并需满足4个性能约束。考虑了不确定性后,不仅使目标值（起飞重量）对总体参数变化的敏感度有所减小,而且满足约束（设计要求）概率显著提高。     

Continual learning fault diagnosis:A dual-branch adaptive aggregation residual network for fault diagnosis with machine increments

As a data-driven approach, Deep Learning(DL)-based fault diagnosis methods need to collect the relatively comprehensive data on machine fault types to achieve satisfactory performance. A mechanical system may include multiple submachines in the real-world. During condition monitoring of a mechanical system, fault data are distributed in a continuous flow of constantly generated information and new faults will inevitably occur in unconsidered submachines, which are also called machine increments....     

Abundances,Ionization States,Temperatures, and FIP in Solar Energetic Particles

The relative abundances of chemical elements and isotopes have been our most effective tool in identifying and understanding the physical processes that control populations of energetic particles. The early surprise in solar energetic particles (SEPs) was 1000-fold enhancements in \({}^{3}\mbox{He}/{}^{4}\mbox{He}\) from resonant wave-particle interactions in the small “impulsive” SEP events that emit electron beams that produce type III radio bursts. Further studies found enhancements in Fe/O, then extreme enhancements in element abundances that increase with mass-to-charge ratio \(A/Q\), rising by a factor of 1000 from He to Au or Pb arising in magnetic reconnection regions on open field lines in solar jets. In contrast, in the largest SEP events, the “gradual” events, acceleration occurs at shock waves driven out from the Sun by fast, wide coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Averaging many events provides a measure of solar coronal abundances, but \(A/Q\)-dependent scattering during transport causes variations with time; thus if Fe scatters less than O, Fe/O is enhanced early and depleted later. To complicate matters, shock waves often reaccelerate impulsive suprathermal ions left over or trapped above active regions that have spawned many impulsive events. Direct measurements of ionization states \(Q\) show coronal temperatures of 1–2 MK for most gradual events, but impulsive events often show stripping by matter traversal after acceleration. Direct measurements of \(Q\) are difficult and often unavailable. Since both impulsive and gradual SEP events have abundance enhancements that vary as powers of \(A/Q\), we can use abundances to deduce the probable \(Q\)-values and the source plasma temperatures during acceleration, ≈3 MK for impulsive SEPs. This new technique also allows multiple spacecraft to measure temperature variations across the face of a shock wave, measurements otherwise unavailable and provides a new understanding of abundance variations in the element He. Comparing coronal abundances from SEPs and from the slow solar wind as a function of the first ionization potential (FIP) of the elements, remaining differences are for the elements C, P, and S. The theory of the fractionation of ions by Alfvén waves shows that C, P, and S are suppressed because of wave resonances during chromospheric transport on closed magnetic loops but not on open magnetic fields that supply the solar wind. Shock waves can accelerate ions from closed coronal loops that easily escape as SEPs, while the solar wind must emerge on open fields.     

装药几何参数不确定性优化设计

1引言固体火箭发动机装药设计,一般要求在满足发动机内弹道性能和相关约束条件下,选择药型并确定其几何参数,同时综合考虑燃烧室壳体内部绝热层、衬层和人工脱粘层的设计要求。装药设计作为发动机设计的核心,其设计质量很大程度决定了发动机性能优劣。航天飞机固体助推火箭发动     

非线性模型预测控制的研究进展

近年来,模型预测控制（Model predictive control,MPC）的理论和技术得到了长足发展,随着线性系统模型预测控制的大量成功应用,基于非线性模型的预测控制简称非线性预测控制（NMPC）引起了广泛关注,并取得了丰富的研究成果。文章基于非线性模型预测控制的基本原理,对目前该领域的热点问题和取得的成果进行了综述,指出了研究不确定系统和时滞系统的非线性模型预测控制对进一步发展预测控制理论和拓宽其应用范围的意义。     

假设检验与CFD不确定度量化分析

针对CFD验证与确认中不确定度量化研究,提出了假设检验量化技术,采用了Grubs数据处理技术并具有好的鲁棒性,应用了假设检验原理分析了计算结果,可对CFD计算具指导作用,数值例子也说明了这一点。