On the Effective Single Trial Probability of Success

Define the cumulative probability Pn of occurence of some event as the probability that it occurs at least once in n trials. If the single trial probabilities are not fixed, but are drawn from a distribution of their own, or are dependent on some other nonfixed variable, then it would be convenient to have an ?effective single trial probability (esp)? for use in the simple Bernoulli model which would give the same cumulative probability of occurence as actually observed. We show here that the esp can be interpreted as a kind of average, and that its value is given by 1 minus the geometric mean of 1-d(p), where d(p) is the probability density function of the single trial probabilities, the p's. We further define this geometric mean for both discrete and continuous distributions and evaluate the esp for several cases. These results are compared with earlier ones which suggest that the esp is given by the (arithmetic) average or expectation of the single trial probabilities, and we determine under what conditions this simpler result can be used.     

Calculation of Probability of Detection with Target Scintillation

This paper presents a computational method for the calculation of probability of detection using measured radar target cross-section data. The described method can also be used for probability of detection calculations when the radar target cross section follows a specified probability density function. Using the computational procedure of the paper, a number of curves are generated which can be used for probability of detection calculations with exponential and Gaussian radar target cross-section distributions. The results obtained using theoretical distributions are compared with the corresponding results using actual target cross-section measurements. The results of computer runs are compared to the corresponding values in the literature where available.     

强化参数及其标准差对元件疲劳寿命影响的研究

提出了一种处理钉孔挤压强化或干涉配合强化后元件疲劳寿命的可靠性分析方法。它可以由几组不同挤压量（干涉量）的元件疲劳寿命推算出元件在任意挤压量（干涉量）及公差要求情况下,其疲劳寿命提高到某一给定值的概率。从而可以分析不同工艺条件下,强化后元件疲劳寿命的分布情况。     

疲劳强度概率分布的统计推断

 本文就疲劳强度概率分布问题从统计角度出发,利用统计推断方法处理。通过三组较大子样的疲劳试验数据的统计分析,得出与在假定一定的疲劳寿命概率分布下由数学分析方法推导出的理论概率分布完全不同的结论。该法中疲劳强度概率分布与疲劳寿命分布没有直接关系。     

基于智能复合结构的可靠性分布模式自动识别

 采用Vor onoi 向量对SOM 网络算法进行了改进, 提高了学习收敛速度。通过提取数据的统计特征,建立了可靠性分布模式自动识别样本。提出的智能自动识别模型分两层, 在SOM 网络层对概率分布模式进行自动聚类, 在支持向量机层对各聚类组进行分类学习和识别, 获得识别模型的双层记忆权值。最后采用模型对常用可靠性分布模式进行了自动识别研究。测试结果表明, 建立的可靠性分布模式自动识别模型是可行、有效的。     

Radar Performance Review in Clear and Jamming Environments

The performance of electronically scanned radar systems is evaluated for clear and barrage jamming environments. Radar figures of merit in jamming are derived for search and track modes and are directly related to antenna pattern relative sidelobe levels. A random sidelobe model is analyzed with various numbers of independent jammers. Probability distributions of detection probability are derived to determine detection performance versus average jamming level and number of jammers.     

考虑几何分散性的涡轮盘寿命概率分析

针对考虑几何分散性的涡轮盘低循环疲劳（LCF）寿命概率分析中几何参数多、几何随机变量难确定、分布特征获取困难、模型需自动更新及计算成本高的问题,提出几何分散性的概率处理方法:采用试验设计方法对涡轮盘结构所有几何参数进行灵敏度分析,筛选出对应力影响较大的关键几何参数作为随机变量,使用K-S(Kolmogorov Smirnov)方法确定其分布类型和特征参数,最后建立代理模型进行Monte Carlo概率分析.基于此方法,开发出了涡轮盘概率分析系统,在该系统中筛选得到某发动机GH720Li涡轮盘内径、外径、盘缘厚度3个结构参数作为几何随机变量,完成对LCF寿命的概率分析工作得到寿命-可靠度分布曲线.分析结果表明涡轮盘外径对LCF寿命有较大影响.      

A CFAR Design for a Window Spanning Two Clutter Fields

When the heterogeneous clutter field spanning the spatial sampling sliding window can be modeled as two contiguous homogeneous clutter fields with the statistical parameters of each field unknown and independent from field to field and with the transition point between fields also not known, then the cell-averaging constant false alarm rate (CFAR) performance significantly degrades, yielding target masking effects and loss of false alarm regulation. For the same defined and encountered environment spanning the sliding window, the performance degradation effects are shown to be largely eliminated when a newly developed class of CFAR tests is employed. These tests are designated as heterogeneous clutter estimating CFARs (HCE-CFAR). The test initially involves the combined use of multiple hypothesis testing and maximum likelihood estimation procedures to estimate the statistical parameters of each of the two fields, and the transition point between them, and then makes use of the relevant estimated clutter field parameters to effect the final decision rule. HCE-CFAR designs are presented for both the cases when the contiguous fields have Rayleigh first-order probability distributions, and log-normal probability distribution. However, the focus of the development and the conducted performance evaluation is for the Rayleigh clutter cases.     

Image Correlation with Geometric Distortion Part 1: Acquisition Performance

The degradation in acquisition probability that occurs when cross correlation is used to determine the offset of two images of the same scene that differ by a relative geometric distortion is presented. The geometric distortions considered can be represented by a general affine transformation of image coordinates. The analysis shows that for a given geometric distortion there is an image size and shape that minimizes the probability of false acquisition. The results are derived for images modeled as random patterns with arbitrary auto-correlation functions. The results are illustrated for images with Gaussian autocorrelation functions.     

内埋式弹舱流场特性及武器分离特性改进措施

为改善内埋弹舱的流场特性以及内埋武器分离特性,采用在弹舱前缘悬细金属条的方法对弹舱流场进行流动控制,并在高速风洞中进行了试验研究。通过分析舱底静态压力试验结果以及脉动压力试验结果,研究了武器模型处于不同分离位置时流动控制对弹舱流场特性的影响;通过测量武器模型力和力矩,研究了流动控制对武器分离特性的影响。研究结果表明：武器模型处于不同分离位置时,该流动控制方法对弹舱底部静态压力分布以及总声压级分布的影响是相似的;当弹舱的流场类型为过渡／闭式穴流动时,采用该流动控制措施能有效降低舱内的静态压力梯度,并能有效改善武器的分离特性;当弹舱的流场类型为开式穴流动时,采用该流动控制措施能有效抑制舱内产生的气动噪声。     

利用差值定理降低飞行器速度和加速度拟合的截断误差

推导了差值定理及其推论,并以此作为数据拟合的有效点判据,显著降低了飞行器速度和加速度拟合的截断误差;探讨了该判据条件下滤波参数对拟合结果的影响及截断误差的判断条件,并采用实测数据对拟合效果进行了检验。     

Approximate Evaluation of Detection Probabilities in Radar and Optical Communications

Cumulative probability distributions such as occur in radar detection problems are approximated by a new version of the saddlepoint method of evaluating the inverse Laplace transform of the moment-generating function. When the number of radar pulses integrated is large, the approximation of lowest order yields good accuracy in the tails of the distributions, yet requires much less computation than standard recursive methods. Greater accuracy can be achieved upon summing the residual series by converting it to a continued fraction. The method is applied to evaluating the error-function integral and the Mth-order Q function, and to approximating the inverse of the chi-squared distribution. Cumulative distributions of discrete random variables, needed for determining error probabilities in optical communication receivers that involve counting photoelectrons, can be approximated by a simple modification of the method, which is here applied to the Laguerre distribution.     

Calculating Detection Probabilities for Systems Employing Noncoherent Integration

Cumulative probability distributions that occur in radar and sonar detection problems are calculated directly from the characteristic function by using a Fourier series. The error in the result is controlled by two parameters which can be adjusted to suit the application. The technique is applied to the problem of determining the detection performance of consecutive discrete Fourier transforms (DFTs) for a narrowband Gaussian signal with a rectangular spectrum. Since the characteristic function is used directly in its product form this technique does not suffer from the numerical problems associated with the partial fraction approach. The technique can handle many different problems in a single computational structure making it a valuable tool in system performance studies.     

Energy Detection of a Random Process in Colored Gaussian Noise

A likelihood receiver for a Gaussian random signal process in colored Gaussian noise is realized with a quadratic form of a finite-duration sample of the input process. Such a receiver may be called a "filtered energy detector." The output statistic is compared with a threshold and if the threshold is exceeded, a signal is said to be present. False alarm and detection probabilities may be estimated if tabulated distributions can be fitted to the actual distributions of the test statistic which are unknown. Gamma distributions were fitted to the conditional probability densities of the output statistic by equating means and variances, formulas for which are derived assuming a large observation interval. A numerical example is given for the case in which the noise and signal processes have spectral densities of the same shape or are flat. The optimum filter turns out to be a band-limited noise whitener. The factors governing false alarm and detection probabilities are the filter bandwidth, the sample duration, and the signal level compared to the noise. Two sets of receiver operating characteristic curves are presented to complete the example.     

Correlated K-distributed clutter generation for radar detection andtrack

The generation of correlated vectors for non-Gaussian clutter is considered for log normal, Weibull, and K-probability distributions. Previous results for log normal and Weibull distributions are summarized. Expressions for the probability distributions and moments of K-distributed clutter of any correlation are derived. Procedures for forming samples of each type of clutter are shown to be equivalent to passing white Gaussian noise through a linear filter followed by a nonlinear operation. Curves of correlation coefficients necessary for the simulation of these vectors are presented for each distribution     

疲劳裂纹扩展参数的寿命反推方法

为解决腐蚀疲劳条件下无法由断口判读获得(a,N)数据集以确定裂纹扩展公式参数的问题,提出了确定疲劳裂纹扩展参数的寿命反推方法。通过与用(a,N)数据集全部数据拟合结果的比较,证明该方法在指数b=1的情况下适用,而在b≠1时偏差较大;指定破坏概率的载荷循环数和裂纹长度的比较结果,说明该方法的结果可用于概率损伤容限分析。      

Uncertainty analysis of measured geometric variations in turbine blades and impact on aerodynamic performance

Inevitable geometric variations significantly affect the performance of turbines or even that of entire engines; thus, it is necessary to determine their actual characteristics and accurately estimate their impact on performance. In this study, based on 1781 measured profiles of a typical turbine blade, the statistical characteristics of the geometric variations and the uncertainty impact are analyzed, and some commonly used uncertainty modelling methods based on PrincipalComponent Analysis(PCA)...     

多参数载荷组合的概率分布研究

本文提出了航空发动机多参数载荷谱编制的概率分布方法。首先根据发动机构件受力特点选取基准参数,然后根据多参数载荷时间历程统计出各参数之间的双参数表,利用双参数表对载荷参数进行相关性检验,获得各参数之间的相关关系以及相关参数的相关区间,进而得到拟参数,再根据实测参数载荷历程统计出拟双参数表,并求出参数的边缘概率分布和条件概率分布,最后根据概率理论求解任意参数组合下发生的联合概率。利用该方法编制了某战斗机发动机的多参数载荷谱,给出了3个方向的过载与发动机转速组合的发生概率。      

成对使用的机翼主要构件可靠性分析

本文综合考虑了飞机构件疲劳与断裂两方面的特性,提出了在计及裂纹漏检条件下计算成对使用的机翼主要构件在任一检查周期内破断全概率的一种可靠性分析方法。并且,以某型后掠式飞机机翼主梁为例,给出了计算结果。     

On near wall measurements of wall bounded flows—The necessity of an accurate determination of the wall position

The present review paper is an account on the experimental determination of the wall position relative to the probe in wall-bounded turbulent flow studies. A thorough review on common measurement techniques as well as correction methods reveals, that there are a number of pitfalls, that—when not accounted for—can lead to wrong conclusions about the wall position and thereby also on the near-wall behaviour of mean and turbulence quantities. Employing the state-of-the-art databases from direct numerical simulations of wall-bounded turbulent flows various indirect methods have been tested and assessed in terms of their robustness and accuracy. It is also demonstrated that accurate measurements reaching the viscous sublayer are necessary in order to ensure a correctly deduced wall position, and dependent quantities as for instance the near-wall scaling of mean (e.g. Reynolds number dependence of the buffer region or the log law constants) and turbulence (e.g. the near-wall peak location of Reynolds stresses) quantities.In experiments using hot-wires near the wall it is well known that heat conduction between the hot-wire and the wall gives errors and mean velocity data from the viscous sublayer can usually not be used to determine the wall position. In this paper we introduce a new method which takes advantage of the similarity of the probability density distributions (pdf) in the near wall region. By using the high velocity data of the pdf, which is shown not to be affected by heat conduction, the heat conduction problem can be circumvented.Extensive appendices are included, describing the history and present knowledge about the scaling of the mean velocity in the near wall and overlap regions in wall bounded turbulent flows.