Research needed to improve solar flare and particle forecasting.

We briefly review the status of our physical understanding of energy buildup and release in transient active phenomena on the Sun. Such understanding is necessary in order to improve our capabilities to predict such events and their effects in interplanetary space and near-Earth environment. We then discuss the research that we consider is needed for such improvement.     

Magnetic reconnection configurations and particle acceleration in solar flares

Numerical simulations of two types of flares indicate that magnetic reconnection can provide environments favorable for various particle acceleration mechanisms to work. This paper reviews recent test particle simulations of DC electric field mechanism, and discusses how the flare particles can escape into the interplanetary space under different magnetic configurations.     

Numerical study of solar flare particle propagation in the heliosphere

Numerical solutions are presented for the propagation of solar cosmic rays interplanetary space, including the effects of pitch-angle scattering and adiabatic focusing. The intensity-time profiles can be well fitted by a simple radial spatial diffusion equation with scattering mean-free path λ_fit. For low-rigidity particles the radial mean-free path so obtained is significantly larger than the mean-free path calculated from the scattering coefficient due to the inapplicability of the diffusive approximation early in the event. The well-known discrepency between λ_fit and the theoretical predictions may be resolved by these calculations.     

Origin of coronal and interplanetary shock and particle acceleration of a flare/CME event

By using radio data from ground-based telescopes (from 270 MHz to 25 MHz), and from the Radio and Plasma Wave experiment (WAVES) on board the WIND spacecraft (1–14 MHz and several kHz-11 MHz), as well as FY -2 satellite data, the origin of coronal and interplanetary shock and particle acceleration of the 14 July 2000 flare/CME event (the Bastille day event) have been studied. Main conclusions are as follows: (1) We investigate the causal relationship between metric type 11 bursts observed by the digital IZMIRAN radio spectrograph and type II radio emissions in the frequency range from 1–14 MHz and several kHz-11 MHz observed by the WAVES/WIND. The analysis indicate that the fast CME is the origin of both coronal and interplanetary shocks. (2)According to the time profiles of Hard X-ray, and energetic particles (include proton, ³He, and ⁴He) from FY-2 satellite, it is obvious that the Bastille day event is the event, in which both impulsive and gradual phenomena occur. The energetic particles accelerated not only in flare but also in CME.     

Long lasting energetic particle injection from a weak flare

A relatively weak solar cosmic ray event registered at the Earth orbit following the flare of December 17, 1976 is discussed. The main feature of the event is the existence of a prolonged unusually high proton and electron anisotropy; even at the end of the decay phase of the flare the motion of the particles were mainly directed away from the Sun. The durations of proton and electron anisotropies were different. If prolonged particle injection is neglected the value of the anisotropy considerable exceeds all diffusive estimates. Time-intensity and anisotropy profiles of electrons and protons are fitted by a diffusive model including prolonged particle injection at the Sun. The best agreement with the data is obtained if the duration of injection equals about 20 and 7 hours for protons and electrons, respectively.     

Modeling the time-intensity profile of solar flare generated particle fluxes in the inner heliosphere.

It is possible to model the time-intensity profile of solar particles expected in space after the occurrence of a significant solar flare on the sun. After the particles are accelerated in the flare process, if conditions are favorable, they may be released into the solar corona and then into space. The heliolongitudinal gradients observed in the inner heliosphere are extremely variable, reflecting the major magnetic structures in the solar corona which extend into space. These magnetic structures control the particle gradients in the inner heliosphere. The most extensive solar particle measurements are those observed by earth-orbiting spacecraft, and forecast and prediction procedures are best for the position of the earth. There is no consensus of how to extend the earth-based models to other locations in space. Local interplanetary conditions and structures exert considerable influence on the time-intensity profiles observed. The interplanetary shock may either reduce or enhance the particle intensity observed at a specific point in space and the observed effects are very dependent on energy.     

Solar flare electron acceleration: Comparing theories and observations

A popular scenario for electron acceleration in solar flares is transit-time damping of low-frequency MHD waves excited by reconnection and its outflows. The scenario requires several processes in sequence to yield energetic electrons of the observed large number. Until now there was very little evidence for this scenario, as it is even not clear where the flare energy is released. RHESSI measurements of bremsstrahlung by non-thermal flare electrons yield energy estimates as well as the position where the energy is deposited. Thus quantitative measurements can be put into the frame of the global magnetic field configuration as seen in coronal EUV line observations. We present RHESSI observations combined with TRACE data that suggest primary energy inputs mostly into electron acceleration and to a minor fraction into coronal heating and primary motion. The more sensitive and lower energy X-ray observations by RHESSI have found also small events (C class) at the time of the acceleration of electron beams exciting meter wave Type III bursts. However, not all RHESSI flares involve Type III radio emissions. The association of other decimeter radio emissions, such as narrowband spikes and pulsations, with X-rays is summarized in view of electron acceleration.     

Physics of ion acceleration in the solar flare on 2005 September 7 determines γ-ray and neutron production

Relativistic neutrons were observed by the neutron monitors at Mt. Chacaltaya and Mexico City and by the solar neutron telescopes at Chacaltaya and Mt. Sierra Negra in association with an X17.0 flare on 2005 September 7. The neutron signal continued for more than 20 min with high statistical significance. Intense emissions of γ-rays were also registered by INTEGRAL, and during the decay phase by RHESSI. We analyzed these data using the solar-flare magnetic-loop transport and interaction model of Hua et al. [Hua, X.-M., Kozlovsky, B., Lingenfelter, R.E. et al. Angular and energy-dependent neutron emission from solar flare magnetic loops, Astrophys. J. Suppl. Ser. 140, 563–579, 2002], and found that the model could successfully fit the data with intermediate values of loop magnetic convergence and pitch-angle scattering parameters. These results indicate that solar neutrons were produced at the same time as the γ-ray line emission and that ions were continuously accelerated at the emission site.     

Gamma-ray measurements from the space shuttle during a solar flare.

An X2/2B level solar flare occurred on 12 August, 1989, during the last day of the flight of the Space Shuttle Columbia (STS-28). Detectors on the GOES 7 satellite observed increased X-ray fluxes at approximately 1400 GMT and a solar particle event (SPE) at approximately 1600 GMT. Measurements with the bismuth germanate (BGO) detector of the Shuttle Activation Monitor (SAM) experiment on STS-28 showed factors of two to three increases in count rates at high latitudes comparable to those seen during South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) passages beginning at about 1100 GMT. That increased activity was observed at both north and south high latitudes in the 57 degrees, 300 kilometer orbit and continued until the detector was turned off at 1800 GMT. Measurements made earlier in the flight over the same geographic coordinates did not produce the same levels of activity. This increase in activity may not be entirely accounted for by observed geomagnetic phenomena which were not related to the solar flare.     

The homologous flare sites and the general solar activity

The homologous flares observed in the same region of a spotgroup testify the existence and the duration of a permanent instability. However, they also attest that the general magnetic configuration is not destroyed by these flares and that it changes $\text{slowly}$ up to the death of the site.The study of every flaring sites where more than ten flares occur has been performed in Meudon for the 1974–1980 period.One hundred and sixty-six sites have been analysed from the rotation where the A.R. is observed up to five rotations ahead. The basis of the study are the “Synoptic Maps”. A relation is found between the presence of crossing of “filament-phantom” corridors and the location of the homologous flare sites.¹     

An experiment to study solar flare effects on radio-communication signals

The occurrence of radio signal fading events caused by ionospheric absorption plays an important role in the performance of radio-communication systems. It is necessary to know the magnitude and time-scale of such events in order to specify technical parameters of the communication system to be used. Generally, fading events are associated with solar flares, which are characterized by sudden increase in the solar X-ray flux that causes an increase in the ionization in the lower ionosphere. The abrupt increase of ionization causes the absorption of radio waves propagating in the Earth–ionosphere wave-guide and is reported as radio signal fading events. A simple experiment to monitor the behavior of lower ionosphere has been carried out at the Southern Space Observatory-SSO/INPE (29.43°S, 53.8°W), located in southern Brazil. The experiment is basically a computer controlled radio receiver that records the received signal strength of Amplitude Modulated (AM) radio signals in the HF (High Frequencies) range. We analyzed data of the 6 MHz beacon signal that has been transmitted by a broadcasting radio station located about 400 km from the observation site. In this work we present initial results of daily variation of the received signal strength and fading events associated with solar flares observed in the 6 MHz signal monitored by the experiment during 2001. X-ray solar flux data from the GOES-8 satellite were used to identify X-ray solar bursts associated with solar flares. Based on the one-year data collected by the experiment, a statistical summary of fading occurrences and their correlation with solar flares, as well as the distributions of time-scales and magnitudes of such events are presented.     

Correlation between solar flare productivity and photospheric vector magnetic fields

Studying the statistical correlation between the solar flare productivity and photospheric magnetic fields is very important and necessary. It is helpful to set up a practical flare forecast model based on magnetic properties and improve the physical understanding of solar flare eruptions. In the previous study ([Cui, Y.M., Li, R., Zhang, L.Y., He, Y.L., Wang, H.N. Correlation between solar flare productivity and photospheric magnetic field properties 1. Maximum horizontal gradient, length of neutral line, number of singular points. Sol. Phys. 237, 45–59, 2006]; from now on we refer to this paper as ‘Paper I’), three measures of the maximum horizontal gradient, the length of the neutral line, and the number of singular points are computed from 23990 SOHO/MDI longitudinal magnetograms. The statistical relationship between the solar flare productivity and these three measures is well fitted with sigmoid functions. In the current work, the three measures of the length of strong-shear neutral line, total unsigned current, and total unsigned current helicity are computed from 1353 vector magnetograms observed at Huairou Solar Observing Station. The relationship between the solar flare productivity and the current three measures can also be well fitted with sigmoid functions. These results are expected to be beneficial to future operational flare forecasting models.     

On soft electron beams in solar active and flare region

On the basis of the experimental data obtained from the high resolution X-ray spectra for solar flares and active regions the Suprathermal electron model (SEM) was proposed. This model suggests the existance of the multitemperature structure of the solar plasma emitting Fe and Ca X-rays and the presence of additional electrons with low energies E ? 10 keV and small densities ～ 1–5% relative to the thermal component.     

Analysis of radiation risk from alpha particle component of solar particle events.

The solar particle events (SPE) will contain a primary alpha particle component, representing a possible increase in the potential risk to astronauts during an SPE over the often studied proton component. We discuss the physical interactions of alpha particles important in describing the transport of these particles through spacecraft and body shielding. Models of light ion reactions are presented and their effects on energy and linear energy transfer (LET) spectra in shielding discussed. We present predictions of particle spectra, dose, and dose equivalent in organs of interest for SPE spectra typical of those occurring in recent solar cycles. The large events of solar cycle 19 are found to have substantial increase in biological risk from alpha particles, including a large increase in secondary neutron production from alpha particle breakup.     

Comparison of the transport codes HZETRN,HETC and FLUKA for a solar particle event

The protection of astronauts and instrumentation from galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events is one of the primary constraints associated with mission planning in low earth orbit or deep space. To help satisfy this constraint, several computational tools have been developed to analyze the effectiveness of various shielding materials and structures exposed to space radiation. These tools are now being carefully scrutinized through a systematic effort of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification. In this benchmark study, the deterministic transport code HZETRN is compared to the Monte Carlo transport codes HETC-HEDS and FLUKA for a 30 g/cm² water target protected by a 20 g/cm² aluminum shield exposed to a parameterization of the February 1956 solar particle event. Neutron and proton fluences as well as dose and dose equivalent are compared at various depths in the water target. The regions of agreement and disagreement between the three codes are quantified and discussed, and recommendations for future work are given.     

The multi-wavelength study of the effect of energetic particle beams on the chromospheric emission in the 25th July 2004 solar flare

We present the multi-wavelength study of short-term variations of Hα line emission located in multiple kernels on the both sides from magnetic neutral line in the 25th July 2004 solar flare observed by VTT (Tenerife). The HXR and Hα emission in the kernels 1 and 3 is close spatially and temporally while in kernels 4 and 7 there is only delayed Hα emission observed tens seconds after HXR in the kernels 1 and 3. The locations of Hα kernels 1, 3, 4 and 7 are on the opposite sides from the magnetic neutral line. The temporal variations of Hα emission in kernels 1 and 3 coincide within 5 s with the HXR photon emission. The latter is found to have double power law photon spectra, which were corrected to a single power law with the turning point technique accounting for Ohmic losses and collisions. The Hα emission is fit by full non-LTE simulations in an atmosphere heated by an electron beam with the parameters derived from the HXR emission. The combination of radiative, thermal and non-thermal mechanisms of excitation and ionization of hydrogen atoms is considered. The temporal evolution of simulated Hα emission in the kernel 3 fits rather well the two observed intensity increases: the first at the flare onset (13:38:39–13:39:30 UT) caused by pure non-thermal excitation by beam electrons and the second one appearing after 13:40:00 UT because of a hydrodynamic heating. The observed close temporal correlation or delay of Hα emission with HXR emission points out to the precipitation either of electron (kernels 1 and 3) or protons (4 and 7).     

Current-driven plasma instabilities and auroral-type particle acceleration at Venus

Above the ionosphere of Venus, several instruments on the Pioneer Orbiter detect correlated wave, field and particle phenomena suggestive of current-driven anomalous resistivity and auroral-type particle acceleration. In localized regions the plasma wave instrument measures intense mid-frequency turbulence levels together with strong field-aligned currents. Here the local parameters indicate that there is marginal stability for ion acoustic waves, and the electron temperature probe finds evidence that energetic primaries are present. This suggests an auroral-type energy deposition into the upper atmosphere of Venus. These results appear to be consistent with the direct measurements of auroral emissions from the Pioneer-Venus ultraviolet imaging spectrometer.     

Application of support vector machine combined with K-nearest neighbors in solar flare and solar proton events forecasting

The support vector machine (SVM) combined with K-nearest neighbors (KNN), called the SVM-KNN method, is new classing algorithm that take the advantages of the SVM and KNN. This method is applied to the forecasting models for solar flares and proton events. For the solar flare forecasting model, the sunspot area, the sunspot magnetic class, and the McIntosh class of sunspot group and 10 cm solar radio flux are chosen as inputs; for the solar proton event forecasting model, the inputs include the longitude of active regions, the flux of soft X-ray, and those for the solar flare forecasting model. Detailed tests are implemented for both of the proposed forecasting models, in which the SVM-KNN and the SVM methods are compared. The testing results demonstrate that the SVM-KNN method provide a higher forecasting accuracy in contrast to the SVM. It also gives an increased rate of ‘Low’ prediction at the same time. The ‘Low’ prediction means occurrence of solar flares or proton events with predictions of non-occurrence. This method show promise for forecasting models of solar flare and proton events.     

The influence of in situ pitch-angle cosine coverage on the derivation of solar energetic particle injection and interplanetary transport conditions

Modelization of solar energetic particle (SEP) events aims at revealing the general scenario of SEP injection and interplanetary propagation and relies on in situ measurements of SEP distributions. In this paper, we study to what extent the LEFS60 and LEMS30 electron telescopes of the Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAM) on board the Advanced Composition Explorer are able to scan pitch-angle distributions during near-relativistic electron events. We estimate the percentage of the pitch-angle cosine range scanned by both telescopes for a given magnetic field configuration. We obtain that the pitch-angle coverage is always higher for LEFS60 than for LEMS30. Therefore, LEFS60 provides more information of the directional distribution of the observed particles. The aim of the paper is to study the relevance of the coverage when fitting LEFS60 particle measurements in order to infer the solar injection and the interplanetary transport conditions. By studying synthetic electron events, we obtain that at least 70% of the pitch-angle cosine range needs to be scanned by the telescope. Otherwise, multiple scenarios can explain the data.     

Multi-wavelength study of a strong impulsive solar limb flare on 2002 August 3

We made a detailed study of the impulsive solar flare of GOES class X1.0 which occurred near the west limb on 2002 August 3, peak time 19:07 UT. There is particularly good data coverage of this event, with simultaneous observations in EUV, soft and hard X-rays available. We used TRACE 171 Å images to study the morphology and evolution of this event. Soft X-ray spectra in the wavelength range 3.34–6.05 Å measured by the RESIK Bragg crystal spectrometer on CORONAS-F were used for determination of the evolution of the flare plasma temperature. Data from the RHESSI instrument were used to investigate properties of the higher-temperature plasma during the flare.