Flux emergence,flux imbalance,magnetic free energy and solar flares

Emergence of complex magnetic flux in the solar active regions lead to several observational effects such as a change in sunspot area and flux embalance in photospheric magnetograms. The flux emergence also results in twisted magnetic field lines that add to free energy content. The magnetic field configuration of these active regions relax to near potential-field configuration after energy release through solar flares and coronal mass ejections. In this paper, we study the relation of flare productivity of active regions with their evolution of magnetic flux emergence, flux imbalance and free energy content. We use the sunspot area and number for flux emergence study as they contain most of the concentrated magnetic flux in the active region. The magnetic flux imbalance and the free energy are estimated using the HMI/SDO magnetograms and Virial theorem method. We find that the active regions that undergo large changes in sunspot area are most flare productive. The active regions become flary when the free energy content exceeds 50% of the total energy. Although, the flary active regions show magnetic flux imbalance, it is hard to predict flare activity based on this parameter alone.     

太阳黑子自动识别与特征参量自动提取

日面上黑子数目反映了太阳活动水平的高低.黑子形态的复杂性和磁场的非势性与太阳活动爆发密切相关.随着高时空精度的太阳观测数据量的急剧增长，快速准确地自动识别日面上的黑子以及对黑子群特征自动提取已成为太阳活动预报的现实需求.本文针对SDO/HMI的活动区白光数据，利用数学形态法开展黑子自动识别研究，并在黑子识别基础上对黑子群的面积和黑子数进行了计算.通过对利用2011-2017年HMI活动区数据计算得到的黑子群面积和黑子数与NOAA/SWPC发布的活动区相应参量进行比较，发现本文计算结果与SWPC发布数据的变化趋势基本一致，相关性较好.其中黑子群面积的相关系数为0.77，黑子数的相关系数为0.79.研究结果表明，利用本文方法对SDO/HMI数据进行处理，能够得到高时间分辨率的黑子群特征参量，可为太阳活动预报提供及时准确的输入.      

基于PCA方法对太阳活动区主要参量的分析

太阳耀斑与太阳质子事件的发生通常与太阳活动区存在非常密切的关系, 对这种关系的深入分析有助于太阳耀斑和太阳质子事件预报模型的建立. 本文利用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)方法对1997-2010年太阳质子事件所在活动区的主要参量进行分析, 选取的参量包括黑子磁分类、 McIntosh分类、太阳黑子群面积、10.7 cm射电流量、耀斑指数、质子耀斑位置和软X射线耀斑强度. 结果得到81个太阳活动主成分得分值排序(得分值代表每个事件的强弱), 与太阳质子事件峰值流量、太阳黑子年均值以及10.7 cm射电流量年均值的对比显示相似度非常高, 表明主成分得分值一定程度上可以反映太阳活动的强弱规律.      

Synoptic magnetic field in cycle 23 and in the beginning of the cycle 24

The SOHO/MDI data provide the uniform time series of the synoptic magnetic maps which cover the period of the cycle 23 and the beginning of the cycle 24. It is very interesting period because of the long and deep solar minimum between the cycles 23 and 24. Synoptic structure of the solar magnetic field shows variability during solar cycles. It is known that the magnetic activity contributes to the solar irradiance. The axisymmetrical distribution of the magnetic flux (Fig. 3c) is closely associated with the ‘butterfly’ diagram in the EUV emission (Benevolenskaya et al., 2001). And, also, the magnetic field (B_∥) shows the non-uniform distributions of the solar activity with longitude, so-called ‘active zones’, and ‘coronal holes’ in the mid-latitude. Polar coronal holes are forming after the solar maxima and they persist during the solar minima. SOHO/EIT data in the emission of Fe XII (195 Å) could be a proxy for the coronal holes tracking. The active longitudinal zones or active longitude exist due to the reappearance of the activity and it is clearly seen in the synoptic structure of the solar cycle. On the descending branch of the solar cycle 23 active zones are less pronounced comparing with previous cycles 20, 21 and 22. Moreover, the weak polar magnetic field precedes the long and deep solar minimum. In this paper we have discussed the development of solar cycles 23 and 24 in details.     

Tilts and polarity separation in the sunspot groups and active regions at the ascending and descending phases of the cycle 23

The Solar Feature Catalogues for sunspots and active regions measured with SOHO/MDI instrument and Ca II K3 spectroheliograph of the Paris-Meudon Observatory are analyzed with the automated classification technique for sunspot groups and active region polarities. We report the first classification results for daily variations of tilt angles (normal and trigonometric ones) in sunspot groups (SG) and active (AR) regions in the cycle 23. The average normal tilts are presented for every year at the ascending and descending phases of the cycle 23 which are similar to those deduced by other authors for the cycles 19–22. The normal tilts of both the sunspot groups and active regions are shown to increase in the ascending phase and a decrease in the descending phase. Similar to SG and AR areas, the trigonometric tilts are shown to have the noticeable North–South asymmetry with the Southern hemisphere dominant in the selected ascending and descending periods. The normal tilt variations with latitude follow Joy’s law revealing a periodicity along the meridian of about 10° and reaching the maximum of 14° at the latitude of about 32° corresponding to the top of the ‘royal zone’ where the sunspots appear. The variations of polarity separation with a latitude are in an anti-phase with those of the tilts reaching a maximum at the latitude of 35° and showing a small positive separation for the groups/active regions in a vicinity of the average tilts ±40°. The ratio R of the polarity separation to the trigonometric tilt fits the linear function of a latitude φ as R = −0.0213φ − 0.1245 confirming positive separation for the polarities of active regions with the average tilts, or the dominance of activity in the Southern hemisphere activity, for the selected period of observations.     

Actors of the main activity in large complex centres during the 23 solar cycle maximum

During the maximum of Solar Cycle 23, large active regions had a long life, spanning several solar rotations, and produced large numbers of X-class flares and CMEs, some of them associated to magnetic clouds (MCs). This is the case for the Halloween active regions in 2003. The most geoeffective MC of the cycle (Dst = −457) had its source during the disk passage of one of these active regions (NOAA 10501) on 18 November 2003. Such an activity was presumably due to continuous emerging magnetic flux that was observed during this passage. Moreover, the region exhibited a complex topology with multiple domains of different magnetic helicities. The complexity was observed to reach such unprecedented levels that a detailed multi-wavelength analysis is necessary to precisely identify the solar sources of CMEs and MCs. Magnetic clouds are identified using in situ measurements and interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data. Results from these two different sets of data are also compared.     

Application of support vector machine combined with K-nearest neighbors in solar flare and solar proton events forecasting

The support vector machine (SVM) combined with K-nearest neighbors (KNN), called the SVM-KNN method, is new classing algorithm that take the advantages of the SVM and KNN. This method is applied to the forecasting models for solar flares and proton events. For the solar flare forecasting model, the sunspot area, the sunspot magnetic class, and the McIntosh class of sunspot group and 10 cm solar radio flux are chosen as inputs; for the solar proton event forecasting model, the inputs include the longitude of active regions, the flux of soft X-ray, and those for the solar flare forecasting model. Detailed tests are implemented for both of the proposed forecasting models, in which the SVM-KNN and the SVM methods are compared. The testing results demonstrate that the SVM-KNN method provide a higher forecasting accuracy in contrast to the SVM. It also gives an increased rate of ‘Low’ prediction at the same time. The ‘Low’ prediction means occurrence of solar flares or proton events with predictions of non-occurrence. This method show promise for forecasting models of solar flare and proton events.     

Upper limit of the total magnetic flux in an active region according to the photometric-magnetic dynamical model

The photometric-magnetic dynamical model handles the evolution of an individual sunspot as an autonomous nonlinear, though integrable, dynamical system. One of its consequences is the prediction of an upper limit of the sunspot areas. This upper limit is analytically expressed by the model parameters, while its calculated value is verified by the observational data. In addition, an upper limit for the magnetic strength inside the sunspot is also predicted, and then, we obtain the following significant result: The upper limit of the total magnetic flux in an active region is found to be of about 7.23 × 10²³ Mx, namely, phenomenologically equal to the magnetic flux concentrated in the totality of the granules of the quiet Sun, having a typical maximum magnetic strength of about 12G. Therefore, the magnetic flux concentrated in an active region cannot exceed the magnetic flux concentrated in the photosphere as a whole.     

Solar EUV flux variation and flare brightenings

On 2010 February 8, the Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux variation in 195 Å and flare brightening has been examined in different sizes of active regions by using SOHO/EIT, MDI and Hα$\alpha$ observational data. These three active regions represent a large active region with a sunspot group, a moderate active region without a sunspot and a small region with weak plage in Hα$\alpha$ band respectively. Our study shows that the main full disk EUV flux comes from active regions, especially from large active regions. The sudden increases of EUV flux are corresponding to the EUV flare brightenings. For the large active region, the local EUV 195 Å flux peaks are well correlated to that of the GOES X-ray flux. The EUV 195 Å flux peaking time of M-class flares delay GOES X-ray flux a few minutes. For the moderate active region, the local EUV 195 Å flux is not well correlated to GOES X-ray flux. The EUV 195 Å flare brightenings in the moderate active region appeared in the duration of sudden increase of its own local EUV flux. For the small active region, the local EUV 195  Å flux varied almost independently of the GOES X-ray flux. Our study suggests that for an active region its local EUV 195 Å flux is more closely correlated to the EUV flare brightening than the full disk GOES X-ray flux.     

Cluster observations of earthward propagating plasmoid and flux ropes in the near-tail during the course of a substorm event

We analyze the magnetic structures in the near-tail at Xgsm = −17.5 Re on September 19, 2003 by Cluster. During the course of a substorm event, the earthward propagating plasmoid and flux ropes in the near-tail are observed. The earthward propagating plasmoid is associated with the bipolar Bz and By signatures. The two flux ropes are embedded within the earthward plasma flows, which might be referred to the population as ‘‘BBF-type’’ flux ropes. The first flux rope diameter is about 0.7 Re and duration based upon the Bz signature is ∼20 s, while the second one diameter is about 1.4 Re and duration is ∼30 s. The earthward propagating plasmoid and flux ropes could have influence upon the dipolarization and injection in inner magnetosphere. The Cluster observations of earthward propagating plasmoid and flux ropes can be interpreted as strong evidence for multiple X-lines. Our observations are consistent with that multiple plasmoids or flux ropes are formed repeatedly and ejected tailward in the course of geomagnetically active time.     

Impact of rogue active regions on hemispheric asymmetry

The solar dipole moment at activity minimum is a good predictor of the strength of the subsequent solar cycle. Through a systematic analysis using a state-of-the-art $2\times 2$D solar dynamo model, we found that bipolar magnetic regions (BMR) with atypical characteristics can modify the strength of the next cycle via their impact on the buildup of the dipole moment as a sunspot cycle unfolds. In addition to summarizing these results, we present further effects of such “rogue” BMRs. These have the ability to generate hemispheric asymmetry in the subsequent sunspot cycle, since they modify the polar cap flux asymmetry of the ongoing cycle. We found strong correlation between the polar cap flux asymmetry of cycle i and the total pseudo sunspot number asymmetry of cycle $i+1$. Good correlation also appears in the case of the time lag of the hemispheres of cycle $i+1$.     

Reconstruction of solar irradiance using the Group sunspot number

We present a reconstruction of total solar irradiance since 1610 to the present based on variations of the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated from the historical record of the Group sunspot number using a simple but consistent physical model. Our model successfully reproduces three independent data sets: total solar irradiance measurements available since 1978, total photospheric magnetic flux from 1974 and the open magnetic flux since 1868 (as empirically reconstructed from the geomagnetic aa-index). The model predicts an increase in the total solar irradiance since the Maunder Minimum of about 1.3 Wm⁻².     

1986年2月太阳的高活动I活动区4711的演化和特征

本文使用太阳黑子、磁场、Hα色球、10.7cm射电及软X射线流量等观测资料,对太阳活动谷期的高活动区4711(SESC编号)从光球、色球和日冕三个方面做了综述.指出该活动区演化过程的特征是:(1)黑子群在主要发展阶段呈一个紧密的结构复杂的强磁区;(2)两次大的太阳爆发均发生在黑子群面积衰减阶段的初期;(3)黑子群的转动可能是活动区日冕加热和耀斑活动的主要供能机制;(4)色球暗条的频繁活动是爆发的先兆;(5) 10.7cm射电辐射和软X射线辐射的逐日流量有彼此不重合的双峰.      

Relationships of a growing magnetic flux region to flares

Some sites for solar flares are known to develop where new magnetic flux emerges and becomes abutted against opposite polarity pre-existing magnetic flux (review by Galzauskas/1/). We have identified and analyzed the evolution of such flare sites at the boundaries of a major new and growing magnetic flux region within a complex of active regions, Hale No. 16918. This analysis was done as a part of a continuing study of the circumstances associated with flares in Hale Region 16918, which was designated as an FBS target during the interval 18 – 23 June 1980. We studied the initiation and development of both major and minor flares in Hα images in relation to the identified potential flare sites at the boundaries of the growing flux region and to the general development of the new flux. This study lead to our recognition of a spectrum of possible relationships of growing flux regions to flares as follows: (1) intimate interaction with adjacent old flux — flare sites centered at new/old flux boundary, (2) forced or “intimidated” interaction in which new flux pushes old field having lower flux density towards a neighboring old polarity inversion line where a flare then takes place, (3) “influential” interaction — magnetic lines of force over an old polarity inversion line, typically containing a filament, reconnect to the new emerging flux; a flare occurs with erupting filament when the magnetic field overlying the filament becomes too weak to prevent its eruption, (4) inconsequential interaction — new flux region is too small or has wrong orientation for creating flare conditions, (5) incidental — flare occurs without any significant relationship to new flux regions.     

太阳10.7 cm射电流量中期预报模型研究(Ⅱ)

太阳活动指数中期预报一直是空间环境业务预报的难点之一.本文在自回归方法模型的基础上,利用太阳活动区面积、位置等参数与10.7cm辐射流量之间的定量关系,根据活动区面积衰减规律,建立了一个基于活动区参数及演化规律的改进型太阳活动指数中期预报模型.通过对预报测试实例分析发现,在日面出现较大活动区导致F_(10.7)迅速增长并超过历史数据峰值的情况,在日面活动区消亡导致指数突然出现平静期的情况,新模型的预报准确性相比自回归模型有很大提高,预报的平均相对误差下降约5%～9%.由此可见,新模型在某些特定条件下提高了原有模型的精度.该研究为提高业务型太阳10.7cm射电流量中期预报模型的预报精度奠定了基础.     

Inferring plasma flow velocities from photospheric vector magnetic field observations for the investigation of flare onsets

The amount of emergence and submergence of magnetized plasma and the horizontal motion of the footpoints of flux tubes might be crucial for the dynamics of the solar atmosphere. Although the rate of flux emergence and submergence can be observationally determined near the polarity inversion line (Chae et al., 2004), the same is not true for regions away from the PIL. Also, the horizontal motions cannot be directly measured in the solar photosphere. In this sense, the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field provides valuable information which can be used to estimate photospheric plasma flows since magnetic field and plasma are closely associated (frozen-in-condition). We used three methods to estimate the photospheric plasma motion from magnetic field observations. The methods were applied to photospheric vector magnetic field data of active region NOAA 9077, observed by the Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS) of the National Astronomical Observatories of China before and after the ‘Bastille Day’ flare on July 13th and 14th, 2000.     

Evolution of the solar corona from solar maximum to minimum

A study on solar coronal activities related to the 11-year activity cycle is presented from the Yohkoh soft X-ray observations. Yohkoh was launched in August 1991, just after the solar maximum of the cycle 22 and continues to observe the Sun in the declining phase of the magnetic activity cycle toward the solar minimum. The soft X-ray flux from the whole Sun in the declining phase essentially decreases with the size of active regions. The X-ray intensity in quiet regions in the declining phase decreases with the magnetic flux observed at the photosphere. The whole-Sun soft X-ray flux does not monotonically decrease, but there are periodic enhancements of the flux with about a one-year interval. The activity appears as bright clusters in the butterfly diagram of the soft X-ray intensity and corresponds to the emergence of complexes of activity in the sunspot zones. The high-latitude activity is also studied, and we find that the X-ray intensity of high-latitude regions fluctuates with time scale of about one year.     

On the source region of flux transfer events

We have examined the region of occurrence of flux transfer events for three distinct orientations of the interplanetary magnetic field: nearly horizontal in the solar magnetospheric equator, diagonally southward at 45° to the magnetospheric equator and nearly due south. For horizontal IMF conditions the FTE's occur in a horizontal band about ± 6 R_E wide. For diagonally southward IMF conditions, the FTE's occur in a diagonal swath about ± 6 R_E wide passing through the subsolar point. For duskward but nearly due southward IMF conditions, our observations reveal FTE's throughout the northern morning quadrant. These observations are consistent with a near equatorial source for flux transfer events and hence with component merging and not anti-parallel merging. These observations also help understand the energetic ion anisotropies seen in these events.     

Recent advances in upper atmospheric structure

A possible quantitative explanation of the semi-annual variation in thermospheric density has been obtained in terms of a semi-annual variation in the computed globally averaged vertical energy carried by propagating tides from the lower and middle atmosphere into the thermosphere. The effect is primarily due to seasonal changes in the distribution of water vapor and in the solar declination angle and Sun-Earth distance. An MSIS-83 empirical model of the thermosphere, representing a revision of the earlier MSIS models, has been prepared. The database used covers a wider range of solar activity than previous models and an improved magnetic storm representation is included. Atomic oxygen profiles in the 100 to 160 km altitude region of the auroral thermosphere have been recalculated from measured quenching of N₂(A³∑_u⁺) using the latest laboratory rates and the results are in good agreement with the mean CIRA 1972 profile. A new empirical model of thermospheric variations with geomagnetic activity has been developed incorporating variations with local magnetic time, latitude dependent terms which can vary with the magnitude of the geomagnetic disturbance, and an altitude dependent expression for the equatorial wave. A new index ML, derived from the AL index, has been developed that appears to have promise to represent the variations of thermospheric species with geomagnetic activity. Satellite measured values of solar UV flux, ground-based observations of CaK plages, sunspot numbers and 10.7 cm solar radio flux have been analyzed for temporal variations. Some differences have been identified and the significance to empirical and theoretical upper atmosphere models is discussed.     

Multiple wavelength observations of flaring active regions

We present observations of flaring active regions with the Very Large Array (V.L.A. at 6 cm and 20 cm wavelengths) and the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (W.S.R.T. at 6 cm wavelength). These are compared with photospheric magnetograms (Meudon) and with Hα and offband Hα photographs (Big Bear and Ottawa River Solar Observatories). The 6 cm radiation of these active regions marks the legs of dipolar loops which have their footpoints in lower-lying sunspots. The intense, million degree radiation at 6 cm lies above sunspot umbrae in coronal regions where the longitudinal magnetic field strength H_? = 600 Gauss and the height above the sunspot umbrae h = 3.5±0.5 × 10⁹ cm. Circularly polarized horseshoe structures at 6 cm ring the sunspot umbrae. The high degree of circular polarization (?_c = 95%) of the horseshoes is attributed to gyroresonant emission above sunspot^? penumbrae. The 20 cm radiation of these active regions exhibits looplike coronal structures which extend across regions of opposite magnetic polarity in the underlying photosphere. The 20 cm loops are the radio wavelength counterparts of the X-ray coronal loops. We infer semilengths L = 5 × 10⁹ cm, maximum electron temperatures T_e(max) = 3 × 10⁶ K, emission measures ∫N_e²d$\text{l}$ = 10²⁸ cm^?5, and electron densities N_e = 10⁹ cm^?3 (or pressures p = 1 dyn cm^?2) for the 20 cm bremsstrahlung. A total of eight solar bursts were observed at 6 cm or 20 cm wavelength with second-of-arc angular resolution. The regions of burst energy were all resolved with angular sizes between 5″ and 30″, brightness temperatures between 2 × 10⁷ K and 2 × 10⁸ K, and degrees of circular polarization between 10% and 90%. The impulsive phase of the radio bursts are located near the magnetic neutral lines of the active regions, and between the flaring Hα kernels which mark the footpoints of magnetic loops. In one case there was preburst heating in the coronal loop in which a burst occurred. Snapshot maps at 10 s intervals reveal interesting burst evolution including rapid changes of circular polarization and an impulsive burst which was physically separated from both the preburst radio emission and the gradual decay phase of the burst.