What is wrong with space system cost models? A survey and assessment of cost estimating approaches

Despite several decades of research and refinement in cost estimating tools and practices, the final cost of US space programs continues to exceed initial cost estimates by an average of more than 45%. Thus, program cost models not only exhibit error, they are seriously biased. A structured review surveyed techniques, approaches, models and conceptual tools related to space program cost estimating, to understand cost in complex space systems. Analysis shows problems of cost estimating result from the growing complexity of space programs, failures in managing growth, and mission failures. Although there is greater expectation for the models to accurately predict program costs, the current models used for seeking funding for large space programs are inadequate due to (1) inability to predict future, (2) lack of insight, and (3) process replaces judgment in decision making.     

基于特征空间变换的运载火箭Pogo模型降阶方法

针对运载火箭Pogo状态空间模型存在维数高和奇异性的问题,开展了 Pogo模型的降阶方法研究.基于特征空间变换理论,导出了一般形式的Pogo状态空间模型的解耦形式.该形式与推进系统和结构系统的模态频率相对应,从而通过模态截断或保留感兴趣的模态实现有效的模型降阶.同时,还给出了降阶方法的实数运算公式.在两种不同型号推进系...     

Orbital manoeuvres of free flying platforms for retrieval by space shuttle

In a typical future mission a free flying platform will be released to space by Space Shuttle. After performing its active mission, it will have to wait for a suitable later Shuttle flight for retrieval at its original orbital altitude. To allow for the orbital descent during the total mission time of typically several months, one or several orbit raise manoeuvres have to be performed with the platform's own propulsion system. In the paper, the velocity-requirements Δv for these orbital transfers, depending on Sun activity, rendezvous-altitude, ballistic coefficient and longest expected mission time are treated.The simplest manoeuvre, consisting of one initial ascent transfer and one descent transfer at the actual retrieval date, is shown to be not optimal. Up to 25% of Δv can be saved, if several orbit raising transfers in a certain sequence are applied. A straightforward analytical treatment is presented for the optimization, while a computer program with the CIRA-atmosphere model is used for actual mission planning.     

空间光学系统技术发展探讨

文章总览国际典型大科学工程和计划，对空间光学系统技术在过去20年的发展做出了简要的归纳和总结。同时通过跟踪一些领域前沿和技术生长点，指出了一些可能对未来空间光学系统带来重大改变的方向。     

基于CDMA容量的星载多波束天线赋形分析

建立LEO-CDMA通信系统容量分析模型,给出系统容量的计算方法,从系统容量的角度出发对比分析运用遗传算法赋形得到的波束增益模型和基于二阶锥形模型的波束增益模型的系统容量。结果表明,基于二阶锥形增益模型的系统容量约为基于赋形增益模型系统容量的两倍。分析结果为多波束接收天线的系统设计及赋形方案设计提供了理论依据。     

轨道误差对空间站高精度时间比对的影响分析及修正方法

针对空间站飞行轨道的特点，从理论上分析了空间站轨道误差对单向和共视时间比对的影响，并通过仿真试验对理论分析结果进行校验，研究结果表明轨道误差对空间站时间比对的影响在几百皮秒量级，是影响空间站时间比对精度的主要误差源。提出一种适用于两个地面站间进行高精度时间比对的空间站轨道误差修正方法，通过仿真试验校验了该方法的有效性。试验结果表明，该方法能有效修正空间站轨道误差，实现精度在几十皮秒量级的两地面站间的超高精度时间比对，比对基线可达上千千米。     

变长竿式制导问题数学模型

制导问题数学模型对研究交会及拦截问题都具有重要意义，本文提出一种变长竿式制导问题数学模型，此模型视线被当作一条变和旋转竿，通过研究其旋转，长度变化来研究制导系统性能，比常用模型含有更多关于制导问题性能的信息。用它释放了比例导引律下小视线距视线角速率失稳原因，提出了制导系统视线全值域角速率稳定以提高制导精度的设计方法，讨论了比例导引能否实现预测栏截问题等。     

非线性能量阱对飞轮振动抑制效果的实验研究

利用薄片金属梁作为非线性刚度元件,构建一种非线性能量阱。为了验证非线性能量阱对飞轮振动特性的抑制效果,搭建地面飞轮测试系统。分别采用力锤敲击和飞轮以恒定转速运行的方法施加不同载荷,对安装非线性能量阱前后测试系统各典型位置的振动响应进行对比研究。利用实测数据,采用傅里叶变换方法将动态响应信息分别在时间域和频率域内展开。研究表明：力锤敲击产生的冲击载荷和飞轮以恒定转速运行产生的稳态载荷均可以激发非线性能量阱定向能量传输;受非线性能量阱的影响,柔性支架设备安装面和飞轮安装面振动响应得到有效抑制。但是,由于非线性能量阱阻尼和吸振子质量较小,不同程度削弱了其振动抑制效果。     

Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation

In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.     

Combining solar science and asteroid science with the space weather observation network (SWON)

The peculiarity of space weather for Earth orbiting satellites, air traffic and power grids on Earth and especially the financial and operational risks posed by damage due to space weather, underline the necessity of space weather observation. The importance of such observations is even more increasing due to the impending solar maximum. In recognition of this importance we propose a mission architecture for solar observation as an alternative to already published mission plans like Solar Probe (NASA) or Solar Orbiter (ESA). Based upon a Concurrent Evaluation session in the Concurrent Engineering Facility of the German Aerospace Center, we suggest using several spacecraft in an observation network. Instead of placing such spacecraft in a solar orbit, we propose landing on several asteroids, which are in opposition to Earth during the course of the mission and thus allow observation of the Sun's far side. Observation of the far side is especially advantageous as it improves the warning time with regard to solar events by about 2 weeks. Landing on Inner Earth Object (IEO) asteroids for observation of the Sun has several benefits over traditional mission architectures. Exploiting shadowing effects of the asteroids reduces thermal stress on the spacecraft, while it is possible to approach the Sun closer than with an orbiter. The closeness to the Sun improves observation quality and solar power generation, which is intended to be achieved with a solar dynamic system. Furthermore landers can execute experiments and measurements with regard to asteroid science, further increasing the scientific output of such a mission. Placing the spacecraft in a network would also benefit the communication contact times of the network and Earth. Concluding we present a first draft of a spacecraft layout, mission objectives and requirements as well as an initial mission analysis calculation.     

Radiation danger in prolonged manned space flights

The author examines methods for prognosticating solar activity for several decades to determine optimum periods for prolonged space flight. The focus of the discussion is the presence of a change in magnetic polarity at the beginning of each 11-year solar cycle, resulting in a 22-year cycle. An historical review of solar cycles determined a super cycle of about 180 years. Using this data, it is determined that solar activity will be weak through the end of the 20th century.     

Concentration of ions in the topside ionosphere as measured onboard the <Emphasis Type="Italic">DEMETER</Emphasis> satellite: Morphology and dependence on solar and geomagnetic activity

Variations in concentration of ions H⁺, He⁺, and O⁺ are studied at a height of about 700 km using the data of continuous observations onboard the DEMETER satellite at the decline and in the minimum of solar activity from 2004 to 2008. Latitudinal distributions, seasonal behavior, and irregular variations in ion concentrations and their dependence on solar and geomagnetic activity are considered. Within this altitude range, for the first time an analysis is performed of the dataset of many-year continuous observations in both hemispheres from the equatorial to subauroral latitudes. This made it possible to describe the seasonal and irregular variations of the concentrations of main ion species with better time and spatial resolution than in the available empirical models. The dependence of concentrations of three types of ions on solar and geomagnetic activity is studied at time scales from several days to several years, and it is shown that the anti-phase change in concentrations of O⁺ and light ions known from publications is partly a result of mutual dependence of solar and geomagnetic activity and is observed only at time scales beginning from several months. At time scales from several days to several weeks, variations in the concentration of O⁺ and light ions are governed mainly by solar and geomagnetic activity, respectively.     

Prospects for a European space administration

This paper addresses legal issues relating to the relationship between ESA and the EU. At present, several policy options are being discussed on how the two international organisations might enhance their cooperation in order to allow Europe's space activities to become more efficient and more competitive. The political options can be classified into four models, each having its specific implications concerning institutional and substantive legal questions. It becomes equally apparent that any cooperation of the two organisations will have certain effects on the funding of space programmes. The paper outlines the various models against the background of the latest policy developments and gives an overview of the possible implications of the models.     

空间太阳能电站的关键技术及发展建议

1968年美国的P. Glaser博士最早提出空间太阳能电站（SSPS）概念构想。作为一个巨大的空间系统,空间太阳能电站的技术难度非常大,其真正实现预计还需要几十年的时间。文章通过对国外典型空间太阳能电站概念及其关键技术进行比较分析,在此基础上初步提出空间太阳能电站关键技术体系和发展建议。     

Hankel范数准则的应用：多变量模型匹配设计方法

本文在Hankel范数空间研究多变量控制系统模型匹配问题,其中包括完全和不完全模型匹配。应用本文提出的方法,可以获得一个Hankel范数意义下的最优模型匹配控制器。文中提出了一种多变量控制系统完全模型匹配的充要条件。如果这一条件满足,可实现完全模型匹配。如果条件不满足,可以求得一个最优的近似解。文中还给出了设计例子。     

拦截大气层内机动目标的深度强化学习制导律

针对大气层内高速机动目标的拦截问题，提出了一种基于双延迟深度确定性策略梯度(TD3)算法的深度强化学习制导律，它直接将交战状态信息映射为拦截弹的指令加速度，是一种端到端、无模型的制导策略。首先，将攻防双方的交战运动学模型描述为适用于深度强化学习算法的马尔科夫决策过程，之后通过合理地设计算法训练所需的交战场景、动作空间、状态空间和网络结构，并引入奖励函数整形和状态随机初始化，构建了完整的深度强化学习制导算法。仿真结果表明：与比例导引和增强比例导引两种方案相比，深度强化学习制导策略在脱靶量更小的同时能够降低对中制导精度的要求；具有良好的鲁棒性和泛化能力，并且计算负担较小,具备在弹载计算机上运行的条件。     

基于等效质量的太空机械臂多体系统碰撞分析

从等效质量角度出发,针对不同的操作环境,提出多体系统离散碰撞动力学建模及连续碰撞动力学建模方法,并分析碰撞对系统造成的影响。首先,由系统动力学方程及能量方程推导出太空机械臂末端等效质量,在此基础上,针对刚/柔环境,分别建立多体系统离散碰撞动力学模型和连续碰撞动力学模型,并针对七种连续碰撞模型提出选取标准,以便更真实地模拟实际碰撞过程。最后,以典型的太空七自由度机械臂为例开展仿真试验,两种方法的对比结果校验了该算法的正确性。     

Forecasting the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances produced by it

A brief review is given of contemporary approaches to solving the problem of medium-term forecast of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind (SW) and of the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by it. At the present time, two promising models of calculating the velocity of quasi-stationary SW at the Earth’s orbit are realized. One model is the semi-empirical model of Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) which allows one to calculate the dependence V(t) of SW velocity at the Earth’s orbit using measured values of the photospheric magnetic field. This model is based on calculation of the local divergence f _S of magnetic field lines. The second model is semi-empirical model by Eselevich-Fainshtein-Rudenko (EFR). It is based on calculation in a potential approximation of the area of foot points on the solar surface of open magnetic tubes (sources of fast quasistationary SW). The new Bd-technology is used in these calculations, allowing one to calculate instantaneous distributions of the magnetic field above the entire visible surface of the Sun. Using predicted V(t) profiles, one can in EFR model calculate also the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by quasi-stationary SW. This intensity is expressed through the K _p index. In this paper the EFR model is discussed in detail. Some examples of epignosis and real forecast of V(t) and K _p (t) are discussed. A comparison of the results of applying these two models for the SW velocity forecasting is presented.     

基于射线追踪的快速雷达图像仿真方法

为了解决目标识别、隐身目标设计等研究领域对雷达图像需求日益增加的问题,提出了一种基于射线追踪的快速雷达图像仿真方法。该方法利用射线追踪计算每一个射线管的散射电场及其在雷达成像平面的投影坐标,通过将所有射线管的贡献在像域进行累加得到1幅二维雷达图像。通过对不同路径射线的聚类,可实现对散射贡献的分离,从而建立目标部件与强散射源的对应关系,并对复杂目标雷达图像进行解释。给出了Slicy目标的快速雷达图像仿真与算例分析,分析结果表明:基于射线追踪的快速雷达图像仿真方法可对复杂雷达图像进行有效预测,并能对强散射源进行成因分析。     

一种应用于空间碎片演化模型的碰撞概率算法

针对碰撞概率算法Cube模型参数影响空间碎片演化模型的仿真结果问题进行了深入分析与研究，并将原Cube算法进行改进，由此提出I-Cube模型。经过多次蒙特卡洛仿真结果验证，I-Cube模型对演化过程中空间碎片碰撞概率的计算更为准确合理，空间碎片长期演化模型的结果不再依赖于自身碰撞概率算法的相关参数，提高了空间碎片长期演化模型的稳定性与可信度。