Change in refractivity of the atmosphere and large variation in TEC associated with some earthquakes,observed from GPS receiver

The present study reports the analysis of GPS based TEC for our station Surat (21.16°N, 72.78°E) located at the northern crest of equatorial anomaly region in India at times close to some earthquake events (M ? 5) during the year 2009 in India and its neighbouring regions. The TEC data used in the study are obtained from GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitoring (GISTM) system. The TEC data has been analysed corresponding to 11 earthquakes in low solar activity period and quiet geomagnetic condition. We found that, out of 11 cases of earthquakes (M > 5) there were seven cases in which enhancement in TEC occurred on earthquake day and in other four cases there was depletion in TEC on earthquake day. The variation in refractivity prior to earthquake was significant for the cases in which the epicentre lied within a distance of 600 km from the receiving station. By looking into the features on temporal enhancement and depletion of TEC a prediction was made 3–2 days prior to an earthquake (on 28 October 2009 in Bhuj – India). The paper includes a brief discussion on the method of potentially identifying an impending earthquake from ionospheric data.     

A nonlinear background removal method for seismo-ionospheric anomaly analysis under a complex solar activity scenario: A case study of the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake

A precise determination of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomaly variations that are likely associated with large earthquakes as observed by global positioning system (GPS) requires the elimination of the ionospheric effect from irregular solar electromagnetic radiation. In particular, revealing the seismo-ionospheric anomalies when earthquakes occurred during periods of high solar activity is of utmost importance. To overcome this constraint, a multiresolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform applicable to global ionosphere map (GIM) TEC data was used to remove the nonlinear effect from solar radiation for the earthquake that struck Tohoku, Japan, on 11 March, 2011. As a result, it was found that the extracted TEC have a good correlation with the measured solar extreme ultraviolet flux in 26–34 nm (EUV_26–34) and the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F_10.7). After removing the influence of solar radiation origin in GIM TEC, the analysis results show that the TEC around the forthcoming epicenter and its conjugate were significantly enhanced in the afternoon period of 8 March 2011, 3 days before the earthquake. The spatial distributions of the TEC anomalous and extreme enhancements indicate that the earthquake preparation process had brought with a TEC anomaly area of size approximately 1650 and 5700 km in the latitudinal and longitudinal directions, respectively.     

Surface latent heat flux anomalies quasi-synchronous with ionospheric disturbances before the 2007 Pu’er earthquake in China

One of various mechanisms of pre-earthquake lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling as possible explanation of the seismo-ionospheric effects is connected with the release of latent heat. Abnormal variations of ionospheric electromagnetic parameters possibly related to the 2007 Ms 6.4 Pu’er earthquake in China were reported. This paper attempts to examine whether there were abnormal changes of surface latent heat flux (SLHF) linked with this pre-earthquake ionospheric disturbances. The spatio-temporal statistical analyzes of multi-years SLHF data from USA NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project reveal that local SLHF enhancements appeared 11, 10 and 7 days before the Pu’er earthquake, respectively. As contrasted to the formerly reported local ionospheric Ne enhancement 9 days before the shock observed by DEMETER satellite, it is discovered that the SLHF and Ne anomalies are quasi-synchronous and have good spatial correspondence with the epicentre and the local active faults. This is valuable for understanding the seismogenic coupling processes and for recognizing earthquake anomaly with multiple parameters from integrated Earth observation system.     

Estimation of GPS instrumental biases from small scale network

With 4 GPS receivers located in the equatorial anomaly region in southeast China, this paper proposes a grid-based algorithm to determine the GPS satellites and receivers biases, and at the same time to derive the total electron content (TEC) with time resolution of 15 min and spatial resolution of 1° by 3.5° in latitude and longitude. By assuming that the TEC is identical at any point within a given grid block and the biases do not vary within a day, the algorithm arranges unknown biases and TECs with slant path TEC from the 4 receivers’ observations into a set of equations. Then the instrumental biases and the TECs are determined by using the least squares fitting technique. The performance of the method is examined by applying it to the GPS receiver chain observations selected from 16 geomagnetically quiet days in four seasons of 2006. It is found that the fitting agrees with the data very well, with goodness of fit ranging from 0.452 TECU to 1.914 TECU. Having a mean of 0.9 ns, the standard deviations for most of the GPS satellite biases are less than 1.0 ns for the 16 days. The GPS receiver biases are more stable than that of the GPS satellites. The standard deviation in the 4 receiver bias is from 0.370 ns to 0.855 ns, with a mean of 0.5 ns. Moreover, the instrumental biases are highly correlated with those derived from CODE and JPL with independent methods. The typical precision of the derived TEC is 5 TECU by a conservative estimation. These results indicate that the proposed algorithm is valid and qualified for small scale GPS network.     

Ionospheric anomalies of local earthquakes detected by GPS TEC measurements using data from Tashkent and Kitab stations

This paper reports the ionospheric anomalies observed during strong local earthquakes (M?5.0) which occurred mostly in and around Uzbekistan in seismically active zones, during years 2006 to 2009 within approximately 1000 km distance from the observing GPS stations located in Tashkent and Kitab, Uzbekistan. The solar and geomagnetic conditions were quiet during occurrence of the selected strong earthquakes. We produce Total Electron Content (TEC) time series over both sites and apply them to detect anomalous TEC signals preceding or accompanying the local earthquakes. The results show anomalous increase or decrease of TEC before or during the earthquakes. In general the anomalies occurred 1–7 days before the earthquakes as ionospheric electromagnetic precursors. To identify the anomalous values of TEC we calculated differential TEC (dTEC). dTEC is obtained by subtracting monthly averaged diurnal vTEC from the values of observed vTEC at each epoch. This procedure removes normal diurnal variations of vTEC. The present results are in good agreement with the previous observations on ionospheric earthquake precursors reported by various researchers.     

Estimation and analysis of GPS receiver differential code biases using KGN in Korean Peninsula

The total electron content (TEC) estimation by the Global Positioning System (GPS) can be seriously affected by the differential code biases (DCB), referred to as inter-frequency biases (IFB), of the satellite and receiver so that an accuracy of GPS–TEC value is dependent on the error of DCBs estimation. In this paper, we proposed the singular value decomposition (SVD) method to estimate the DCB of GPS satellites and receivers using the Korean GPS network (KGN) in South Korea. The receiver DCBs of about 49 GPS reference stations in KGN were determined for the accurate estimation of the regional ionospheric TEC. They obtained from the daily solution have large biases ranging from +5 to +27 ns for geomagnetic quiet days. The receiver DCB of SUWN reference station was compared with the estimates of IGS and JPL global ionosphere map (GIM). The results have shown comparatively good agreement at the level within 0.2 ns. After correction of receiver DCBs and knowing the satellite DCBs, the comparison between the behavior of the estimated TEC and that of GIMs was performed for consecutive three days. We showed that there is a good agreement between KASI model and GIMs.     

Ionospheric anomalies observed over South Korea preceding the Great Tohoku earthquake of 2011

We investigated the ionospheric anomalies observed before the Tohoku earthquake, which occurred near the northeast coast of Honshu, Japan on 11 March, 2011. Based on data from a ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) network on the Korean Peninsula, ionospheric anomalies were detected in the total electron content (TEC) during the daytime a few days before earthquake. Ionospheric TEC anomalies appeared on 5, 8 and 11 March. In particular, the ionospheric disturbances on 8 March evidenced a remarkable increase in TEC. The GPS TEC variation associated with the Tohoku earthquake was an increase of approximately 20 total electron content units (TECU), observed simultaneously in local and global TEC measurements. To investigate these pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies, space weather conditions such as the solar activity index (F10.7) and geomagnetic activity indices (the Kp and Dst indices) were examined. We also created two-dimensional TEC maps to visual the spatial variations in the ionospheric anomalies preceding the earthquake.     

GPS derived TEC and foF2 variability at an equatorial station and the performance of IRI-model

The ionosphere induces a time delay in transionospheric radio signals such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) signal. The Total Electron Content (TEC) is a key parameter in the mitigation of ionospheric effects on transionospheric signals. The delay in GPS signal induced by the ionosphere is proportional to TEC along the path from the GPS satellite to a receiver. The diurnal monthly and seasonal variations of ionospheric electron content were studied during the year 2010, a year of extreme solar minimum (F10.7 = 81 solar flux unit), with data from the GPS receiver and the Digisonde Portable Sounder (DPS) collocated at Ilorin (Geog. Lat. 8.50°N, Long. 4.50°E, dip −7.9°). The diurnal monthly variation shows steady increases in TEC and F2-layer critical frequency (foF2) from pre-dawn minimum to afternoon maximum and then decreases after sunset. TEC show significant seasonal variation during the daytime between 0900 and 1900 UT (LT = UT + 1 h) with a maximum during the March equinox (about 35 TECU) and minimum during the June solstice (about 24 TECU). The GPS-TEC and foF2 values reveal a weak seasonal anomaly and equinoctial asymmetry during the daytime. The variations observed find their explanations in the amount of solar radiation and neutral gas composition. The measured TEC and foF2 values were compared with last two versions of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007 and IRI-2012) model predictions using the NeQuick and CCIR (International Radio Consultative Committee) options respectively in the model. In general, the two models give foF2 close to the experimental values, whereas significant discrepancies are found in the predictions of TEC from the models especially during the daytime. The error in height dependent thickness parameter, daytime underestimation of equatorial drift and contributions of electrons from altitudes above 2000 km have been suggested as the possible causes.     

GPS scintillation and TEC depletion near the northern crest of equatorial anomaly over South China

This study presents a statistical analysis of GPS L-band scintillation with data observed from July 2008 to March 2012 at the northern crest of equatorial anomaly stations in Guangzhou and Shenzhen of South China. The variations of the scintillation with local time, season, solar activity and duration of scintillation patches were investigated. The relationship between the scintillation and TEC depletion was also reported. Our results revealed that GPS scintillation occurred from 19:30 LT (pre-midnight) to 03:00 LT (post-midnight). During quiet solar activity years, the scintillation was only observed in pre-midnight hours of equinox months and patches durations were mostly less than 60 min. During high solar activity years, more scintillation occurred in the pre-midnight hours of equinox and winter months; and GPS scintillation started to occur in the post-midnight hours of summer and winter. The duration of scintillation patches extended to 180 min in high solar activity years. Solar activity had a larger effect to strong scintillations (S₄ > 0.6) than to weak scintillations (0.6 ? S₄ > 0.2). Strong scintillations were accompanied by TEC depletion especially in equinox months. We also discussed the relationship between TEC depletion and plasma bubble.     

Earthquake induced dynamics at the ionosphere in presence of magnetic storm

The modifications induced in the dynamics of the ionosphere by the major Japan earthquake (EQ) of March 11, 2011 (epicenter at 38.322°N, 142.369°E, M = 8.9) in presence of a magnetic storm are examined by mapping latitudinal variations of F-layer ionization density (NmF2) from 22 stations covering the epicenter zone. The changes forced into the Total Electron Content (TEC) by the major EQ in the magnetic storm ambiance are also examined from the GPS data collected at Guwahati (26° 10′ N, 91° 45’ E), situated in the major fault system of East Asia. The contributions of pre-seismic electric field as well as of magnetic storm time electric field in the observed density variations are brought into the ambit of discussion. The influence of lower atmosphere in shaping TEC features during the study case is highlighted. The effects of solar activity on density variations during such complex ambiances are also addressed.     

Thermal and TEC anomalies detection using an intelligent hybrid system around the time of the Saravan,Iran, (Mw = 7.7) earthquake of 16 April 2013

A powerful earthquake of M_w = 7.7 struck the Saravan region (28.107° N, 62.053° E) in Iran on 16 April 2013. Up to now nomination of an automated anomaly detection method in a non linear time series of earthquake precursor has been an attractive and challenging task. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) have revealed strong potentials in accurate time series prediction. This paper presents the first study of an integration of ANN and PSO method in the research of earthquake precursors to detect the unusual variations of the thermal and total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the strong earthquake of Saravan. In this study, to overcome the stagnation in local minimum during the ANN training, PSO as an optimization method is used instead of traditional algorithms for training the ANN method. The proposed hybrid method detected a considerable number of anomalies 4 and 8 days preceding the earthquake. Since, in this case study, ionospheric TEC anomalies induced by seismic activity is confused with background fluctuations due to solar activity, a multi-resolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform has been applied on TEC signal variations. In view of the fact that the accordance in the final results deduced from some robust methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the method, therefore the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the ANN + PSO method were compared to the results with regard to the observed anomalies by implementing the mean, median, Wavelet, Kalman filter, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) methods. The results indicate that the ANN + PSO method is quite promising and deserves serious attention as a new tool for thermal and TEC seismo anomalies detection.     

Towards a GPS-based TEC prediction model for Southern Africa with feed forward networks

In this paper, first results from a national Global Positioning System (GPS) based total electron content (TEC) prediction model over South Africa are presented. Data for 10 GPS receiver stations distributed through out the country were used to train a feed forward neural network (NN) over an interval of at most five years. In the NN training, validating and testing processes, five factors which are well known to influence TEC variability namely diurnal variation, seasonal variation, magnetic activity, solar activity and the geographic position of the GPS receivers were included in the NN model. The database consisted of 1-min data and therefore the NN model developed can be used to forecast TEC values 1 min in advance. Results from the NN national model (NM) were compared with hourly TEC values generated by the earlier developed NN single station models (SSMs) at Sutherland (32.38°S, 20.81°E) and Springbok (29.67°S, 17.88°E), to predict TEC variations over the Cape Town (33.95°S, 18.47°E) and Upington (28.41°S, 21.26°E) stations, respectively, during equinoxes and solstices. This revealed that, on average, the NM led to an improvement in TEC prediction accuracy compared to the SSMs for the considered testing periods.     

An Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System for the detection of thermal and TEC anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan,Iran, (Mw = 6.4) earthquake of 11 August 2012

Anomaly detection is extremely important for forecasting the date, location and magnitude of an impending earthquake. In this paper, an Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) has been proposed to detect the thermal and Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan, Iran, (M_w = 6.4) earthquake jolted in 11 August 2012 NW Iran. ANFIS is the famous hybrid neuro-fuzzy network for modeling the non-linear complex systems. In this study, also the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed anomalies by applying the classical and intelligent methods including Interquartile, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) methods. The duration of the dataset which is comprised from Aqua-MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) night-time snapshot images and also Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM), is 62 days. It can be shown that, if the difference between the predicted value using the ANFIS method and the observed value, exceeds the pre-defined threshold value, then the observed precursor value in the absence of non seismic effective parameters could be regarded as precursory anomaly. For two precursors of LST and TEC, the ANFIS method shows very good agreement with the other implemented classical and intelligent methods and this indicates that ANFIS is capable of detecting earthquake anomalies. The applied methods detected anomalous occurrences 1 and 2 days before the earthquake. This paper indicates that the detection of the thermal and TEC anomalies derive their credibility from the overall efficiencies and potentialities of the five integrated methods.     

Ionospheric scintillations at Guilin detected by GPS ground-based and radio occultation observations

The occurrence of ionospheric scintillations with S4 ? 0.2 was studied using GPS measurements at Guilin, China (25.29°N, 110.33°E; geomagnetic: 15.04°N, 181.98°E), a station located near the northern crest of the equatorial anomaly. The results are presented for data collected from January 2009 to March 2010. The results show that nighttime amplitude scintillations only took place in February and March of the considered years, while daytime amplitude scintillations occurred in August and December of 2009. Nighttime amplitude scintillations, observed in the south of Guilin, always occurred with phase scintillations, TEC (Total Electron Content) depletions, and ROT (Rate Of change of TEC) fluctuations. However, TEC depletions and ROT fluctuations were weak during daytime amplitude scintillations, and daytime amplitude scintillations always took place simultaneously for most of the GPS satellites which appeared over Guilin in different azimuth directions. Ground-based GPS scintillation/TEC observations recorded at Guilin and signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) measurements obtained from GPS-COSMIC radio occultation indicate that nighttime and daytime scintillations are very likely caused by ionospheric F region irregularities and sporadic E, respectively. Moreover, strong daytime amplitude scintillations may be associated with the plasma density enhancements in ionospheric E region caused by the Perseid and Geminid meteor shower activities.     

Analysis of electron content variations over Japan during solar minimum: Observations and modeling

Comparative analysis of GPS TEC data and FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC radio occultation measurements was carried out for Japan region during period of the extremely prolonged solar minimum of cycle 23/24. COSMIC data for different seasons corresponded to equinox and solstices of the years 2007–2009 were analyzed. All selected electron density profiles were integrated up to the height of 700 km (altitude of COSMIC satellites), the monthly median estimates of Ionospheric Electron Content (IEC) were retrieved with use of spherical harmonics expansion. Monthly medians of TEC values were calculated from diurnal variations of GPS TEC estimates during considered month. Joint analysis of GPS TEC and COSMIC data allows us to extract and estimate electron content corresponded to the ionosphere (its bottom and topside parts) and the plasmasphere (h > 700 km) for different seasons of 2007–2009. Percentage contribution of ECpl to GPS TEC indicates the clear dependence from the time and varies from a minimum of about 25–50% during day-time to the value of 50–75% at night-time. Contribution of both bottom-side and topside IEC has minimal values during winter season in compare with summer season (for both day- and night-time). On average bottom-side IEC contributes about 5–10% of GPS TEC during night and about 20–27% during day-time. Topside IEC contributes about 15–20% of GPS TEC during night and about 35–40% during day-time. The obtained results were compared with TEC, IEC and ECpl estimates retrieved by Standard Plasmasphere–Ionosphere Model that has the plasmasphere extension up to 20,000 km (GPS orbit).     

Variations of ionospheric total electron content before three strong earthquakes in the Qinghai-Tibet region

We investigate the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomalies occurred in the Qinghai-Tibet region before three large earthquakes (M > 7.0). The temporal and spatial TEC variations were used to detect the ionospheric possible precursors of these earthquakes. We identified two TEC enhancements in the afternoon local time 9 days and 2–3 days before each earthquake, between which a TEC decrement occurred 3–6 days before earthquakes. These anomalies happened in the area of about 30° in latitude and the maximum is localized equatorward from the epicenters. These TEC anomalies can be found in all three earthquakes regardless the geomagnetic conditions. The features of these anomalies have something in common and may have differences from those caused by geomagnetic storms. Our results suggest that these ionospheric TEC perturbations may be precursors of the large earthquakes.     

Precursors of Equatorial Spread F observing GPS TEC data from different GAGAN stations in India

Occurrence of Spread F is more or less a daily phenomenon in the equatorial and low latitudinal stations during high to moderate sunspot number years. In this paper efforts have been made to identify possible precursors of Equatorial Spread F (ESF) using the Total Electron Content (TEC) data of seven GAGAN (GPS Aided Geo Augmented Navigation) stations in India during the two equinoxes of moderate sunspot number year 2004. Large Scale Periodic Structures found prior to TEC bite out can be taken as possible precursors to ESF. A threshold value of the peak to peak amplitude of this wave structure is chosen 2.6 TEC unit above which there is a possibility of ESF or TEC bite out with S4 > 0.26.     

Night-time total electron content enhancements at equatorial anomaly region in China

This paper presents small scale (duration ?1 h, ΔTEC ? 1TECU) night-time total electron content (TEC) enhancements observed at the equatorial anomaly region in China, for the first time. The data is from a GPS receiver chain established in 2005 by Institute of Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences and a GPS receiver of International GPS Service (IGS), located between Fuzhou (26.1°N, 119.3°E) and Nanning (22.8°N, 108.3°E). Two other GPS observations of IGS taken at higher latitude were also used to investigate the localization of such phenomenon. The characteristics of the night-time TEC enhancement are examined with two case studies. The TEC increases about 1–3TECU, intermittently. While the night-time TEC enhancement mainly occurs at the equatorial anomaly region, it can be observed at middle latitude as well. The spatial size of the enhancement region is less than 5° in longitude. The primary statistical study shows that the TEC enhancement is more often observed in spring and autumn, but rarely in summer. It has no dependence on geomagnetic activity. The enhancement can occur both before and after midnight.     

A morphological study of GPS-TEC data at Agra and their comparison with the IRI model

The temporal and seasonal variations of Total Electron Content (TEC) are studied at Agra (Geographic Lat. 27.17°N, Long. 78.89°E, Dip: 41.4°), India, which is in the equatorial anomaly region, for a period of 12 months from 01 January to 31 December, 2007 using a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver. The mean TEC values show a minimum at 0500 h LT (LT = UT + 5.5 h) and a peak value at about 1400 h LT. The lowest TEC values are observed in winter whereas largest values are observed in equinox and summer. Anomalous variations are found during the period of magnetic disturbances. These results are compared with the TEC derived from IRI-2007 using three different options of topside electron density, NeQuick, IRI01-corr, and IRI-2001. A good agreement is found between the TEC obtained at Agra and those derived from IRI models.     

Short term variations of total electron content (TEC) fitting to a regional GPS network over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)

The ionosphere is a dispersive medium for radio waves with the refractive index which is a function of frequency and total electron content (TEC). TEC has a strong diurnal variation in addition to monthly, seasonal and solar cycle variations and small and large scale irregularities. Dual frequency GPS observations can be utilized to obtain TEC and investigate its spatial and temporal variations. We here studied short term TEC variations over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). A regional GPS network is formed consisting of 16 sites in and around KSA. GPS observations, acquired between 1st and 11th February 2009, were processed on a daily basis by using the Bernese v5.0 software and IGS final products. The geometry-free zero difference smoothed code observables were used to obtain two hour interval snapshots of TEC and their RMS errors at 0.5 × 0.5 degree grid nodes and regional ionosphere models in a spherical harmonics expansion to degree and order six. The equatorial ionized anomaly (EIA) is recovered in the south of 20°N from 08:00 to 12:00 UT. We found that day-by-day TEC variation is more stable than the night time variation.