Quasi-periodicities in cosmic rays recorded by the KACST muon detector during 2002–2012

In this study, daily cosmic ray data obtained with the KACST muon detector for the period 2002–2012 were analyzed for quasi-periodicities. Power-spectrum analysis was carried out and several periodicities were identified. The results reveal several periodicities at different frequency scales: 817 days (~2.19 years), 617 days (~1.7 years), 475 days (~1.3 years), 421 days (1.15 years), 290 days (~0.8 years), 227 days (~0.62 years), 185 days (~0.52 years), 153 days, 135 days, 120 days, 93 days, 84 days, 73 days, 65 days, 53–45 days, 38 days, 31 days, 25–27 days, 21 days and 13 days. The obtained periodicities are in an agreement with those previously reported by several investigators.The identified periodicities have strong relevance to solar activity parameters such as variations in the interplanetary magnetic field.In comparison, the data from two neutron monitors (NMs), Lomnický ?tít and Oulu NMs, for the same period were used and their power spectra were correspondingly obtained. Similarities and differences in the position of the cosmic-ray peaks measured by the KACST muon detector and by the two NMs have been presented and discussed. While most of the periodicities reported by the muon detector are also found in the NM data, the ~1.7-yr variation is not found. Instead, a shift of 1.6–1.8 years in the NM data is observed which may be due to the limited epoch considered in this study.     

Variations of mid-term periodicities in solar activity physical phenomena

In this work we make an analysis of significant periodicities shown by phenomena linked to solar activity such as coronal hole area, radio emission in the 10.7 cm band and sunspots. We use the wavelet method that gives information in the frequency and time domains. Of particular interest are the mid-term periodicities (1–2 yrs). Over the whole period, coronal holes and radio variations show an important annual variation and a quasi-biannual periodicity. The increase in these variations is most important around the years of maximum solar activity. When the time series are separated in low and high frequencies, the latter are modulated by the general solar cycle. Although somewhat shifted in frequency, these periodicities might well correspond with those found in cosmic ray intensity, solar magnetic flux and other terrestrial and interplanetary phenomena as a wavelet coherence analysis of these series with the solar magnetic flux reveals.     

基于小波与交叉小波分析的太阳黑子与宇宙线相关性研究

利用小波分析和交叉小波分析方法, 根据太阳黑子数以及Huancayo和Climax两个测站的月均宇宙线数据, 分析了两个测站的月均宇宙线周期变化, 同时利用太阳黑子数R₁₂对Climax站宇宙线流量进行预测研究. 小波分析结果表明, 太阳黑子与宇宙线除存在显著的11年周期外, 太阳活动高年期间还存在1～6个月尺度的周期特性, 在第22太阳周活动高年时还出现了6～8和1～22个月的变化周期; 交叉小波分析结果表明, 在130个月左右的周期上宇宙线与太阳黑子具有显著的负相关性, 并且宇宙线的变化滞后太阳黑子约8个月; 分别采用预测时刻和8个月前的太阳黑子数, 预测相对误差为3.8912%和3.2386%. 本文方法同样适用于估算其他空间天气参量之间的周期和相关性, 提高各种空间天气参量的预测或预报精度.      

The role of drift and convection–diffusion mechanisms in small energy global cosmic ray modulation: Application to the hysteresis phenomenon of proton and alpha particle satellite data

The hysteresis effect for small energies of galactic cosmic rays is due to two effects. The first is the same as for neutron monitor energies – the delay of the interplanetary processes responsible for cosmic ray modulation with respect to the initiating solar processes, according to the effective velocity of solar wind and shock waves propagation. Then, the observed cosmic ray intensity is connected to the solar activity variations during many months before the time of cosmic ray measurement. The second is caused by the time delay of small energy cosmic ray diffusion from the boundary of modulation region to the Earth’s orbit. The model describing the connection between solar activity variation and cosmic ray convection–diffusion global modulation for neutron monitor energies is here developed by taking into account also the time-lag of the small energy particle diffusion in the Heliosphere. We use theoretical results on drifts and analytically approximate the dependences of drifts from tilt angle, and take into account the dependence from the sign of primary particles, and from the sign of polar magnetic field (A > 0 or A < 0). The obtained results are applied on proton and alpha-particle satellite data. We analyze satellite 5-min data of proton fluxes with energies >1 MeV, >2 MeV, >5 MeV, >10 MeV, >30 MeV, >50 MeV, >60 MeV, >100 MeV, and in intervals 10–30 MeV, 30–60 MeV, and 60–100 MeV during January 1986–December 1999. We exclude periods with great cosmic ray increases caused by particle acceleration in solar flare events. Then, we determine monthly averaged fluxes, as well as 5-month and 11-month smoothed data. We analyze also satellite 5-min data on alpha-particle fluxes in the energy intervals 60-160 MeV, 160–260 MeV and 330–500 MeV during January 1986–May 2000. We correct observation data for drifts and then compare with what is expected according to the convection–diffusion mechanism. We assume different dimensions of the modulation region (by the time propagation X₀ of solar wind from the Sun to the boundary of modulation region), for X₀ values from 1 to 60 average months, by one-month steps. For each value of X₀ we determine the correlation coefficient between variations of expected and observed cosmic ray intensities (the estimation of cosmic ray intensities values is given in Section 3 by Eq. (9), and the determination of correlation and regression coefficients in Section 3 by Eq. (8)). The dimension of modulation region is determined by the value of X_0 max, for which the correlation coefficient reaches the maximum value. Then the effective radial diffusion coefficient and residual modulation in small energy region can be estimated.     

Solar rhythms in the characteristics of the Arctic frontal zone in the North Atlantic

Long-term changes of the Arctic frontal zone characteristics near the south-eastern coasts of Greenland were considered, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data being used. It was found that in the cold half of the year the temperature gradients in the layer 1000–500 hPa in the region under study reveal strong ∼10-yr and ∼22-yr periodicities that seem to be related to solar activity cycles. The results obtained suggest the influence of solar activity and cosmic ray variations on the structure of the temperature field of the troposphere resulting in the changes of the temperature contrasts in the Arctic frontal zone that, in turn, may affect the intensity of cyclogenesis at middle latitudes. The detected effects seem to indicate an important part of frontal zones in the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray variation influence on the development of extratropical baric systems. It is suggested that the variations of the temperature gradients revealed in the Arctic frontal zone are due to the radiative forcing of cloudiness changes which may be associated with geomagnetic activity and cosmic ray variations.     

Perspective on space radiation for space flights in 2020–2040

The Sun undergoes several well known periodicities in activity, such as the Schwabe 11 year cycle, the Gleissberg 80–90 year cycle, the Suess 200–210 year cycle and the Halstatt 2200–2300 year cycle. In addition, there is evidence that the 20th century levels of solar activity are unusually high. The years 2020–2040 are expected to coincide with increased activity in human space flight beyond low Earth orbit. The solar cycles and the present level of solar activity are reviewed and their activities during the years 2020–2040 are discussed with a perspective on space radiation and the future program of space flight. It is prudent to prepare for continuing levels of high solar activity as well as for the low levels of the current deep minimum, which has corresponded to high galactic cosmic ray flux.     

On statistical relationship of solar, geomagnetic and human activities.

Data of galactic cosmic rays, solar and geomagnetic activities and solar wind parameters on the one side and car accident events (CAE) in Poland on the other have been analyzed in order to reveal the statistical relationships among them for the period of 1990-2001. Cross correlation and cross spectrum of the galactic cosmic ray intensity, the solar wind (SW) velocity, Kp index of geomagnetic activity and CAE in Poland have been carried out. It is shown that in some epochs of the above-mentioned period there is found a reliable relationship between CAE and solar and geomagnetic activities parameters in the range of the different periodicities, especially, 7 days. The periodicity of 7 days revealed in the data of the CAE has the maximum on Friday without any exception for the minimum and maximum epochs of solar activity. However, the periodicity of 7 days is reliably revealed in other parameters characterizing galactic cosmic rays, SW, solar and geomagnetic activities, especially for the minimum epoch of solar activity. The periodicity of 3.5 days found in the series of CAE data more or less can be completely ascribed to the social effects, while the periodicity of 7 days can be ascribed to the social effect or/to the processes on the Sun, in the interplanetary space and in the Earth's magnetosphere and atmosphere.     

Delineation of possible influence of solar variability and galactic cosmic rays on terrestrial climate parameters

The present paper has investigated the associations of solar activity (SA), represented by total solar irradiance (TSI), galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and terrestrial climate parameters in particular the global cloudiness and global surface temperature. To that end, we have analysed thirty five years (1983–2018) data of these parameters and have applied the Granger-causality test in order to assess whether there is any potential predictability power of one indicator to the other. The correlations among the involved parameters are tested using Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model and variance decomposition method. As a result of the above analysis, we have found that the TSI is an important factor and has contributed about 8.77 ± 0.42% in the cosmic ray intensity variations. In case of cloud cover variations, the other three parameters (TSI, cosmic ray and global surface temperature) have played a significant role. Further, the TSI changes have contributed 1.68 ± 0.03% fluctuations in the variance of the cloud cover while the cosmic ray intensity and global surface temperature have contributed about 4.89 ± 0.08% and 10.87 ± 1.41% respectively. In case of the global surface temperature anomaly both TSI and cloud covers have contributed about 5.07 ± 0.47% and 14.42 ± 2.13% fluctuations respectively. Additionally, we have also assessed the impact of internal climate oscillations like multivariate ENSO index (MEI), north Atlantic oscillations (NAO) and quasi biennial oscillations (QBO) on cloud cover variations. The contribution of these internal oscillations e.g. ENSO, NAO and QBO in cloud cover variation were reported as 7.48 ± 1.02%, 5.51 ± 0.16% and 1.36 ± 0.43% respectively.     

Prediction of expected global climate change by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar magnetic field data

A method of prediction of expected part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray (CR) by forecasting of galactic cosmic ray intensity time variation in near future based on solar activity data prediction and determined parameters of convection-diffusion and drift mechanisms is presented. This gave possibility to make prediction of expected part of global climate change, caused by long-term cosmic ray intensity variation. In this paper, we use the model of cosmic ray modulation in the Heliosphere, which considers a relation between long-term cosmic ray variations with parameters of the solar magnetic field. The later now can be predicted with good accuracy. By using this prediction, the expected cosmic ray variations in the near Earth space also can be estimated with a good accuracy. It is shown that there are two possibilities: (1) to predict cosmic ray intensity for 1–6 months by using a delay of long-term cosmic ray variations relatively to effects of the solar activity and (2) to predict cosmic ray intensity for the next solar cycle. For the second case, the prediction of the global solar magnetic field characteristics is crucial. For both cases, reliable long-term cosmic ray and solar activity data as well as solar magnetic field are necessary. For solar magnetic field, we used results of two magnetographs (from Stanford and Kitt Peak Observatories). The obtained forecasting of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation we use for estimation of the part of global climate change caused by cosmic ray intensity changing (influenced on global cloudiness covering).     

First measurements of periodicities and anisotropies of cosmic ray flux observed with a water-Cherenkov detector at the Marambio Antarctic base

A new water-Cherenkov radiation detector, located at the Argentine Marambio Antarctic Base (64.24S-56.62 W), has been monitoring the variability of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux since 2019. One of the main aims is to provide experimental data necessary to study interplanetary transport of GCRs during transient events at different space/time scales. In this paper we present the detector and analyze observations made during one full year. After the analysis and correction of the GCR flux variability due to the atmospheric conditions (pressure and temperature), a study of the periodicities is performed in order to analyze modulations due to heliospheric phenomena. We can observe two periods: (a) 1 day, associated with the Earth’s rotation combined with the spatial anisotropy of the GCR flux; and (b) $～$ 30 days due to solar impact of stable solar structures combined with the rotation of the Sun. From a superposed epoch analysis, and considering the geomagnetic effects, the mean diurnal amplitude is $～$ 0.08% and the maximum flux is observed in $～$ 15 h local time (LT) direction in the interplanetary space. In such a way, we determine the capability of Neurus to observe anisotropies and other interplanetary modulations on the GCR flux arriving at the Earth.     

Galactic cosmic ray composition and energy spectra.

Galactic cosmic ray nuclei represent a significant risk to long-duration spaceflight outside the magnetosphere. We review briefly existing measurements of the composition and energy spectra of heavy cosmic ray nuclei, pointing out which species and energy ranges are most critical to assessing cosmic ray risks for spaceflight. Key data sets are identified and a table of cosmic ray abundances is presented for elements from H to Ni (Z = 1 to 28). Because of the 22-year nature of the solar modulation cycle, data from the approaching 1998 solar minimum is especially important to reducing uncertainties in the cosmic ray radiation hazard. It is recommended that efforts to model this hazard take advantage of approaches that have been developed to model the astrophysical aspects of cosmic rays.     

Mid 19th century minimum of galactic cosmic ray flux inferred from Ti in Allegan meteorite

Measurements of ⁴⁴Ti activity in meteorites show that the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity has been declining in the interplanetary space during the past three centuries and has a component of cyclic variation, with periodicity of about 87 years [Taricco, C., Bhandari, N., Cane, D., et al. Galactic cosmic ray flux decline and periodicities in the interplanetary space during the last 3 centuries revealed by ⁴⁴Ti in meteorites. J. Geophys. Res. 111, A08102, 2006.]. In order to verify these results, we have measured ⁴⁴Ti activity in Allegan meteorite which fell in 1899 and in some other meteorites with better precision. The measurements confirm low cosmic ray flux and consequently high solar activity near the middle of 19th century.     

On the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy and intensity for different periods of solar magnetic cycle

The average amplitude of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy calculated based on the neutron monitors experimental data is larger in the qA > 0 period than in the qA < 0 period of solar magnetic cycle. The amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic rays anisotropy do not depend on the tilt angles of the heliospheric neutral sheet for different the qA > 0 and the qA < 0 periods of solar magnetic cycle. A good correlation has been revealed between the changes of the amplitudes of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy and intensity versus the qA > 0 and the qA < 0 periods of solar magnetic cycle.     

The local time dependence of the anisotropic solar cosmic ray flux.

The distribution of the solar cosmic radiation flux over the earth is not uniform, but the result of complex phenomena involving the interplanetary magnetic field, the geomagnetic field and latitude and longitude of locations on the earth. The latitude effect relates to the geomagnetic shield; the longitude effect relates to local time. For anisotropic solar cosmic ray events the maximum particle flux is always along the interplanetary magnetic field direction, sometimes called the Archimedean spiral path from the sun to the earth. During anisotropic solar cosmic ray event, the locations on the earth viewing "sunward" into the interplanetary magnetic field direction will observe the largest flux (when adjustments are made for the magnetic latitude effect). To relate this phenomena to aircraft routes, for anisotropic solar cosmic ray events that occur during "normal quiescent" conditions, the maximum solar cosmic ray flux (and corresponding solar particle radiation dose) will be observed in the dawn quadrant, ideally at about 06 hours local time.     

Observed solar cycle modulation of galactic cosmic rays over a range of rigidities

We have studied the long-term, steady-state, solar cycle modulation of galactic cosmic ray intensity for seven cycles (17–23). Our analysis is based on the data obtained with a variety of detectors on earth (neutron monitors of the global network and muon detectors) as well as telescopes flown on high altitude balloons and on-board near-earth satellites. The median rigidity of response for these detectors to galactic cosmic ray spectrum lies in the range 1–70 GV. We correlate cosmic ray data to sunspot numbers, Ap, solar wind bulk speed (V), magnetic field (B), as well as to the cycle maximum (M), minimum (m), and the epochs of the solar polar field reversals. This enables us to derive the rigidity dependence of observations, and helps us to define the characteristics of the modulation function in the heliosphere.     

Fluctuations of cosmic rays and IMF in the vicinity of interplanetary shocks

Fluctuations of cosmic rays and interplanetary magnetic field upstream of interplanetary shocks are studied using data of ground-based polar neutron monitors as well as measurements of energetic particles and solar wind plasma parameters aboard the ACE spacecraft. It is shown that coherent cosmic ray fluctuations in the energy range from 10 keV to 1 GeV are often observed at the Earth’s orbit before the arrival of interplanetary shocks. This corresponds to an increase of solar wind turbulence level by more than the order of magnitude upstream of the shock. We suggest a scenario where the cosmic ray fluctuation spectrum is modulated by fast magnetosonic waves generated by flux of low-energy cosmic rays which are reflected and/or accelerated by an interplanetary shock.     

Evolution of Dst index,cosmic rays and global temperature during solar cycles 20–23

We have studied conditions in interplanetary space, which can have an influence on galactic cosmic ray (CR) and climate change. In this connection the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters and cosmic ray variations have been compared with geomagnetic activity represented by the equatorial Dst index from the beginning 1965 to the end of 2012. Dst index is commonly used as the solar wind–magnetosphere–ionosphere interaction characteristic. The important drivers in interplanetary medium which have effect on cosmic rays as CMEs (coronal mass ejections) and CIRs (corotating interaction regions) undergo very strong changes during their propagation to the Earth. Because of this CMEs, coronal holes and the solar spot numbers (SSN) do not adequately reflect peculiarities concerned with the solar wind arrival to 1 AU. Therefore, the geomagnetic indices have some inestimable advantage as continuous series other the irregular solar wind measurements. We have compared the yearly average variations of Dst index and the solar wind parameters with cosmic ray data from Moscow, Climax, and Haleakala neutron monitors during the solar cycles 20–23. The descending phases of these solar cycles (CSs) had the long-lasting solar wind high speed streams occurred frequently and were the primary contributors to the recurrent Dst variations. They also had effects on cosmic rays variations. We show that long-term Dst variations in these solar cycles were correlated with the cosmic ray count rate and can be used for study of CR variations. Global temperature variations in connection with evolution of Dst index and CR variations is discussed.     

Applications and usage of the real-time Neutron Monitor Database

A high-time resolution Neutron Monitor Database (NMDB) has started to be realized in the frame of the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Commission. This database will include cosmic ray data from at least 18 neutron monitors distributed around the world and operated in real-time. The implementation of the NMDB will provide the opportunity for several research applications most of which will be realized in real-time mode. An important one will be the establishment of an Alert signal when dangerous solar cosmic ray particles are heading to the Earth, resulting into ground level enhancements effects registered by neutron monitors. Furthermore, on the basis of these events analysis, the mapping of all ground level enhancement features in near real-time mode will provide an overall picture of these phenomena and will be used as an input for the calculation of the ionization of the atmosphere. The latter will be useful together with other contributions to radiation dose calculations within the atmosphere at several altitudes and will reveal the absorbed doses during flights. Moreover, special algorithms for anisotropy and pitch angle distribution of solar cosmic rays, which have been developed over the years, will also be set online offering the advantage to give information about the conditions of the interplanetary space. All of the applications will serve the needs of the modern world which relies at space environment and will use the extensive network of neutron monitors as a multi-directional spectrographic detector. On top of which, the decreases of the cosmic ray intensity – known as Forbush decreases – will also be analyzed and a number of important parameters such as galactic cosmic ray anisotropy will be made available to the users of NMDB. A part of the NMDB project is also dedicated to the creation of a public outreach website with the scope to inform about cosmic rays and their possible effects on humans, technological systems and space-terrestrial environment. Therefore, NMDB will also stand as an informative gate on space research through neutron monitor’s data usage.     

太阳宇宙线在电离层D层中的电离

本文根据带电粒子对D层大气电离的理论,导出了太阳宇宙线在D层的电子产生率Q(h)的表达式,并计算了不同级别的太阳宇宙线事件、不同能谱参数下,Q(h)在极区随高度的分布。结果表明,不同级别、不同能谱的太阳宇宙线事件在极区产生的电离有显著的差别。同一级别,能谱指数γ越大,在较高的高度上电子产生率越大;能谱指数越小,在较低的高度上电子产生率越大。电子产生率的分布曲线出现明显的双峰,一个峰位于60公里左右,另一个峰位于85公里左右。前一个峰主要由太阳宇宙线中质子产生的,后一个峰主要是z≥2的重粒子成分产生的。本文所得结果明显好于Velinov等人的结果。      

Estimation of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation in near future and prediction of their contribution in expected global climate change

On the basis of results obtained in our paper [Dorman, L.I. Long-term cosmic ray intensity variation and part of global climate change, controlled by solar activity through cosmic rays, Paper D2.1/C2.2/E3.1-0097-04. Adv. Space Res., 2004 (accepted)], we determine: the dimension of the Heliosphere (modulation region), radial diffusion coefficient and other parameters of convection–diffusion; drift mechanisms of long-term variations of cosmic ray (CR) dependence on particle energy; level of solar activity (SA); and generally, the solar magnetic field. We obtain this important information on the basis of CR and SA data in the past, taking into account the theory of convection–diffusion and global drift modulation of galactic CR in the Heliosphere. By using these results and other regularly published predictions of expected SA variation in the near future, as well as predictions of the next SA cycle, we may make predictions of long-term cosmic ray intensity variation expected in the near future (up to 10–12 years). In [Dorman, L.I. Long-term cosmic ray intensity variation and part of global climate change, controlled by solar activity through cosmic rays, Paper D2.1/C2.2/E3.1-0097-04. Adv. Space Res., 2004 (accepted)], properties of connections between long-term variation in CR intensity and some part of a global climate change were estimated, controlled by solar activity through CR. We show that in this way we may make predictions of some part of a global climate change expected in the near future (up to 10–12 years and maybe more, depending upon the period during which definite predictions of SA can be made), controlled by solar activity through CR. In this case, estimations of expected long-term changes in the planetary distribution of cutoff rigidities, which also influence CR intensity, as well as CR-influenced effects on global climate variation, become important.