Statistical study of the time delay of ionospheric TEC storms to geomagnetic storms in Taoyuan,Taiwan

We have studied the time delay of ionospheric storms to geomagnetic storms at a low latitude station Taoyuan (25.02°N, 121.21°E), Taiwan using the Dst and TEC data during 126 geomagnetic storms from the year 2002 to 2014. In addition to the known local time dependence of the time delay, the statistics show that the time delay has significant seasonal characteristics, which can be explained within the framework of the seasonal characteristics of the ionospheric TEC. The data also show that there is no correlation between the time delay and the intensity of magnetic storms. As for the solar activity dependence of the time delay, the results show that there is no relationship between the time delay of positive storms and the solar activity, whereas the time delay of negative storms has weakly negative dependence on the solar activity, with correlation coefficient −0.41. Especially, there are two kinds of extreme events: pre-storm response events and long-time delay events. All of the pre-storm response events occurred during 15–20 LT, manifesting the Equator Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) feature at Taoyuan. Moreover, the common features of the pre-storm response events suggest the storm sudden commencement (SSC) and weak geomagnetic disturbance before the main phase onset (MPO) of magnetic storms are two main possible causes of the pre-storm response events. By analyzing the geomagnetic indices during the events with long-time delay, we infer that this kind of events may not be caused by magnetic storms, and they might belong to ionospheric Q-disturbances.     

Effects of geomagnetic activity variations on the physiological and psychological state of functionally healthy humans: Some results of Azerbaijani studies

There are collaborative and cross-disciplinary space weather studies in the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences conducted with purposes of revealing possible effects of solar, geomagnetic and cosmic ray variability on certain technological, biological and ecological systems. This paper describes some results of the experimental studies of influence of the periodical and aperiodical changes of geomagnetic activity upon human brain, human health and psycho-emotional state. It also covers the conclusions of studies on influence of violent solar events and severe geomagnetic storms of the solar cycle 23 on the mentioned systems in middle-latitude location. It is experimentally established that weak and moderate geomagnetic storms do not cause significant changes in the brain’s bioelectrical activity and exert only stimulating influence while severe disturbances of geomagnetic conditions cause negative influence, seriously disintegrate brain’s functionality, activate braking processes and amplify the negative emotional background of an individual. It is concluded that geomagnetic disturbances affect mainly emotional and vegetative spheres of human beings while characteristics reflecting personality properties do not undergo significant changes.     

冕洞特征参数与地磁暴强度及发生时间统计

地磁暴是空间天气预报的重要对象.在太阳活动周下降年和低年,冕洞发出的高速流经过三天左右行星际传输到达地球并引发的地磁暴占主导地位.目前地磁暴的预报通常依赖于1AU处卫星就位监测的太阳风参数,预报提前量只有1h左右.为了增加地磁暴预报提前量,需要从高速流和地磁暴的源头即太阳出发,建立冕洞特征参数与地磁暴的定量关系.分析了2010年5月到2016年12月的152个冕洞-地磁暴事件,利用SDO/AIA太阳极紫外图像提取了两类冕洞特征参数,分析了其与地磁暴期间ap,Dst和AE三种地磁指数的统计关系,给出冕洞特征参数与地磁暴强度以及发生时间的统计特征,为基于冕洞成像观测提前1～3天预报地磁暴提供了依据.      

The effect of solar–geomagnetic activity during hospital admission on coronary events within 1 year in patients with acute coronary syndromes

Some evidence indicates the deterioration of the cardiovascular system during space storms. It is plausible that the space weather conditions during and after hospital admission may affect the risk of coronary events in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). We analyzed the data of 1400 ACS patients who were admitted to the Hospital Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, and who survived for more than 4 days. We evaluated the associations between geomagnetic storms (GS), solar proton events (SPE), and solar flares (SF) that occurred 0–3 days before and after hospital admission and the risk of cardiovascular death (CAD), non-fatal ACS, and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) during a period of 1 year; the evaluation was based on the multivariate logistic model, controlling for clinical data. After adjustment for clinical variables, GS occurring in conjunction with SF 1 day before admission increased the risk of CAD by over 2.5 times. GS 2 days after SPE occurred 1 day after admission increased the risk of CAD and CABG by over 2.8 times. The risk of CABG increased by over 2 times in patients admitted during the day of GS and 1 day after SPE. The risk of ACS was by over 1.63 times higher for patients admitted 1 day before or after solar flares.     

SZ-5 Cabin's Height Changes during Three Super-storms in 2003

In this work, the daily height variations of SZ-5 (Shenzhou-5) cabin from 22 October to 28 November in 2003 are analyzed, which includes the period of the Halloween Storm and the Great November Storm. The significant orbital decays have been observed at the end of October and in late November due to the great solar flares and the severe geomagnetic storms. According to the equation of the air-drag-force on a spacecraft and the SZ-5 orbital decay information, the relative daily average thermospheric density changes during the three 2003 super-storms are derived and the results are compared with the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter Radar Extended Model (NRLMSISE-00). The results show that the daily average thermospheric density (at the altitude of SZ-5, about 350 km) in storm time enhances to approximately 200% as much as that in the quiet time but the empirical model may somewhat underestimate the average thermospheric density changes and the daily contributions of geomagnetic storms to the density enhancements during these severe space weather events.      

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

太阳活动突发过程对临近空间大气影响的模拟

空间天气对地球及近地空间具有重要影响,大的空间天气事件对中上层大气动力学和成分具有不同的影响。利用全大气耦合模式WACCM,针对太阳耀斑、太阳质子、地磁暴三类事件,以太阳活动平静期2015年5月10-14日的GEOS-5数据为模式背景场,通过F_10.7、离子产生率、Kp及Ap指数设置,分别模拟三类事件对临近空间大气温度、密度和臭氧的影响。结果表明耀斑事件在三类事件中对临近空间大气温度和密度的影响最为显著。平流层大气温度增加是由耀斑辐射增强引起平流层臭氧吸收紫外辐射发生的光化学反应所致,耀斑事件引起平流层和低热层温度增加约为2～3 K,低热层大气相对密度增加在6%以内;太阳质子事件及磁暴事件主要影响低热层,但太阳质子事件和磁暴事件对低热层温度扰动不大于1 K。     

Statistical analysis of the occurrence rate of geomagnetic storms during solar cycles 20–24

This study examines the occurrences rate of geomagnetic storms during the solar cycles (SCs) 20–24. It also investigates the solar sources at SCs 23 and 24. The Disturbed storm time (Dst) and Sunspot Number (SSN) data were used in the study. The study establishes that the magnitude of the rate of occurrences of geomagnetic storms is higher (lower) at the descending phases (minimum phases) of solar cycle. It as well reveals that severe and extreme geomagnetic storms (Dst < -250 nT) seldom occur at low solar activity but at very high solar activity and are mostly associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) when occurred. Storms caused by CME + CH-HSSW are more prominent during the descending phase than any other phase of the solar cycle. Solar minimum features more CH-HSSW- associated storms than any other phase. It was also revealed that all high intensity geomagnetic storms (strong, severe and extreme) are mostly associated with CMEs. However, CH-HSSW can occasionally generate strong storms during solar minimum. The results have proven that CMEs are the leading cause of geomagnetic storms at the ascending, maximum and the descending phases of the cycles 23 and 24 followed by CME + CH-HSSW. The results from this study indicate that the rate of occurrence of geomagnetic storms could be predicted in SC phases.     

Energetic particle signatures of geoeffective coronal mass ejections

We have studied statistically associations of moderate and intense geomagnetic storms with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and energetic particle events. The goal was to identify specific energetic particle signatures, which could be used to improve the predictions of the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Protons in the range 1–110 MeV from the ERNE experiment onboard SOHO are used in the analysis. The study covers the time period from August 1996 to July 2000. We demonstrate the feasibility of energetic particle observations as an additional source of information in evaluating the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed onset times of solar energetic particle (SEP) events and energetic storm particle (ESP) events, we derive a proxy for the transit times of shocks driven by the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections from the Sun to the Earth. For a limited number of geomagnetic storms which can be associated to both SEP and ESP signatures, we found that this transit time correlates with the strength of geomagnetic storms.     

Forecast of recurrent geomagnetic storms

Long-term forecast of space weather allows in achieving a longer lead time for taking the necessary precautions against disturbances. Hence, there is a need for long-term forecasting of space weather. We studied the possibility for a long-term forecast of recurrent geomagnetic storms. Geomagnetic storms recur with an approximate 27-day period during the declining phase of a solar cycle. These disturbances are caused by the passage of corotating interaction regions, which are formed by interactions between the background slow-speed solar wind and high-speed solar wind streams from a coronal hole. In this study, we report on the performance of 27-day-ahead forecasts of the recurrent geomagnetic disturbances using Kp index. The methods of the forecasts are on the basis of persistence, autoregressive model, and categorical forecast using occurrence probability. The forecasts show better performance during the declining phase of a solar cycle than other phases. The categorical forecast shows the probability of detection (POD) more than 0.5 during the declining phase. Transition of the performance occurs sharply among the declining phases and other phases.     

用银河宇宙线判定几个引起特大磁暴CME的运动方向

利用位于南北极尖区位置的McMurdo和Thule台站的宇宙线强度的观测数据，分析了几个引起特大磁暴CME的来向．分析结果表明，所选的与4个特大磁暴相关的CME基本是朝正对磁层顶的方向运动并与磁层作用的．通过对引起第23周两个特大磁暴的CME特征分析对照，发现CME的来向是影响磁暴强弱的一个因素．同样条件下，运动方向偏向地球一侧的CME引起的磁暴比正对地球的CME引起的磁暴要弱。     

Time delay of ionospheric TEC storms to geomagnetic storms and pre-storm disturbance events in East Asia

Using the TEC data at Beijing (39.61°N, 115.89°E)/Yakutsk (62.03°N, 129.68°E) stations of East Asia regions and relevant geomagnetic data from 2010 to 2017, we have studied the time delay of ionospheric storms to geomagnetic storms and compare it with our previous results of Taoyuan (25.02°N, 121.21°E) station (Zhang et al., 2020). The data shows a well-known local time dependence of the time delay, and seasonal dependences are different at these stations. In addition, there is no correlation between the time delay and the magnetic storm intensity /solar activity, except the time delay of negative storms has weakly negative dependence on the solar activity. Comparing with the results of Taoyuan station which is located at EIA region in East Asia, we find that the time delay increases nonlinearly as the latitude decreases due to different ionospheric backgrounds at these places. Moreover, the pre-storm disturbance events are found to have similar statistical characteristics as the pre-storm enhancement in Europe middle latitudes (Bure?ová and La?tovi?ka, 2007). By subtracting the common features of the pre-storm disturbance events, we preliminarily infer that auroral activity might be main driver of the pre-storm disturbance events.     

第24太阳活动周地球附近磁云与非磁云事件的统计分析

为研究第24太阳活动周中磁云（Magnetic Clouds,MC）与非磁云（Non-Magnetic Clouds,non-MC）的等离子体性质及其对空间天气的影响,使用1AU处的观测数据对2008-2015年168个ICME事件进行统计与分析,其中认证出磁云事件68个,占总数的40.48%.通过分析磁云与非磁云等离子体参数对空间天气环境的影响及与太阳活动的关系,整体性质的对比及在第23和24太阳活动周中性质的对比,可以发现:在第24太阳周中,磁云引起的磁暴强度普遍大于非磁云,南北向磁场分量是引起磁暴的重要参数;磁云数和太阳黑子数有很好的相关性,非磁云数与行星际日冕物质抛射总数及黑子数的相关性稍弱,磁云数在太阳周的不同阶段表现出不同的分布特性;磁云的磁场强度和南向磁场分量整体强于非磁云,两者质子温度、密度等参数差异不大.第24周磁云事件引起的地磁效应整体上弱于第23周磁云事件,这与第24周磁云事件最大南向磁场分量、传播速度以及质子温度整体小于第23周磁云事件有关.      

Ionospheric response to solar and magnetospheric protons during January 15–22, 2005: EAGLE whole atmosphere model results

We present an analysis of the ionosphere and thermosphere response to Solar Proton Events (SPE) and magnetospheric proton precipitation in January 2005, which was carried out using the model of the entire atmosphere EAGLE. The ionization rates for the considered period were acquired from the AIMOS (Atmospheric Ionization Module Osnabrück) dataset. For numerical experiments, we applied only the proton-induced ionization rates of that period, while all the other model input parameters, including the electron precipitations, corresponded to the quiet conditions. In January 2005, two major solar proton events with different energy spectra and proton fluxes occurred on January 17 and January 20. Since two geomagnetic storms and several sub-storms took place during the considered period, not only solar protons but also less energetic magnetospheric protons contributed to the calculated ionization rates. Despite the relative transparency of the thermosphere for high-energy protons, an ionospheric response to the SPE and proton precipitation from the magnetotail was obtained in numerical experiments. In the ionospheric E layer, the maximum increase in the electron concentration is localized at high latitudes, and at heights of the ionospheric F2 layer, the positive perturbations were formed in the near-equatorial region. An analysis of the model-derived results showed that changes in the ionospheric F2 layer were caused by a change in the neutral composition of the thermosphere. We found that in the recovery phase after both solar proton events and the enhancement of magnetospheric proton precipitations associated with geomagnetic disturbances, the TEC and electron density in the F region and in topside ionosphere/plasmasphere increase at low- and mid-latitudes due to an enhancement of atomic oxygen concentration. Our results demonstrate an important role of magnetospheric protons in the formation of negative F-region ionospheric storms. According to our results, the topside ionosphere/plasmasphere and bottom-side ionosphere can react to solar and magnetospheric protons both with the same sign of disturbances or in different way. The same statement is true for TEC and foF2 disturbances. Different disturbances of foF2 and TEC at high and low latitudes can be explained by topside electron temperature disturbances.     

Study of mid-latitude ionospheric convection during quiet and disturbed periods using the SuperDARN Hokkaido radar

Westward ionospheric convective flows around midnight are frequently observed at mid-latitudes. They can be generated by so-called disturbance dynamo mechanisms working mainly in the mid-latitudes. To understand the influence of disturbance dynamo effects in the mid-latitudes, we studied the latitudinal distribution of westward flows in association with several kinds of geomagnetic disturbances using the SuperDARN Hokkaido radar. This radar creates high temporal resolution (1 s to 2 min), two-dimensional observations measuring the line-of-sight velocities of ionospheric plasma irregularities, which can be regarded as line-of-sight velocities of ionospheric convection in the mid-latitude region from 40° to 50°. This region could not be monitored using preexisting SuperDARN radars. In this study, we used ionospheric echo data obtained by the SuperDARN Hokkaido radar over 5 years (December 2006 to November 2011). We identified westward flows around midnight at about 40° to 55° geomagnetic latitude. Additionally, the data showed that the westward flow around midnight intensified under high geomagnetic activity (high Kp). This suggests that the disturbance dynamo could affect the mid-latitude ionospheric convection. We performed Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) to study the influences from the geomagnetic disturbances on mid-latitude ionospheric convection. We found no obvious influence during major storms (minimum Dst below −60 nT). SEA was also used to study the temporal and latitudinal dependence on the influences from substorms. From analysis of 36 events of AL-defined substorms, we saw that the influence of substorms lasted from 5 to 20 h after the onset between 44° and 53° geomagnetic latitude. The westward flow at mid-latitude grew to a maximum at 12 h after the geomagnetic substorm onset. This is consistent with the results of past numerical simulation studies of the disturbance dynamo effects.     

Possible influence of solar extreme events and related geomagnetic disturbances on human cardio-vascular state: Results of collaborative Bulgarian–Azerbaijani studies

This collaborative study is based on the analysis and comparison of results of coordinated experimental investigations conducted in Bulgaria and Azerbaijan for revealing a possible influence of solar activity changes and related geomagnetic activity variations on the human cardio-vascular state. Arterial blood pressure and heart rate of 86 healthy volunteers were measured on working days during a period of comparatively high solar and geomagnetic activity (2799 measurements in autumn 2001 and spring 2002) in Sofia. Daily experimental investigations of parameters of cardio-vascular health state were performed in Azerbaijan with a permanent group of examined persons. Heart rate and electrocardiograms were digitally registered (in total 1532 records) for seven functionally healthy persons on working days and Saturdays, in the Laboratory of Heliobiology at the Medical Center INAM in Baku, from 15.07.2006 to 13.11.2007. Obtained digital recordings were subjected to medical, statistical and spectral analyses. Special attention was paid to effects of solar extreme events, particularly those of November 2001 and December 2006. The statistical method of the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and post hoc analysis were applied to check the significance of the influence of geomagnetic activity on the cardio-vascular parameters under consideration. Results revealed statistically significant increments for the mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure values of the group with geomagnetic activity increase. Arterial blood pressure values started increasing two days prior to geomagnetic storms and kept their high values up to two days after the storms. Heart rate reaction was ambiguous and not significant for healthy persons examined (for both groups) under conditions with geomagnetic activity changes. It is concluded that heart rate for healthy persons at middle latitudes can be considered as a more stable physiological parameter which is not so sensitive to environmental changes while the dynamics of arterial blood pressure reveals a compensatory reaction of the human organism for adaptation.     

1998年4月下旬至5月上旬地磁暴的日地事件认证

综合运用SOHO／LASCO、SOHO／EIT关于CME的观测结果和WIND飞船关于太阳风的观测记录，识别了1998年4月下旬至5月上旬发生的磁暴的CME源，分析了与5月初强磁暴群相联系的日地事件。结果表明，所用日地扰动事件关系认证的方法是可行的，本文就上述日地事件所涉及的磁暴群与活动区的关系、CME地磁效应的日面东西不对称性以及磁云与高速流的作用等问题进行了讨论。     

Low latitude ionospheric TEC responses to dynamical complexity quantifiers during transient events over Nigeria

In this study, the values of chaoticity and dynamical complexity parameters for some selected storm periods in the year 2011 and 2012 have been computed. This was done using detrended TEC data sets measured from Birnin-Kebbi, Torro and Enugu global positioning system (GPS) receiver stations in Nigeria. It was observed that the significance of difference (SD) values were mostly greater than 1.96 but surprisingly lower than 1.96 in September 29, 2011. The values of the computed SD were also found to be reduced in most cases just after the geomagnetic storm with immediate recovery a day after the main phase of the storm while the values of Lyapunov exponent and Tsallis entropy remains reduced due to the influence of geomagnetic storms. It was also observed that the value of Lyapunov exponent and Tsallis entropy reveals similar variation pattern during storm period in most cases. Also recorded surprisingly were lower values of these dynamical quantifiers during the solar flare event of August 8th and 9th of the year 2011. The possible mechanisms responsible for these observations were further discussed in this work. However, our observations show that the ionospheric effects of some other possible transient events other than geomagnetic storms can also be revealed by the variation of chaoticity and dynamical complexity.     

Mid-latitude amplitude scintillation of GPS signals and GPS performance slips

Degradation of transionospheric radio signals and operation failures during ionospheric disturbances constitute a crucial factor of space weather influence on radio engineering satellite systems performance. We found that during the main phase of strong magnetic storms in 2000–2003 when the auroral oval expands into mid-latitudes, its southern boundary develops a region with intense small-scale electron density irregularities. Such irregularities may cause strong amplitude scintillations of GPS signals at both GPS operating frequencies. The another consequence of it was significant random GPS signal phase fluctuations, breaking-down of signal tracking, and sharp increasing of GPS positioning errors as a result.     

海南地区强磁暴期间强区域扩展F事件研究

利用2004年海南DPS-4数字测高仪观测到的强区域扩展F(SSF)数据,分析研究了5个强磁暴(Dst＜-100 nT)事件期间海南SSF的响应特征.结果发现,在海南地区,5个强磁暴事件中有3个磁暴Dst最小值位于2200-0200 LT之间,在磁暴主相及恢复相初期均出现了SSF现象,这种触发作用可能源于磁层直接渗透电场的作用,而另两个磁暴Dst最小值均发生在白天,一个SSF现象出现在磁暴的恢复相晚间,另一个SSF现象出现在超强磁暴的初相晚间,后者可能由该超强磁暴的急始造成的直接渗透电场所触发;5个强磁暴期间发生的SSF现象或者仅出现在午夜前,或者先出现在午夜前并持续到午夜后;同时,还就这些观测结果与Dabas等人有关磁暴对ESF影响的结论进行对比和讨论.