Project “The Moon – 2012+”: Spin-orbital evolution,geophysics and selenodesy of the Moon

The Russian scientific project “The Moon – 2012+” is directed at solving fundamental problems of celestial mechanics, selenodesy and geophysics of the Moon through the pursuance of theoretical research and computer simulations of the following fields.     

Prospects in the orbital and rotational dynamics of the Moon with the advent of sub-centimeter lunar laser ranging

Lunar laser ranging (LLR) measurements are crucial for advanced exploration of the laws of fundamental gravitational physics and geophysics as well as for future human and robotic missions to the Moon. The corner-cube reflectors (CCR) currently on the Moon require no power and still work perfectly since their installation during the project Apollo era. Current LLR technology allows us to measure distances to the Moon with a precision approaching 1 mm. As NASA pursues the vision of taking humans back to the Moon, new, more precise laser ranging applications will be demanded, including continuous tracking from more sites on Earth, placing new CCR arrays on the Moon, and possibly installing other devices such as transponders, etc. for multiple scientific and technical purposes. Since this effort involves humans in space, then in all situations the accuracy, fidelity, and robustness of the measurements, their adequate interpretation, and any products based on them, are of utmost importance. Successful achievement of this goal strongly demands further significant improvement of the theoretical model of the orbital and rotational dynamics of the Earth–Moon system. This model should inevitably be based on the theory of general relativity, fully incorporate the relevant geophysical processes, lunar librations, tides, and should rely upon the most recent standards and recommendations of the IAU for data analysis. This paper discusses methods and problems in developing such a mathematical model. The model will take into account all the classical and relativistic effects in the orbital and rotational motion of the Moon and Earth at the sub-centimeter level. The model is supposed to be implemented as a part of the computer code underlying NASA Goddard’s orbital analysis and geophysical parameter estimation package GEODYN and the ephemeris package PMOE 2003 of the Purple Mountain Observatory. The new model will allow us to navigate a spacecraft precisely to a location on the Moon. It will also greatly improve our understanding of the structure of the lunar interior and the nature of the physical interaction at the core–mantle interface layer. The new theory and upcoming millimeter LLR will give us the means to perform one of the most precise fundamental tests of general relativity in the solar system.     

极月轨道上太阳电池阵外热流规律分析

准确的月球表面温度分布模型对于开展月球探测具有重要意义. 目前有关月球表面温 度模型还缺乏对完整月球表面温度分布的计算方法研究. 本文建立了一套计算完整月球表面温度的方法, 其中月球阳面温度采用Racca模型直接计算得到; 对于月球阴面, 将其沿纬度方向划分为若干区域, 每个区域的地表土壤采用一维非稳态热传导模型, 根据嫦娥三号着陆器太阳电池阵在轨环月阶段的温度数据, 修正得到月球表面土壤导热系数、密度及比热容, 通过数值计算求解一维非稳态热传导方程, 得出任意时刻月球阴面表面温度随时间的变化. 嫦娥三号着陆器太阳电池阵环月阶段热分析结果与在轨温度符合较好, 初步说明本文建立的完整月球表面温度计算方法正确可行. 基于本文方法计算得到整个月球表面温度分布, 进一步研究了极月轨道太阳电池阵外热流变化规律.     

IDS contribution to ITRF2008

For the first time, the International DORIS Service (IDS) has produced a technique level combination based on the contributions of seven analysis centers (ACs), including the European Space Operations Center (ESOC), Geodetic Observatory Pecny (GOP), Geoscience Australia (GAU), the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the Institut Géographique National (IGN), the Institute of Astronomy, Russian Academy of Sciences (INASAN, named as INA), and CNES/CLS (named as LCA). The ACs used five different software packages to process the DORIS data from 1992 to 2008, including NAPEOS (ESA), Bernese (GOP), GEODYN (GAU, GSC), GIPSY/OASIS (INA), and GINS (LCA). The data from seven DORIS satellites, TOPEX/Poseidon, SPOT-2, SPOT-3, SPOT-4, SPOT-5, Envisat and Jason-1 were processed and all the analysis centers produced weekly SINEX files in either variance–covariance or normal equation format. The processing by the analysis centers used the latest GRACE-derived gravity models, forward modelling of atmospheric gravity, updates to the radiation pressure modelling to improve the DORIS geocenter solutions, denser parameterization of empirically determined drag coefficients to improve station and EOP solutions, especially near the solar maximum in 2001–2002, updated troposphere mapping functions, and an ITRF2005-derived station set for orbit determination, DPOD2005. The CATREF software was used to process the weekly AC solutions, and produce three iterations of an IDS global weekly combination. Between the development of the initial solution IDS-1, and the final solution, IDS-3, the ACs improved their analysis strategies and submitted updated solutions to eliminate troposphere-derived biases in the solution scale, to reduce drag-related degradations in station positioning, and to refine the estimation strategy to improve the combination geocenter solution. An analysis of the frequency content of the individual AC geocenter and scale solutions was used as the basis to define the scale and geocenter of the IDS-3 combination. The final IDS-3 combination has an internal position consistency (WRMS) that is 15 to 20 mm before 2002 and 8 to 10 mm after 2002, when 4 or 5 satellites contribute to the weekly solutions. The final IDS-3 combination includes solutions for 130 DORIS stations on 67 different sites of which 35 have occupations over 16 years (1993.0–2009.0). The EOPs from the IDS-3 combination were compared with the IERS 05 C04 time series and the RMS agreement was 0.24 mas and 0.35 mas for the X and Y components of polar motion. The comparison to ITRF2005 in station position shows an agreement of 6 to 8 mm RMS in horizontal and 10.3 mm in height. The RMS comparison to ITRF2005 in station velocity is at 1.8 mm/year on the East component, to 1.2 mm/year in North component and 1.6 mm/year in height.     

低空自由飞行短期冲突探测算法

针对低空自由飞行航线自主的特点,提出了一种概率型的短期冲突探测算法。算法考虑导航误差、控制误差及风扰动引起的飞行器位置预测误差,建立了合理的误差模型,以计算短期内飞行器之间的瞬时冲突概率;采用坐标变换以及扩展冲突区域,提出了三维空间内机动飞行情况下,计算冲突概率的近似解析算法。通过与Paielli和Erzberger(PE)提出的近似算法及Monte Carlo仿真算法的比较,表明本文算法提高了计算冲突概率的准确性,且计算复杂性远远低于Monte Carlo算法,满足低空自由飞行的实时性要求,可实现复杂环境下的冲突探测。