Variations of the solar acoustic high-degree mode frequencies over solar cycle 23

Using full-disk observations obtained with the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft, we present variations of the solar acoustic mode frequencies caused by the solar activity cycle. High-degree (100 < ? < 900) solar acoustic modes were analyzed using global helioseismology analysis techniques over most of solar cycle 23. We followed the methodology described in details in [Korzennik, S.G., Rabello-Soares, M.C., Schou, J. On the determination of Michelson Doppler Imager high-degree mode frequencies. ApJ 602, 481–515, 2004] to infer unbiased estimates of high-degree mode parameters ([see also Rabello-Soares, M.C., Korzennik, S.G., Schou, J. High-degree mode frequencies: changes with solar cycle. ESA SP-624, 2006]). We have removed most of the known instrumental and observational effects that affect specifically high-degree modes. We show that the high-degree changes are in good agreement with the medium-degree results, except for years when the instrument was highly defocused. We analyzed and discuss the effect of defocusing on high-degree estimation. Our results for high-degree modes confirm that the frequency shift scaled by the relative mode inertia is a function of frequency and it is independent of degree.     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Occurrence rate of SAR arcs during the 23rd solar activity cycle

The occurrence rate of SAR arcs during 1997–2007 has been analyzed based on the photometric observations at the Yakutsk meridian (Maimaga station, corrected geomagnetic coordinates: 57°N, 200°E). SAR arcs appeared in 114 cases (∼500 h) during ∼370 nights of observations (∼3170 h). The occurrence frequency of SAR arcs increases to 27% during the growth phase of solar activity and has a clearly defined maximum at a decline of cycle 23. The SAR arc registration probability corresponds to the variations in geomagnetic activity in this solar cycle. The dates, intervals of UT, and geomagnetic latitudes of SAR arc observations at the Yakutsk meridian are presented.     

Behavior of the atomic oxygen 557.7 nm atmospheric emission in the solar cycle 23

We present the results of nightglow observation of the atomic oxygen 557.7 nm line emission in the solar cycle 23. We use the experimental data obtained at Geophysical observatory near Irkutsk (52°N, 103°E), Russia, for the 1997–2006 period. The 557.7 nm emission observations data are compared with atmospheric and solar parameters. We note a difference in correlation coefficients between the 557.7 nm emission intensity and the solar activity indices in different phases of the solar cycle. Airglow observation results are compared with the observational data obtained by other authors.     

Ozone variability related to several SEP events occurring during solar cycle no. 23

Data from geostationary operational environmental satellite (GOES) series were used to identify intense solar energetic particle (SEP) events occurred during the solar activity cycle no. 23. We retrieved O₃, NO, NO₂, HNO₃, OH, HCl and OHCl profiles coming from different satellite sensors (solar occultation and limb emission) and we looked for the mesospheric/stratospheric response to SEPs at high terrestrial latitudes. The chemistry of the minor atmospheric components is analysed to evaluate the associated odd nitrogen (NO_x) and odd hydrogen (HO_x) production, able to cause short (h) and medium (days) term ozone variations. We investigated the effects of SEPs on the polar atmosphere in three different seasons, i.e., January 2005, April 2002 and July 2000. The inter-hemispheric variability of the ozone, induced by the SEP series of January 2005, has been compared with the effects connected both to larger and quite similar events. We found that during SEP events: (i) solar illumination is the key factor driving SEP-induced effects on the chemistry of the polar atmosphere; (ii) even events with limited particle flux in the range 15–40 MeV are able to change the abundance of the minor constituents in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere.     

Helioseismology and the solar cycle

Helioseismic measurements stretching back for about three decades have clearly shown that the acoustic modes are sensitive to solar-cycle changes. 2006 marks the first full 11-year cycle of continuous observations from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG), and 10 years of observations with the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) aboard the SOHO spacecraft. For the first time, global helioseismology has traced the migrating zonal flow pattern of the torsional oscillation deep within the convection zone, while local helioseismology has revealed the changing pattern of meridional flows over the cycle. The frequencies, lifetimes, and amplitudes of acoustic modes all show variations that closely track the surface distribution of magnetic activity and may provide insight into the excitation and damping of the oscillations. Efforts to trace magnetic field and sound speed or density changes in the solar interior have proved more challenging.     

Solar wind electron density and temperature over solar cycle 23: Thermal noise measurements on Wind

We present the solar wind plasma parameters obtained from the Wind spacecraft during more than nine years, encompassing almost the whole solar cycle 23. Since its launch in November 1994 Wind has frequently observed the in-ecliptic solar wind upstream of the Earth’s bow shock. The WIND/WAVES thermal noise receiver was specially designed to measure the in situ plasma thermal noise spectra, from which the electron density and temperature can be accurately determined. We present and discuss histograms of such measurements performed from 1994 to 2003. Using these large data sets, we study the density and core temperature variations with solar activity cycle and with different regimes of the solar wind. We confirm the anticorrelation of the electron density with the sunspot number, and obtain a positive correlation of the core temperature, with the sunspot number.     

Ground-level enhancements during solar cycle 23: results from SVIRCO,LOMNICKY STIT and LARC neutron monitors

The list of Ground-Level Enhancements (GLEs) occurring during the on-going solar cycle (no. 23) is used to show that they are absent during a time interval of the maximum phase in which a relative reduction in the sunspot area extent occurs. This period refers to October 2000 to March 2001 and it is associated with the concept of the Gnevyshev Gap, introduced 10 years ago by the Rome cosmic ray group. Also, effects of the Gnevyshev Gap in the solar cycle modulation of the atmospheric attenuation coefficient for Rome neutron monitor during the past solar cycle (no. 22) are illustrated. Moreover, it is suggested that GLE data files should be prepared by using the appropriate attenuation coefficient for each level of solar activity.     

A review of solar proton events during the 22nd solar cycle.

Solar cycle 22 had significant, large fluence, energetic particle events on a scale reminiscent of the 19th solar cycle. Examination of the characteristics of these large events suggests that some of the old concepts of spectral form, intensity-time envelope and energy extrapolations, used to estimate the dose from large events that occurred during previous solar cycles should be re-evaluated. There has also been a dramatic change in perspective regarding the source of solar protons observed in interplanetary space. Very large fluence events are associated with powerful fast interplanetary shocks. The elemental composition and charge state of these events is suggestive of a dominate source in the solar corona and not from a very hot plasma. Furthermore, there is a strong suggestion that the intensity-time profile observed in space is dominated by the connection of the observer to an interplanetary shock source rather than to a unique location near the surface of the sun. These concepts will be examined from the perspective of energetic particles contributing to the dose experienced by an astronaut on an interplanetary space mission.     

Variation of foF2 with solar activity

Ionospheric hourly monthly-median values of the F2-layer critical frequency, foF2, from six European stations are correlated with the corresponding 12-month running mean values of each of the six solar indices, the Zurich sunspot number R, the solar radio noise flux at 10.7 cm F, the ionospheric index of solar activity IF2, the index IG, the Australian T index and the Russian RS ionospheric index, using various models. The statistical analysis shows that there is no difference in the degree of correlation in using one index over another. Their statistical behaviour is virtually identical. Furthermore, it is shown that there is a slight degree of favourability for a quadratic relation between foF2 and any index of solar activity.     

Modeling of the outer heliosphere with the realistic solar cycle

Time-dependent kinetic-continuum model of the solar wind interaction with the two-component local interstellar cloud (LIC) has been developed recently [Izmodenov, V., Malama, Y.G., Ruderman, M.S. Solar cycle influence on the interaction of the solar wind with local interstellar cloud. Astron. Astrophys. 429, 1069–1080, 2005a.]. Here, we adopted this model to the realistic solar cycle, when the solar wind parameters at the Earth’s orbit are taken from space data. This paper focuses on the results related to the termination shock (TS) excursion with the solar cycle that may help to understand Voyager 1 data obtained at and after the crossing of the termination shock and to predict the time of the TS crossing by Voyager 2.     

Relativistic proton production at the Sun in the 20 January 2005 solar event

Based on the concept of multiple acceleration of solar energetic particles (SEP) we analyzed the super-event of 20 January 2005 by the data of ground level, balloon and spacecraft observations. The main characteristics of relativistic solar protons (energy spectra, anisotropy directions and pitch-angle distributions) are derived and their dynamics during the event is studied. It is shown that the flux of relativistic solar protons may consist of two distinct components, the so-called prompt and delayed ones. Within a two-source model of particle generation, one of which is associated with an expanding magnetic loop, we solved the transport equation in energy phase space, including adiabatic losses simultaneously with the stochastic acceleration process, and calculate the expected spectra of the delayed component at the source. The confrontation of experimental spectra with theoretical ones shows that the delayed component may be correctly described by stochastic acceleration, but not the prompt component. The required acceleration efficiencies turned out to be rather high, so that, for this particular event, adiabatic cooling is practically negligible. Our results provide a new support to the existence of two populations of relativistic solar protons in some SEP events.     

Preliminary forecast for the peak of solar activity cycle 24

Our forecast for the development phase of solar cycle 23 came out to be true; one of the very few to have attained this status out of several forecasts made. We review the details of the forecast and how it fared as the events unfolded in time. We note the present status of IMF intensity B and the planetary index Ap. We draw inferences as to what to expect for the development phase of cycle 24; several forecasts have already been made, they cover all possible scenarios, ranging from a very active to the quietest cycle in a century. Our preliminary forecast for the smoothed sunspot number at cycle 24 maximum is 101 ± 5, indicating that cycle 24 will be about 20% less active than cycle 23; the possibility that next three solar cycles may be progressively less active cannot be ruled out.     

Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

Predicting indices of the ionosphere response to solar activity for the ascending phase of the 25th solar cycle

The international reference ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, models require reliable prediction of solar and ionospheric proxy indices of solar activity for nowcasting and forecasting of the ionosphere parameters. It is shown that IRI prediction errors could increase for the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the peak height hmF2 due to erroneous predictions of the ionospheric global IG index and the international sunspot number SSN1 index on which IRI and IRI-Plas models are built. Regression relation is introduced to produce daily SSN1 proxy index from new time series SSN2 index provided from June 2015, after recalibration of sunspots data. To avoid extra errors of the ionosphere model a new solar activity prediction (SAP) model for the ascending part of the solar cycle SC25 is proposed which expresses analytically the SSN1 proxy index and the 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 index in terms of the phase of the solar cycle, Φ. SAP model is based on monthly indices observed during the descending part of SC24 complemented with forecast of time and amplitude for SC25 peak. The strength of SC25 is predicted to be less than that of SC24 as shown with their amplitudes for eight types of indices driving IRI-Plas model.     

A statistical study of CME-associated flare during the solar cycle 24

We investigate on the relationship between flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in which a flare started before and after the CME events which differ in their physical properties, indicating potentially different initiation mechanisms. The physical properties of two types flare-correlated CME remain an interesting and important question in space weather. We study the relationship between flares and CMEs using a different approach requiring both temporal and spatial constraints during the period from December 1, 2008 to April 30, 2017 in which the CMEs data were acquired by SOHO/LASCO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) over the solar cycle 24. The soft X-ray flare flux data, such as flare class, location, onset time and integrated flux, are collected from Geostationary Environmental satellite (GOES) and XRT Flare catalogs. We selected 307 CMEs-flares pairs applying simultaneously temporal and spatial constraints in all events for the distinguish between two associated CME-flare types. We study the correlated properties of coincident flares and CMEs during this period, specifically separating the sample into two types: flares that precede a CME and flares that follow a CME. We found an opposite correlation relationship between the acceleration and velocity of CMEs in the After- and Before-CMEs events. We found a log-log relation between the width and mass of CMEs in the two associated types. The CMEs and flares properties show that there were significant differences in all physical parameters such as (mass, angular width, kinetic energy, speed and acceleration) between two flare-associated CME types.     

Flight safety implications of the extreme solar proton event of 23 February 1956

There is considerable speculation about the effects at aircraft altitudes resulting from extreme solar proton events. The ground level event (GLE) of 23 February 1956 (GLE 5), remains the largest solar proton event of the neutron monitor era in terms of its influence on count rates at monitors near sea level. During this GLE the count rate was increased by as much as 4760% (15-min average) at the Leeds monitor relative to the count rate from galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). Two modern models of the event cumulative solar proton spectrum for this event, a 6-parameter fit in energy and a 4-parameter Band fit in rigidity, are compared with 1-h of GCR at solar minimum. While effective doses calculated with CARI-7A for both models at low geomagnetic cutoff rigidities are indeed high when compared with GCR and can exceed recommended exposure limits, both GLE spectra exhibit a much stronger dependence on cutoff rigidity than GCR, and a larger fraction of the dose from neutrons. At locations with cutoff rigidities above 4.2 and 6.4?GV, respectively, the GLE effective doses are smaller than the GCR hourly dose. At locations with cutoff rigidities above about 4?GV, GCR was the dominant source of exposure in 10?h or less at all altitudes examined. This suggests that if a similar event occurs in the future, low- and mid-latitude flights at modern jet flight altitudes could be well-protected by Earth’s magnetic field.     

Two intense Forbush decreases of solar activity cycle 22

We study two intense Forbush decreases that occurred during two adjacent SOLTIP (Solar connection of Transient Interplanetary Processes) intervals; namely SOLTIP 1 (22–27 March 1991) and SOLTIP 2 (1–17 June 1991); galactic cosmic ray intensity at the depth of the second Forbush decrease was the lowest ever recorded since continuous monitoring by Climax neutron monitor began in 1951 (58% below the solar minimum value of 1954), indicating extreme conditions in the heliosphere that prevented galactic cosmic rays from reaching the Earth. These decreases were seen propagating in outer heliosphere by the deep space missions Voyagers 1, 2 and Pioneer 10, 11, with suitable time delays. We analyze hourly, pressure corrected, neutron monitor data from the global sites in both hemispheres, and muon telescopes located underground; they respond to 10–300 GV range of the galactic cosmic ray spectrum. This circumstance provides us an ideal opportunity to study the rigidity dependence of the amplitudes of the two Forbush decreases. In both cases the amplitude is found to be a power law in rigidity, with negative exponents.