Cosmic ray modulation in the outer heliosphere: Predictions for cosmic ray intensities up to the heliopause along Voyager 1 and 2 trajectories

Time dependent cosmic ray modulation in the outer heliosphere is calculated and results are compared to Voyager 1 and 2 observations using a two-dimensional time-dependent cosmic ray transport model. We predict possible future 133–242 MeV proton observations along the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft trajectories. Recent theoretical advances in cosmic ray transport parameters are introduced in order to provide a time-dependence for the assumed transport parameters used in the model. This leads to results that are in general compatible with the spacecraft observations in the inner and outer heliosphere over multiple solar cycles. However, for the outer heliosphere, we find that the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft observations cannot be fitted with an identical set of parameters along both trajectories. This indicates a possible asymmetric heliosphere or a symmetric heliosphere but with different diffusion parameters in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Furthermore, results indicate that Voyager 2 observations are still under the influence of solar cycle related changes because of the large modulation volume between the heliopause and spacecraft location in contrast to Voyager 1 which shows a steady increase in cosmic ray intensities.     

Modeling ground and space based cosmic ray observations

After entering our local astrosphere (called the heliosphere), galactic cosmic rays, as charged particles, are affected by the Sun’s turbulent magnetic field. This causes their intensities to decrease towards the inner heliosphere, a process referred to as modulation. Over the years, cosmic ray modulation has been studied extensively at Earth, utilizing both ground and space based observations. Moreover, modelling cosmic ray modulation and comparing results with observations, insight can be gained into the transport of these particles, as well as offering explanations for observed features. We review some of the most prominent cosmic ray observations made near Earth, how these observations can be modelled and what main insights are gained from this modelling approach. Furthermore, a discussion on drifts, as one of the main modulation processes, are given as well as how drift effects manifest in near Earth observations. We conclude by discussing the contemporary challenges, fuelled by observations, which are presently being investigated. A main challenge is explaining observations made during the past unusual solar minimum.     

Effects of solar modulation on the cosmic ray positron fraction

We implemented a 2D Monte Carlo model to simulate the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays. The model is based on the Parker’s transport equation which contains diffusion, convection, particle drift and energy loss. Following the evolution in time of the solar activity, we are able to modulate a local interstellar spectrum (LIS), that we assumed isotropic beyond the termination shock, down to the Earth position inside the heliosphere. In this work we focused our attention to the cosmic ray positron fraction at energy below ∼10 GeV, showing how the particle drift processes could explain different results for AMS-01 and PAMELA. We compare our modulated spectra with observations at Earth, and then make a prediction of the cosmic ray positron fraction for the AMS-02 experiment.     

The charge-sign dependent effect in the solar modulation of cosmic rays

The centennial anniversary of the discovery of cosmic rays was in 2012. Since this discovery considerable progress has been made on several aspects related to galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. It is known that they encounter a turbulent solar wind with an imbedded heliospheric magnetic field when entering the Sun’s domain. This leads to significant global and temporal changes in their intensity inside the heliosphere, a process known as the solar modulation of cosmic rays. The prediction of a charge-sign dependent effect in solar modulation in the late 1970s and the confirmatory observational discoveries can also be considered as a milestone. A short review is given of these predictions based on theoretical and numerical modelling work, the observational confirmation and related issues.     

The heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays: Effects of a latitude dependent solar wind termination shock

Observations made with the two Voyager spacecraft confirmed that the solar wind decelerates to form the heliospheric termination shock and that it has begun its merger with the local interstellar medium. The compression ratio of this shock affects galactic cosmic rays when they enter the heliosphere. Hydrodynamic (HD) models show that the compression ratio can have a significant latitude dependence; with the largest value in the nose direction of the heliosphere, becoming significantly less towards the polar regions. The modulation effects of such large latitude dependence are studied, using a well-established numerical drift and shock modulation model. We focus on computing the modulated spectra for galactic protons with emphasis on the radial and polar gradients in the equatorial plane and at a polar angle of θ = 55°, corresponding to the heliolatitude of Voyager 1. Two sets of solutions are computed and compared each time; with and without a latitude dependence for the compression ratio. All computations are done for the two magnetic field polarity cycles assuming solar minimum conditions. Including the termination shock in the model allows the study of the re-acceleration of galactic protons in the outer heliosphere. We find that for the A < 0 polarity cycle the intensity between ∼200 MeV and ∼1 GeV in the vicinity of the shock in the heliospheric equatorial plane may exceed the local interstellar value specified at the heliopause. Unfortunately, at θ = 55°, the effect is reduced. This seems not possible during an A > 0 cycle because significant modulation is then predicted between the heliopause and the termination shock, depending on how strong global gradient and curvature drifts are in the heliosheath. The overall effect of the shock on galactic protons in the equatorial plane is to reduce the total modulation as a function of radial distance with respect to the interstellar spectrum. Making the compression ratio latitude dependent enhances these effects at energies E < 200 MeV in the equatorial plane. At larger heliolatitudes these effects are even more significant. The differences in the modulation between the two drift cycles are compelling when the compression ratio is made latitude dependent but at Earth this effect is insignificant. A general result is that the computed radial gradient changes for galactic protons at and close to the TS and that these changes are polarity dependent. In line with previous work, large polarity dependent effects are predicted for the inner heliosphere and also close to the shock’s position in the equatorial plane. In contrast, at θ = 55°, the largest polarity effect occurs in the middle heliosphere (50 AU), enhanced by the latitude dependence of the compression ratio. At this latitude, the amount of proton modulation between the heliopause and the termination shock is much reduced. If galactic cosmic rays were to experience some diffusive shock acceleration over the 100–1000 MeV range at the shock, the radial gradient should change its sign in the vicinity of the shock, how large, depends on the compression ratio and the amount of drifts taking place in the outer heliosphere. The effective polar gradient shows a strong polarity dependence at Earth but this dissipates at θ = 55°, especially with increasing radial distance. This tendency is enhanced by making the compression ratio latitude dependent.     

Relation between different theories for cosmic ray cross field diffusion

In the past few year several theories have been presented for describing cosmic ray scattering across the mean magnetic field. It is the purpose of the present article to discuss the relation between these different theories in order to improve our understanding of cosmic ray perpendicular scattering and to explore the parameter regimes for which these different theories are valid.     

Galactic cosmic ray modulation for sunspot cycle 23

We present a study of the galactic cosmic ray modulation for sunspot cycle 23. We use the monthly and the annual mean hourly, pressure corrected, data from neutron monitors of the global network (monthly rate is calculated as the average of the hourly pressure corrected values). We draw attention to an asymmetry in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery during odd and even cycles for the monthly mean hourly rate data. For over half a century of observations, we find that the recovery for the odd cycles is to a higher level than for the even cycles. Qualitatively the effect is ascribed to charged particle drifts in inhomogeneous interplanetary magnetic field. Even so it has not been possible to arrive at a quantitative, self-consistent, explanation in terms of drifts at higher and lower GCR rigidities. We also study the rigidity dependence of the amplitude of 11-year modulation over a wide range (1–200 GV) of GCR spectrum; it is a power law in rigidity with an exponent −1.22. We discuss the implication of these findings on quasi-linear diffusion theories of modulation. We reflect on GCR recovery pattern for 2006–2009.     

Challenges to cosmic ray modeling: From beyond the solar wind termination shock

Voyager 1 crossed the solar wind termination shock on December 16, 2004 at a distance of 94 AU from the Sun, to become the first spacecraft to explore the termination shock region and to enter the heliosheath, the final heliospheric frontier. By the end of 2006, Voyager 1 will be at ∼101 AU, with Voyager 2 at ∼81 AU and still approaching the termination shock. Both spacecraft have been observing the modulation of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays since their launch in 1977. The recent observations close to or inside the heliosheath have provided several interesting ‘surprises’ with subsequent theoretical and modeling challenges. Examples are: what does the modulation of galactic cosmic rays amount to in this region?; how do the anomalous cosmic rays get accelerated and modulated?; why are there ‘breaks’ in the power-law slopes of the spectra of accelerated particles? Several numerical models have been applied to most of these topics over the years and comprehensive global predictions have been made the past decade, thought to be based on reasonable assumptions about the termination shock and the heliosheath. Examples of these predictions and assumptions are concisely discussed within the context of the main observed features of cosmic rays in the vicinity of the termination shock, ending with a discussion of some of the issues and challenges to cosmic ray modeling in particular.     

On the effects of dynamical turbulence on the perpendicular diffusion of low-energy cosmic ray electrons

Diffusion perpendicular to the heliospheric magnetic field plays an integral role in the transport of charged particles in the heliosphere. In this study the perpendicular diffusion coefficient of low-energy cosmic ray electrons is calculated, using an equation derived from the random ballistic decorrelation interpretation of nonlinear guiding centre theory. An observationally motivated 2D turbulence power spectrum is assumed and the effects of various turbulence inputs on the resulting perpendicular diffusion coefficient are investigated. The perpendicular diffusion coefficients are first determined at 1 AU, for both magnetostatic and dynamical turbulence conditions. These solutions are also evaluated for radial distances of 0.1 AU to 10 AU to further investigate the values of the perpendicular diffusion coefficients in the very inner heliosphere. The results of this study show that the dissipation range of the turbulence power spectrum provides a negligible contribution towards the perpendicular diffusion coefficient, and that solutions derived using only the energy containing range serve as good approximations for solutions derived assuming the full 2D turbulence power spectrum. Finally, it is shown that the effects of dynamical turbulence, as considered in the present study, do not affect the perpendicular diffusion coefficients derived from the scattering theory considered here.     

The dynamic heliosphere,solar activity,and cosmic rays

This brief review addresses the relation between solar activity, cosmic ray variations and the dynamics of the heliosphere. The global features of the heliosphere influence what happens inside its boundaries on a variety of time-scales. Galactic and anomalous cosmic rays are the messengers that convey vital information on global heliospheric changes in the manner that they respond to these changes. By observing cosmic rays over a large range of energies at Earth, and with various space detectors, a better understanding is gained about space weather and climate. The causes of the cosmic ray variability are reviewed, with emphasis on the 11-year and 22-year cycles, step modulation, charge-sign dependent modulation and particle drifts. Advances in this field are selectively discussed in the context of what still are some of the important uncertainties and outstanding issues.     

Modelling of galactic Carbon in an asymmetrical heliosphere: Effects of asymmetrical modulation conditions

Observations of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) from the two Voyager spacecraft inside the heliosheath indicate significant differences between them, suggesting that in addition to a possible global asymmetry in the north–south dimensions (meridional plane) of the heliosphere, it is also possible that different modulation (turbulence) conditions could exist between the two hemispheres of the heliosphere. We focus on illustrating the effects on GCR Carbon of asymmetrical modulation conditions combined with a heliosheath thickness that has a significant dependence on heliolatitude. To reflect different modulation conditions between the two heliospheric hemispheres in our numerical model, the enhancement of both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion off the ecliptic plane is assumed to differ from heliographic pole to pole. The computed radial GCR intensities at polar angles of 55° (approximating the Voyager 1 direction) and 125° (approximating the Voyager 2 direction) are compared at different energies and for both particle drift cycles. This is done in the context of illustrating how different values of the enhancement of both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion between the two hemispheres contribute to causing differences in radial intensities during solar minimum and moderate maximum conditions. We find that in the A > 0 cycle these differences between 55° and 125° change both quantitatively and qualitatively for the assumed asymmetrical modulation condition as reflected by polar diffusion, while in the A < 0 cycle, minute quantitative differences are obtained. However, when both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion have significant latitude dependences, major differences in radial intensities between the two polar angles are obtained in both polarity cycles. Furthermore, significant differences in radial intensity gradients obtained in the heliosheath at lower energies may suggest that the solar wind turbulence at and beyond the solar wind termination shock must have a larger latitudinal dependence.     

Long-term (50 years) measurements of cosmic ray fluxes in the atmosphere

Since the middle of 1957 till present time the group of researchers of P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences has carried out the regular balloon borne measurements of charged particle fluxes in the atmosphere. The measurements are performed at polar (northern and southern) and middle latitudes and cover the interval of heights from the ground level up to 30–35 km. Standard detectors of particles (gas-discharged counters) have been used. More than 80,000 measurements of cosmic ray fluxes in the atmosphere have been performed to the present time. In the data analysis the geomagnetic field and the Earth’s atmosphere are used as cosmic ray spectrometers.     

Solar modulation model with reentrant particles

We developed a one dimensional model of particle transport in the heliosphere. As opposite to widely used models, we apply a method where a quasi-particle is traced back in time. The model gives us the possibility to work on the possible existence of reentrant particles in the heliosphere that can be hardly solved by the traditional forward tracking method. Particles escape from the heliosphere and may reenter back. We estimate how these particles affect the modulation process in the heliosphere. Presented here are the results for different values of particles mean free path in the interstellar space and for different interstellar magnetic field values.     

Solar, geomagnetic and cosmic ray intensity changes, preceding the cyclone appearances around Mexico

Recently it has been suggested that there exist specific changes in the cosmic ray intensity and some solar and geomagnetic parameters during the days, preceding the hurricane appearances over the North Atlantic Ocean. To understand better these phenomena, data for all hurricanes born not only over the Atlantic but also over the Pacific waters in the last 55 years that hit the Mexican borders were elaborated. As basic hurricane parameters the maximum rotational velocity and the estimated total energy were used. To avoid any interference all hurricanes, overlapping the preceding ones with more than 20 days were not included. Then the behavior of the cosmic ray (CR) intensity, the sunspot (SS) numbers, and the geomagnetic parameters (AP) and (KP) in 35 days prior and 20 days after the cyclone start were investigated. The CR, SS, AP and KP showed much more intensive disturbances in the periods preceding and following the hurricane appearance. For SS this disturbance gradually increase with the hurricane strength. A characteristic peak in the CR intensity appears before the hurricane start. But its place varies between 5 and 20 days before that start. Specific changes were observed in the SS. For major hurricanes they begins sometimes more than 20 days in advance. The AP and the KP show series of bursts, spread over the whole period of 30 preceding days. The obtained results from the performed correlational analysis are enough interesting to motivate a further statistical analysis with more precise techniques: in particular a common periodicity of 30 years found in the number of tropical storms landing into Mexico, the averaged rotational wind velocity and the ACE must be studied in connection with the solar Hale cycle. Using coherence wavelet spectral analysis we present a comparative study between one terrestrial and one cosmophysical phenomena that presumable influence hurricanes development: African dust outbreaks versus cosmic rays for all North Atlantic tropical cyclones. It is shown that the cosmophysical influence cannot be considered as a negligible effect.     

Modulation of galactic cosmic rays in a north–south asymmetrical heliosphere

Observations made with the two Voyager spacecraft confirmed that the solar wind decelerates to form the heliospheric termination shock. Voyager 1 crossed this termination shock at ∼94 AU in 2004, while Voyager 2 crossed it in 2007 at a different heliolatitude, about 10 AU closer to the Sun. These different positions of the termination shock confirm the dynamic and cyclic nature of the shock’s position. Observations from the two Voyager spacecraft inside the heliosheath indicate significant differences between them, suggesting that apart from the dynamic nature caused by changing solar activity there also may exist a global asymmetry in the north–south (polar) dimensions of the heliosphere, in addition to the expected nose–tail asymmetry. This relates to the direction in which the heliosphere is moving in interstellar space and its orientation with respect to the interstellar magnetic field. In this paper we focus on illustrating the effects of this north–south asymmetry on modulation of galactic cosmic ray Carbon, between polar angles of 55° and 125°, using a numerical model which includes all four major modulation processes, the termination shock and the heliosheath. This asymmetry is incorporated in the model by assuming a significant dependence on heliolatitude of the thickness of the heliosheath. When comparing the computed spectra between the two polar angles, we find that at energies E < ∼1.0 GeV the effects of the assumed asymmetry on the modulated spectra are insignificant up to 60 AU from the Sun but become increasingly more significant with larger radial distances to reach a maximum inside the heliosheath. In contrast, with E > ∼1.0 GeV, these effects remain insignificant throughout the heliosphere even very close to the heliopause. Furthermore, we find that a higher local interstellar spectrum for Carbon enhances the effects of asymmetric modulation between the two polar angles at lower energies (E < ∼300 MeV). In conclusion, it is found that north–south asymmetrical effects on the modulation of cosmic ray Carbon depend strongly on the extent of the geometrical asymmetry of the heliosheath together with the assumed value of the local interstellar spectrum.     

The onset of sunspot cycle 24 and galactic cosmic ray modulation

The annual mean sunspot number (SSN) has a minimum value in 2008, while the monthly mean SSN has a value of zero in August 2009. The galactic cosmic ray modulation for cycle 24 began at earth orbit in January 2010. We study the onset characteristics of the new modulation cycle using data from the global network of neutron monitors. They respond to time variations in different segments of the galactic cosmic ray rigidity spectrum. The corresponding temporal variations in the interplanetary magnetic field intensity (B) and solar wind velocity (V) as well as the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet are also studied. There is a lag of 3 months between a large, sharp increase of the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet and the onset of modulation. Some neutron monitors are undergoing long-term drifts of unknown origin.     

The brief history of experimental research of cosmic ray variations in Yakutia

Some unknown historical facts of cosmic ray studies in the north-east of the former Soviet Union related to the Yakutsk scientific group are reported for the benefit of the international scientific community. It focuses on the founders of Yu.G. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences. A chronology of measurements of cosmic ray intensity variations since 1949 in Yakutia (Sakha Republic; NE Siberia) is given. In particular, for the first time the data of the first solar cosmic ray event registered at Yakutsk (GLE04), with a small ionization chamber S-2 (volume: 20 L) are presented. Moreover, the data of the large ionization chamber ASK-1 (volume: 950 L) for the 1953–2003 period useful for specialists in the field of cosmic ray variations are also shown.     

Early history of cosmic rays and solar wind – Some personal remembrances

The early history of solar wind was replete with prejudices and strong opposition to Parker’s formulation. It was only after conclusive evidence from satellite data was obtained that the idea of solar wind was accepted. Some personal experiences of mine during my stay at the University of Chicago in 1953–1954, including the encounter of Dr. Simpson with Dr. Biermann and the inconclusive discussion between them about a possible perpetual solar outflow of particles are presented and further developments when Parker came to Chicago in 1956 and formulated his idea of solar wind, as narrated to me later by Dr. Simpson, are described.     

Evolution of magnetic fields and cosmic ray acceleration in supernova remnants

Observations show that the magnetic field in young supernova remnants (SNRs) is significantly stronger than can be expected from the compression of the circumstellar medium (CSM) by a factor of four expected for strong blast waves. Additionally, the polarization is mainly radial, which is also contrary to expectation from compression of the CSM magnetic field. Cosmic rays (CRs) may help to explain these two observed features. They can increase the compression ratio to factors well over those of regular strong shocks by adding a relativistic plasma component to the pressure, and by draining the shock of energy when CRs escape from the region. The higher compression ratio will also allow for the contact discontinuity, which is subject to the Rayleigh–Taylor (R–T) instability, to reach much further out to the forward shock. This could create a preferred radial polarization of the magnetic field. With an Adaptive Mesh Refinement MHD code (AMRVAC), we simulate the evolution of SNRs with three different configurations of the initial CSM magnetic field, and look at two different equations of state in order to look at the possible influence of a CR plasma component. The spectrum of CRs can be simulated using test particles, of which we also show some preliminary results that agree well with available analytical solutions.