The transcension hypothesis: Sufficiently advanced civilizations invariably leave our universe,and implications for METI and SETI

The emerging science of evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) biology can aid us in thinking about our universe as both an evolutionary system, where most processes are unpredictable and creative, and a developmental system, where a special few processes are predictable and constrained to produce far-future-specific emergent order, just as we see in the common developmental processes in two stars of an identical population type, or in two genetically identical twins in biology. The transcension hypothesis proposes that a universal process of evolutionary development guides all sufficiently advanced civilizations into what may be called "inner space," a computationally optimal domain of increasingly dense, productive, miniaturized, and efficient scales of space, time, energy, and matter, and eventually, to a black-hole-like destination. Transcension as a developmental destiny might also contribute to the solution to the Fermi paradox, the question of why we have not seen evidence of or received beacons from intelligent civilizations. A few potential evolutionary, developmental, and information theoretic reasons, mechanisms, and models for constrained transcension of advanced intelligence are briefly considered. In particular, we introduce arguments that black holes may be a developmental destiny and standard attractor for all higher intelligence, as they appear to some to be ideal computing, learning, forward time travel, energy harvesting, civilization merger, natural selection, and universe replication devices. In the transcension hypothesis, simpler civilizations that succeed in resisting transcension by staying in outer (normal) space would be developmental failures, which are statistically very rare late in the life cycle of any biological developing system. If transcension is a developmental process, we may expect brief broadcasts or subtle forms of galactic engineering to occur in small portions of a few galaxies, the handiwork of young and immature civilizations, but constrained transcension should be by far the norm for all mature civilizations.The transcension hypothesis has significant and testable implications for our current and future METI and SETI agendas. If all universal intelligence eventually transcends to black-hole-like environments, after which some form of merger and selection occurs, and if two-way messaging (a send–receive cycle) is severely limited by the great distances between neighboring and rapidly transcending civilizations, then sending one-way METI or probes prior to transcension becomes the only real communication option. But one-way messaging or probes may provably reduce the evolutionary diversity in all civilizations receiving the message, as they would then arrive at their local transcensions in a much more homogenous fashion. If true, an ethical injunction against one-way messaging or probes might emerge in the morality and sustainability systems of all sufficiently advanced civilizations, an argument known as the Zoo hypothesis in Fermi paradox literature, if all higher intelligences are subject to an evolutionary attractor to maximize their local diversity, and a developmental attractor to merge and advance universal intelligence. In any such environment, the evolutionary value of sending any interstellar message or probe may simply not be worth the cost, if transcension is an inevitable, accelerative, and testable developmental process, one that eventually will be discovered and quantitatively described by future physics. Fortunately, transcension processes may be measurable today even without good physical theory, and radio and optical SETI may each provide empirical tests. If transcension is a universal developmental constraint, then without exception all early and low-power electromagnetic leakage signals (radar, radio, television), and later, optical evidence of the exoplanets and their atmospheres should reliably cease as each civilization enters its own technological singularities (emergence of postbiological intelligence and life forms) and recognizes that they are on an optimal and accelerating path to a black-hole-like environment. Furthermore, optical SETI may soon allow us to map an expanding area of the galactic habitable zone we may call the galactic transcension zone, an inner ring that contains older transcended civilizations, and a missing planets problem as we discover that planets with life signatures occur at a much lower frequencies in this inner ring than in the remainder of the habitable zone.     

Impact at the Permo-Triassic boundary: a critical evaluation

The recognition in 1980 of a signature of an extraterrestrial impact at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary and its apparent involvement with the mass extinction generated considerable enthusiasm for impacts at other mass extinctions. Numerous claims of impact evidence for the Permo-Triassic mass extinction (251.6 Ma), the largest of the Phanerozoic mass extinctions, have generally been rejected, found wanting, or been difficult to reproduce. Despite this lack of repeatable support, considerable available evidence is consistent with an impact, including the rapidity of extinction, coincident carbon shift, and evident correlation between terrestrial and marine extinctions. However attractive the hypothesis, the coincidence with the Siberian flood basalts and the complex nature of the carbon shift are in conflict with an impact. The most intriguing possibility is that the greatest mass extinction of the Phanerozoic left signals very similar to the end-Cretaceous mass extinction but was produced by entirely Earth-bound processes. If true, this would tell us far more about the nature of ecosystems and how they fail than would identification of another impact.     

Can identification of a fourth domain of life be made from sequence data alone, and could it be done on Mars?

A central question in astrobiology is whether life exists elsewhere in the universe. If so, is it related to Earth life? Technologies exist that enable identification of DNA- or RNA-based microbial life directly from environmental samples here on Earth. Such technologies could, in principle, be applied to the search for life elsewhere; indeed, efforts are underway to initiate such a search. However, surveying for nucleic acid-based life on other planets, if attempted, must be carried out with caution, owing to the risk of contamination by Earth-based life. Here we argue that the null hypothesis must be that any DNA discovered and sequenced from samples taken elsewhere in the universe are Earth-based contaminants. Experience from studies of low-biomass ancient DNA demonstrates that some results, by their very nature, will not enable complete rejection of the null hypothesis. In terms of eliminating contamination as an explanation of the data, there may be value in identification of sequences that lie outside the known diversity of the three domains of life. We therefore have examined whether a fourth domain could be readily identified from environmental DNA sequence data alone. We concluded that, even on Earth, this would be far from trivial, and we illustrate this point by way of examples drawn from the literature. Overall, our conclusions do not bode well for planned PCR-based surveys for life on Mars, and we argue that other independent biosignatures will be essential in corroborating any claims for the presence of life based on nucleic acid sequences.     

A new rationale for returning to the Moon? Protecting civilization with a sanctuary

A process is well underway in which the scientific, technical and cultural information vital to our society is stored in digital form within a limited number of computer facilities. This practice is vulnerable to a variety of catastrophes which would destroy our knowledge base in addition to the losses they caused to population and structures. The Alliance to Rescue Civilization (ARC) proposes that a staffed data backup facility be constructed in a secure location, with the Moon as the site of choice. If Earth's population were destroyed entirely, the lunar sanctuary could serve to repopulate the planet.     

Influence of freezing rate oscillations and convection on eutectic microstructure

As discussed in our review paper (Wilcox, W. R. and Regel, L. L., Microgravity Quarterly, 1994, 4, 147–156), the influence of microgravity on eutectic microstructure has been rather erratic and largely unexplained. Directional solidification in microgravity sometimes coarsened the structure, sometimes made it finer, and sometimes, even on the same system, had no measurable effect. Theoretical models predicted no influence of the weak buoyancy-driven convection that occurs in the vertical Bridgman technique on earth. Thus, we hypothesized that freezing rate fluctuations due to irregular convection might be responsible. For example, with a fibrous microstructure an increase in freezing rate must cause new fibers to form, either by branching or by nucleation. A decrease in freezing rate would cause fibers to terminate by overgrowth of the matrix phase. If the kinetics of fiber formation differs from that for fiber termination, an oscillatory freezing rate would cause the average fiber spacing to deviate from that at a steady freezing rate. We have been investigating this hypothesis both experimentally and theoretically. Vertical Bridgman experiments were performed on the MnBi–Bi eutectic with freezing rate oscillations caused by periodic electric current pulses passed through the material. With increased current amplitude, more and more grains exhibited irregular microstructures. Of the grains with continued quasi-regular rod structure, the microstructure became finer. This result was contrary to that expected from our hypothesis for this system. Numerical modeling also predicted that an oscillatory freezing rate should yield a finer microstructure. It was also predicted that freezing interface oscillations should cause the average melt composition at the freezing rate to deviate from the eutectic. This results in the formation of a composition boundary layer of sufficient thickness that it would become sensitive to convection. Hence we have arrived at a revised hypothesis. On earth, irregular convection causes freezing rate fluctuations that change the interfacial melt composition, leading to a thick composition boundary layer. Convection interacts with this boundary layer to change the interfacial melt composition, thereby altering the response of the system to freezing rate fluctuations.     

Comparison of the roles of nucleotide synthesis, polymerization, and recombination in the origin of autocatalytic sets of RNAs

Ribozymes that act as polymerases and nucleotide synthases are known experimentally, even though no fully self-replicating system has yet been found. If the RNA World hypothesis is true, ribozymes must have arisen initially from within a random abiotic polymerization system. To investigate the origin of the RNA world, we studied a mathematical model of a chemical reaction system describing RNA polymerization. It is supposed that, in absence of ribozymes, polymerization occurs at a small spontaneous rate, and that in the presence of polymerase ribozymes, polymerization occurs at a faster rate that is proportional to the ribozyme concentration. Chains must be longer than a minimum threshold length in order to have the possibility of acting as ribozymes. The reaction system has two stable states that we term dead and living. The dead state is controlled by the small spontaneous rate and has negligible concentration of ribozymes. The living state has high concentration of ribozymes, and the reaction rates are determined by the ribozymes; thus, the system is autocatalytic. Concentration fluctuations in a finite volume can cause a transition to occur from the dead to the living state, that is, an origin of life occurs within this model. We also consider ribozymes that catalyze nucleotide synthesis. We show that living and dead states arise in the presence of synthase ribozymes in the same way as for polymerases. It has been proposed that recombination reactions are a way of generating long RNA chains in the early stages of life. We show that if the possibility of random reversible recombination reactions is added to our model, this does not lead to an increase in long polymer concentration. Thus, if recombination is fully reversible, there is no autocatalytic state controlled by recombination. Nevertheless, recombination can play an important role in ribozyme synthesis if there is an additional process that keeps the recombination reactions out of equilibrium. We modeled a case studied experimentally in which building block strands of moderate length associate due to RNA secondary structure formation. A recombination reaction then occurs between these strands to form a longer sequence that catalyzes its own formation via the recombination reaction. This system has an autocatalytic state, and it is possible for it to arise within our random polymerization system. If complexes formed by associations of shorter strands can act as catalysts without the requirement that the strands be covalently linked, this would alleviate the need for synthesis of very long strands; hence, it makes the emergence of an autocatalytic system from an abiotic random polymerization system much more likely.     

Legal consequences of a SETI detection

If a detection of ETI takes place, this will in all probability be the result of either: (a) detecting and recognising a signal or other emission of ETI; or (b) the finding of an alien artifact (for instance on the Moon or other Celestial Body of our Solar System); or (c) the highly improbable event of an actual encounter. First and foremost, legal consequences regarding any of these contingencies will result from immediate consultations between nations on Earth. Understandings, memoranda and even agreements might be proposed and/or concluded. Such results within the field of terrestrial law will surely be a new branch of International Law, and particularly of International Space Law. At the same time, terrestrial nations will have to realize that any ETI will be self-determined intelligent individualities or organizations who might have their own understanding of “rules of behaviour” and thus, be legal subjects. Whether one calls such rules “law” or not: if two intelligent races—both of which have specific rules of behaviour—come into contact with each other, the basic understanding of such mutual rules will lead to a kind of “code of conduct”. This might be the starting point for a kind of Law—Metalaw—between different races in the Universe.     

Property rights and the duty to extend human life

This article examines what the author calls the ‘argument from duty’, i.e. the argument that we should recognize private property rights in space because doing so will help us to act upon our duty to ensure the future survival of humanity. More strongly, the motivational impact of recognizing such rights may be required if we are to act upon this duty in an effective manner. The article argues that the duty in question is important but not overriding and that there are other duties with which it may happen to conflict. More specifically, the practical requirements of human resettlement may conflict with our duty to pursue a more just and environmentally sensitive way of living here on Earth. If this is correct, only a significantly weakened argument from duty may be made. The article also strengthens the case for thinking about our duties in the light of other ethical considerations.     

An alternative approach to solar system exploration planning

Planning for the future exploration of the solar system has involved the structuring of a series of missions that address major scientific objectives at a minimum runout cost for the entire endeavor. In many cases, however, the optimal structuring of a program that would minimize the runout cost would entail an unacceptable high annual funding. Our actual planning must consider the planning wedge imposed on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. It is vital that a plan be structured that copes with the annual restraint. If we do not recognize this, our plan will not be realized and a queing problem will result, thus negating all of our planning efforts.This paper presents ideas as to how planetary initiatives can be structured, wherein the peak annual funding is minimized. One vital aspect in the plan is to have a transportation capability that can launch a mission in any planetary opportunity. Solar electric propulsion can provide this capability. Another cost reduction approach would be to structure a mission set in a time sequenced fashion that could utilize essentially the same spacecraft for the implementation of several missions. This opportunity does exist. A third technique would be to fulfill a scientific objective in several sequential missions rather than attempt to accomplish all of the objectives with one mission. This approach might be applied to a mission currently in the planning stage designated the Saturn Orbiter Dual Probe mission. The current concept involves the delivery of a Saturn probe, a Titan probe, and a Saturn Orbiter by a one Shuttle launch. In this case, the orbiter must serve as a relay station for both probes; map the magnetosphere of Saturn; conduct a survey of Saturn's major satellites; and perform the planetological observation of Saturn itself. This mission entails the development of a complex spacecraft that would be required to have a fairly long life due to the extended mission operations at the benefit of accomplishing the mission with one launch. An alternate approach would be to break the mission into two separate elements. We could, for example, launch a Saturn orbiter carrying a Saturn entry probe. After serving as a communications relay system for the Saturn probe, the orbiter would then be specialized to map the magnetosphere of Saturn. A second launch would involve the delivery of a Titan probe by another orbiter where after delivery the orbiter would conduct the planetological observation of Saturn and its satellites. For the split-launch option, the runout cost for the two missions would be greater than the single launch option. However, optimum structuring of the two missions could materially reduce the peak annual funding.This paper presents data on the estimated cost on a year by year basis of a mission set structured to minimize the runout cost with no concern as to the peak annual funding as compared to a mission set that would yield the same scientific objectives in a slightly longer time span wherein the annual peak funding would be minimized. The consequences of this revised plan are analyzed.     

情感因素对语言学习的影响

情感因素对语言学习具有重大的影响。在学生智商水平相当的情况下,情感差异会导致学生学习成绩的高低之分。情感差异是由家庭、环境、情趣、学习方法等综合因素造成的。积极的情感会对学生的学习起到促进作用；反之,消极的情感则会阻碍学生的学习。教师在教学中应善于引导学生,促进学生积极情感的产生,减少消极情感的作用,以提高教学效果。     

Space development: social and political implications

Far-reaching social and political issues are implicit in any discussion of large-scale space development. This Viewpoint argues that the evolution of appropriate political institutions to deal with these issues is likely to be at least as important as the development of new technology. If large-scale space development is to take place, global international cooperation will be essential and such cooperation will have to be underpinned by enhanced institutional and legal structures. In the shorter term, an appropriate institutional response may be the creation of a World Space Agency. However, in the longer term, we should probably view a world space programme as falling within that class of global concerns that would be most appropriately managed by a federal world government.     

The carbon or silicon colonization of the universe?

At the time of the Apollo Programme, a first human mission to Mars was proposed as early as 1984 with the argument that the higher costs of human exploration would be more than justified by the increased effectiveness of human explorers. This was based on the Apollo experience, where "ground truth" measurements and sampling provided the basis for subsequent unmanned exploration of the Solar System. A human Mars mission is now not seen until 2030, at the end of a series of increasingly sophisticated unmanned probes. Each robot mission not only teaches us something about Mars, but also through experience increases our capabilities for the unmanned exploration of that planet. As a consequence, what a human mission would have to do becomes progressively more demanding. Any extended plan for the human exploration of Space will tend to be overtaken by advances in technology, and if this is not factored into the scenario the proposals will become progressively unrealistic.     

Testing anthropic selection: a climate change example

Planetary anthropic selection, the idea that Earth has unusual properties since, otherwise, we would not be here to observe it, is a controversial idea. This paper proposes a methodology by which to test anthropic proposals by comparison of Earth to synthetic populations of Earth-like planets. The paper illustrates this approach by investigating possible anthropic selection for high (or low) rates of Milankovitch-driven climate change. Three separate tests are investigated: (1) Earth-Moon properties and their effect on obliquity; (2) Individual planet locations and their effect on eccentricity variation; (3) The overall structure of the Solar System and its effect on eccentricity variation. In all three cases, the actual Earth/Solar System has unusually low Milankovitch frequencies compared to similar alternative systems. All three results are statistically significant at the 5% or better level, and the probability of all three occurring by chance is less than 10(-5). It therefore appears that there has been anthropic selection for slow Milankovitch cycles. This implies possible selection for a stable climate, which, if true, undermines the Gaia hypothesis and also suggests that planets with Earth-like levels of biodiversity are likely to be very rare.     

Desperately seeking life on Mars

Humans appear to be obsessed with the idea of finding life on Mars and have latched on to any evidence—however improbable—that might support its existence. Charting the history of the often deceptive scientific (not to mention literary) findings made about Mars, this viewpoint suggests that our desire to find extraterrestrial life says more about the human need for companionship and communication than about the true past of the planet. Nevertheless, ESA's Mars Express should give us a better understanding of the true likelihood of life ever having existed there after its launch in 2003.     

Invited Pesek lecture: Exploration rather than speculation–assembling the puzzle of potential life beyond Earth

Speculations about the existence of life beyond Earth are probably as old as mankind itself, but still there is no evidence – neither for its presence nor for its absence. Moreover, we neither know the necessary nor the sufficient conditions for life to emerge, sustain or evolve. The Drake equation famously quantifies our ignorance by writing the number of detectable civilizations as product of factors that get increasingly uncertain the further one goes to the right. As a result, the predictive power is poor, and it ultimately depends on the most uncertain factor. However, if we were able to derive a reasonable estimate, we would not need SETI experiments to tell us whether we are alone or not. What has changed substantially over human history is our ability to explore the Universe. Most significantly, radio transmission technology gives us the opportunity to communicate over interstellar distances, and we are now able to not only determine the population statistics of planets within the Milky Way, but even in principle to find biosignatures in their atmospheres. By finding life beyond Earth, we will learn how frequently it emerges. By finding signals from intelligent extra-terrestrial civilizations, we will get unprecedented insight into our biological, technological, and societal evolution. The Drake equation is not such a useful means for assessing the chances of success of SETI, but instead it provides the framework for using observational data in advancing towards understanding the origins of our existence and our role in the cosmos, and maybe to get a glimpse of our future.     

A language based on the fundamental facts of science

The problem of how to communicate with the members of an alien society has been discussed by many authors but only one, Hans Freudenthal, has constructed a language for this purpose. Freudenthal assumes nothing other than the ability to reason as humans do and, because he assumes so little, it is necessary to communicate a great deal about the language itself before being able to communicate any interesting information. The problem is here approached differently. Since it is likely that contact between our civilization and an alien one would be via radio, potential correspondents would have a basic knowledge of science. Such beings should therefore be able to learn a language based on fundamental science. It is assumed, more specifically, that our correspondents can count, understand chemical elements, are familiar with the melting and boiling behaviour of a pure substance and understand the properties of the gaseous state. All this should be known to any society capable of developing the radio telescope. By systematically using this common knowledge one can communicate notation for numbers and chemical elements and then communicate our basic physical units; i.e., the gram, the calorie, the degree (Kelvin), etc. Once this is done more interesting information can be exchanged.     

Synchronized SETI-the case for "opposition"

If the signals being sought in search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) programs exist but are brief (for example, they are produced intermittently to conserve energy), then it is essential to know when these signals will arrive at the Earth. Different types of transmitter/receiver synchronization schemes are possible, which vary in the relative amount of effort required by the transmitter and the receiver. The case is made for a scheme that is extremely simple for the receiver: Make observations of a target when it is at maximum angular distance from the Sun (i.e., "opposition"). This strategy requires that the transmitter has accurate knowledge of the distance and proper motion of the Sun and the orbit of the Earth. It is anticipated that within the next 10-20 years it will be possible to detect directly nearby extrasolar planets of approximately terrestrial mass. Since extraterrestrial transmitters are expected to have significantly more advanced technology, it is not unreasonable to expect that they would be able to detect the presence of the Earth and measure its orbit at even greater distances. This strategy is simple to implement, and opposition is also typically the time when observations are easiest to make. Limited opposition surveys contained in a number of all-sky surveys have already been performed. However, full-sky opposition surveys are best suited to detectors with very large fields of view.     

Vestibular factors influencing the biomedical support of humans in space

This paper will describe the biomedical support aspects of humans in space with respect to the vestibular system. The vestibular system is thought to be the primary sensory system involved in the short-term effects of space motion sickness although there is increasing evidence that many factors play a role in this complex set of symptoms. There is the possibility that an individual's inner sense of orientation may be strongly coupled with the susceptibility to space motion sickness. A variety of suggested countermeasures for space motion sickness will be described. Although there are no known ground-based tests that can predict space motion sickness, the search should go on. The long term effects of the vestibular system in weightlessness are still relatively unknown. Some preliminary data has shown that the otoconia are irregular in size and distribution following extended periods of weightlessness. The ramifications of this data are not yet known and because the data was obtained on lower order animals, definitive studies and results must wait until the space station era when higher primates can be studied for long durations. This leads us to artificial gravity, the last topic of this paper. The vestibular system is intimately tied to this question since it has been shown on Earth that exposure to a slow rotating room causes motion sickness for some period of time before adaptation occurs. If the artificial gravity is intermittent, will this mean that people will get sick every time they experience it? The data from many astronauts returning to Earth indicates that a variety of sensory illusions are present, especially immediately upon return to a 1-g environment. Oscillopsia or apparent motion of the visual surround upon head motion along with inappropriate eye motions for a given head motion, all indicate that there is much to be studied yet about the vestibular and CNS systems reaction to a sudden application of a steady state acceleration field like 1-g. From the above information it is obvious that the vestibular system does have unique requirements when it comes to the biomedical support of space flight. This is not to say that other areas such as cardiovascular, musculo-skeletal, immunological and hematological systems do not have their own unique requirements but that possible solutions to one system can provide continuing problems to another system. For example, artificial gravity might be helpful for long term stabilization of bone demineralization or cardiovascular deconditioning but might introduce a new set of problems in orientation, vestibular conflict and just plain body motion in a rotating space vehicle.     

Nonlinear analysis of hydrodynamic instability in laminar flames—I. Derivation of basic equations

An asymptotic nonlinear integrodifferential equation is derived for spontaneous instability of the plane front of a laminar flame.If the combustible mixture is deficient in the light component, spontaneous instability will lead to self-turbulization of the flame, and the flame front assumes a strongly nonstationary cellular structure.If there is an excess of the light component, spontaneous instability produces stationary, irregular wrinkles on the flame front, and the flame continues to propagate in a laminar regime.It is shown that in all cases spontaneous instability of the flame implies an increase in its propagation velocity.