Response of the ionosphere to super geomagnetic storms: Observations and modeling

The relative importance of the main drivers of positive ionospheric storms at low-mid latitudes is studied using observations and modeling for the first time. In response to a rare super double geomagnetic storm during 07–11 November 2004, the low-mid latitude (17°–48°N geomag. lat.) ionosphere produced positive ionospheric storms in peak electron density (NmF2) in Japan longitudes (≈125°–145°E) on the day of main phase (MP1) onset (06:30 LT) and negative ionospheric storms in American longitudes (≈65°–120°W) on the following day of MP1 onset (13:00–16:00 LT). The relative effects of the main drivers of the positive ionospheric storms (penetrating daytime eastward electric field, and direct and indirect effects of equatorward neutral wind) are studied using the Sheffield University Plasmasphere Ionosphere Model (SUPIM). The model results show that the penetrating daytime (morning–noon) eastward electric field shifts the equatorial ionisation anomaly crests in NmF2 and TEC (total electron content) to higher than normal latitudes and reduces their values at latitudes at and within the anomaly crests while the direct effects of the equatorward wind (that reduce poleward plasma flow and raise the ionosphere to high altitudes of reduced chemical loss) combined with daytime production of ionisation increase NmF2 and TEC at latitudes poleward of the equatorial region; the later effects can be major causes of positive ionospheric storms at mid latitudes. The downwelling (indirect) effect of the wind increases NmF2 and TEC at low latitudes while its upwelling (indirect) effect reduces NmF2 and TEC at mid latitudes. The net effect of all main drivers is positive ionospheric storms at low-mid latitudes in Japan longitude, which qualitatively agrees with the observations.     

Ionospheric F-region response to geomagnetic disturbances

The F2-region reaction to geomagnetic storms usually called as an ionospheric storm is a rather complicated event. It consists of so called positive and negative phases, which have very complicated spatial and temporal behavior. The main morphological features of ionospheric storms and the main processes governing their behavior were understood at the end of the 1900s and described in a series of review papers. During the recent decade there were many publications dedicated to the problem of ionospheric storms. In this paper a concept of ionospheric storm morphology and physics formulated at the end of the 1990s is briefly summarized and the most interesting results obtained in the 2000s are described. It is shown that the main features of the studies of the previous decade were: the use of GPS TEC data for analyzing the ionospheric storm morphology, attraction of sophisticated theoretical models for studying the processes governing ionospheric behavior in disturbed conditions, and accent to analysis of ionospheric behavior during prominent events (very strong and great geomagnetic storms). Also a special attention was paid to the pre-storm enhancements in foF2 and TEC.     

Some effects in the upper atmosphere during geomagnetic storms

This paper examines the response of the high latitude ionosphere–thermosphere system during two intense geomagnetic storms. For that, data taken by instruments on board Dynamic Explorer 2 taken at heights of the F2-layer are used. These results represent a comparison of simultaneous measurements of storm disturbances in gas composition, electron density and temperature in common local time sectors. Documented are an increase in electron temperature and a decrease in electron density; increases both in electron temperature and electron density; and the correlation between electron density decreases and increases in the ratio N₂/O. It is noticed that the decrease in electron density is sometimes due to an increase in the molecular nitrogen density N₂ and not always is attributed both to the increase in N₂ density and the simultaneous decrease in the atomic oxygen density.     

Longitudinal variations of geomagnetic and ionospheric parameters in the Northern Hemisphere during magnetic storms according to multi-instrument observations

We present a joint analysis of longitude-temporal variations of ionospheric and geomagnetic parameters at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere during the two severe magnetic storms in March and June 2015 by using data from the chains of magnetometers, ionosondes and GPS/GLONASS receivers. We identify the fixed longitudinal zones where the variability of the magnetic field is consistently high or low under quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. The revealed longitudinal structure of the geomagnetic field variability in quiet geomagnetic conditions is caused by the discrepancy of the geographic and magnetic poles and by the spatial anomalies of different scales in the main magnetic field of the Earth. Variations of ionospheric parameters are shown to exhibit a pronounced longitudinal inhomogeneity with changing geomagnetic conditions. This inhomogeneity is associated with the longitudinal features of background and disturbed structure of the geomagnetic field. During the recovery phase of a storm, important role in dynamics of the mid-latitude ionosphere may belong to wave-like thermospheric disturbances of molecular gas, propagating westward for several days. Therefore, it is necessary to extend the time interval for studying the ionospheric effects of strong magnetic storms by a few days after the end of the magnetospheric source influence, while the disturbed regions in the thermosphere continues moving westward and causes the electron density decrease along the trajectories of propagation.     

Effects of CME and CIR induced geomagnetic storms on low-latitude ionization over Indian longitudes in terms of neutral dynamics

This paper presents the response of the ionosphere during the intense geomagnetic storms of October 12–20, 2016 and May 26–31, 2017 which occurred during the declining phase of the solar cycle 24. Total Electron Content (TEC) from GPS measured at Indore, Calcutta and Siliguri having geomagnetic dips varying from 32.23°N, 32°N and 39.49°N respectively and at the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations at Lucknow (beyond anomaly crest), Hyderabad (between geomagnetic equator and northern crest of EIA) and Bangalore (near magnetic equator) in the Indian longitude zone have been used for the storms. Prominent peaks in diurnal maximum in excess of 20–45 TECU over the quiet time values were observed during the October 2016 storm at Lucknow, Indore, Hyderabad, Bangalore and 10–20 TECU for the May 2017 storm at Siliguri, Indore, Calcutta and Hyderabad. The GUVI images onboard TIMED spacecraft that measures the thermospheric O/N₂ ratio, showed high values (O/N₂ ratio of about 0.7) on October 16 when positive storm effects were observed compared to the other days during the storm period. The observed features have been explained in terms of the O/N₂ ratio increase in the equatorial thermosphere, CIR-induced High Speed Solar Wind (HSSW) event for the October 2016 storm. The TEC enhancement has also been explained in terms of the Auroral Electrojet (AE), neutral wind values obtained from the Horizontal Wind Model (HWM14) and equatorial electrojet strength from magnetometer data for both October 2016 and May 2017 storms. These results are one of the first to be reported from the Indian longitude sector on influence of CME- and CIR-driven geomagnetic storms on TEC during the declining phase of solar cycle 24.     

Geomagnetic pulsation over conjugate locations during geomagnetic storms and substorm

Geomagnetic data collected during magnetic storm over magnetically conjugate pair (according to IGRF 2000) of high latitude stations viz., Maitri (70° 45′ S, 11° 42′ E) and Tromso (69° 40′ N, 18° 56′ E) reveal that amplitudes of Pc6 pulsation characteristically differ. The amplitude obtained from horizontal magnetic field for the Pc6 pulsation frequency range between 0.6 and 1.6 mHz significantly differs in time corresponding to peak amplitude. The relative differences in its time of occurrence found to gradually increase around initial phase of storm and remain exactly out of phase at peak amplitude of storm. Thence, it is found to be in agreement in phase gradually until storm unwinds. This indicates that simultaneous amplitude of Pc6 pulsation at conjugate pair of stations and its time of occurrence could be a key factor to infer storm arrivals somewhat prior to its peak effects. The emphasize remains on prediction of storm arrivals only by utilizing ground based magnetometer observations. However, it is necessary to understand differences on the basis of weak, moderate, strong, and super strong cases and more exactly how they behave along the line of magnetic Meridian. Nevertheless, the analysis implies that geo-effective magnetic ejecta/clouds/CIRs/sheaths/CMEs/ICMEs giving rise to geomagnetic storm can be predicted ahead of its peak effects by having magnetometer data over conjugate locations.     

Time delay of ionospheric TEC storms to geomagnetic storms and pre-storm disturbance events in East Asia

Using the TEC data at Beijing (39.61°N, 115.89°E)/Yakutsk (62.03°N, 129.68°E) stations of East Asia regions and relevant geomagnetic data from 2010 to 2017, we have studied the time delay of ionospheric storms to geomagnetic storms and compare it with our previous results of Taoyuan (25.02°N, 121.21°E) station (Zhang et al., 2020). The data shows a well-known local time dependence of the time delay, and seasonal dependences are different at these stations. In addition, there is no correlation between the time delay and the magnetic storm intensity /solar activity, except the time delay of negative storms has weakly negative dependence on the solar activity. Comparing with the results of Taoyuan station which is located at EIA region in East Asia, we find that the time delay increases nonlinearly as the latitude decreases due to different ionospheric backgrounds at these places. Moreover, the pre-storm disturbance events are found to have similar statistical characteristics as the pre-storm enhancement in Europe middle latitudes (Bure?ová and La?tovi?ka, 2007). By subtracting the common features of the pre-storm disturbance events, we preliminarily infer that auroral activity might be main driver of the pre-storm disturbance events.     

Local-time variations of geomagnetic disturbances during intense geomagnetic storms and possible association with their interplanetary causes

In the present paper the local-time variations in the disturbance of the geomagnetic-field horizontal component (H) for eight intense geomagnetic storms that occurred during the descending phase of solar cycle 23 have been analyzed. The study was based on the plot of contour lines of the H-depletion intensity in the plane local time versus universal time (LT–UT maps) with the objective of observing how the morphology and evolution of the ring current is mapped into the surface of the Earth in presence of intense geomagnetic storms.     

The response of African equatorial foF2 to geomagnetic storms: Comparison between observations and IRI-2007 predictions

This study examines the response of the African equatorial ionospheric foF2 to different levels of geomagnetic storms, using the foF2 hourly data for the year 1989 from Ouagadougou (12.4°N, 1.5°W, dip: 2.8°N). The study also compares the observed data for the selected storm periods with the latest IRI model (IRI-2007). The foF2 values (both observed and predicted) show typical features of daytime peak and post-midnight minimum peak. The response of the ionospheric foF2 over Ouagadougou to storms events, during the night-time and post-midnight hours indicates negative responses of the ionospheric foF2, while that of the daytime hours indicates positive responses. For the investigation on the variability of the observed foF2 with respect to IRI-2007 model, with the exception of the analysis of the 20–22, October, 1989 data, where a midday peak was also observed on the first day, this study reveals two characteristic daily foF2 variability peaks: post-midnight and evening peaks. In addition, for all the geomagnetic storms considered, the URSI and CCIR coefficients of the IRI-2007 model show reasonable correspondence with each other, except for some few discrepancies. For instance, the event of 28–30 August, 1989 shows comparatively higher variability for the URSI coefficient, and at the foF2 peak values, the event of 20–22 October, 1989 shows that the CCIR coefficient is more susceptible to foF2 variability than the URSI coefficient. This study is aimed at providing African inputs for the future improvement of the IRI model.     

Statistical study of the time delay of ionospheric TEC storms to geomagnetic storms in Taoyuan,Taiwan

We have studied the time delay of ionospheric storms to geomagnetic storms at a low latitude station Taoyuan (25.02°N, 121.21°E), Taiwan using the Dst and TEC data during 126 geomagnetic storms from the year 2002 to 2014. In addition to the known local time dependence of the time delay, the statistics show that the time delay has significant seasonal characteristics, which can be explained within the framework of the seasonal characteristics of the ionospheric TEC. The data also show that there is no correlation between the time delay and the intensity of magnetic storms. As for the solar activity dependence of the time delay, the results show that there is no relationship between the time delay of positive storms and the solar activity, whereas the time delay of negative storms has weakly negative dependence on the solar activity, with correlation coefficient −0.41. Especially, there are two kinds of extreme events: pre-storm response events and long-time delay events. All of the pre-storm response events occurred during 15–20 LT, manifesting the Equator Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) feature at Taoyuan. Moreover, the common features of the pre-storm response events suggest the storm sudden commencement (SSC) and weak geomagnetic disturbance before the main phase onset (MPO) of magnetic storms are two main possible causes of the pre-storm response events. By analyzing the geomagnetic indices during the events with long-time delay, we infer that this kind of events may not be caused by magnetic storms, and they might belong to ionospheric Q-disturbances.     

Solar wind low-energy energetic ion enhancements: A tool to forecast large geomagnetic storms

Predicting the occurrence of large geomagnetic storms more than an hour in advance is an important, yet difficult task. Energetic ion data show enhancements in flux that herald the approach of interplanetary shocks, usually for many hours before the shock arrival. We present a technique for predicting large geomagnetic storms (Kp  7) following the arrival of interplanetary shocks at 1 AU, using low-energy energetic ions (47–65 keV) and solar wind data measured at the L1 libration point. It is based on a study of the relationship between energetic ion enhancements (EIEs) and large geomagnetic storms by Smith et al. [Smith, Z., Murtagh, W., Smithtro, C. Relationship between solar wind low-energy energetic ion enhancements and large geomagnetic storms. J. Geophys. Res. 109, A01110, 2004. doi:10.1029/ 2003JA010044] using data in the rise and maximum of solar cycle 23 (February 1998–December 2000). An excellent correlation was found between storms with Kp  7 and the peak flux of large energetic ion enhancements that almost always (93% of time in our time period) accompany the arrival of interplanetary shocks at L1. However, as there are many more large EIEs than large geomagnetic storms, other characteristics were investigated to help determine which EIEs are likely to be followed by large storms. An additional parameter, the magnitude of the post-shock total magnetic field at the L1 Lagrangian point, is introduced here. This improves the identification of the EIEs that are likely to be followed by large storms. A forecasting technique is developed and tested on the time period of the original study (the training data set). The lead times, defined as the times from the arrival of the shock to the start of the 3-h interval of maximum Kp, are also presented. They range from minutes to more than a day; the average for large storms is 7 h. These times do not include the extra warning time given when the EI flux cross the high thresholds ahead of the shock. Because the data-stream used in the original study is no longer available, we extended the original study (1998–2000) to 2001, in order to: (a) investigate EIEs in 2001; (b) present a validation of the technique on an independent data set; (c) compare the results based on the original (P1) energy channel to those of the replacement (P1′) and (d), determine new EIE thresholds for forecasting geomagnetic storms using P1′ data. The verification of this P1′ training data set is also presented, together with lead times.     

Responses of ionospheric foF2 to geomagnetic activities in Hainan

Responses of low-latitude ionospheric critical frequency of F2 layer to geomagnetic activities in different seasons and under different levels of solar activity are investigated by analyzing the ionospheric foF2 data from DPS-4 Digisonde in Hainan Observatory during 2002–2005. The results are as follows: (1) the response of foF2 to geomagnetic activity in Hainan shows obvious diurnal variation except for the summer in low solar activity period. Generally, geomagnetic activity will cause foF2 to increase at daytime and decrease at nighttime. The intensity of response of foF2 is stronger at nighttime than that at daytime; (2) seasonal dependence of the response of foF2 to geomagnetic activity is very obvious. The negative ionospheric storm effect is the strongest in summer and the positive ionospheric storm effect is the strongest in winter; (3) the solar cycle has important effect on the response of foF2 to geomagnetic activity in Hainan. In high solar activity period, the diurnal variation of the response of foF2 is very pronounced in each season, and the strong ionospheric response can last several days. In low solar activity period, ionospheric response has very pronounced diurnal variation in winter only; (4) the local time of geomagnetic activities occurring also has important effect on the responses of foF2 in Hainan. Generally, geomagnetic activities occurred at nighttime can cause stronger and longer responses of foF2 in Hainan.     

Solar and interplanetary precursors of geomagnetic storms in solar cycle 23

Estimating the magnetic storm effectiveness of solar and associated interplanetary phenomena is of practical importance for space weather modelling and prediction. This article presents results of a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probable causes of geomagnetic storms during the 11-year period of solar cycle 23: 1996–2006. Potential solar causes of 229 magnetic storms (Dst ? −50 nT) were investigated with a particular focus on halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A 5-day time window prior to the storm onset was considered to track backward the Sun’s eruptions of halo CMEs using the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue list. Solar and interplanetary (IP) properties associated with halo CMEs were investigated and correlated to the resulting geomagnetic storms (GMS). In addition, a comparative analysis between full and partial halo CME-driven storms is established. The results obtained show that about 83% of intense storms (Dst ? −100 nT) were associated with halo CMEs. For moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), only 54% had halo CME background, while the remaining 46% were assumed to be associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or undetected frontside CMEs. It was observed in this study that intense storms were mostly associated with full halo CMEs, while partial halo CMEs were generally followed by moderate storms. This analysis indicates that up to 86% of intense storms were associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) at 1 AU, as compared to moderate storms with only 44% of ICME association. Many other quantitative results are presented in this paper, providing an estimate of solar and IP precursor properties of GMS within an average 11-year solar activity cycle. The results of this study constitute a key step towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.     

Spread-F occurrence during geomagnetic storms near the southern crest of the EIA in Argentina

This work presents, for the first time, the analysis of the occurrence of ionospheric irregularities during geomagnetic storms at Tucumán, Argentina, a low latitude station in the Southern American longitudinal sector (26.9°S, 294.6°E; magnetic latitude 15.5°S) near the southern crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). Three geomagnetic storms occurred on May 27, 2017 (a month of low occurrence rates of spread-F), October 12, 2016 (a month of transition from low to high occurrence rates of spread-F) and November 7, 2017 (a month of high occurrence rates of spread-F) are analyzed using Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers and ionosondes. The rate of change of total electron content (TEC) Index (ROTI), GPS Ionospheric L-band scintillation, the virtual height of the F-layer bottom side (h'F) and the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) are considered. Furthermore, each ionogram is manually examined for the presence of spread-F signatures.The results show that, for the three events studied, geomagnetic activity creates favorable conditions for the initiation of ionospheric irregularities, manifested by ionogram spread-F and TEC fluctuation. Post-midnight irregularities may have occurred due to the presence of eastward disturbance dynamo electric fields (DDEF). For the May storm, an eastward over-shielding prompt penetration electric field, (PPEF) is also acting. A possibility is that the PPEF is added to the DDEF and produces the uplifting of the F region that helps trigger the irregularities. Finally, during October and November, strong GPS L band scintillation is observed associated with strong range spread-F (SSF), that is, irregularities extending from the bottom-side to the topside of the F region.     

Classification and quantification of solar wind driver gases leading to intense geomagnetic storms

Classification and quantification of the interplanetary structures causing intense geomagnetic storms (Dst?≤??100?nT) that occurred during 1997–2016 are studied. The subject of this consists of solar wind parameters of seventy-three intense storms that are associated with the southward interplanetary magnetic field. About 30.14% of the storms were driven by a combination of the sheath and ejecta (S?+?E), magnetic clouds (MC) and sheath field (S) are 26% each, 10.96% by combined sheath and MCs (S?+?C), while 5.48% of the storms were driven by ejecta (E) alone. Therefore, we want to aver that for storms driven by: (1) S?+?E. The Bz is high (≥10?nT), high density (ρ) (>10?N/cm³), high plasma beta (β) (>0.8), and unspecified (i.e. high or low) structure of the plasma temperature (T) and the flow speed (V); (2) MC. The Bz is ≥10?nT, low temperature (T?≤?400,000?K), low ρ (≤10?N/cm³), high V (≥450?km), and low β (≤0.8); (3) The structures of S?+?C are similar to that of MC except that the V is low (V?≤?450?km); (4) S. The Bz is high, low T, high ρ, unspecified V, and low β; and (5) E. Is when the structures are directly opposite of the one driven by MCs except for high V. Although, westward ring current indicates intense storms, but the large intensity of geomagnetic storms is determined by the intense nature of the electric field strength and the Bz. Therefore, great storms (i.e. Dst?≤??200?nT) are manifestation of high electric field strength (≥13?mV/m).     

Latitudinal variation of F2-region response to geomagnetic disturbance

The effect of geomagnetic storms on the F2 region was studied by calculating the deviation, ΔfoF2, of foF2 during 40 magnetic storms, ranging from moderate (Dst < −50 nT) to very intense (Dst < −200 nT) of the 21st solar cycle. In order to study the variation of storm-time foF2 with latitude, season and storm strength, ionosonde data were obtained from eight stations spanning a latitudinal range of +60–−60°. The stations chosen lay in a narrow longitudinal range of 140–151°, so that local time difference between the stations is practically negligible. The features exhibited by positive and negative phases were essentially different. The storm time ΔfoF2 clearly exhibited a latitudinal variation and this variation were found to be coupled with the seasonal variation. As for the variation with storm intensity, though ΔfoF2 was found to vary even between two storms of almost equal intensity, the amplitude of a positive or negative phase, |ΔfoF2max| showed a distinct upper limit for each intensity category of storms.     

Validation of the STORM model in IRI-2001 at a high latitude station

The International Reference Ionosphere IRI-2001 model contains geomagnetic activity dependence based on an empirical storm time ionospheric correction (STORM model). An extensive validation of the STORM model for the middle latitude region has been performed. In this paper the ability of the STORM model to predict foF2 values at high latitudes is analyzed. For this, ionosonde data obtained at Base Gral. San Martin (68.1°S, 293°E) are compared with those obtained by the IRI-2001 model with or without storm correction during four geomagnetic storms that occurred in 2000 (Rz₁₂ = 117) and 2001 (Rz₁₂ = 111). The results show that predicted values with the STORM model follow the behaviour of foF2 experimental data better than without the STORM model. The relative deviation between measured and predicted foF2 reaches values of up to 24% and 43% with and without the STORM model in IRI-2001, during the main phase of the storms. In order to explain increases of electron density that occurred prior to the storm onset and also decreases of electron density observed during the first part of the recovery of the storm, possible physical mechanisms are discussed.     

On the mid-latitude ionospheric storm association with intense geomagnetic storms

The bulk association between ionospheric storms and geomagnetic storms has been studied. Hemispheric features of seasonal variation of ionospheric storms in the mid-latitude were also investigated. 188 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ 100 nT) that occurred during solar cycles 22 and 23 were considered, of which 143 were observed to be identified with an ionospheric storm. Individual ionospheric storms were identified as maximum deviations of the F2 layer peak electron density from quiet time values. Only ionospheric storms that could clearly be associated with the peak of a geomagnetic storm were considered. Data from two mid-latitude ionosonde stations; one in the northern hemisphere (i.e. Moscow) and the other in the southern hemisphere (Grahamstown) were used to study ionospheric conditions at the time of the individual geomagnetic storms. Results show hemispheric and latitudinal differences in the intensity and nature of ionospheric storms association with different types of geomagnetic storms. These results are significant for our present understanding of the mechanisms which drive the changes in electron density during different types of ionospheric storms.     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Response of the lower atmosphere to intense geomagnetic storms

In this short paper we examine the possible connection between atmospheric parameters measured at low and middle altitudes and geomagnetic storms occurred in 2000 and 2003. For that, from a chain of stations located near the meridian 60°W we compare the storm time values of temperature and wind speed with their standard deviation 2σ obtained from quiet time values. We observed statistically significant variations at several altitudes during the storm recovery phase and after it, both in neutral wind speed and temperature. The results obtained suggest that atmospheric parameters could be affected by geomagnetic storms.