Long-term temperature trends in the middle stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere

Analysis of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude temperature data at the 30-mbar level over the last 20 years, based on daily hemispheric analyses of radiosonde data, suggests a long-term negative trend of about −0.6 K/decade (between 50 and 60 N), and a negative trend of about −0.24 K/decade when all observations between 10N and 90N are considered, until April 1980. This stratospheric cooling which has been tentatively attributed to the increase of the carbon dioxide amount in the stratosphere is in qualitative agreement at 30 mbar with model calculations of the historical evolution of temperature and chemical composition in the middle atmosphere.The temperature increase detected after April 1980 which is attributed to the increased aerosol load after the volcanic eruptions of Mount St.Helens and E1 Chichon is discussed briefly.A comparison with another trend analysis based on monthly mean values of selected stations is also discussed, and it is shown that this data set is incomplete before the year 1970, because of missing data over the USSR.In summary, the use of carefully analyzed radiosonde data for monitoring temperature trends in the middle stratosphere is strongly advocated.     

冬季西北地区临近空间气象火箭探测数据分析

在获取冬季西北地区一次临近空间气象火箭探测数据后,将火箭探测温度、密度与MSIS00模式和TIMED/SABER卫星数据进行对比,并将火箭探测风场与HWM07模式和MERRA再分析资料进行对比,分析火箭探测温度误差组成,计算各项温度修正量。结果表明:火箭、卫星、MSIS00模式获取的温度和密度随高度整体变化趋势一致;相对于MSIS00模式,火箭和卫星实测数据能够反映出更多的变化细节,且二者在细节上具有较多一致性。火箭实测风场与MERRA的一致性较好,而与HWM07模式差异较大,在平流层中部火箭探测风场明显强于HWM07模式。相对于HWM07模式和MERRA,火箭探测风场能够体现更多细节,在22 km和45 km附近均探测到较强的风切变。在火箭探测温度的各项修正量中,气动加热、温度滞后、支撑结构热传导及测量电流焦耳效应带来的影响较大,该影响整体上随着高度降低而逐渐减小。分析表明,本次气象火箭获取的探测数据是有效可靠的,但在数据处理方法尤其是温度误差修正等方面还需不断迭代完善。      

对流层顶变化对上对流层/下平流层臭氧分布的影响

上对流层和下平流层(UT／LS)，位于8-25km高度之间，是大气中一个很特殊的区域．大部分的臭氧分布在下平流层，在下平流层臭氧的含量发生一个很小的变化，就会对气候和地面的紫外辐射产生很大的影响．而作为气象参数的对流层顶，是充分混合、缺乏臭氧的上对流层和层结稳定、臭氧丰富的下平流层之间的边界或过渡层，其变化对臭氧总量和分布有直接和明显的影响．本文使用二维模式模拟研究对流层顶变化对臭氧在UT／LS分布的影响．模拟结果表明对流层顶的季节变化对UT/LS的臭氧分布有明显的影响，臭氧的局地变化可以超过10％在冬季北半球中纬度对流层顶高度升高1km时，模式结果表明对臭氧分布的影响比较显著，局地变化可超过6％，但是对臭氧总量的影响较小，变化不超过5DU，小于观测资料统计分析的结果。     

Detection of long-term trends in global stratospheric temperature from NMC analyses derived from NOAA satellite data

Since 24 September 1978 global daily fields of temperature and geopotential height at 8 stratospheric pressure levels 70 to 0.4 mb (18–55 km) have been produced at the U.S. National Meteorological Center. Temperature profiles derived from NOAA operational satellites constitute the sole data source for the upper stratospheric levels 5, 2, 1, and 0.4 mb (35, 42, 48 and 55 km). Significant changes in upper stratosphere reported temperatures have accompanied each of the eight changes in either operational satellite or method of data processing. Comparisons with rocketsonde data from 1978 to 1986 show bias changes of 1 to 5 Celsius degrees at various levels. For detecting long term trends of ambient stratospheric temperature, adjustments based on rocket comparisons must be applied to the NMC fields. Lack of data at north polar latitudes and in the southern hemisphere limits comprehensive characterization of temperature uncertainty. We discuss in detail our ability to characterize temperature uncertainty of the NMC stratospheric analyses. We specifically discuss our ability to detect a trend in the middle stratosphere temperature of about 1.5 celsius degrees per decade, the amount of change indicated likely by current theoretical models.     

Air depression over south pole during Antarctic spring and its possible influence on ozone content in this region

Air depression during Antarctic spring, its long-term behaviour and connection with ozone content has been investigated on base of rocket data for polar regions and total ozone data sets for South pole (TOMS data) for 1979–1990. It was shown, that air pressure depression near South polar region in September in the lower stratosphere has a visible (about 5% per decade) negative trend similar to the tendency which total ozone records reveal. Rather high correlation (+0.82) between air pressure in the stratosphere and total ozone content for spring in Antarctica was found.     

地形对低平流层突然增温的可能影响

本文用Nimbus7 SAM卫星观测的温度资料,分析了突然增温事例中地面地形不同的四个子午圈剖面内的温度分布及变化过程。结果表明,高山地区、平原和海面上空的行星波加热和低平流层突然增温有很大的差别。地形的影响是明显的。      

Decadal variability of tropical Pacific temperature in relation to solar cycles

We use the 8-year long satellite temperature data (2002–2010) from Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) and Atmospheric Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on the Aqua satellite to identify temperature trends in the troposphere and low stratosphere over the Niño 3.4 region of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the most recent 11-year solar cycle. Employing more extended sea surface temperature (SST) data for five solar cycles (1950–2009) in this region we show that the satellite trends reflect a typical decrease of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Niño 3.4 region in the declining phase of the solar cycle. The magnitude of the SST decrease depends on the solar cycle and ranges between 0.07 K/yr and 0.27 K/yr for the last five solar cycles.     

Temperature and pressure variability in mid-latitude low atmosphere and stratosphere-ionosphere coupling

This study presents the continuation of our previous analysis of variations of atmospheric and space weather parameters above Iberian Peninsula along two years near the 24th solar cycle maximum. In the previous paper (Morozova et al., 2017) we mainly discussed the first mode of principal component analysis of tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature and pressure fields, which was shown to be correlated with lower stratospheric ozone and anti-correlated with cosmic ray flux. Now we extend the investigation to the second mode, which suggests a coupling between the stratosphere and the ionosphere.This second mode, located in the low and middle stratosphere (and explaining ~7% of temperature and ~3% of geopotential height variations), showed to be statistically significantly correlated with variations of the middle stratosphere ozone content and anti-correlated with variations of ionospheric total electron content. Similar co-variability of these stratospheric and ionospheric parameters was also obtained with the wavelet cross-coherence analysis.To investigate the role of atmospheric circulation dynamics and the causal nature of the found correlations, we applied the convergent cross mapping (CCM) analysis to our series. Strong evidence for the stratosphere-ionosphere coupling were obtained for the winter 2012–2013 that is characterized by the easterly QBO phase (quasi-biennial oscillations of the direction of the stratospheric zonal winds) and a strong SSW (sudden stratospheric warming event). Further analysis (for the three-year time interval 2012–2015) hint that SSWs events play main role in emphasizing the stratosphere-ionosphere coupling.     

基于改进CO-RS的平流层飞艇总体设计与优化

为改进响应面协同优化(CO-RS,Collaborative Optimization based on Response Surface)方法的工程实用性,提出改进的CO-RS方法.在响应面建立中应用广义乘子法和信赖域法,取消响应面更新对梯度的依赖性.针对平流层飞艇的总体设计与优化问题,基于改进的CO-RS框架,进行了系统任务分析和学科耦合分析.对气动与推进子系统、结构子系统和能源子系统进行了学科分析,以最小化平流层飞艇的质量为目标,建立基于改进CO-RS框架的多学科设计优化(MDO,Multidisciplinary Design Optimization)模型和相应的学科分析模型.利用iSIGHT软件搭建求解平台,采用改进的CO-RS算法进行仿真计算,并得到合理结果,验证了所建立的MDO模型的合理性和改进的CO-RS算法在平流层飞艇总体设计优化中的有效性.     

Observations of a quasi-90-day oscillation in the MLT winds and tides over an equatorial station using meteor radar winds

An evident signature of a least studied quasi-90-day oscillation is found in the winds and tides in the MLT from an equatorial station, São João do Cariri (7.4°S, 36.5°W). The oscillation is found to appear mainly in certain intervals with small but appreciable seasonal (fourth harmonic of annual oscillation) contribution. The maximum amplitude of the oscillation is found to be around 10 m/s in the zonal wind. The enhancement peak of the oscillation exhibits downward movement indicating a plausible role of upward moving waves/tides in carrying its imprint from below to the MLT. Similar oscillation feature in the tropospheric zonal wind and ozone may imply its lower atmospheric origin as a component of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) that moves upward by modulating the tides. Subsequently, the propagating tides (mainly semidiurnal) are enhanced by the ozone in the stratosphere through absorption of solar UV radiation and finally manifest the oscillation in the MLT. Consistency of the present findings with the past investigations are observed in some aspects of the oscillation, whereas existing mismatches in others are believed to be due to geophysical variability depending on space and time among various locations on the globe.     

Variations of mesopause temperatures in Europe

Mesopause temperatures were derived from ground measurements of the near infrared OH1 spectrum. Preliminary data are presented. Seasonal variations at Wuppertal (51° N, 7° E) are well represented if the Cole and Kantor (1978) model [1] is raised by 10 K and shifted by about 18 days. Latitudinal variations from 68° N to 51° N are found much smaller than the model variations. During a stratospheric warming, mesopause and stratosphere temperatures were found to be in anticorrelation only if a substantial longitudinal shift is introduced.     

Intercomparisons of temperature,density and wind measurements from in situ and satellite techniques

Intercomparisons between satellite retrieved temperatures (TIROS N series) and those derived from radiosonde and rocketsonde profiles have been made covering the years 1980–1984. Differences in the measurement parameters between 100 and 0.4 mbar (～16–55 km) are described; generally radiosonde/satellite differences are less than 1°K, while rocketsonde/satellite differences reach 7–8°K in the upper stratosphere. Comparisons between the various $\text{in situ}$ devices indicate that radiosonde/rocketsonde differrences are less than 1°K while precision studies of the rocketsonde instrument find that the rocketsonde measurements are internally consistent to less than 1°K up to 50 km and to less than 3°K to 60 km. Density data obtained with the small rocketsondes ($\text{in situ}$ thermistors and inflatable spheres) and with the large sounding rocket systems show that density measurements usually agree to within 15 percent up to 85 km. Comparisons of the various atmospheric parameters obtained from different instruments are important, however the usefulness of intermixing the measurements is obvious and increased emphasis should be placed on procedures for intermingling such data. Suggestions are made on how this might be accomplished.     

Stratospheric flights with large polyethylene baloons from equatorial latitudes

Starting with average 50% success for stratospheric balloon flights during 1959–1969 and attaining 100% success during 1972–1973, the success record dropped to 50% during 1974–1979. Through a critical analysis of 59 flights made from Hyderabad and 21 flights made from other equatorial bases, revised design criteria were proposed for balloons to be flown from equatorial latitudes, which were accepted by M/s Winzen International, Inc. (WII), U.S.A. and have again raised the success record to 93% for 15 flights made since April 1980. A revised analysis for 71 flights made from 1965 to 1984 has been presented. Stratospheric circulation over Hyderabad indicating predominance of easterlies with mesospheric westerlies descending occasionally into stratosphere has been discussed.     

Measurements of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere during tropical cyclones using the GPS radio occultation technique

Water vapour transport to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere by deep convective storms affects the radiation balance of the atmosphere and has been proposed as an important component of climate change. The aim of the work presented here is to understand if the GPS radio occultation technique is useful for characterization of this process. Our assessment addresses the question if severe storms leave a significant signature in radio occultation profiles in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere. Radio occultation data from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) were analyzed, focusing on two particular tropical cyclones with completely different characteristics, the hurricane Bertha, which formed in the Atlantic Basin during July 2008 and reached a maximum intensity of Category 3, and the typhoon Hondo, which formed in the south Indian Ocean during 2008 reaching a maximum intensity of Category 4. The result is positive, suggesting that the bending angle of a GPS radio occultation signal contains interesting information on the atmosphere around the tropopause, but not any information regarding the water vapour. The maximum percentage anomaly of bending angle between 14 and 18 km of altitude during tropical cyclones is typically larger than the annual mean by 5–15% and it can reach 20% for extreme cases. The results are discussed in connection to the GPS radio occultation receiver which will be part of the Atomic Clock Ensemble in Space (ACES) payload on the International Space Station.     

Strategy for early detection of climatic change

A general strategy for detection of climatic changes of stratospheric temperatures is discussed in the light of expected short-term and long-term natural and spurious (instrumentally-induced) variability. The effects of the brevity of both the radiosonde record and the satellite sounding record are stressed, and the need is emphasised for homogeneous time-series from satellites as well as from sondes.The general principles are illustrated by means of an attempt to detect climatic changes in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using radiosonde data for approximately the past 25 years. It is shown that, even in the absence of instrumental shortcomings, a further 35 years of radiosonde data, or 20–25 years of satellite sounding data, are needed for detection of temperature trends of the size indicated by global circulation models for the present rate of increase of concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide.     

基于WACCM+DART的临近空间SABER和MLS温度观测资料同化试验

基于WACCM+DART（Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model,Data Assimilation Research Test-Bed）临近空间资料同化预报系统,以2016年2月的一次平流层爆发性增温（SSW）事件为例,开展了临近空间SABER（Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry）和MLS（Microwave Limb Sounder）温度观测资料集合滤波同化试验.结果表明:同化SABER和MLS温度观测资料可显著降低WACCM模式在中间层和平流层中上部（0.001～10hPa）大气温度场的预报误差,改善CR试验在SSW发生时中间层变冷现象偏强、纬向风场首次发生反转的层次偏低以及增温恢复阶段0.1～10hPa的东风层提前消退、纬向风速偏大、平流层顶位置偏高等现象.基于ERA5（The Fifth Generation of ECMWF Reanalyses）再分析资料的检验表明:同化SABER和MLS温度资料明显有利于减小北半球高纬度地区（60°-90°N）平流层中上层和下中间层（0.1～14hPa）纬向风场以及平流层和中间层中下层（0.01～100hPa）温度场的分析误差;同化低层大气观测也有利于减小0.1～14hPa纬向风场和0.01～100hPa温度场的分析误差,但是不如同化SABER和MLS温度资料对临近空间纬向风场和温度场分析误差的改善效果显著.      

Assessment of the ozone and temperature variability during 1979–1993 with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL

The chemistry-climate model SOCOL has been applied for the study of ozone and temperature anomalies during 1979–1993. Temperature and ozone anomalies have been obtained for a set of model runs forced by all major stratospheric forcing mechanisms. Forcings have been prescribed separately and together to assess their individual influence on stratospheric ozone and temperature. The results of these simulations have been compared to available satellite data. The model captures well ozone depletion and cooling in the upper stratosphere due to increases in the abundance of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere. In the lower stratosphere, the model reproduces the warming over tropical and middle latitudes caused by the El-Chichon and Pinatubo eruptions. However, the simulated ozone response is overestimated in comparison with SAGE data. The best agreement with observations has been obtained for the run with all forcings included. This emphasizes the importance of the volcanic and solar forcings for the correct reproduction of observed trends. Comparison of near-global total ozone anomalies confirms an overestimation of ozone depletion just after volcanic eruptions, while the overall agreement with the model is fairly good.     

North–South asymmetry in cosmic ray fluxes as measured in the stratosphere and in selected solar wind parameters in the near-Earth space

North–South asymmetry in the cosmic ray fluxes as resulted from the long-term balloon measurements in the northern and southern polar stratosphere does not agree with that found from the neutron monitor data. In order to reveal possible sources of the observed asymmetry, selected interplanetary parameters were examined. North–South asymmetry relative to the heliospheric neutral sheet was considered for solar wind velocity, plasma density and some other solar plasma parameters. It is shown that North–South asymmetry of the solar wind velocity and plasma density depends on the Earth’s heliolatitude and the phase of the 11-year solar activity cycle. This may be relevant to the results of cosmic ray measurements in the stratosphere.     

Variability of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere observed with GPS radio occultation bending angles and temperatures

Recently, Lewis (2009) introduced a new method for the identification of tropopause heights (TPHs) from GPS radio occultation (RO) bending angles (α)$(\alpha )$. The method uses a covariance transform to identify transitions in a ln(α)$\mathit{ln}(\alpha )$ profile. Lewis validates the results with lapse rate tropopause (LRT) heights from one year of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC data and radiosondes. In this study we apply the new method to the RO data sets from CHAMP/GRACE (2001–2009) and FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (2006–2009). These results are the basis for TPH trend estimations for the time period between May 2001 and August 2009 (100 months) based on zonal monthly mean GPS RO data from CHAMP (2001–2008), GRACE (since 2006) and FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (since 2006). Further, we compare the α$\alpha$ based TPH trends with LRT height trends and discuss the differences, which are largest in the subtropical regions (20°–40°) on both the northern and southern hemisphere. A global increase of the TPH between 5 and 9 m/yr is found for both methods and different data sets (CHAMP/GRACE alone and CHAMP/GRACE plus FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC). The results for the TPH trends are linked with bending angle and temperature trends in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region. Generally, an upper tropospheric warming (bending angle decrease) and a lower stratospheric cooling (bending angle increase) is noted.     

Calibration errors in determining slant Total Electron Content (TEC) from multi-GNSS data

The global navigation satellite system (GNSS) is presently a powerful tool for sensing the Earth's ionosphere. For this purpose, the ionospheric measurements (IMs), which are by definition slant total electron content biased by satellite and receiver differential code biases (DCBs), need to be first extracted from GNSS data and then used as inputs for further ionospheric representations such as tomography. By using the customary phase-to-code leveling procedure, this research comparatively evaluates the calibration errors on experimental IMs obtained from three GNSS, namely the US Global Positioning System (GPS), the Chinese BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS), and the European Galileo. On the basis of ten days of dual-frequency, triple-GNSS observations collected from eight co-located ground receivers that independently form short-baselines and zero-baselines, the IMs are determined for each receiver for all tracked satellites and then for each satellite differenced for each baseline to evaluate their calibration errors. As first derived from the short-baseline analysis, the effects of calibration errors on IMs range, in total electron content units, from 1.58 to 2.16, 0.70 to 1.87, and 1.13 to 1.56 for GPS, Galileo, and BDS, respectively. Additionally, for short-baseline experiment, it is shown that the code multipath effect accounts for their main budget. Sidereal periodicity is found in single-differenced (SD) IMs for GPS and BDS geostationary satellites, and the correlation of SD IMs over two consecutive days achieves the maximum value when the time tag is around 4?min. Moreover, as byproducts of zero-baseline analysis, daily between-receiver DCBs for GPS are subject to more significant intra-day variations than those for BDS and Galileo.