A socio-economic evaluation of the lunar environment and resources: II. Energy for the selenosphere

This first of several study papers, based on a fundamental paper presented in 1972, provides an independent conceptual analysis and evaluation of the lunar environment as industrial base and habitat. A selenosphere system strategy is outlined. The underlying concept is that of one or several lunar industrial zones for resource extraction and on-surface processing, integrated with a circumlunar zero-g processing capability, serving markets in geolunar space. A classification of lunar elements by utilization category is presented. Lunar oxygen is a prime candidate for being an initial economic “drawing card”, because of its value for fast transportation in geolunar space, requiring significantly fewer ships for equal transfer capability per unit time than electric transports which, however, have value, especially between geosynchronous and lunar orbit. The reduced development difficulties of controlled fusion outside the atmosphere and its advantages for extracting oxygen and other elements in quantity are summarized. Examples of lunar cycle management as fundamental exoindustrial requirement for economic resource enhancement are presented. The principal initial socio-economic value of lunar industry lies in the use of lunar resources for exoindustrial products and operations designed to accelerate, intensify and diversify Earth-related benefits. In the longer run, lunar settlements are a highly suitable proving ground for studying and testing the complex matrix of technological, biological, cultural, social and psychological aspects that must be understood and manageable before large settlements beyond Earth can have a realistic basis for viability. The lunar environment is more suitable for experimentation and comparatively more “forgiving” in case of failures than is orbital space.     

Lunar base development missions

On 20 July 1969, humankind first set foot on our Moon. Since then we have developed the Space Shuttle, explored most of the planets, cooperated in the development of the International Space Station, and expanded our knowledge of the universe through use of systems such as the Hubble Space Telescope and the Mars Pathfinder. After just five human follow-on missions to our Moon, we have returned robotically only twice to orbit, to map the surface and explore for resources.

The indication of the presence of hydrogen concentration at the poles of our Moon found by Lunar Prospector has added a new perspective for groups studying and implementing future lunar missions. Plans for nearterm missions such as the European Space Agency (ESA) “Euromoon 2000”, the Japanese Lunar A and Selene, and the Mitsubishi ”Earthrise 2001” Project, along with follow-on phases to the Lunar Prospector, are the beginning of humankind's return to the Moon. Organizations such as the International Academy of Astronautics have long championed the “Case for an International Lunar Base,” and a vision of a commercially-based lunar program has been outlined by several groups. A Lunar Economic Development Authority (LEDA) promoted by the United Society in Space was promulgated by the filing of articles of incorporation in the state of Colorado on 4 August 1997. This non-profit corporation has as its goal the orderly development of the Moon, through issuance of bonds to international private citizens and business entities who care to invest in its long-term development.

This paper draws from the works of the aforementioned, and specifically from the International Academy of Astronautics Lunar Base Committee, to structure a series of architectures leading toward eventual international commercial colonization of the lunar surface. While the prospect of fully reusable transportation systems utilizing fully developed lunar resources to perpetuate the permanent lunar infrastructure is enticing, this is a goal. We must utilize our current and near-term capabilities to re-initiate human lunar presence, and then build on emerging technologies to strengthen our capabilities. Humankind's return to the Moon is a part of our destiny. We can return in the near future, and then proceed to a commercial, permanent settlement in the 21st century.     

Mars Direct: Humans to the red planet by 1999

“Mars Direct”, is an approach to the space Exploration Initiative that allows for the rapid initiation of manned Mars exploration, possibly as early as 1999. The approach does not require any on-orbit assembly or refueling or any support from the Space Station or other orbital infrastructure. Furthermore, the Mars Direct plan is not merely a “flags and footprints” one-shot expedition, but puts into place immediately an economical method of Earth-Mars transportation, real surface exploratory mobility, and significant base capabilities that can evolve into a mostly self-sufficient Mars settlement. This paper presents both the initial and evolutionary phases of the Mars Direct plan. In the initial phase, only chemical propulsion is used, sendig 4 persons on conjunction class Mars exploratory missions. Two heavy lift booster launches are required to support each mission. The first launch delivers an unfueled Earth Return Vehicle (ERV) to the martian surface, where it fills itself with methane/oxygen bipropellant manufactured primarily out of indigenous resources. After propellant production is completed, a second launch delivers the crew to the prepared site, where they conduct regional exploration for 1.5 years and then return directly to Earth in the ERV. In the second phase of Mars Direct, nuclear thermal propulsion is used to cut crew transit times in half, increase cargo delivery capacity, and to create the potential for true global mobility through the use of CO₂ propelled ballistic hopping vehicles (“NIMFs”). In this paper we present both phases of the Mars Direct plan, including mission architecture, vehicle designs, and exploratory strategy leading to the establishment of a 48 person permanent Mars base. Some speculative thoughts on the possibility of actually colonizing Mars are also presented.     

Rationale and systems architecture for a near-term human lunar return

Early human missions to the Moon have landed on six different sites on the lunar surface. These have all been in the low-latitude regions of the near side of the Moon. Early missions were designed primarily to assure crew safety rather than for scientific value. While the later missions added increasingly more challenging science, they remained restricted to near-side, low-latitude sites. Since the 1970s, we have learned considerably more about lunar planetology and resources. A return within the next five to ten years can greatly stimulate future human space exploration activities. We can learn much more about the distribution of lunar resources, especially about hydrogen, hydrated minerals, and water ice because they appear to be abundant near the lunar poles. The presence of hydrogen opens the possibility of industrial use of lunar resources to provide fuel for space transportation throughout the solar system.This paper discusses the rationale for near-term return of human crews to the Moon, and the advantages to be gained by selecting the Moon as the next target for human missions beyond low-Earth orbit. It describes a systems architecture for early missions, including transportation and habitation aspects. Specifically, we describe a primary transportation architecture that emphasizes existing Earth-to-orbit transportation systems, using expendable launch vehicles for cargo delivery and the Space Shuttle and its derivatives for human transportation. Transfer nodes should be located at the International Space Station (ISS) and at the Earth-Moon L1 (libration point).Each of the major systems is described, and the requisite technology readiness is assessed. These systems include Earth-to-orbit transportation, lunar transfer, lunar descent and landing, surface habitation and mobility, and return to Earth. With optimum reliance on currently existing space systems and a technology readiness assessment, we estimate the minimum development time required and perform order-of-magnitude cost estimates of a near-term human lunar mission.     

CHANG'E-2 lunar escape maneuvers to the Sun–Earth L2 libration point mission

This paper addresses lunar escape maneuvers of the first Chinese Sun–Earth L2 libration point mission by the CHANG'E-2 satellite, which is also the world's first satellite to reach the L2 point from a lunar orbit. The lunar escape maneuvers are heavily constrained by the remaining propellant and the condition of telemetry, track and command, among others. First, these constraints are analyzed and summarized to design a target L2 Lissajous orbit and an initial transfer trajectory. Second, the maneuver mathematical models are studied. The multilevel maneuver schemes which consist of phasing maneuvers and a final lunar escape maneuver are designed for actual operations. Based on the scheme analysis and comparison, the 2-maneuver scheme with a 5.3-h-period phasing orbit is ultimately selected. Finally, the mission status based on the scheme is presented and the control operation results are discussed in detail. The methodology in this paper is especially beneficial and applicable to a future multi-mission instance in the deep space exploration.     

Potential evolution of an international moon base programme

The Moon is a major target in expanding human activity in Space. President Bush has called for a Space Exploration Initiative. European participation may depend on achieving an affordable programme and identifying distinct elements for non-U.S. participation. Affordability requires that all participants can influence the “cost to user” of Base operations. If lunar activity is to evolve towards resource exploitation, there will need to be a progressive reduction in operating costs. European interest would prefer participation that allowed longer-term independent interests. The paper addresses how non-U.S. agencies could contribute valuable elements to an International Moon Base while meeting three criteria:

• — Keep a core infrastructure under U.S. control.

• — Avoid a total reliance by the partner on U.S. services.

• — Allow the partner to evolve towards an eventual, semi-autonomous or autonomous capability.

The paper illustrates possible implications of meeting these constraints through “mini infrastructures” combining several elements to form a working architecture. It is concluded that any European participation in an International Moon Base Programme should contain both Space transport and surface elements.     

Low cost planetary exploration: surrey lunar minisatellite and interplanetary platform missions

In order to meet the growing global requirement for affordable missions beyond Low Earth Orbit, two types of platform are under design at the Surrey Space Centre. The first platform is a derivative of Surrey's UoSAT-12 minisatellite, launched in April 1999 and operating successfully in-orbit. The minisatellite has been modified to accommodate a propulsion system capable of delivering up to 1700 m/s delta-V, enabling it to support a wide range of very low cost missions to LaGrange points, Near-Earth Objects, and the Moon. A mission to the Moon - dubbed “MoonShine” - is proposed as the first demonstration of the modified minisatellite beyond LEO. The second platform - Surrey's Interplanetary Platform - has been designed to support missions with delta-V requirements up to 3200 m/s, making it ideal for low cost missions to Mars and Venus, as well as Near Earth Objects (NEOs) and other interplanetary trajectories. Analysis has proved mission feasibility, identifying key challenges in both missions for developing cost-effective techniques for: spacecraft propulsion; navigation; autonomous operations; and a reliable safe mode strategy. To reduce mission risk, inherently failure resistant lunar and interplanetary trajectories are under study. In order to significantly reduce cost and increase reliability, both platforms can communicate with low-cost ground stations and exploit Surrey's experience in autonomous operations. The lunar minisatellite can provide up to 70 kg payload margin in lunar orbit for a total mission cost US$16–25 M. The interplanetary platform can deliver 20 kg of scientific payload to Mars or Venus orbit for a mission cost US$25–50 M. Together, the platforms will enable regular flight of payloads to the Moon and interplanetary space at unprecedented low cost. This paper outlines key systems engineering issues for the proposed Lunar Minisatellite and interplanetary Platform Missions, and describes the accommodation and performance offered to planetary payloads.     

Bistatic radar as a tool for earth investigation using small satellites

Bistatic radar is a facility for the Earth remote sensing, which uses large spatial diversity between its transmitter and receiver. Nomogram method is proposed to determine the radar's parameters. Analysis of the nomograms has shown that modern onboard radio facilities allow to obtain spatial resolution of about 100 m at the wavelength λ = 3 cm for LEO satellite (H = 350 km). Experiments of bistatic radiolocation of the Earth near the radioshadow zone were provided using telecommunication link “MIR” orbital station — GEO satellite at wavelength λ = 32 cm. For the first time in practice of bistatic radiolocation of the Earth from space reflected signal in radioshadow zone was observed.The analysis of experimental results verified the developed radiophysical model with the value of sea water conductivity σ = 7.0 mo/m and absorption coefficient due to atmospheric oxygen χ = 0.0096±0.0024 dB/km.     

Production possibility frontiers for a cis-lunar transportation system

A cis-lunar transportation system (CLTS) can be designed to provide combinations of two services: lunar export and lunar import. The set of all such combinations is called the production possibility frontier (PPF), which in turn is a familiar concept from micro-economics. The CLTS envisioned operates flights between space stations in low Earth orbit (LEO) and low lunar orbit (LLO), and flights between LLO and lunar base (LB). A system of 28 equations is presented which models the interactions between structure, payload and propellants in the CLTS. The traffic ratio of LB-LLO-LB flights to LEO-LLO-LEO flights is determined to be a key parameter for achieving high lunar export/import ratios. It is also shown that the CLTS can achieve a significant net mass gain in LEO, thus creating the possibility of lunar exports generating revenues for the colony by competing on price in LEO with terrestrial exports.     

Characterizing the near-earth object hazard and its mitigation

Within observational constraints and analytic orbit determinations, potential NEO hazards and mitigations are characterized in terms of orbit displacements to establish (arbitrary) “safe” closest approach distances and corresponding energies that must be externally applied to achieve appropriate orbit displacements from the Earth. Required orbital velocity changes depend on projected closest Earth approach distances and time to (near) impact. Energy to achieve orbital displacement depends on NEO mass, required orbital velocity change, and the energy–momentum coupling coefficient. Errors in these parameters introduce uncertainties into hazard index and mitigation procedures. Hazard avoidance levels and mitigation indices for nine near-Earth asteroids, including 1997 XF₁₁ and 1999 AN₁₀, with non-zero Earth-impact probabilities are computed as examples of the proposed methodology, generating insight into the dilemma of predicting near impacts. This zeroth order approximation should not be construed as solving an orbital mechanics problem, nor establishing a particular set of criteria for mitigation action, but rather as a “survival index”.     

月球轨道交会任务的远程导引变轨策略研究

对国内外月球轨道交会远程导引段变轨策略的2~5脉冲变轨方案进行了比较分析,在考虑月球轨道交会飞行任务测控资源有限和航天器所带燃料受限等特点的基础上,确定了我国月球轨道交会远程导引段的变轨策略为4脉冲方案;并介绍了在4脉冲基线轨道方案的基础上,进行标称轨道设计和月面上升窗口初步分析的结果。研究结果可为我国月球轨道交会对接任务提供参考。     

载人登月舱概念设计阶段多方案比较方法初探

载人登月舱是完成载人登月任务的关键环节,也是登月飞行器系统的核心部分。由于登月舱推进剂占总质量的70％以上,因此在概念设计阶段,多方案比较应重点针对推进剂类型及其对应的构型开展对比分析,从而明确总体方案的深入方向。文章给出了该多方案比较的基本思路,并利用美国Altair登月舱作为实例具体说明该方法的基本流程,首先开展月面着陆器的分级方案选择分析、多种推进剂选择分析,并根据推进剂选择分析的结果,完成上升级、二级方案下降级、三级方案制动级的构型方案分析以及气闸舱的布局分析,最后给出组合多种可行方案,并对多种方案进行综合评价,开展比较分析,筘得帚倦对比音塞曲詹缝铖人签目舱柏袷证工椎打下了基础。     

Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator

The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.     

The data compression problem for the “GAIA” astrometric satellite of ESA

Space-based astrometry has a great tradition at ESA. The first space-based astrometric satellite in history, “Hipparcos”, was launched by ESA in 1989 and, in spite of orbital problems, was able to accomplish almost all of its tasks until it was finally shut down in 1993. The results of the Hipparcos mission were published by ESA in 1997 in the form of six CD-ROMs: the Hipparcos Catalogue contains 118,218 entries with median astrometric precision of around 1 milliarcsec, and specific results for double and multiple systems. In practice, Hipparcos drew for the first time the three-dimensional “map” of the spherical region of the Galaxy surrounding the Sun and having a radius of roughly 1,000 light years.

Then, in 1995, ESA launched the study of a new astrometric satellite, named “GAIA” and about a hundred times more powerful than Hipparcos, i.e. with median astrometric precision of around 10 microarcsec. This new satellite is intended to measure the parallaxes of over 50 million stars in the Galaxy, at least for the brightest stars, and this would mean to “draw” the three-dimensional map of the whole Galaxy, reaching out even to the Magellanic Clouds, 180,000 light years away.

The team of European scientists and engineers now designing GAIA, however, is facing hard technological difficulties. One of these is the design and coding of radically new and ultra-powerful mathematical algorithms for the on-board compression of the 50-million-stars data that GAIA will send to Earth from its intended geostationary orbit. Preliminary estimates of the raw data rates from the GAIA focal plane, in fact, are of the order of a few Gigabits per second. To reduce the data stream to the envisaged telemetry link of 1 Megabit per second, on-board data compression with a 1 to 1,000 ratio is the target. Clearly, this is far beyond the capabilities of any lossless compression technique (enabling compression ratios of 1 to some tens), and so some “wise” lossy compression mathematical procedure must be adopted.

In this paper a GAIA-adapted lossy data compression technique is presented, based on the Karhunen-Loève Transform (KLT). The essence of this method was already used by NASA for the Galileo mission when the large antenna got stuck and the mission was rescued by re-programming the on-board computer in terms of the KLT. That transform was officially named ICT — “Integer Cosine Transform” — by the NASA-JPL team led by Dr. Kahr-Ming Cheung. But the KLT here described for GAIA will of course differ from the JPL one in many regards, owing to the advances in computer technology.

Finally, estimates are also given about the possibility of using the KLT for onboard data compression in case GAIA is going to be put into orbit around the Lagrangian point L2 of the Earth-Sun system, and, above all, in case the number of stars to be observed is actually raised from 50 millions to one billion, as ESA currently appears to be likely to pursue.     

The past and future of the earth-moon system

The lunar orbit is presently expanding due, we believe, to tidal friction, i.e. the attraction of the moon for the tides it raises on the rotating Earth. The Moon may therefore have been significantly closer to the Earth in the distant past, a point of great interest to those studying the lunar origin. This work presents the results of the integration of the equations which govern the rates of change of the lunar orbit elements and the angular momentum of the Earth. Results are presented for both the past and future of the Earth-Moon system.     

Beyond earth's boundaries: Human exploration of the Solar System

The USA has adopted the long-term goal of exploring the space frontier, including establishing human settlements beyond Earth orbit. This article describes four candidate missions for developing pathways into the Solar System which have been identified by NASA's Office of Exploration: human expeditions to Phobos and Mars, a lunar observatory and a lunar outpost to assist Mars explorations. The requirements placed upon near-term programmes by each of these missions are outlined and the elements necessary for a long-term implementation strategy are analysed.     

Influence of sensor and actuator errors on impulsive satellite formation control methods

This paper investigates how sensor and actuator errors are impacting formation control accuracy and propellant consumption of a two-satellite formation in a low Earth orbit. Realistic relative navigation errors are implemented, based on the results from the PRISMA mission, as well as realistic actuator uncertainty and actuator constraints. Two impulsive control methods are investigated. The first method is based on a controller that is implemented onboard PRISMA and the second method uses linear programming to arrive at a model predictive controller. The control methods are tested in a simulation environment and are subjected to orbital perturbations and realistic sensor errors and actuator errors. Both control methods are able to maintain the desired relative geometry of a projected circular orbit in the presence of the errors. The PRISMA control method demonstrates lower propellant consumption, while the model predictive controller shows better control accuracy. The results show that, based on the used scenario, sensor errors dominate both the formation control accuracy and propellant consumption. The versatility of the model predictive controller is demonstrated in a challenging formation control scenario including formation maintenance and formation reconfiguration tasks.     

Manifold dynamics in the Earth–Moon system via isomorphic mapping with application to spacecraft end-of-life strategies

Recently, manifold dynamics has assumed an increasing relevance for analysis and design of low-energy missions, both in the Earth–Moon system and in alternative multibody environments. With regard to lunar missions, exterior and interior transfers, based on the transit through the regions where the collinear libration points L₁ and L₂ are located, have been studied for a long time and some space missions have already taken advantage of the results of these studies. This paper is focused on the definition and use of a special isomorphic mapping for low-energy mission analysis. A convenient set of cylindrical coordinates is employed to describe the spacecraft dynamics (i.e. position and velocity), in the context of the circular restricted three-body problem, used to model the spacecraft motion in the Earth–Moon system. This isomorphic mapping of trajectories allows the identification and intuitive representation of periodic orbits and of the related invariant manifolds, which correspond to tubes that emanate from the curve associated with the periodic orbit. Heteroclinic connections, i.e. the trajectories that belong to both the stable and the unstable manifolds of two distinct periodic orbits, can be easily detected by means of this representation. This paper illustrates the use of isomorphic mapping for finding (a) periodic orbits, (b) heteroclinic connections between trajectories emanating from two Lyapunov orbits, the first at L₁, and the second at L₂, and (c) heteroclinic connections between trajectories emanating from the Lyapunov orbit at L₁ and from a particular unstable lunar orbit. Heteroclinic trajectories are asymptotic trajectories that travels at zero-propellant cost. In practical situations, a modest delta-v budget is required to perform transfers along the manifolds. This circumstance implies the possibility of performing complex missions, by combining different types of trajectory arcs belonging to the manifolds. This work studies also the possible application of manifold dynamics to defining suitable, convenient end-of-life strategies for spacecraft orbiting the Earth. Seven distinct options are identified, and lead to placing the spacecraft into the final disposal orbit, which is either (a) a lunar capture orbit, (b) a lunar impact trajectory, (c) a stable lunar periodic orbit, or (d) an outer orbit, never approaching the Earth or the Moon. Two remarkable properties that relate the velocity variations with the spacecraft energy are employed for the purpose of identifying the optimal locations, magnitudes, and directions of the velocity impulses needed to perform the seven transfer trajectories. The overall performance of each end-of-life strategy is evaluated in terms of time of flight and propellant budget.     

The hidden costs of reliability and failure in launch systems

In comparing the costs of different launch vehicles, the possibility of the risk of failure is assumed to be accounted for by the cost of insurance. The satellite may be insured against loss during launch, and the launch services provider may offer a “free relaunch.” However, actual costs of reliability and failure extend beyond this. Each failure necessitates an investigation and a “get well” programme by the operating agency, while putting the operations team “on hold” until services can resume. A commercial operator may also lose customer revenue and actual customers through loss of confidence or unavailability. Such costs tend to be hidden, and not evaluated in assessing the effectiveness of a system, but count towards total costs. Failure investigations help to improve system reliability, but this could equally have been achieved by expenditure in development and qualification. Reusable launch vehicles will have different costs associated with reliability and failure. The relationship between reliability and cost, properly assessed, ought to influence the design of both expendable and reusable launch systems.     

Contingency and recovery options for the European Student Moon Orbiter

This paper presents an overview of the analysis performed on the lunar orbit and some of the possible contingencies for the European Student Moon Orbiter (ESMO). Originally scheduled for launch in 2014 –2015 as a piggyback payload, it was the only ESA planned mission to the Moon. By way of a weak stability boundary transfer, ESMO is inserted into an orbit around the Moon. Propellant use is at a premium, so the operational orbit is selected to be highly eccentric. In addition, an optimization is presented to achieve an orbit that is stable for 6 months without requiring orbit maintenance. A parameter study is undertaken to study the sensitivity of the lunar orbit insertion. A database of transfer solutions across 2014 and 2015 is used to study the relation between the robustness of weak capture and the planetary geometry at lunar arrival. A number of example recovery scenarios, where the orbit insertion maneuver partially or completely fails, are also considered.