太阳质子事件对太阳同步轨道空间辐射环境影响分析

介绍了南大西洋异常区的辐射环境及其特点，重点研究了发生于2000年7月14日的太阳质子事件对太阳同步轨道空间环境造成的影响，太阳质子事件期间，抵达近地空间的高能电子、质子及重离子对太阳同步轨道空间环境造成剧烈地扰动，并且不同种类不同能量的粒子扰动特征不尽相同。     

A comparison of two different types of geosynchronous satellite measurements during the 1989 solar proton events.

The proton telescope aboard the GOES-7 satellite continuously records the proton flux at geosynchronous orbit, and therefore provides a direct measurement of the energetic protons arriving during solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Microelectronic devices are susceptible to single event upset (SEU) caused by both energetic protons and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) ions. Some devices are so sensitive that their upsets can be used as a dosimetric indicator of a high fluence of particles. The 93L422 1K SRAM is one such device. Eight of them are on the TDRS-1 satellite in geosynchronous orbit, and collectively they had been experiencing 1-2 upset/day due to the GCR background. During the large SEP events of 1989 the upset rate increased dramatically, up to about 250 for the week of 19 Oct, due to the arrival of the SEP protons. Using the GOES proton spectra, the proton-induced SEU cross section curve for the 93L422 and the shielding distribution around the 93L422, the calculated upsets based on the GOES satellite data compared well against the log of measured upsets on TDRS-1.     

Real-time GLE alert in the ANMODAP Center for December 13, 2006

Within the last years, a real-time system to monitor high energy cosmic rays for space weather use has been operated at Athens cosmic ray station. Neutron monitors and satellite high resolution data in real time are used, making it possible to observe cosmic rays in dual energy range observations. In large solar energetic particle (SEP) events, ground level enhancement (GLE) can provide the earliest alert for the onset of the SEP event. This system watches for count rate increases recorded in real time by 23 neutron monitors, which triggers an alarm if a ground level enhancement (GLE) of cosmic ray intensity is detected.     

Space Weather Service for Chinese Space Science Satellites

Strategic Priority Research Program on Space Science has gained remarkable achievements. Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) affiliated with the National Space Science Center (NSSC) has been providing space weather services and helps secure space missions. Presently, SEPC is capable to offer a variety of space weather services covering many phases of space science missions including planning, design, launch, and orbital operation. The service packages consist of space weather forecasts, warnings, and effect analysis that can be utilized to avoid potential space weather hazard or reduce the damage caused by space storms, space radiation exposure for example. Extensive solar storms that occurred over Chinese Ghost Festival (CGF) in September 2017 led to a large enhancement of the solar energetic particle flux at 1 AU, which affected the near Earth radiation environment and brought great threat to orbiting satellites. Based on the space weather service by SEPC, satellite ground support groups collaborating with the space Tracking, Telemetering and Command system (TT&C) team were able to take immediate measures to react to the CGF solar storm event.      

数据同化在空间天气学中的应用

由太阳活动引起的耀斑和日冕物质抛射等短时间尺度变化的空间天气事件会影响并危害地球磁层、电离层、中高层大气、卫星运行安全以及人类健康,因此对这些空间天气事件的预测显得尤为重要。数据同化在稀疏观测和异步采集的情况下能够增加模型的预测能力,对模型变量进行自洽分析。在数值预报中引入数据同化方法,能够提高预测可信度。本文从数据同化方法的角度出发,主要分析了数据同化目前在大气、电离层、磁层、太阳及其他行星科学研究中的应用,并初步讨论了数据同化未来在空间天气方面的应用。      

Different space weather effects in anomalies of the high and low orbital satellites

Preliminary results of the EU INTAS Project 00810, which aims to improve the methods of safeguarding satellites in the Earth’s magnetosphere from the negative effects of the space environment, are presented. Anomaly data from the “Kosmos” series satellites in the period 1971–1999 are combined in one database, together with similar information on other spacecraft. This database contains, beyond the anomaly information, various characteristics of the space weather: geomagnetic activity indices (Ap, AE and Dst), fluxes and fluences of electrons and protons at different energies, high energy cosmic ray variations and other solar, interplanetary and solar wind data. A comparative analysis of the distribution of each of these parameters relative to satellite anomalies was carried out for the total number of anomalies (about 6000 events), and separately for high (5000 events) and low (about 800 events) altitude orbit satellites. No relation was found between low and high altitude satellite anomalies. Daily numbers of satellite anomalies, averaged by a superposed epoch method around sudden storm commencements and proton event onsets for high (>1500 km) and low (<1500 km) altitude orbits revealed a big difference in a behavior. Satellites were divided on several groups according to the orbital characteristics (altitude and inclination). The relation of satellite anomalies to the environmental parameters was found to be different for various orbits that should be taken into account under developing of the anomaly frequency models.     

1 AU轨道SEP粒子通量的计算及与多卫星观测结果的比较

1 AU轨道上太阳高能粒子(Solar Energetic Particles,SEP)通量是空间天气的重要指标.将SEP两步传播方程的格林函数解进行数值化,模拟了2012年9月28日的SEP事件,首次计算了同一事件中GOES卫星与STEREO双星观测到的SEP通量变化过程.对GOES和STEREO-B观测点,计算所得SEP峰值I_max和峰值到达时间t_max与观测值符合较好;对STEREO-A,由于观测点与太阳活动源区间隔较大及太阳背面未知事件的影响,计算结果与观测存在一定差异.      

太阳活动突发过程对临近空间大气影响的模拟

空间天气对地球及近地空间具有重要影响,大的空间天气事件对中上层大气动力学和成分具有不同的影响。利用全大气耦合模式WACCM,针对太阳耀斑、太阳质子、地磁暴三类事件,以太阳活动平静期2015年5月10-14日的GEOS-5数据为模式背景场,通过F_10.7、离子产生率、Kp及Ap指数设置,分别模拟三类事件对临近空间大气温度、密度和臭氧的影响。结果表明耀斑事件在三类事件中对临近空间大气温度和密度的影响最为显著。平流层大气温度增加是由耀斑辐射增强引起平流层臭氧吸收紫外辐射发生的光化学反应所致,耀斑事件引起平流层和低热层温度增加约为2～3 K,低热层大气相对密度增加在6%以内;太阳质子事件及磁暴事件主要影响低热层,但太阳质子事件和磁暴事件对低热层温度扰动不大于1 K。     

太阳质子事件预报和射电Ⅰ型噪暴

太阳是一个异常活跃的天体,其爆发过程会对地球周围空间环境产生重要影响. 通常,单个高能质子即足以引起飞行器中微电子器件出现异常,因此太阳质子事件预报是空间天气预报的重要内容. 关于预报模型的参数选择尚有值得改进之处. 研究认为,Ⅰ型噪暴与日冕加热磁重联具有密切关系,可以作为预报参数. 通过两个典型太阳爆发事件的详细资料分析,说明了Ⅰ型噪暴与质子事件及CME的相关性.      

The monitoring and prediction of solar particle events--an experience report.

The routine monitoring and prediction of solar proton events that may be a hazard to personnel and materials in space are a routine service of the Space Environment Services Center in Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. The services provided are made available to the space centers in the United States for use in their operations. The real time monitoring consists primarily of Space Environment Monitors on both geosynchronous and polar orbiting weather satellites. The monitoring emphasizes proton fluxes but alpha particles, electrons, and in one case, heavier particles, are included. The predictions are of two types; a general outlook made 1 to 3 days in advance, and specific prediction of event size and probability of occurrence made after a solar flare occurs. The accuracy of the prediction made for solar cycle 21 are assessed.     

Unexpected burst of solar activity recorded by neutron monitors during October–November 2003

During the extreme burst of solar activity in October–November 2003, a series of outstanding events distinguished by their magnitude and peculiarities were recorded by the ground based neutron monitor network. The biggest and most productive in 23rd solar cycle active region 486 generated the most significant series of solar flares among of which the flare X28/3B on November 4, 2003 was the mostly powerful over the history of X-ray solar observations. The fastest arrival of the interplanetary disturbance from the Sun after the flare event in August 1972 and the highest solar wind velocity and IMF intensity were observed during these events. In one-week period three ground level enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays were recorded by neutron monitor network (28, 29 October and 2 November 2003). Maximum proton energy in these events seems to be ranged from 5 to 10 GeV. Joint analysis of data from ground level stations (neutron monitors) and satellite measurements allows the estimation of the particle path length, the onset time of the injection on the Sun and some other proton flux characteristics.     

Using cross-correlation techniques to assess the validity of AP8 at low altitude

Background effects, such as single event upsets, are used as proxy data sets to evaluate AP8 at low altitude. The approach is to use a 2-D (longitude and latitude) cross-correlation between the background data set and the current-epoch AP8 predicted fluxes. The technique can be used to determine the energy of the particle that is producing a particular effect. This cross-correlation technique shows that using AP8 with a present-epoch magnetic field model accurately predicts the present location of the South Atlantic Anomaly proton flux enhancement and that a dual-peaked intensity structure above 100 MeV in the model is an artifact of AP8 and its interpolation routines.     

利用质子强度变化对太阳质子事件进行短期预报方法初步研究

采用GOSE-10卫星4～9 MeV(P2),9～15 MeV(P3),15～40 MeV(P4),40～80 MeV(P5)能段上的质子通量数据,结合质子能谱,对太阳质子事件发生前各能谱参数的变化特征进行分析,详细介绍利用能谱参数的变化特征及能量E>10 MeV的质子通量数据对太阳质子事件进行预报的新方法,并运用这种方法对2002-2006年期间太阳质子事件进行了预报.预报结果显示,预报提前量最多达到100 h以上,对质子事件的报准率达97.5%,预报方法具备一定的有效性和实用性.      

Comparing proton fluxes of central meridian SEP events with those predicted by SOLPENCO

We have developed an operational code, SOLPENCO, that can be used for space weather prediction schemes of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. SOLPENCO provides proton differential flux and cumulated fluence profiles from the onset of the event up to the arrival of the associated traveling interplanetary shock at the observer’s position (either 1.0 or 0.4 AU). SOLPENCO considers a variety of interplanetary scenarios where the SEP events develop. These scenarios include solar longitudes of the parent solar event ranging from E75 to W90, transit speeds of the associated shock ranging from 400 to 1700 km s⁻¹, proton energies ranging from 0.125 to 64 MeV, and interplanetary conditions for the energetic particle transport characterized by specific mean free paths. We compare the results of SOLPENCO with flux measurements of a set of SEP events observed at 1 AU that fulfill the following four conditions: (1) the association between the interplanetary shock observed at 1 AU and the parent solar event is well established; (2) the heliolongitude of the active region site is within 30° of the Sun–Earth line; (3) the event shows a significant proton flux increase at energies below 96 MeV; (4) the pre-event intensity background is low. The results are discussed in terms of the transit velocity of the shock and the proton energy. We draw conclusions about both the use of SOLPENCO as a prediction tool and the required improvements to make it useful for space weather purposes.     

影响卫星故障的空间天气分析

基于美国国家地球物理数据中心(NGDC) 2384例和中国19颗卫星的263例卫星故障信息, 结合1963-2012年小时平均的多种空间环境数据, 定量分析了三种卫星故障发生期间的空间要素特征, 探讨单粒子锁定(SEU)、表面充电致静电放电(ESD)和内部深层充电所致电子引起的电磁脉冲(ECEMP)与空间天气事件的可能联系, 得出以下主要结论. (1)大部分SEU和ECEMP发生于空间天气平静时, 但在其前后3日内地磁活动达到了磁暴水平, 相对来说比例最大的发生在Dst_min之后第3日 (48～72h). (2) ESD受地磁活动和高能电子通量影响明显. 与磁暴、相对论电子通量增强事件的季节性相对应, 两分点附近ESD和ECEMP的发生率高; 93.6% 的 ESD发生前后72h内地磁活动达到磁暴水平, 故障发生时间均匀分布在 Dst_min前0～48h 和后0～24h; 54.9%的ESD 发生时处于地磁暴期(Dst <-30nT), 以-50～-30nT的小磁暴水平居多; 40.6%的ESD发生于高能电子通量高水平期(≥ 103pfu, 1pfu =1cm-2·s-1·sr-1), 81.9%的ESD发生前后72h 内高能电子通量峰值≥ 103pfu, 发生率最高时段为电子通量峰值前 48～72h. (3)高能电子对中国同步轨道卫星的SEU影响明显, 42.5% 故障发生 时高能电子通量≥ 103pfu, 故障在峰值前48～72h和峰值后48～72h 的发生概率相当, 约为23.0%. (4)同步轨道卫星SEU受太阳质子事件的影响相对较大, 22.5%的中国同步轨道卫星故障发生前后72h内发生了太阳质子事件, 季节性不明显.      

Microelectronics effects as seen on CRRES.

A MicroElectronics Test Package (MEP) measured total dose degradation and single event upsets (SEUs) on 60 device types on the Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES) in an 18 degrees inclination orbit between 350 km and 36000 km from July 1990 to October 1991. Simultaneous measurements of the high energy particle environment were used to make a direct cause and effect comparison of the energetic particle backgrounds and microelectronic performance characteristics. The galactic cosmic ray background for the period of the CRRES mission was at a minimum. The SEUs experienced from the cosmic ray background were correspondingly few in number, but surprisingly produced an equal probability of upset over an L-shell range of 8.5 Earth radii (RE) down to less than 3.0 RE. Cosmic ray induced upset frequencies in proton sensitive chips were over 2 orders of magnitude lower than those produced by protons in the heart of the inner proton radiation belts. Multiple upsets, those produced when a single particle upsets more than one memory location, were just as common from protons as from cosmic rays.     

Space Weather Outreach: An informal education perspective

Informal science education institutions, such as science centers, play an important role in science education. They serve millions of people, including students and teachers. Within the last decade, many have tried to improve the public’s understanding of science and scientific research through informal education projects. The recent success of several space weather-related missions and research programs and the launch of the International Heliophysical Year (IHY) research and education programs make this an ideal time to inform the public about the importance and relevance of space weather to our understanding of heliophysical science. Communication efforts associated with space weather both benefit and are compromised by analogies to terrestrial weather. This paper summarizes the benefits and challenges of the terrestrial weather analogy using two exhibit evaluation studies. The paper also describes three components of the Space Science Institute’s Space Weather Outreach Program – Space Weather Center Website, Educator Workshops, and Small Exhibits – and how they can help to achieve the education goals of IHY.     

Assessment of the consequences of the Fengyun-1C breakup in low Earth orbit

On 11 January 2007, the People’s Republic of China conducted a successful anti-satellite test against one of their defunct polar-orbiting weather satellites. The target satellite, called Fengyun-1C, had a mass of 880 kg and was orbiting at an altitude of about 863 km when the collision occurred. Struck by a direct-ascent interceptor at a speed of 9.36 km/s, the satellite disintegrated, spreading the cataloged fragments between 200 and 4000 km, with the highest concentration near the breakup height. By the end of April 2008, 2377 pieces of debris, including the original payload remnant, had officially been cataloged by the US Space Surveillance Network. Of these, nearly 1% had reentered the Earth’s atmosphere. This deliberate act is the largest debris-generating event on record, and its consequences will adversely affect circumterrestrial space for many years.     

The L5 mission for space weather forecasting

We have studied a number of interplanetary space mission scenarios for space weather research and operational forecasting experiments and concluded that a spacecraft should be deployed at the L5 point of the Sun–Earth system to enable remote sensing of the Sun and interplanetary space and in situ measurements of solar wind plasma and high energy solar particle events. The L5 point is an appropriate position for making side-view observations of geo-effective coronal mass ejections and interplanetary plasma clouds.Here, we describe briefly the mission plan and the ongoing BBM development of important subsystems such as the wide field coronal imager (WCI) and the mission processor. The WCI will have a large CCD array with 16-bit sampling, to achieve a dynamic range of several thousand in order to detect very small deviations due to plasma clouds under zodiacal light contaminations a hundred times brighter than the clouds. The L5 mission we propose will surely contribute to the construction of an international space weather observation network.