The automated prediction of solar flares from SDO images using deep learning

In the last few years, there has been growing interest in near-real-time solar data processing, especially for space weather applications. This is due to space weather impacts on both space-borne and ground-based systems, and industries, which subsequently impacts our lives. In the current study, the deep learning approach is used to establish an automated hybrid computer system for a short-term forecast; it is achieved by using the complexity level of the sunspot group on SDO/HMI Intensitygram images. Furthermore, this suggested system can generate the forecast for solar flare occurrences within the following 24 h. The input data for the proposed system are SDO/HMI full-disk Intensitygram images and SDO/HMI full-disk magnetogram images. System outputs are the “Flare or Non-Flare” of daily flare occurrences (C, M, and X classes). This system integrates an image processing system to automatically detect sunspot groups on SDO/HMI Intensitygram images using active-region data extracted from SDO/HMI magnetogram images (presented by Colak and Qahwaji, 2008) and deep learning to generate these forecasts. Our deep learning-based system is designed to analyze sunspot groups on the solar disk to predict whether this sunspot group is capable of releasing a significant flare or not. Our system introduced in this work is called ASAP_Deep. The deep learning model used in our system is based on the integration of the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Softmax classifier to extract special features from the sunspot group images detected from SDO/HMI (Intensitygram and magnetogram) images. Furthermore, a CNN training scheme based on the integration of a back-propagation algorithm and a mini-batch AdaGrad optimization method is suggested for weight updates and to modify learning rates, respectively. The images of the sunspot regions are cropped automatically by the imaging system and processed using deep learning rules to provide near real-time predictions. The major results of this study are as follows. Firstly, the ASAP_Deep system builds on the ASAP system introduced in Colak and Qahwaji (2009) but improves the system with an updated deep learning-based prediction capability. Secondly, we successfully apply CNN to the sunspot group image without any pre-processing or feature extraction. Thirdly, our system results are considerably better, especially for the false alarm ratio (FAR); this reduces the losses resulting from the protection measures applied by companies. Also, the proposed system achieves a relatively high scores for True Skill Statistics (TSS) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS).     

基于深度学习的太阳黑子Wilson山磁类型识别方法

太阳黑子是太阳光球层中带有较强磁场的区域,通常是太阳爆发活动的源区。Wilson山磁分类是当前最为主流的太阳黑子分类方法之一,对研究太阳爆发有重要意义。利用2010－2017年间SDO/HMI成像仪观测到的720s_SHARP磁图和白光图数据,研究使用深度学习对太阳黑子群Wilson山磁分类的方法。实验结果表明,Xception网络在识别太阳黑子Wilson山磁类型上能取得最优的效果,其中对α类型黑子的F₁得分为96.50%,β类为93.20%,其他类型的黑子为84.65%。      

Temporal variation and asymmetry of sunspot and solar plage types from 1930 to 1936

Using the recently converted to digital format heliophysics catalogues of the Ebro Observatory published in the 1930s, we analyse simultaneously the temporal variation and asymmetry of two different solar structures located at different layers of the solar atmosphere: sunspots and solar plages. In particular, we do the research for all the types of sunspots and plages, including the daily and relative frequencies over the solar cycle. The data were catalogued using the sunspot Cortie classification and a solar plage classification scheme proposed by the Ebro Observatory, which group the phenomena by size and shape. For all types of both sunspots and plages, we observe a decrease in their frequency up to the end of solar cycle 16 and an increase over the beginning of solar cycle 17. Furthermore, we note that small sunspot groups are more likely to happen than bigger groups, although single big spots dominate near the solar minimum. The daily frequency of solar plage occurrences shows that there is not a dominance of compact or scattered solar plages. The North-South occurrence distribution of every type in both sunspots and solar plages shows an asymmetry during the solar cycle: in its declining phase, such asymmetry is directed to the north, while in the beginning of a new cycle is directed to the south.     

Distribution of electric current in solar plasma loops

The distributing profile of electric current in solar plasma loop is a key factor for the MHD instabilities of the loops. However, it is very difficult to measure such profile in single loop. In this paper, we assume that, in spite of the complexity of the structure in most of the sunspots, the distribution of the electric current in some small simple sunspots may reflect the main feature of the distribution in solar plasma loops. We utilize the high-cadence, high-resolution vector magnetograms observed by Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) to derive the longitudinal electric current and analyze the distribution of the longitudinal electric current in the region of sunspots, and simulate the distributing features of the solar plasma loops. From these analysis, we find that the electric current in some small simple sunspots, or to say in plasma loops, are concentrated to their center. Such distribution feature is consistent with the theory of pinch effect in current-carrying plasma loops.     

Latitudinal distribution of solar coronal active regions

We studied the cyclic evolution of the latitudinal distribution of solar coronal active regions based on daily images from SOHO EIT for the period 1995–2017. Fully automated software was used, which included the following steps: initial preparation of images in the data series, normalization of histograms and correction of limb brightening, segmentation of images using threshold intensity values obtained from their histograms, scanning of segmented images in heliographic coordinates and obtaining profiles of latitudinal distribution of coronal active regions for each image of the data series. From the output data, we obtained a temporary change in the latitudinal distribution profiles and the migration of activity centers on the solar disk. From the period of minimum activity to the next minimum in both hemispheres, activity centers begin to migrate from high latitudes towards the equator. At the same time, the general center of activity repeatedly changes the direction of migration. The latitudinal distribution of the so-called presence factor of coronal active regions closely resembles the magnetic butterfly diagram, which proves their direct causal relationships. Variations in the presence factor of coronal active regions are correlated with cyclic variations in the sunspot daily numbers.     

Segmentation of extreme ultraviolet solar images via multichannel fuzzy clustering

The study of the variability of the solar corona and the monitoring of its traditional regions (Coronal Holes, Quiet Sun and Active Regions) are of great importance in astrophysics as well as in view of the Space Weather and Space Climate applications. Here we propose a multichannel unsupervised spatially constrained fuzzy clustering algorithm that automatically segments EUV solar images into Coronal Holes, Quiet Sun and Active Regions. Fuzzy logic allows to manage the various noises present in the images and the imprecision in the definition of the above regions. The process is fast and automatic. It is applied to SoHO–EIT images taken from February 1997 till May 2005, i.e. along almost a full solar cycle. Results in terms of areas and intensity estimations are consistent with previous knowledge. The method reveal the rotational and other mid-term periodicities in the extracted time series across solar cycle 23. Further, such an approach paves the way to bridging observations between spatially resolved data from imaging telescopes and time series from radiometers. Time series resulting form the segmentation of EUV coronal images can indeed provide an essential component in the process of reconstructing the solar spectrum.     

White-light movies of the solar photosphere from the soup instrument on spacelab 2

We present initial results on solar granulation, pores and sunspots from the white-light films obtained by the Solar Optical Universal Polarimeter (SOUP) instrument on Spacelab 2. SOUP contains a 30-cm Cassegrain telescope, an active secondary mirror for image stabilization, and a white-light optical system with 35-mm film and video cameras. Outputs from the fine guidance servo provided engineering data on the performance of the ESA Instrument Pointing System (IPS). Several hours of movies were taken at various disk and limb positions in quiet and active regions. The images are diffraction-limited at 0.5 arc second resolution and are, of course, free of atmospheric seeing and distortion. Properties of the granulation in magnetic and non-magnetic regions are compared and are found to differ significantly in size, rate of intensity variation, and lifetime. In quiet sun on the order of fifty percent of the area has at least one “exploding granule” occurring in it during a 25 minute period. Local correlation tracking has detected several types of transverse flows, including systematic outflow from the penumbral boundary of a spot, motion of penumbral filaments, and cellular flow patterns of supergranular and mesogranular size. Feature tracking has shown that in quiet sun the average granule fragment has a velocity of about one kilometer per second.     

Predicting indices of the ionosphere response to solar activity for the ascending phase of the 25th solar cycle

The international reference ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, models require reliable prediction of solar and ionospheric proxy indices of solar activity for nowcasting and forecasting of the ionosphere parameters. It is shown that IRI prediction errors could increase for the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the peak height hmF2 due to erroneous predictions of the ionospheric global IG index and the international sunspot number SSN1 index on which IRI and IRI-Plas models are built. Regression relation is introduced to produce daily SSN1 proxy index from new time series SSN2 index provided from June 2015, after recalibration of sunspots data. To avoid extra errors of the ionosphere model a new solar activity prediction (SAP) model for the ascending part of the solar cycle SC25 is proposed which expresses analytically the SSN1 proxy index and the 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 index in terms of the phase of the solar cycle, Φ. SAP model is based on monthly indices observed during the descending part of SC24 complemented with forecast of time and amplitude for SC25 peak. The strength of SC25 is predicted to be less than that of SC24 as shown with their amplitudes for eight types of indices driving IRI-Plas model.     

Coronal spectroscopy: Probing sources of slow solar wind in active regions,and the early phases of solar flares

Coronal spectroscopy has pushed forward the understanding of physical processes in all phenomena on the Sun. In this review we concentrate specifically on plasma parameters measured in sources of the slow solar wind in active regions and the early phases of solar flares. These topics are a key part of the science goals of the Solar Orbiter mission (Müller et al., 2020) which has been designed to probe what drives the solar wind and solar transients that fill the heliosphere.Active regions, outside of flaring, have general characteristics that include closed loops showing red-shifted (down-flowing plasma), and the edges of the active regions showing blue-shifted (upflowing plasma). Constraining and understanding the evolution, behaviour and cause of the flows has been developed in the past years and are summarised. Of particular importance is the upflowing plasma which, in some cases, can contribute to the slow solar wind, and this review concentrates on recent results on this topic.The early phases of solar flares and their energy sources are not yet fully understood. For decades, there has been a huge interest in pin-pointing the trigger of a solar flare. Coronal spectroscopy has revealed small-scale dynamics that occurs tens of minutes before the flare begins. The understanding of the trigger is key to improving flare predictions in the future, as well as understanding the physical processes.Finally we look to the future of coronal spectroscopy, with new instruments and methodologies being developed that build on the current knowledge, and will improve significantly our physical understanding of processes at all scales on the Sun.     

太阳宁静区磁漏斗结构的扩展特征

通过对观测的光球纵向磁场进行势场外推, 重构了一个太阳宁静区光球以上的磁场结构. 结果显示, 在20 Mm 以下, 开放磁力线呈现多个明显的小磁漏斗结构, 这些小磁漏斗结构随高度扩展, 并且在20 Mm 左右融合成大的漏斗结构. 通过系统地研究磁漏斗结构横截面积随高度的变化趋势, 发现太阳宁静区磁漏斗结构的截面积随高度近似线性扩展, 磁漏斗结构在较低高度上(<20Mm) 扩展的速度比在较高高度上 (>20Mm) 扩展的速度要快. 这一结果对太阳风起源和磁环中物质流动的二维数值模拟具有重要的意义. 同时还发现, 闭合磁力线的数目随高度以指数函数的形式减少.      

How far are we from a ‘Standard Model’ of the solar dynamo?

Over the last few years, dynamo theorists seem to be converging on a basic scenario as to how the solar dynamo operates. The strong toroidal component of the magnetic field is produced in the tachocline, from where it rises due to magnetic buoyancy to produce active regions at the solar surface. The decay of tilted bipolar active regions at the surface gives rise to the poloidal component, which is first advected poleward by the meridional circulation and then taken below the surface to the tachocline where it can be stretched to produce the toroidal component. The mathematical formulation of this basic model, however, involves the specification of some parameters which are still uncertain. We review these remaining uncertainties which have resulted in disagreements amongst various research groups and have made it impossible to still arrive at something that can be called a standard model of the solar dynamo.     

Essential features of long-term changes of areas and diameters of sunspot groups in solar activity cycles 12–24

We analyze the Greenwich catalog data on areas of sunspot groups of last thirteen solar cycles. Various parameters of sunspots are considered, namely: average monthly smoothed areas, maximum area for each year and equivalent diameters of groups of sunspots. The first parameter shows an exceptional power of the 19th cycle of solar activity, which appears here more contrastively than in the numbers of spots (that is, in Wolf’s numbers). It was found that in the maximum areas of sunspot groups for a year there is a unique phenomenon: a short and high jump in the 18th cycle (in 1946–1947) that has no analogues in other cycles. We also studied the integral distributions for equivalent diameters and found the following: (a) the average value of the index of power-law approximation is 5.4 for the last 13 cycles and (b) there is reliable evidence of Hale's double cycle (about 44?years). Since this indicator reflects the dispersion of sunspot group diameters, the results obtained show that the convective zone of the Sun generates embryos of active regions in different statistical regimes which change with a cycle of about 44?years.     

中等磁暴太阳周分布的统计研究

依据实际观测的中等磁暴数据,统计分析了中等磁暴的太阳周分布.分析结果表明,在一个太阳活动周内,每年中等磁暴随时间的变化出现多个峰值,其中,最大峰值均出现在太阳活动周的下降段,即中等磁暴的峰值比太阳黑子数平滑年均值的峰值要滞后,滞后的时间为2～3年.超过70%的中等磁暴出现在太阳活动周的下降段,这表明绝大多数中等磁暴出现在太阳活动周的下降段.通过对中等磁暴平滑月均值与太阳黑子数平滑月均值相位差的计算分析发现,中等磁暴峰值出现的时间比太阳黑子数峰值出现的时间要滞后,不同太阳活动周中等磁暴峰值出现的时间与太阳黑子数峰值时间滞后的程度不同.      

Sharp boundaries of solar wind plasma structures and their relationship to solar wind turbulence

Sharp (<10 min) and large (>20%) solar wind ion flux changes are common phenomena in turbulent solar wind plasma. These changes are the boundaries of small- and middle-scale solar wind plasma structures which can have a significant influence on Earth’s magnetosphere. These solar wind ion flux changes are typically accompanied by only a small change in the bulk solar wind velocity, hence, the flux changes are driven mainly by plasma density variations. We show that these events occur more frequently in high-density solar wind. A characteristic of solar wind turbulence, intermittency, is determined for time periods with and without these flux changes. The probability distribution functions (PDF) of solar wind ion flux variations for different time scales are calculated for each of these periods and compared. For large time scales, the PDFs are Gaussian for both data sets. For small time scales, the PDFs from both data set are more flat than Gaussian, but the degree of flatness is much larger for the data near the sharp flux change boundaries.     

Observational study of magnetic chirality of solar active regions

We present the evolution of magnetic field and relationship with the magnetic (current) helicity in solar active regions from a series of photospheric vector magnetograms obtained at Huairou Solar Observing Station near Beijing, and also longitudinal magnetograms by MDI of SOHO, white light and 171 Å images by TRACE and soft X-ray images by Yohkoh.The conclusions in the analysis of the formation process of complex and delta magnetic configuration in some super active regions are the following: (1) The magnetic shear and gradient provide the non-potentiality of the magnetic field of active regions reflecting the existence of electric current. (2) Some of large-scale delta active regions could be due to the emergence of highly sheared non-potential magnetic flux bundles from the subatmosphere with amount of magnetic helicity, in addition to the emergence of twisted magnetic ropes. (3) We also present some results on the study of the magnetic (current) helicity in solar active regions.     

Effect of solar activity on the repetitiveness of some meteorological phenomena

In this paper we research the relationship between solar activity and the weather on Earth. This research is based on the assumption that every ejection of magnetic field energy and particles from the Sun (also known as Solar wind) has direct effects on the Earth’s weather. The impact of coronal holes and active regions on cold air advection (cold fronts, precipitation, and temperature decrease on the surface and higher layers) in the Belgrade region (Serbia) was analyzed. Some active regions and coronal holes appear to be in a geo-effective position nearly every 27 days, which is the duration of a solar rotation. A similar period of repetitiveness (27–29 days) of the passage of the cold front, and maximum and minimum temperatures measured at surface and at levels of 850 and 500 hPa were detected. We found that 10–12 days after Solar wind velocity starts significantly increasing, we could expect the passage of a cold front. After eight days, the maximum temperatures in the Belgrade region are measured, and it was found that their minimum values appear after 12–16 days. The maximum amount of precipitation occurs 14 days after Solar wind is observed. A recurring period of nearly 27 days of different phases of development for hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma was found. This analysis confirmed that the intervals of time between two occurrences of some particular meteorological parameter correlate well with Solar wind and A index.     

Correlations between neutral and ionized solar wind

We report results of a statistical study correlating ionized solar wind (ISW) fluxes observed by ACE during late 2000 and throughout 2001 with neutral solar wind (NSW) fluxes observed by IMAGE/LENA over the same period. The average correlation coefficient between the neutral and ionized solar wind is 0.66 with correlations greater than 0.80 occurring about 29% of the time. Correlations appear to be driven by high solar wind flux variability, similar to results obtained by in situ multi-spacecraft correlation studies. In this study, however, IMAGE remains inside the magnetosphere on over 95% of its orbits. As a function of day of year, or equivalently ecliptic longitude, the slope of the relationship between the neutral solar wind flux and the ionized solar wind flux shows an enhancement near the upstream direction, but the symmetry point appears shifted toward higher ecliptic longitudes than the interstellar neutral (ISN) flow direction by about 20°. The estimated peak interstellar neutral upstream density inside of 1 AU is about 7 × 10⁻³ cm⁻³.     

Reconstruction of the solar UV irradiance back to 1974

The variability of the solar UV irradiance has strong effects on the terrestrial atmosphere. In order to study the solar influence for times when no UV observations are available, it is necessary to reconstruct the variation of the UV irradiance with time on the basis of proxies. We present reconstructions of the solar UV irradiance based on the analysis of space-based and ground-based magnetograms of the solar disk going back to 1974. With COde for Solar Irradiance (COSI) we calculate solar intensity spectra for the quiet Sun and different active regions and combine them according to their fractional area on the solar disk, whereby their time-dependent contributions over the solar cycle lead to a variability in radiation. COSI calculates the continuum and line formation under conditions which are out of local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE). The applied temperature and density structures include the chromosphere and transition region, which is particularly important for the UV. The reconstructions are compared with observations.