Economy of modular low-technology launch vehicles

The paper comprises an assessment of the design and the economics of so-called “low-cost” simple modular launch vehicles. It is shown that the performance is very marginal and that the cost per launch cannot compete with technically more advanced fully reusable vehicles. Especially a private-funded development cannot be amortized economically in case of an expendable launch vehicle.     

The transcost-model for launch vehicle cost estimation and its application to future systems analysis

The first part of the paper describes the structure of the analytical cost estimation model (1982 edition) for launch vehicle development, fabrication and launch operations cost. Especially the new approach for a cost assessment of operations cost including refurbishment (in case of reusable vehicles), direct and indirect operations is presented for discussion and subsequent improvements by introduction of more reference values. The model uses the Man-Year (MY) as cost unit which is independent from inflation and currency exchange rate changes.

The second part of the paper deals with its application to future systems analysis and cost comparison with the example of a potential future European launcher (Post-Ariane-4) with 15 tons LEO payload capability: ten different two-stage launch vehicle concepts (expendable, semi-reusable and fully reusable) with storable and cryogenic propellants are analysed with respect to development cost and cost per launch.

The key problem for a future European launch vehicle is the optimum solution between the (limited) development effort and the desired minimum launch cost. More advanced (partially) reusable systems could provide an essential reduction in cost per launch, require, however, a higher development effort.

In such a case an analytical cost model based on realistic reference data can provide important data for the vehicle concept selection process.     

Potential cost reductions for three STS/Spacelab mission modes

Based on the results of studies carried out by ESA several possibilities are discussed to achieve mission cost reductions for large Spacelab instrument facilities as compared to their flight on several 7-day duration Spacelab missions. As an example three scientific telescope facilities are selected (LIRTS, EXSPOS, GRIST) which are defined to a Phase A level.Three new mission modes are considered:

• —Shuttle attached Spacelab mission mode with extended flight duration (up to 30 days) for which the application of planned capability extensions and new elements of the STS/Spacelab (e.g. Short Spacelab Pallets, Power Extension Package) are investigated.

• —Shuttle deployed mission mode, for which the telescope, accommodated on a Spacelab pallet, is docked to the Power Module, a new element of the Space Transportation System under study by NASA.

• —Free-flying mission mode, for which Shuttle launched dedicated missions of the facilities are considered, assuming varying degrees of autonomy with respect to supporting services of the Shuttle.

Reduction of costs have been considered on the levels of single mission cost and total programme cost. Fundamentally the charges for the instrument can be reduced by constraining the mass/volume factors with respect to the Shuttle capability. However, the instrument as part of a payload is only viable if an acceptable resource sharing including observation time can be achieved. Any single instrument will require several mission opportunities or one mission which achieves a similar or longer total observation programme.Based on an identification of instrument modifications of the Phase A baseline designs to favour cost reductions and on a derivation of technical requirements, constraints and finally budgetary cost comparisons an attempt is made to assess the advantages and disadvantages of the different mission modes.The favoured option for GRIST is a 2–3 weeks sortie mission followed after refurbishment by a longer Power Module docked mission. For LIRTS and EXSPOS the free-flying pallet modes are very attractive in terms of the longer durations achieved and in terms of cost per unit operating time.     

Microgravity research and user support in the Space Station era: The Microgravity User Support Centre

Future space systems, such as Columbus, the planned European contribution to the International Space Station, offer ample possibilities for microgravity research and application. These new opportunities require adequate user support on ground and novel operational concepts in order to ensure an effective utilization. Extensive experience in microgravity user support has been accumulated at DFVLR during the past Spacelab 1 and D1 missions. Based on this work, a Microgravity User Support Centre (MUSC) has been built and is active for the forthcoming EURECA-A1 and D2 missions, to form an integrated support centre for the disciplines life sciences and material sciences in the Space Station era. The objective of the user support at MUSC is to achieve:

• easy access to space experiments for scientific and commercial users,

• efficient preparation of experiments,

• optimum use of valuable microgravity experimentation time,

• cost reduction by concentration of experience.

This is implemented by embedding the MUSC in an active scientific environment in both disciplines, such that users can share the experience gained by professional personnel. In this way, the Space Station system is operated along the lines established on ground for the utilization of large international research facilities, such as accelerators or astronomical observatories. In addition, concepts are developed to apply advanced telescience principles for Space Station operations.     

Cost Engineering – The new paradigm for space launch vehicle design

The paper describes the basic definition and application of 'Cost Engineering' which means to design a vehicle system for minimum development cost and/or for minimum operations cost. This is important now and for the future since space transportation has become primarily a commercial business in contrast to the past where it has been mainly a subject of military power and national prestige. Several examples are presented for minimum-cost space launch vehicle configurations, such as increasing vehicle size and/or the use of less efficient rocket engines in order to reduce development and operations cost. Further a cost comparison is presented on single-stage (SSTO)-vehicles vs. two-stage launchers which shows that SSTOs have lower development and operations cost although they are larger, respectively have a higher lift-off mass than two-stage vehicles with the same performance. The design of a space tourism-dedicated launch vehicle is an extreme challenge for a cost-engineered vehicle design in order to achieve cost per seat not higher than $50,000. Finally an outlook is presented on the different options for manned Earth-to-Moon transportation modes and vehicles – another most important application of 'cost engineering', taking into account the large cost of such a future venture.     

Low Cost and Reusability of Launch Vehicle

This paper analyzes the launch price of the launch vehicles, domestic and abroad, studies the status and trend of the low cost launch vehicles, and introduces two measures to reduce the cost by means of evolved and disruptive technologies, utilizing the concept of low cost manufacturing and operating modes as well. This paper also analyzes the launch strategies for small satellites such as piggyback, networking launch, and single launch with a small launch vehicle(SLV). Finally, the development trend of reusable launch vehicles is discussed as well as the development prospects for China's reusable launch vehicle.     

Future launchers strategy : the ariane 2010 initiative

With the new cryogenic upper stage ESC, the European heavy launcher Ariane 5+ is perfectly suited to the space market envisioned for the coming decade: flexible to cope with any payload and commercially attractive despite a fierce competition.Current Arianespace projections for the following years 2010–2020 indicate two major trends:

• satellites may still become larger and may require very different final orbits; today's market largely dominated by GEO may well evolve, influenced by LEO operations such as those linked to ISS or by constellations,

• to remain competitive, the launch cost has to be reduced.

The future generation of the European heavy launcher has therefore to focus on an ever increased flexibility with a drastic cost reduction.Two strategies are possible to achieve this double goal:

• reusable launchers, either partially or totally, may ease the access to space, limiting costly expendable stages; the assessment of their technical feasibility and financial viability is undergoing in Europe under the Future Launchers Technology Program (FLTP),

• expendable launchers, derived from the future Ariane 5+.

This second way started by CNES at the end of year 1999 is called the “Ariane 2010 initiative”.The main objectives are simultaneously an increase of 25% in performance and a reduction of 30% in launch cost wrt Ariane 5+.To achieve these very ambitious goals, numerous major modifications are studied:

• technical improvements :

◦ modifications of the Solid Rocket Boosters may consist in filament winding casing, increased loading, simplified casting, improved grain, simplified Thrust Vector Control, …

◦ evolution of the Vulcain engine leading to higher efficiency despite a simplified design, flow separation controlled nozzle extension, propellant management of the two cryogenic stages,

◦ simplified electrical system,

◦ increased standardization, for instance on flanged interfaces and manufacturing processes,

• operational improvements such as launch cycle simplification and standardization of the coupled analyses,

• organizational improvements such as a redistribution of responsibilities for the developments.

All these modifications will of course not be implemented together; the aim is to have a coherent catalogue of improvements in order to enable future choices depending on effective requirements. These basic elements will also be considered for the development of other launchers, in the small or medium size range.     

The hidden costs of reliability and failure in launch systems

In comparing the costs of different launch vehicles, the possibility of the risk of failure is assumed to be accounted for by the cost of insurance. The satellite may be insured against loss during launch, and the launch services provider may offer a “free relaunch.” However, actual costs of reliability and failure extend beyond this. Each failure necessitates an investigation and a “get well” programme by the operating agency, while putting the operations team “on hold” until services can resume. A commercial operator may also lose customer revenue and actual customers through loss of confidence or unavailability. Such costs tend to be hidden, and not evaluated in assessing the effectiveness of a system, but count towards total costs. Failure investigations help to improve system reliability, but this could equally have been achieved by expenditure in development and qualification. Reusable launch vehicles will have different costs associated with reliability and failure. The relationship between reliability and cost, properly assessed, ought to influence the design of both expendable and reusable launch systems.     

Project of Ariane 5 LV family advancement by use of reusable fly-back boosters (named “Bargouzine”)

The paper concerns possible concept variants of a partially reusable Heavy-Lift Launch Vehicle derived from the advanced basic launcher (Ariane-2010) by means of substitution of the EAP Solid Rocket Boosters for a Reusable Starting Stage consisting two Liquid-propellant Reusable Fly-Back Boosters called “Bargouzin”.This paper describes the status of the presently studied RFBB concepts during its three phases.The first project phase was dedicated to feasibility expertise of liquid-rocket reusable fly-back boosters (“Baikal” type) utilization for heavy-lift space launch vehicle. The design features and main conclusions are presented.The second phase has been performed with the purpose of selection of preferable concept among the alternative ones for the future Ariane LV modernization by using RFBB instead of EAP Boosters. The main requirements, logic of work, possible configuration and conclusion are presented. Initial aerodynamic, ballistic, thermoloading, dynamic loading, trade-off and comparison analysis have been performed on these concepts.The third phase consists in performing a more detailed expertise of the chosen LV concept. This part summarizes some of the more detailed results related to flight performance, system mass, thermoprotection system, aspects of technologies, ground complex modification, comparison analyses and conclusion.     

International market for a reusable launch vehicle

A reusable launch vehicle could be developed early next century if the X-33 program is successful. Its development will be funded by industry, and the vehicle will be operated privately. A critical task is to assess the future market for such a vehicle. The total number of commercial payloads could range between 40 and 60 satellites per year, taking into account the market elasticity due to the launch price reduction. The RLV would face important competition from expendable launch vehicles. However, the RLV could capture two-thirds of this market, or 26–33 commercial payloads per year.     

Tracing the evolutionary path for space technologies

Proliferation and pace of advancing technologies warrant policy and strategic decision-making. Without thinking ahead, companies can loose marketshare and countries can yield comparative advantage. The rate at which burgeoning technologies progress, however, can make it difficult for corporations and governments alike to discern or better anticipate critical junctures in technology developments. This paper presents a conceptual, multidimensional framework, the “evolutionary path”, for understanding the stages of technological development in the civil space area. The analysis draws from three case studies — communications satellites, computers, and launch vehicles — and shows how the implications and developments of new, breakthrough technologies differ from the incremental technology upgrades or the later emergence of interconnected systems and infrastructures.     

The future of launch vehicles

This article traces the development of satellite launch vehicles from the derivatives of long-range ballistic missiles to the current Ariane and Space Shuttle programmes. Looking to the next generation of launchers, the author outlines current thinking on reusable vehicles, focusing particularly on the British Aerospace/Rolls Royce HOTOL concept.     

垂直起降可重复使用运载器发展现状与关键技术分析

重复使用运载技术是降低单次发射成本、提高发射密度和减少残骸危害的有效手段,随着以Falcon 9系列为代表的垂直起降运载器的成功回收与重复使用,其在商业航天发射市场表现出了较强的竞争力,掀起了可重复使用运载器的研究新热潮。首先梳理了垂直起降可重复使用运载器的发展现状,然后结合垂直起降运载的任务特征分析了其关键技术,最后总结了垂直起降运载器的发展趋势。     

The famous son of Ukrainian people V.I. Voznyuk who has provided launch of all ballistic missiles of the cosmodrome Kapustin Yar

The history of the life of V.I. Voznyuk is a history of the phenomenon of the Soviet rocket progress when the engineers with experience of launch of military rocket of small radius of action were testing the ballistic missiles. The remarkable and little-known destiny of Voznuk is the history of the Soviet rocket technology experts who had a severe practical schooling of command by the military forces of the first combat missiles “Katucha” during the grim military years (including the grandiose fight in Stalingrad) and then they have continued to launch the ballistic missiles. V.I. Voznyuk worked as the chief of the first Soviet cosmodrome Kapustin Yar for almost 30 years—since the most difficult moment of its organization. He organized a launch of the first Soviet ballistic missiles R-1, R-2, R-5M of S. Korolev. This report is about the outstanding achievement of the organizing ability of V.I. Voznyuk—about the launch of a missile with a nuclear warhead in 1956. V.I. Voznyuk closes a unique chain in the world of outstanding figures of space-rocket technology who were born or lived in Ukraine from designers of missile up to the organizers of its manufacture and now up to the organizers of the tests of rockets—J. Aizenberg, V. Budnik, O. Baclanov, V. Dogujiev, M. Galasj, N. Gerasuta, V. Gluschko, B. Gubanov, A. Gudimenko, I. Ivanov, G. Kesunjko, B. Konoplev, S. Korolev, V. Kovtunenko, V. Kukuschkin, O. Makarov, A. Nedaivoda, M. Reshetniyov, Yu. Semenov, V. Sergeev, Yu. Smetanin, V. Tchelomey, D. Torchiy, V. Utkin and M. Yangel.     

残骸落区对火箭构型影响论证

残骸落区的选择是在运载火箭构型设计时必须首要考虑的设计因素,其设计结果直接关系到落区内人民生命财产安全,因此残骸落区必须避开人口稠密、重要设施区域。然而运载火箭残骸的被动段轨迹与上升段轨道设计直接相关,过近或过远的落区都将影响火箭上升段轨道的设计结果,进而影响运载火箭的运载能力。本文以典型二级火箭论证为例,开展了基于落区约束火箭构型的总体方案优化,运载能力变化充分说明残骸落区对火箭构型论证的影响,为后续构型论证工作的高效开展夯实了基础。     

国外固体运载火箭主动力系统发展研究

统计了近10年来欧洲、日本、美国的固体运载火箭发射情况,系统分析了这些火箭使用的固体发动机性能参数,梳理了其发展脉络。这些国家和地区固体运载火箭主动力系统低成本的技术思路、模块化的发展方向、自动化的生产条件、完备的寿命评估体系,能够为我国运载火箭固体动力系统现阶段的使用、改进,以及未来的发展、规划提供参考和借鉴。     

运载火箭尾段防热/承载一体化热防护系统设计及性能分析

先进热防护技术是可重复使用运载火箭研制的关键技术之一,具有高结构效率的防热/承载一体化热防护系统是运载火箭极具潜力的备选热防护方案。本文系统地总结了可重复使用运载火箭尾舱段防热和承载两方面的设计要求,设计了一种全复合材料防隔热/承载一体化热防护系统。开展了运载火箭尾段一体化热防护系统设计,进行了代表性单胞结构的高温环境地面试验,揭示了复合材料一体化热防护系统的防隔热机理。同时施加力学和热流载荷,利用有限元方法对运载火箭尾段进行了热力耦合分析,获得了尾段结构的温度场、应变场和应力场。结果表明:在典型载荷工况下一体化热防护系统内壁温度保持在89.2℃以下,内部最大应力不超过9.53 MPa,安全系数达到1.89。     

Optimization of the ion-propelled space tug

Optimization of ion-propelled space vehicles is a topic of many aspects. Well known is the Stuhlinger procedure, which results in maximum payload mass fraction, given some mission and vehicle characteristic data. This procedure determines all major vehicle data—specifically, the electric power level. It is described with some refinements in this paper. Furthermore, a novel problem is treated: What set of vehicular data leads to the shortest possible propulsive mission duration, for a given electric power level? This goes beyond the “classic” Stuhlinger treatment; but is built upon this fundament.     

RLV再入混合制导方法研究

提出可重复使用跨大气层飞行器（RLV）再入混合制导方法，该方法将再入轨道在线生成技术、基于阻力加速度飞行剖面的跟踪制导技术和数值预测制导技术有机结合。其中再入轨道在线生成能够向轨道预测制导算法提供初值，以加快轨道预测制导算法收敛速度；轨道跟踪控制器控制再入吸热，使再入轨道满足再入走廊约束；而数值预测制导算法则对再入轨道进行快速预报，生成合适的制导指令，将RLV导向目标。给出了RLV再入混合制导的具体算法，并对Marshall航天中心先进制导与控制项目所提出的九种再入情况进行了初步仿真，结果表明所提出的RLV再入混合制导方案是可行的。     

我国可重复使用液体火箭发动机发展的思考

重复使用是降低航天发射成本的重要途径之一,是液体火箭发动机未来发展的重要方向。本文分析了可重复使用液体发动机的发展趋势,针对可重复使用运载器对发动机功能的需求,探讨了动力系统方案;对比了液氧煤油和液氧甲烷等推进剂组合和不同循环方式,认为几种发动机方案均可满足重复使用运载器的需求;研究了重复使用发动机的关键技术,提出应重点研究可重复使用液体火箭发动机高温组件热结构疲劳寿命评估及延寿技术、运动组件摩擦磨损技术、结构动载荷控制与评估技术、快速检测评估与维修维护技术、健康监控与故障诊断技术、二次或多次起动技术与大范围推力调节技术等。