Effects of strong geomagnetic storms on Northern railways in Russia

Seventeen severe magnetic storms occurred in the period 2000 through 2005. In addition there was a major magnetic storm in March 1989. During each of these storms there was an anomaly in the operation of the system of Signalization, Centralization and Blockage (SCB) in some divisions of the high-latitude (∼58 to 64°N) Russian railways. This anomaly was revealed as false traffic light signals about the occupation of the railways. These signals on the Northern railways appeared exactly during the main phases of the strongest part of the geomagnetic storms characterized by high geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp (Ap). Moreover, the durations of these anomalies coincided with the period of the greatest geomagnetic disturbances in a given event. Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) during significant strengthening of geomagnetic activity are concluded as the obvious reasons for such kind of anomalies.     

Different space weather effects in anomalies of the high and low orbital satellites

Preliminary results of the EU INTAS Project 00810, which aims to improve the methods of safeguarding satellites in the Earth’s magnetosphere from the negative effects of the space environment, are presented. Anomaly data from the “Kosmos” series satellites in the period 1971–1999 are combined in one database, together with similar information on other spacecraft. This database contains, beyond the anomaly information, various characteristics of the space weather: geomagnetic activity indices (Ap, AE and Dst), fluxes and fluences of electrons and protons at different energies, high energy cosmic ray variations and other solar, interplanetary and solar wind data. A comparative analysis of the distribution of each of these parameters relative to satellite anomalies was carried out for the total number of anomalies (about 6000 events), and separately for high (5000 events) and low (about 800 events) altitude orbit satellites. No relation was found between low and high altitude satellite anomalies. Daily numbers of satellite anomalies, averaged by a superposed epoch method around sudden storm commencements and proton event onsets for high (>1500 km) and low (<1500 km) altitude orbits revealed a big difference in a behavior. Satellites were divided on several groups according to the orbital characteristics (altitude and inclination). The relation of satellite anomalies to the environmental parameters was found to be different for various orbits that should be taken into account under developing of the anomaly frequency models.     

Solar magnetic feature detection and tracking for space weather monitoring

We present an automated system for detecting, tracking, and cataloging emerging active regions throughout their evolution and decay using SOHO Michelson Doppler Interferometer (MDI) magnetograms. The SolarMonitor Active Region Tracking (SMART) algorithm relies on consecutive image differencing to remove both quiet-Sun and transient magnetic features, and region-growing techniques to group flux concentrations into classifiable features. We determine magnetic properties such as region size, total flux, flux imbalance, flux emergence rate, Schrijver’s R-value, R^∗ (a modified version of R), and Falconer’s measurement of non-potentiality. A persistence algorithm is used to associate developed active regions with emerging flux regions in previous measurements, and to track regions beyond the limb through multiple solar rotations. We find that the total number and area of magnetic regions on disk vary with the sunspot cycle. While sunspot numbers are a proxy to the solar magnetic field, SMART offers a direct diagnostic of the surface magnetic field and its variation over timescale of hours to years. SMART will form the basis of the active region extraction and tracking algorithm for the Heliophysics Integrated Observatory (HELIO).     

COST 296 action results for space weather ionospheric monitoring and modelling

COST 296 Action refers to the project on Mitigation of Ionospheric Effects on Radio Systems (MIERS) in the framework of European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST), which is one of the longest-running European instruments supporting cooperation among scientists and researchers across Europe. The main objective of the MIERS project has been to develop an increased knowledge of the effects imposed by the ionosphere on practical radio systems, and for the development and implementation of techniques to mitigate the harmful effects of the ionosphere on such systems. This paper highlights COST 296 Action results that have been achieved during its lifetime period of February 2005–February 2009 with emphasis on space weather ionospheric monitoring and modelling.     

Combining frequency and time domain models to forecast space weather

Space weather series incorporate several distinct components, cycles at multiple frequencies, irregular trends, and nonlinear variability. The cycles are stochastic, i.e., the amplitude varies over time. Similarly, the trend is stochastic: the slope and direction of trending change repeatedly. This study sets out a combined model using both frequency and time domain methods, in two stages. In the first stage, a frequency domain algorithm is estimated and forecasted. In the second stage, the forecast is used as an input in a neural network. The combined model also includes a term enabling the model to react inversely to large deviations between the actual values and forecast. The models are evaluated using two data sets, the hemispheric power data obtained from the Polar Orbiting Environment satellites, and the Aa geomagnetic index. All the series are at a daily resolution. Forecasting experiments are run over horizons of 1–7 days. The models are estimated using a moving window or adaptive approach. The combined model consistently achieves the most accurate results. Among single equation methods, the frequency domain model is more accurate for the geomagnetic index because it is able to capture the underlying cycles more effectively. In the hemispheric power series, the cycles are less pronounced, so that time domain methods are more accurate, except at very short horizons. Nevertheless, in both data sets, the combined model works well because the frequency domain algorithm captures cyclical behavior, while the neural net is better able to capture short-term dependence and trending.     

Coronal mass ejection detection using wavelets,curvelets and ridgelets: Applications for space weather monitoring

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions of plasma and magnetic field that can produce adverse space weather at Earth and other locations in the Heliosphere. Due to the intrinsic multiscale nature of features in coronagraph images, wavelet and multiscale image processing techniques are well suited to enhancing the visibility of CMEs and suppressing noise. However, wavelets are better suited to identifying point-like features, such as noise or background stars, than to enhancing the visibility of the curved form of a typical CME front. Higher order multiscale techniques, such as ridgelets and curvelets, were therefore explored to characterise the morphology (width, curvature) and kinematics (position, velocity, acceleration) of CMEs. Curvelets in particular were found to be well suited to characterising CME properties in a self-consistent manner. Curvelets are thus likely to be of benefit to autonomous monitoring of CME properties for space weather applications.     

On the application of Exploratory Data Analysis for characterization of space weather data sets

This paper presents an overview of the mathematical foundations for techniques in Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) for the purpose of investigating the relationships among the numerous variables in large sets of multivariate space weather data. Specifically, we cover techniques in Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Common Factor Analysis (CFA). These techniques are illustrated using space weather activity indices collected during the year 2002 and the corresponding noon-time hmF2 data from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). A CFA is used to categorize the activity indices, and a PCA is used to derive two macro-indices of activity to ascertain the strength of solar and geomagnetic activity. These macro-indices are then used to compare and contrast IRI’s noon-time hmF2 values at six different geographic stations. It was found that the correlation between hmF2 and the macro-indices more accurately represented the variation of this correlation with latitude found in previous studies than if we used an isolated conventional index, such as SSN and AE. We also found that the daily maximum value of the Polar Cap Index was dependent on both solar and geomagnetic activity, but the closely-related cross-Polar Cap Potential was solely associated with elevated levels of geomagnetic activity, which is a unique result compared to previous studies. We argue that the discrepancy can be explained by the difference in experiment designs between the two studies. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of EDA in space weather studies of large multivariate data sets.     

On the detection of anomalous seismo-ionospheric behavior in the presence of space weather stimuli for large earthquakes

Anomalous behavior of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) prior to earthquake has been observed in many studies. Evidence of such seismo-ionospheric coupling effects suggests that it is plausible to rely on TEC signatures for early earthquake warning. However, the detection of pre-earthquake TEC anomalies (PETA) has not been adopted in practice due to two pertinent issues. Firstly, the effects of space weather activity can affect TEC levels and cause anomalous behavior in the TEC. Usually arbitrary thresholds are set for space weather indices to eliminate TEC anomaly due to space weather effects. Secondly, the choice regarding moving time-window length used to characterise background variation of TEC within the statistical envelope approach has an effect on detection of PETA. While the rule-of-thumb in selecting the moving window length is to have a time window capable of capturing background variability and short-term fluctuations, the length of the time window used in the literature varies with little justification. In this study, a critical examination is conducted on the statistical envelope approach and in particular, to eliminate the effect of space weather activity without the use of arbitrary space indices to detect PETA. A two-part PETA identification procedure is proposed, consisting of wavelet analyses isolating non-earthquake TEC contributions, followed by the statistical envelope method using a moving window length standardized based on observed periodicities and statistical implications is suggested. The approach is tested on a database of 30 large earthquakes (M?≥?7.0). The proposed procedure shows that PETA can be detected prior to earthquakes at higher confidence levels without the need to separately check for space weather activity. More importantly, the procedure was able to detect PETA for studies where it was previously reported that PETA could not be detected or detected convincingly.     

Distributing space weather monitoring instruments and educational materials worldwide for IHY 2007: The AWESOME and SID project

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY) aims to advance our understanding of the fundamental processes that govern the Sun, Earth, and heliosphere. The IHY Education and Outreach Program is dedicated to inspiring the next generation of space and Earth scientists as well as spreading the knowledge, beauty, and relevance of our solar system to the people of the world. In our Space Weather Monitor project we deploy a global network of sensors to high schools and universities to provide quantitative diagnostics of solar-induced ionospheric disturbances, thunderstorm intensity, and magnetospheric activity. We bring real scientific instruments and data in a cost-effective way to students throughout the world. Instruments meet the objectives of being sensitive enough to produce research-quality data, yet inexpensive enough for placement in high schools and universities. The instruments and data have been shown to be appropriate to, and usable by, high school age and early university students. Data contributed to the Stanford data center is openly shared and partnerships between groups in different nations develop naturally. Students and teachers have direct access to scientific expertise.     

The possibilities of polar meteorology,environmental remote sensing,communications and space weather applications from Artificial Lagrange Orbit

The ability to observe meteorological events in the polar regions of the Earth from satellite celebrated an anniversary, with the launch of TIROS-I in a pseudo-polar orbit on 1 April 1960. Yet, after 50 years, polar orbiting satellites are still the best view of the polar regions of the Earth. The luxuries of geostationary satellite orbit including rapid scan operations, feature tracking, and atmospheric motion vectors (or cloud drift winds), are enjoyed only by the middle and tropical latitudes or perhaps only cover the deep polar regions in the case of satellite derived winds from polar orbit. The prospect of a solar sailing satellite system in an Artificial Lagrange Orbit (ALO, also known as “pole sitters”) offers the opportunity for polar environmental remote sensing, communications, forecasting and space weather monitoring. While there are other orbital possibilities to achieve this goal, an ALO satellite system offers one of the best analogs to the geostationary satellite system for routine polar latitude observations.     

The hydroxyl radical as an indicator of SEP fluxes in the high-latitude terrestrial atmosphere

The low background values at nighttime of the mesospheric hydroxyl (OH) radical make it easier to single out the atmospheric response to the external solar forcing in Polar Regions. Because of the short lifetime of HO_x, it is possible to follow the trails of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events in the terrestrial atmosphere, as shown by Storini and Damiani (2008). The sensitivity of this indicator makes discernible not only extreme particle events with a flux peak of several thousand pfu [1 pfu = 1 particle/(cm² s sr)] at energies >10 MeV, but also those with lower flux up to about 300 pfu. Using data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on board the EOS AURA satellite, we examined the correlation of OH abundance vs. solar proton flux for almost all the identified SEP events spanning from November 2004 to December 2006 (later on no more SEP events occurred during Solar Cycle no. 23). The channels at energies greater than 5 MeV and 10 MeV showed the best correlation values (r ∼ 0.90–0.95) at altitudes around 65–75 km whereas, as expected, the most energetic channels were most highly correlated at lower altitudes. Therefore, it is reasonably possible to estimate the solar proton flux from values of mesospheric OH (and viceversa) and it could be useful in studying periods with gaps in the records of solar particles.     

Synergies of Earth science and space exploration

A more flexible policy basis from which to manage our planet in the 21st century is desirable. As one contribution, we note that synergies between space exploration and the preservation of our habitat exist, and that protecting life on Earth requires similar concepts and information as investigations of life beyond the Earth, including the expansion of human presence in space. Instrumentation and data handling to observe both planetary objects and planet Earth are based on similar techniques. Moreover, while planetary surface operations are conducted under different conditions, the technology to probe the surface and subsurface of both the Earth and other planets requires similar tools, such as radar, seismometers, and drilling devices. The Earth observation community has developed some exemplary tools and has featured successful international cooperation in data handling and sharing that could be equally well applied to robotic planetary exploration. Here we propose a network involving both communities that will enable the interchange of scientific insights and the development of new policies and management strategies. Those tools can provide a vital forum through which the management of this planet can be assisted, and in which a new bridge between the Earth-centric and space-centric communities can be built.     

Geomagnetic effects on mid-latitude railways: A statistical study of anomalies in the operation of signaling and train control equipment on the East-Siberian Railway

Intense geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) can hamper rail traffic by disturbing signaling and train control systems. GIC threats have been a concern for technological systems at high-latitude locations due to geomagnetic disturbances driven by substorm expansion electrojet or convection electrojet intensifications. However, other geomagnetic storm processes such as storm sudden commencement (SSC) and geomagnetic pulsations can also cause GIC concerns for technological systems. We present in this paper the first evidence based on statistical data for links between geomagnetic disturbances and faulty operations (anomalies) in the functioning of railway automatics and telemetry. We analyze anomalies of automatic signaling and train control equipment which occurred in 2004 on the East-Siberian Railway (corrected geomagnetic latitude _m = 46–51°N and longitude λ_m = 168–187°E). Our results reveal a seasonal effect in the number of anomalies per train similar to the one observed in geomagnetic activity (Kp, Ap, Dst indices). We also found an increase by a factor of 3 in the total duration of daily anomalies during intense geomagnetic storms (local geomagnetic index specific to Siberian Observatory A_max > 30), with a significant correlation between the daily sum of durations of anomalies with geomagnetic activity. Special attention was paid to failures not related to recognized technical malfunctions. We found that the probability of these failures occurring in geomagnetically disturbed periods was 5–7 times higher than the average anomaly occurrence.     

Cosmic radiation exposure of aircraft occupants on simulated high-latitude flights during solar proton events from 1 January 1986 through 1 January 2008

From 1 January 1986 through 1 January 2008, GOES satellites recorded 170 solar proton events. For 169 of these events, we estimated effective and equivalent dose rates and doses of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and solar cosmic radiation (SCR), received by aircraft occupants on simulated high-latitude flights. Dose rate and dose estimates that follow are for altitudes 30, 40, 50, and 60 kft, in that order.     

VHF radio response of the near Earth space during solar activity growth in October, 2003

The analysis of observations of very high frequency radio noise intensity at the middle latitude on a frequency f = 500 MHz from 14th till 26th of October, 2003 is presented. These data are compared with the solar radio bursts in the range of frequencies 1–14 MHz registered by RAD2 receiver of the WAVES device installed on board the WIND spacecraft.     

First results of MWC SAS3 electromagnetic wave experiment on board of the Chibis-M satellite

The main goals of the Chibis-M mission are the testing of a new micro-satellite technology, the study of new physical processes related to lightning activity and the verification of possible monitoring techniques of Space Weather phenomena. In frames of the Chibis-M mission an electromagnetic wave complex MWC is installed on board of the satellite composed of electromagnetic sensors and SAS3 measuring unit. The obtained data show that the scientific instrumentation operates properly and produces interesting information. Here we present the first results of the first year of operation of the MWC in the ELF–VLF bands in different operation modes. An important conclusion is that basing on the experience of the first year it is possible to realize an effective and reliable Space Weather monitoring system using micro-satellites and simultaneously operating ground support equipments.     

Coordinated control of dual-arm robot on space structure for capturing space targets

This paper presents a coordinated control scheme for two capture tasks via a dual-arm space robot with its base on a flexible space structure. The robot system consists of a base, a mission arm for capture, and a balance arm for removing disturbance forces to the base. To counteract the impact of structural vibration, a two-stage strategy containing a vibration control stage and a target capture stage is proposed. In the first stage, the robot and structure are treated as a mass-spring system in which the coupling effect between the robot and the flexible structure is exploited to suppress structural vibration. Notably, the collision avoidance between two arms is achieved by a velocity inequality constraint, wherein the reactionless motion is utilized. In the second stage, a reactionless trajectory is planned for the mission arm to reach the target location and attitude, as the balance arm remove the coupling disturbance to the base. Afterwards, the balance arm becomes the new mission arm for capture and the other arm is defined as the new balance arm. Finally, numerical simulations are given to validate the efficiency of the proposed coordinated control strategy.