SDI the second time around

Current technologies could support the deployment of strategic defences that are effective, affordable and stabilizing. With recent developments in space-based interceptors, in particular, it no longer seems to be a question of whether the technologies could be deployed, but whether one wants to deploy them. Missile attacks could not yet be rendered ineffective, but this goal can be approached in stages. The author examines the range of limited applications and describes the financial and technological demands posed by each.     

SDI versus arms control

Dr Dahlitz examines three options for the strategic relationship between the superpowers and scrutinizes 12 major arguments that have been advanced in favour of the Strategic Defense Initiative. Arms control is offered as an available option and recommendation are given for methods of outer space arms control. These considerations are brought together in an illustrative draft Treaty on the Prohibition of the Use of Force Concerning Outer Space.     

Man and space – The Isle of Man, the IISC and the new space economy

With the arrival of private entrepreneurs and the appearance of such things as prizes to stimulate space initiatives, the space economy is changing rapidly from its initial government-driven character. A number of countries and territories, such as the Isle of Man, have understood the growing role of this new space economy and are preparing the appropriate boundary conditions to support its further development. This article shows why the Isle of Man may be uniquely placed to take advantage of recent developments in the space economy, thanks to its business-friendly tax and regulatory regime, and discusses the island’s strategy to attract space businesses. The establishment of the International Institute of Space Commerce, a recently formed think-tank, is an integral part of this strategy.     

Russian space programmes and industry: Defining the new institutions for new conditions

The aim of this article is to define the major elements of the institutional design process for the Russian rocket and space industry, a process which must take account of the changed economic conditions in the country and provide for the industry's integration into the wider national economy. The article does this by demonstrating the features that need to be understood, highlighting the problems that need to be resolved, and arguing that an institutional design process will have to be based on compromise and accommodation of all the different actors involved. The article deals with a number of particular problems challenging the managers and methodologists of the Russian national space programme of today.     

Economic rhythms,Maslow Windows and the new space frontier

This paper explores the possible relationship between space exploration and long swings in the economy and socio-technical systems. We posit that the early phases of long upswings are characterized by periods of optimism and the spirit of adventure that provided a motivation for large-scale explorations and other great infrastructure projects in the past. These Maslow Windows help us understand prior eras of exploration and cultural dynamism, and offer a hopeful scenario for space exploration in the next two decades. We offer some observations as to what the exploratory thrust might look like, including a return to the lunar surface combined with other activities. Of course, we also point out that the next great wave of space exploration will almost certainly have a much more international flavor than has heretofore been the case.     

Smaller states and the new balance of power in space

The number of states capable of building, launching and operating satellites has grown significantly over the years. This article discusses how going to space in an egalitarian fashion may influence the current state of affairs related to the militarization and weaponization of outer space, the security postures of the already established space powers, and the global balance of power in general. Potential changes in the relationship between old and new spacefarers may instigate an entire shift in the understanding of threats and opportunities for international cooperation in space.     

The tortoise and the tortoise : The new race for space

Until now space activity has been driven by international political competition. But recent events in Eastern Europe have undercut the political incentives for expanded space activity, and meanwhile fiscal constraints, arising for different reasons in the USA, Europe and the USSR, are putting unprecedented pressure on space budgets. In the long term, however, it is likely that a new kind of competition fuelled by economic motives will provide the basis for a more determined and perhaps more stable opening of the space frontier. Dropping out of the space race for short-term reasons could be a costly and irrevocable decision.     

A new cooperative strategy for space in the twenty-first century

The context within which the major government space programmes of the world are planned and obtain political approval has changed dramatically with the end of the Cold War. International economic competition has become a central issue in international affairs. Economic and political constraints require that space agencies adapt the ambitious plans they put forward in the 1980s to the realities of this decade and beyond. This paper argues that in this changed context, enhanced international space cooperation can make important contributions to advancing the core interests of nations and firms, and that in some situations, increased and more intimate cooperation may be the only way to achieve ambitious space goals. The paper contains a series of policy-oriented findings and recommendations that together comprise a ‘new cooperative strategy’ for space.     

A new era? Military space policy enters the mainstream

A military dimension to the use of space has existed since the earliest days of space activity. Historically, military space policy has been somewhat peripheral, but the ever increasing use of space in support of military objectives has now driven it into the mainstream of military planning. This has resulted in new consideration being given, particularly in the USA, to the organisation of space for national security and also raised the question as to whether national security interests demand space superiority and dominance.     

The new international political and strategic context for space policies

For several years there has been substantial growth in the ‘nationalist’ nature of space programmes around the world, traditionally focused on unaligned useful space applications. It seems that China, India, in the future South Korea, Malaysia and others will set themselves objectives of a more political colouring symbolising national pride in their programmes. At the same time, some countries, like Iran, make no attempt to hide their plans to have their own space defence capabilities. The absolute pre-eminence of the USA, Russia and Europe is starting to fade. For emerging countries space resources are becoming an integral component of their strategic position or an asymmetrical capability aimed at weakening the credibility of advantages held by potential rivals. This article examines the new context and the role that various countries are playing in it. It is how space policies should be determined in order to understand their politico-strategic determinants and to highlight their characteristics. Nevertheless, the competitive spirit is not the only possible way. Permanent space infrastructures could also be organised globally, as ‘global public goods’, to contribute to answering questions related to major issues facing humanity.     

A new setting for international space cooperation?

The year 2004 could be seen as the turning point for the realignment of international space cooperation for the 21st century. At the very core of this readjustment, the US space exploration initiative strives to define a new scheme for such a broad array of aspects as international scientific cooperation, the role of the space industry and the organizational framework for international space applications. This paper argues that the success of this new outline of international space cooperation depends on several conditions. First, the US initiative needs to demonstrate its long-term continuity and reliability for international partners, which will depend to no small degree on the future of the ISS and its utilization for international research. Second, international cooperation between industrial partners will continue to need political frameworks and depend on a balanced handling of know-how partnerships. Third, cooperation in space applications will need a truly international structure to further its global acceptance and outreach.     

Capacity building in space technology development: A new initiative within the United Nations programme on space applications

Since 1971 the UN Programme on Space Applications, implemented by the Office for Outer Space Affairs, has been organizing workshops, symposiums and expert meetings and providing training opportunities in the practical applications of space technology. In 2009 the Office launched the Basic Space Technology Initiative (BSTI). The BSTI encompasses a range of activities in support of capacity building in space technology development in response to the growing interest of academic and governmental organizations in many countries to establish basic, indigenous capabilities to develop nano- and small satellites. Considerations such as the education and training of experts, the creation of required testing and building infrastructure, opportunities for international cooperation and the applicable legal and regulatory frameworks are therefore of particular interest to these organizations. The BSTI aims to assist them with their efforts. This paper describes the origins of the initiative, the activities that have been conducted to date and the work planned for 2011 and beyond.     

Meeting the needs of the new millennium: passenger space travel and world economic growth

Without doubt, humans’ most urgent need at the start of the new millennium is the continuation of economic growth, which is the only means by which the great majority of the world population can lift themselves out of the poverty in which they live. A sine qua non for continuing economic growth is for the rich countries to continue to develop new industries—as they did throughout the 20th century, thereby creating high-productivity employment for hundreds of millions of people around the world. Arguably the most significant of these thus far is the development of passenger air travel from zero in 1900 to 1.5 billion passengers per year by 2000. It is becoming clear that passenger space travel could grow to reach a similar economic scale—and that no other space activity has comparable potential. The paper describes the potential contribution to world economic growth of passenger space travel; the failure of government space agencies either to aid its development or to make a contribution to economic growth commensurate to their cost; and the value for economic policy of prioritising the realisation of passenger space travel. The faster passenger space travel services grow, the more the space industry will contribute to “Meeting the Needs of the New Millennium”.     

A new paradigm for international cooperation in space exploration

In announcing a new Vision for the US space program, President George Bush committed the USA to “a long-term human and robotic program to explore the solar system”, via a return to the Moon, leading to exploration of Mars and other destinations. He also stated that other nations would be invited to join the vision. Many other nations have, or are developing, ‘exploration visions’ of their own. The potential for international cooperation therefore exists, both at the vision and program/project levels. This paper, based on Working Group discussions as part of an AIAA space cooperation workshop,¹ presents an approach for maximizing the return on all global investments in space exploration. It proposes an international coordination mechanism through which all these various national activities could be integrated into an inherently global enterprise for space exploration, a ‘virtual program of programs’. Within the context of the coordination, individual activities would utilize the full range of cooperative mechanisms for implementation. A significant benefit of this mode of conducting cooperation is that it would not require the negotiation of complex overarching international agreements as a precondition for initiating international activity.     

A new role for a new millennium? The changing nature of space activities

Space activity has lost the momentum it had in the past. During the Cold War the use of space was constrained by specific political and military conditions which gave it a strong but narrow identity. The aerospace industry, in particular, was in a position to develop protected and exclusive ties with the public sector. These times have passed and diminishing competition between the two main space powers has had consequences for the planning of major space undertakings. Space activity is in the process of being thoroughly transformed as it is forced to become more connected to general economic and industrial activity, especially in the field of information. An opportunity for a sector that has been struggling could also prove to be risky as space activity is losing some of its previously strong identity. Space currently seems to lack the high level of public support from governments it once enjoyed, while not finding an alternative in the industry itself to this declining investment. This situation should lead both the space community and the political authorities to consider new general space applications that will be more in line with the preoccupations of our modern societies and thus contribute to solving the principal global issues of tomorrow.