Is there an abnormal enhancement of atmospheric aerosol before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake?

There are extensive reports of ionospheric disturbances before the great 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, which are possibly explained by seismogenic electric field hypotheses linked with the aerosols injected in atmosphere. This paper attempts to investigate the possible change of atmospheric aerosol optical depth (AOD) associated with this earthquake by using MODIS data from both Terra and Aqua satellites. The result shows a clear enhancement of AOD along the Longmenshan faults 7 days before the quake, which is 1 day and 4 days earlier than the reported negative and positive ionospheric disturbances, respectively, and is 1 day earlier than or quasi-synchronism with other reported atmospheric anomalies including air temperature, outgoing longwave radiation and relative humidity. Particularly, the spatial distribution of AOD enhancement is very local and it is correlated well with the active faults and surface ruptures. We suggest that this unique enhancement could be associated with the Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere coupling process during the preparation of the Wenchuan earthquake.     

Variations of equatorial electrojet as possible seismo-ionospheric precursor at the occurrence of TEC anomalies before strong earthquake

The measurements of GPS signal delays show that the local areas of increased/decreased Total Electron Content (TEC) of the ionosphere can be observed before strong earthquakes. The main possible cause of these TEC disturbances is the vertical plasma drift under the action of zonal electric field. The spatial pattern of electric potentials for such electric field was proposed. The model calculations were done to investigate the efficiency of the proposed mechanism. The calculation results revealed the agreement with TEC variations observed before strong earthquakes and showed that the equatorial electrojet variations can be considered as precursors of earthquakes.     

强震前异常电场激发声重波对电离层的影响

震前地震孕育期地表异常增强的电场,通过大气电导率传输到电离层高度.该异常电场通过非稳态局部加热,可以在电离层高度激发声重波.基于该理论,利用一维时变中纬电离层物理模型,模拟了该扰动源对电离层电子密度的影响.结果表明,重力波引起的中性风速度扰动对电离层电子密度分布影响甚微,该机理无法解释震前电离层异常扰动现象.      

Anomalous enhancement of electric field derived from ionosonde data before the great Wenchuan earthquake

The seismo-ionospheric coupling is a hot topic of modern scientific research. One of the most reasonable mechanisms is the hypothesis of quasistatic electric field. With a preliminary analytical method, electric field in F2-region before Wenchuan earthquake was derived from the five lower latitude ground-based ionosondes: Lhasa (29.63°N, 91.17°E), Chongqing (29.50°N, 106.40°E), Kunming (25.00°N, 102.70°E), Guangzhou (23.15°N, 113.35°E) and Haikou (23.15°N, 110.35°E). The results show that there was an anomalous enhancement of electric field in F2-region close to the epicenter with maximal amplitude ∼2 mV/m (about 10 times of the background) at 15:00 LT on 9 May, which is in line with the amplitudes of anomalous electric field related to some previous earthquakes observed by satellites.     

Modeling the pre-earthquake electrostatic effect on the F region ionosphere

This paper presents the results of modeling the ionospheric effect of the seismogenic electrostatic field (SEF) seen at the earth’s surface as a perturbation of the vertical atmospheric electrostatic field in the earthquake preparation zone. The SEF distribution at ionospheric altitudes is obtained as an analytical solution of the continuity equation for the electric current density. It is shown that at night, the horizontally large scale SEF can efficiently penetrate into the ionosphere and produce noticeable changes in the horizontal distribution of the F region electron density. The results suggest that the seismogenic electrostatic field could be a possible source for the ionospheric variations observed over Taiwan before the strong Chi Chi earthquake of September 21, 1999.     

Surface latent heat flux anomalies quasi-synchronous with ionospheric disturbances before the 2007 Pu’er earthquake in China

One of various mechanisms of pre-earthquake lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling as possible explanation of the seismo-ionospheric effects is connected with the release of latent heat. Abnormal variations of ionospheric electromagnetic parameters possibly related to the 2007 Ms 6.4 Pu’er earthquake in China were reported. This paper attempts to examine whether there were abnormal changes of surface latent heat flux (SLHF) linked with this pre-earthquake ionospheric disturbances. The spatio-temporal statistical analyzes of multi-years SLHF data from USA NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project reveal that local SLHF enhancements appeared 11, 10 and 7 days before the Pu’er earthquake, respectively. As contrasted to the formerly reported local ionospheric Ne enhancement 9 days before the shock observed by DEMETER satellite, it is discovered that the SLHF and Ne anomalies are quasi-synchronous and have good spatial correspondence with the epicentre and the local active faults. This is valuable for understanding the seismogenic coupling processes and for recognizing earthquake anomaly with multiple parameters from integrated Earth observation system.     

Genetic algorithm for TEC seismo-ionospheric anomalies detection around the time of the Solomon (Mw = 8.0) earthquake of 06 February 2013

On 6 February 2013, at 12:12:27 local time (01:12:27 UTC) a seismic event registering M_w 8.0 struck the Solomon Islands, located at the boundaries of the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates. Time series prediction is an important and widely interesting topic in the research of earthquake precursors. This paper describes a new computational intelligence approach to detect the unusual variations of the total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the powerful Solomon earthquake using genetic algorithm (GA). The GA detected a considerable number of anomalous occurrences on earthquake day and also 7 and 8 days prior to the earthquake in a period of high geomagnetic activities. In this study, also the detected TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed TEC anomalies by applying the mean, median, wavelet, Kalman filter, ARIMA, neural network and support vector machine methods. The accordance in the final results of all eight methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the GA method. It indicates that GA can be an appropriate non-parametric tool for anomaly detection in a non linear time series showing the seismo-ionospheric precursors variations.     

The ionospheric effect of atmospheric gravity waves excited prior to strong earthquake

We have computed perturbations in the nighttime mid-latitude F2 region ionosphere that could be produced by internal atmospheric gravity waves generated before strong earthquakes through ionospheric Joule heating due to the seismogenic electric field of short duration. There is a strong anisotropy of the atmospheric gravity wave effect with respect to the imminent earthquake epicentre, the electron density changes being maximum poleward and equatorward of the epicentre and being minimum eastward and westward of it. It should be noted that the duration of the electron density perturbation in the F2 region ionosphere is much longer than the duration of the primary precursor of an earthquake – the enhancement of the vertical electric field at the Earth’s surface, which initiates the atmospheric gravity wave generation. This fact is important from the practical point of view of predicting catastrophic earthquakes.     

Model for the VLF/LF radio signal anomalies formation associated with earthquakes

The influence of quasi-static electric field of seismic origin on the characteristics of the internal gravity waves (IGWs) in the Earth’s ionosphere is considered. The electric field in the ionosphere arises due to the injection of charged aerosols into the atmosphere, formation of an EMF in the near Earth atmosphere and perturbation of the conductive electric current in the global electric circuit. Amplification of the electric current in seismic zone is accompanied by the formation of perturbation of the lower ionosphere that affects the amplitude and phase of VLF/LF signals. The action of the electric field on the IGWs is connected with the appearance of the Ampere’s force in the ionosphere. In the spectral range of these waves the latter acts on the neutral component of the ionosphere plasma. As the result of this interaction the ionosphere starts to support the discrete spectrum of oscillations. Periods of their maximums increase as numbers of natural sequence. The existence of such peculiarities of the waves in the ionosphere is confirmed by observations.     

Ionospheric precursors observed at low latitudes around the time of koyna earthquake

On December 11, 1967 at 05:21 LT, an immense earthquake of magnitude 6.7 struck Koyna, the Indian province of Maharashtra. Its epicenter was located at geographic latitude 17.37°N and longitude 73.75°E with depth of about 3 km. Ground based measurements show variation in the critical frequency of ionospheric F2 layer (foF2) before and after the shock. In the present study the behavior of F2-region of ionosphere has been examined over the equatorial and low latitudinal region ionosphere during the month of December 1967 around the time of Koyna earthquake. For this purpose, the ionospheric data collected with the help of ground-based ionosondes installed at Hyderabad (located close to the earthquake epicenter) Ahmedabad, Trichirapulli, Kodaikanal and Trivendrum have been utilized. The upper and lower bound of Interquartile range (IRQ) are constructed to monitor the variations in foF2 other than day-to-day and diurnal pattern for finding the seismo-ionospheric precursors. Some anomalous electron density variations are observed between post midnight hours to local pre-noon hours at each station. These anomalies are strongly time dependent and appeared a couple of days before the main shock. The period considered in this study comes under the quiet geomagnetic conditions. Hence, the observed anomalies (which are more than the usual day-to-day variability) over all stations are likely to be associated with this imminent earthquake. The possible mechanism to explain these anomalies is the effect of seismogenic electric field generated just above the surface of earth within the earthquake preparation zone well before the earthquake due to emission of radioactive particles and then propagated upward, which perturbs the F-region ionosphere.     

Two-dimensional ionospheric total electron content map (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies through image processing using principal component analysis

This paper examines China’s Wenchuan Earthquake of 12 May 2008 (UTC) (M_w = 7.9) using principal component analysis and image processing of the global ionospheric map (GIM) for the region. Transforms are conducted for 4, 8, and 9 May 2008. The GIMs are subdivided into 100 (36° in Long. and 18° in Lat.) smaller maps. The smaller maps (71 × 71 pixels) form the transform matrices of corresponding dimensions (2 × 1) through image processing. The transform allows for principle eigenvalues to be assigned to TEC anomalies for May 8 and 9. These may represent the seismo-ionospheric signature described by Zhao et al. (2008). The May 4 result shows no evidence of TEC anomalies. These results are in keeping with the findings of Liu et al. (2009). It is evident in this research that PCA could have the capacity to detect both the seismo-ionospheric signature and determine the approximate location of an earthquake’s epicenter prior to nucleation.     

Ground-based and satellite DC-ULF electric field anomalies around Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake

The ground-based and satellite DC-ULF electric field data were analyzed around Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake on May 12, 2008 in China. The results show that ground electric field anomalies occurred at 3 stations located to the north and south of the epicenter with the amplitude of 3–100 mV/km. The change shapes and their amplitude of ground electric field anomalies are different largely due to their individual underground layer conductivity, water level and so on. The analysis of long time series illustrates that the abnormal geoelectric field started since March 2008. Onboard the DEMETER satellite, the ULF waveforms of electric field were collected and processed by wavelet transform method. The disturbances in the ionosphere were about 3–5 mV/m at a frequency band lower than 0.5 Hz. When the ground and space electric field anomalies were compared, their occurrence time and spatial distribution points are consistent with each other, including the long time anomalies from March 2008 and the short term ones 1–2 days before the Wenchuan earthquake. Finally, the coupling mechanism was discussed.     

Case study of inclined sporadic E layers in the Earth’s ionosphere observed by CHAMP/GPS radio occultations: Coupling between the tilted plasma layers and internal waves

We have used the radio occultation (RO) satellite data CHAMP/GPS (Challenging Minisatellite Payload/Global Positioning System) for studying the ionosphere of the Earth. A method for deriving the parameters of ionospheric structures is based upon an analysis of the RO signal variations in the phase path and intensity. This method allows one to estimate the spatial displacement of a plasma layer with respect to the ray perigee, and to determine the layer inclination and height correction values. In this paper, we focus on the case study of inclined sporadic E (E_s) layers in the high-latitude ionosphere based on available CHAMP RO data. Assuming that the internal gravity waves (IGWs) with the phase-fronts parallel to the ionization layer surfaces are responsible for the tilt angles of sporadic plasma layers, we have developed a new technique for determining the parameters of IGWs linked with the inclined E_s structures. A small-scale internal wave may be modulating initially horizontal E_s layer in height and causing a direction of the plasma density gradient to be rotated and aligned with that of the wave propagation vector k. The results of determination of the intrinsic wave frequency and period, vertical and horizontal wavelengths, intrinsic vertical and horizontal phase speeds, and other characteristics of IGWs under study are presented and discussed.     

Study of GNSS-measured ionospheric total electron content variations generated by powerful HF-heating

The purpose of this work is to report the experimental evidences for the influence of perturbations in the electron density in the dayside mid-latitude ionosphere, that are caused by high-frequency heating of the F2 layer, on the GNSS signals. The experiments were carried out at the Sura heater (Radio Physical Research Institute, N. Novgorod). During the sessions of ionospheric heating with different time modulations of the radiated power the rays linking the navigational satellites with the ground receiver intersected the heated region. Variations in the total electron content (TEC) were studied; these variations are proportional to the reduced phases of navigational signals. It is shown that with the square-wave modulation of the radiated power (with periods of 1, 6, 10 and 15 min), perturbations with periods of the main modulation of heating and its harmonics appear in the spectrum of TEC variations. Examples are presented of identification of the heating-induced variations in TEC, including determination of the amplitudes and time characteristics of these variations.     

Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes and Global Electric Circuit

The electromagnetic coupling between the seismically activated area and the ionosphere is considered within the framework of the Global Electric Circuit (GEC) conception. First we consider the anomalous variations in the ionosphere associated with the earthquake preparation process, their temporal and spatial characteristics using the results from recent publications. Then the GEC conception is presented shortly with main accent put on ionization processes which play key role in the complex chain of physical and chemical interactions changing the electric properties of the planetary boundary layer of atmosphere. We treat this part of troposphere as an open complex system with dissipation where so called “blow up” processes are developed leading to sharp and fast changes of atmospheric parameters including the electric properties of the boundary layer. The new concept named Spatial Scintillation Index is introduced in the last part of the paper. In general, this paper may be considered as a short review of the recent achievements in understanding of the seismo-ionospheric coupling.     

Ionospheric foF2 variations prior to strong earthquakes in Taiwan area

Many studies of the seismo-ionospheric coupling effects have been reported. On 17 July 1998(M=6.2), 20 September 1999 (M=7.3) and 22 October 1999 (M=6.4) three large earthquakes respectively struck Rei-Li, Chi-Chi and Chia-Yi in central Taiwan. The three earthquakes severely damaged structures, heavily changed landforms and disturbed geophysical environments. This paper examines variations of the ionospheric penetration frequency, foF2, observed by Chung-Li ionosonde station (25.0° N, 121.1° E) several days before the three earthquakes. The mean- and median-based statistical techniques are introduced to investigate the ionospheric electron density prior to the three earthquakes. Results show that the foF2 decrease significantly before the three earthquakes.     

青海省柴达木盆地大气电场随高度的变化特征

大气电场强度是大气电学的重要参数.大气电场的准确测量及其时空特性对研究空间天气活动、气象活动以及大型地质活动具有重要意义.2019年8月26日和28日,中国科学院鸿鹄专项团队在青海省海西蒙古自治州大柴旦镇地区放飞搭载模式电场仪的探空气球,测量了不同高度的大气电场强度.利用互相关函数法和主成分分析法研究了此次气球实验得到的电场数据.结果表明,尽管通常情况下决定大气垂直电场大小的主要因素是高度,但是该地区风场对大气电场强度的影响也比较显著.晴天大气条件下,有无薄云的存在对大气电场测量存在一定影响,有云条件下,风速会通过影响云的形成间接影响到大气电场.此外,柴达木盆地存在一个易受下垫面影响的大气电场边界层,分析表明这个边界层厚度在3km以上.对边界层大气电场变化以及晴天无云时3600m以上的大气电场分布进行了分析和拟合.      

Ionospheric perturbations due to earthquakes as determined from VLF and GPS-TEC data analysis at Agra,India

Employing SoftPAL receiver, amplitude variations of VLF transmitter signals NWC (19.8?kHz) and NPM (21.4?kHz) are analyzed at Agra station in India (Geograph. lat. 27.2°N, long. 78°E) ±15?days from five major earthquakes of magnitude M?=?6.9–8.5 occurred in Indian subcontinent during the years 2011–2013. We apply nighttime fluctuation (NF) method and show that in almost all cases the trend decreases and dispersion and NF increase on the same days corresponding to each earthquake about 11–15?days prior to the main shock. Assuming that the ionospheric perturbations are caused by atmospheric gravity waves (AGW), we also calculate AGW modulation index for each case and find its values increased on the days amplitude fluctuations take place. Its value is decreased in one case only where the perturbations may be attributed to penetration of seismogenic electric field.In order to support the above results we also present GPS-TEC data analyzed by us corresponding to three of the above earthquakes. We study the TEC anomalies (unusual enhancements) and find that in one case the precursory period is almost the same as that found in NF method.     

Multi precursors analysis associated with the powerful Ecuador (MW = 7.8) earthquake of 16 April 2016 using Swarm satellites data in conjunction with other multi-platform satellite and ground data

After DEMETER satellite mission (2004–2010), the launch of the Swarm satellites (Alpha (A), Bravo (B) and Charlie (C)) has created a new opportunity in the study of earthquake ionospheric precursors. Nowadays, there is no doubt that multi precursors analysis is a necessary phase to better understand the LAIC (Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling) mechanism before large earthquakes. In this study, using absolute scalar magnetometer, vector field magnetometer and electric field instrument on board Swarm satellites, GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements, MODIS-Aqua satellite and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) data, the variations of the electron density and temperature, magnetic field, TEC (Total Electron Content), LST (Land Surface Temperature), AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) and SKT (SKin Temperature) have been surveyed to find the potential seismic anomalies around the strong Ecuador (M_w = 7.8) earthquake of 16 April 2016. The four solar and geomagnetic indices: F10.7, D_st, K_p and a_p were investigated to distinguish whether the preliminary detected anomalies might be associated with the solar-geomagnetic activities instead of the seismo-ionospheric anomalies. The Swarm satellites (A, B and C) data analysis indicate the anomalies in time series of electron density variations on 7, 11 and 12 days before the event; the unusual variations in time series of electron temperature on 8 days preceding the earthquake; the analysis of the magnetic field scalar and vectors data show the considerable anomalies 52, 48, 23, 16, 11, 9 and 7 days before the main shock. A striking anomaly is detected in TEC variations on 1 day before earthquake at 9:00 UTC. The analysis of MODIS-Aqua night-time images shows that LST increase unusually on 11 days prior to main shock. In addition, the AOD variations obtained from MODIS measurements reach the maximum value on 10 days before the earthquake. The SKT around epicentral region presents anomalous higher value about 40 days before the earthquake. It should be noted that the different lead times of the observed anomalies could be acknowledged based on a reasonable LAIC earthquake mechanism. Our results emphasize that the Swarm satellites measurements play an undeniable role in progress the studies of the ionospheric precursors.     

Investigation of GPS-TEC measurements using ANN method indicating seismo-ionospheric anomalies around the time of the Chile (Mw = 8.2) earthquake of 01 April 2014

In 94 km NW of Iquique in Chile (19.610°S, 70.776°W) a powerful earthquake of M_w = 8.2 took place at 23:46:47 UTC (20:46:47 LT) on April 01, 2014. Using GPS-TEC (Total Electron Content) measurements, potential unusual variations around the time and location of the Chile earthquake have been detected based on the median and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods. The indices D_st, K_p, A_p and F10.7 were used to distinguish pre-earthquake anomalies from the other anomalies related to the solar-geomagnetic activities. Using the median method, striking anomalies in time series of TEC data are observed 4 days before the earthquake at 14:00 and 16:00 UTC. The ANN method detected a number of anomalies, 4 (02:00 and 16:00 UTC) and 13 (24:00 UTC) days preceding the earthquake. The results indicate that the ANN method due to its capability of non linear learning is quite promising and deserves serious attention as a robust predictor tool for seismo-ionospheric anomalies detection.