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Vertical total electron content (VTEC) observed at Mbarara (geographic co-ordinates: 0.60°S, 30.74°E; geomagnetic coordinates: 10.22°S, 102.36°E), Uganda, for the period 2001–2009 have been used to study the diurnal, seasonal and solar activity variations. The daily values of the 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7) and sunspot number (R) were used to represent Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Variability (EUV). VTEC is generally higher during high solar activity period for all the seasons and increases from 0600 h LT and reaches its maximum value within 1400 h–1500 h LT. All analysed linear and quadratic fits demonstrate positive VTEC-F10.7 and positive VTEC-R correlation, with all fits at 0000 h and 1400 h LT being significant with a confidence level of 95% when both linear and quadratic models are used. All the fits at 0600 h LT are insignificant with a confidence level of 95%. Generally, over Mbarara, quadratic fit shows that VTEC saturates during all seasons for F10.7 more than 200 units and R more than 150 units. The result of this study can be used to improve the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) prediction of TEC around the equatorial region of the African sector.  相似文献   

3.
本文介绍了太阳L260°活动概况,并计算了黑子群的位置漂移及对应的射电缓变源.北京天文台2.84GHz射电望远镜在该活动区观测到8次特大的射电爆发(流量超过1000s.f.u.),其中4次(1991年5月16日,6月9日,6月11日,8月25日)射电爆发时变曲线十分相似而且这些微波爆发都与Ⅱ型Ⅲ型Ⅳ型米波爆发有良好的对应.可能说明该活动区所对应的日冕在长时间内存在一种磁场位形结构,这种磁场位形结构容易产生日冕物质抛射.  相似文献   

4.
Some periods in the sunspot number reconstruction composed by Hoyt and Schatten [Hoyt, D.V., Schatten, K.H. Group Sunspot Numbers: a new solar activity reconstruction. Sol. Phys. 179, 189–219, 1998. Reprinted with figures in Sol. Phys. 181, 491–512, 1998], are based on very few records. For example, there are only a few solar observations during the years 1736–1739. In this paper we intend to improve the reliability of the sunspot numbers reconstruction developed by Hoyt and Schatten for this 4-years period based on information about solar activity published in three journals of that epoch: “Philosophical Transactions”, “Histoire de l’Académie Royale des Sciences”, and “Nova Acta Eruditorum”. We were able to identify 42 papers with solar observations, including 30 with relevant information on sunspots. Based upon this new outlook, a reconstruction of the monthly solar activity for these years is proposed.  相似文献   

5.
We have studied the relationship between three different versions of the sunspot number (Group, International and American Sunspot Number) and the number of active days (i.e., the number of days with spots on the solar disk). We have detected an approximately linear relationship for low solar activity conditions. However, this relationship for the International Sunspot Number is very different to the ones obtained with the other versions of the sunspot number. The discordant values correspond to older observations.  相似文献   

6.
    
The common methodologies used to predict the smooth sunspot number (SSN) at peak (Rmax) and the rise time (Tr) for a cycle are noted. The estimates based on geomagnetic precursors give the best prediction of Rmax for five SSN cycles (20–24). In particular, an empirical technique invoking three-cycle quasi-periodicity (TCQP) in Ap index has made accurate predictions of Rmax and Tr for two consecutive SSN cycles (23 and 24). The dynamo theories are unable to account for TCQP. If it endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling. The current status of the ascending phase of cycle 24 is described and the delayed reversal of the solar polar field reversal in the southern hemisphere in September 2013 is noted.  相似文献   

7.
AR5395和AR5629X射线事件的太阳射电辐射特征吴洪敖,孙九祯(中同科学院紫金山天文台,南京210008)关键词太阳耀斑,X射线事件,射电事件一、概况本文选用的典型事件是1989年3月的AR5395和8月的AR5629的射电缓变和爆发分量,及其...  相似文献   

8.
1996-2002年太阳耀斑的统计分析   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1  
分析了1996—2002年南北半球的太阳黑子相对数和南北半球太阳X射线耀斑级别(简称Imp)≥M1.0的太阳X射线耀斑的特征和不对称性.分析结果表明,南北半球的太阳耀斑活动的程度交替上升,在2001年7月以前北半球的太阳耀斑活动强于南半球,2001年7月开始耀斑活动逐渐以南半球为主.本文还逐月分析了1996—2001年南北半球的耀斑指数.2000年7月为第23周太阳指数最大的一个月、与第23周太阳黑子相对数最大月均值吻合.  相似文献   

9.
通过分析\"云南天文台4波段太阳射电快速同步观测系统\"1990-01-1994-01取得的103个射电爆发,发现其中29个存在不同类型的快速精细结构(FFS).尤其是发现了几个少见的亚类FFS现象.本文仅介绍两个亚类型:窄带变周期脉动和宽带慢漂移长周期脉动.这些现象表明太阳射电FFS的多样性,它们发生在射电爆发的不同阶段(耀斑不同相),从而说明在耀斑演化中日冕非热电子的加速或注入可能贯穿于整个耀斑发展过程.由于耀斑后相FFS的发生,可验证耀斑后相存在磁重联和似环结构(耀斑后环)的重新形成.由于不同的亚类FFS反映日冕中存奇特别的环境条件,从而推测日冕中可能存在更复杂的多重类型的磁结构.  相似文献   

10.
本文对1991年5月16日事件的资料进行了数据处理,不仅证明毫秒级资料可以通过平均平滑还原为秒级,还表明经1990年修改后的2.84GHz接收机输出的不同时间常数资料内部是自洽的。同时对太阳毫秒级资料作带通滤波将不同时间尺度的快速起伏分离出来。虽然在1991年5月16日的太阳资料中仅能发现亚秒级的起伏,但这种新的资料处理办法对今后的太阳射电快速起伏资料研究与证认是有帮助的。  相似文献   

11.

Purpose

This epidemiologic study tested an hypothesized association between the year of birth of persons with major mental illnesses and solar activity over the past century.

Methods

We collected data on diagnoses and birthdates of psychiatric patients born between 1926 and 1975 (N = 1954) in south Italy for comparison to yearly solar activity as registered by the International Observatories.

Results

We found a strong inverse correlation between high solar activity (HSA) and incidence of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder in a 20-year period whereas the incidence of non-affective/non-psychotic disorders was moderately associated with HSA in the same period.

Conclusions

Interpretation of the observed correlations between HSA during years of birth and the incidence of mental illnesses remains unclear, but the findings encourage further study.  相似文献   

12.
    
Emergence of complex magnetic flux in the solar active regions lead to several observational effects such as a change in sunspot area and flux embalance in photospheric magnetograms. The flux emergence also results in twisted magnetic field lines that add to free energy content. The magnetic field configuration of these active regions relax to near potential-field configuration after energy release through solar flares and coronal mass ejections. In this paper, we study the relation of flare productivity of active regions with their evolution of magnetic flux emergence, flux imbalance and free energy content. We use the sunspot area and number for flux emergence study as they contain most of the concentrated magnetic flux in the active region. The magnetic flux imbalance and the free energy are estimated using the HMI/SDO magnetograms and Virial theorem method. We find that the active regions that undergo large changes in sunspot area are most flare productive. The active regions become flary when the free energy content exceeds 50% of the total energy. Although, the flary active regions show magnetic flux imbalance, it is hard to predict flare activity based on this parameter alone.  相似文献   

13.
    
The ionospheric effects induced by the September 2017 storm have been exceptional compared to other events in the solar cycle 24. This paper gathers results of the ionospheric observations at the European middle latitude station Pruhonice. It consists of evaluation of ionospheric vertical and oblique sounding, Digisonde drift measurement, and data obtained from the Continuous Doppler Sounding System. We observed strong ionospheric response with an unusual stratification of ionospheric layers, Large Scale Traveling ionospheric disturbances, changes in electron density, and increase and oscillations in plasma drift velocity.  相似文献   

14.
The South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) has been monitored for 19 years using the Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) series of instruments onboard the ERS-1, ERS-2 and ENVISAT ESA satellites. The time evolution of the night-time particle induced noise in the short wavelength infrared (SWIR, 1.6 μm) and visible (VIS, 0.55 μm) channels of the ATSR instrument series have been analysed. The monthly location and extension of the SAA are inferred by fitting a two-dimensional, elliptical Gaussian function to the coordinates of the night-time hot spots detected over the SAA region. The location of the centre of the SAA is found to drift westwards with an average drift rate of about 0.24 deg/year and northward with an average drift rate of about 0.12 deg/year. Irregularities are found where the drift speed is inverted and the SAA moves eastward and southward. Results indicate that, as expected, the retrieved values of SAA’s strength and extension are anti-correlated with the solar activity expressed by the solar flux at 10.7 cm (F10.7). Finally, the peak-to-peak amplitude of the seasonal variation of the SAA strength, estimated from monthly VIS data, is found to be 30% of the average value with the annual to semiannual amplitude ratio of 1.38.  相似文献   

15.
为研究太阳活动对电离层TEC变化的影响,从整体到局部分析了2000—2016年的太阳黑子数、太阳射电流量F10.7指数日均值与电离层TEC的关系,并重点分析了2017年9月6日太阳爆发X9.3级特大耀斑前后15天太阳活动与电离层TEC变化的相关性.结果表明:由2000—2016年的数据整体看来,太阳黑子数、太阳F10.7指数、TEC两两之间具有很强的整体相关性,但局部相关性强弱不均;此次耀斑爆发前后太阳黑子数、太阳F10.7指数和TEC具有很强的正相关特性,太阳活动对TEC的影响时延约为2天;太阳活动对全球电离层TEC的影响不同步,从高纬至低纬约有1天的延迟,且对低纬度的影响远大于中高纬度.太阳活动是影响电离层TEC变化的主要原因,但局部也可能存在其他重要影响因素.  相似文献   

16.
本文利用NIMBUS-7SAMS温度资料,分析研究了1979年至1982年期间发生的3.5级以上大耀斑事件对中层大气温度的影响。并对其物理过程进行了分析和讨论。主要结论是:在太阳大耀斑爆发前后的一两天内,在20°N-60°N地区的中间层大气上部,大气温度有明显降低,中间层下部则有明显增加。对平流层顶高度以下的大气温度没有明显影响。  相似文献   

17.
    
Solar cycle prediction is a key activity in space weather research. Several techniques have been employed in recent decades in order to try to forecast the next sunspot-cycle maxima and time. In this work, the Gaussian process, a machine-learning technique, is used to make a prediction for the solar cycle 25 based on the annual sunspot number 2.0 data from 1700 to 2018. A variation known as Warped Gaussian process is employed in order to deal with the non-negativity constraint and asymmetrical data distribution. Tests using holdout data yielded a root mean square error of 10.0 within 5 years and 25.0–35.0 within 10 years. Simulations using the predictive distribution were performed to account for the uncertainty in the prediction. Cycle 25 is expected to last from 2019 to 2029, with a peak sunspot number about 117 (110 by the median) occurring most likely in 2024. Thus our method predicts that solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than previous ones, implying a continuing trend of declining solar activity as observed in the past two cycles.  相似文献   

18.
The analysis of observations of very high frequency radio noise intensity at the middle latitude on a frequency f = 500 MHz from 14th till 26th of October, 2003 is presented. These data are compared with the solar radio bursts in the range of frequencies 1–14 MHz registered by RAD2 receiver of the WAVES device installed on board the WIND spacecraft.  相似文献   

19.
Dst是一个表征磁暴强度的空间天气指数. 通过统计1957-2008年 发生的中等磁暴(-100<Dst≤ -50nT)和强磁暴(Dst ≤ -100nT)在太阳活动周上升年、极大年、下降年和极小年的时间分布情 况, 分析其随季节变化的统计特性, 进而讨论了引起磁暴的原因. 结果表明, 对于同一太阳活动周, 极大年地磁暴发生次数远大于极小年地磁暴的发生次数, 这与太阳黑子数的变化趋势是一致的; 通常太阳活动周强磁暴出现双峰结构, 而第23周中等磁暴出现双峰结构, 强磁暴则出现三峰结构, 这可能与1999 年强 磁暴发生次数异常少, 使1998年凸显出来的现象有关; 磁暴主要发生在分季, 随着Dst指数的增加, 磁暴发生次数明显增加.  相似文献   

20.
The article presents the results of the observation of a strong magnetic storm and two X-ray flares during the summer solstice in 2015, and their impact on the HF signals characteristics in ionospheric oblique sounding. It was found that the negative phase of the magnetic storm led to a strong degradation of the ionospheric channel, ultimately causing a long blackout on paths adjacent to subauroral latitudes. On mid-latitude paths, the decrease in 1FMOF reached ~50% relative to the average values for the quiet ionosphere. It is shown that the propagation conditions via the sporadic Es layer during the magnetic storm on a subauroral path are substantially better than those for F-mode propagation via the upper ionosphere. The delay of the sharp decrease in 1FMOF during the main phase of the magnetic storm allowed us to determine the propagation velocity of the negative phase disturbances (~100 m/s) from subauroral to mid-latitude ionosphere along two paths: Lovozero – Yoshkar-Ola and Cyprus – Nizhny Novgorod. It is shown that both the LOF and the signal/noise ratio averaged over the frequency band corresponding to the propagation mode via the sporadic Es layer correlate well with the auroral AE index. Using an over-the-horizon chirp radar with a bistatic configuration on the Cyprus – Rostov-on-Don path, we located small-scale scattering irregularities responsible for abnormal signals in the region of the equatorial boundary of the auroral oval.  相似文献   

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