Forecasting the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances produced by it

A brief review is given of contemporary approaches to solving the problem of medium-term forecast of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind (SW) and of the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by it. At the present time, two promising models of calculating the velocity of quasi-stationary SW at the Earth’s orbit are realized. One model is the semi-empirical model of Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) which allows one to calculate the dependence V(t) of SW velocity at the Earth’s orbit using measured values of the photospheric magnetic field. This model is based on calculation of the local divergence f _S of magnetic field lines. The second model is semi-empirical model by Eselevich-Fainshtein-Rudenko (EFR). It is based on calculation in a potential approximation of the area of foot points on the solar surface of open magnetic tubes (sources of fast quasistationary SW). The new Bd-technology is used in these calculations, allowing one to calculate instantaneous distributions of the magnetic field above the entire visible surface of the Sun. Using predicted V(t) profiles, one can in EFR model calculate also the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by quasi-stationary SW. This intensity is expressed through the K _p index. In this paper the EFR model is discussed in detail. Some examples of epignosis and real forecast of V(t) and K _p (t) are discussed. A comparison of the results of applying these two models for the SW velocity forecasting is presented.     

Plasma flow disturbances in the magnetospheric plasma sheet during substorm activations

We have considered variations in fields and particle fluxes in the near-Earth plasma sheet on the THEMIS-D satellite together with the auroral dynamics in the satellite-conjugate ionospheric part during two substorm activations on December 19, 2014 with K _p = 2. The satellite was at ~8.5R_E and MLT = 21.8 in the outer region of captured energetic particles with isotropic ion fluxes near the convection boundary of electrons with an energy of ~10 keV. During substorm activations, the satellite recorded energetic particle injections and magnetic field oscillations with a period of ~90 s. In the satellite-conjugate ionospheric part, the activations were preceded by wavelike disturbances of auroral brightness along the southern azimuthal arc. In the expansion phase of activations, large-scale vortex structures appeared in the structure of auroras. The sudden enhancements of auroral activity (brightening of arcs, auroral breakup, and appearance of NS forms) coincided with moments of local magnetic field dipolarization and an increase in the amplitude Pi2 of pulsations of the B_z component of the magnetic field on the satellite. Approximately 30–50 s before these moments, the magnetosphere was characterized by an increased rate of plasma flow in the radial direction, which initiated the formation of plasma vortices. The auroral activation delays relative to the times when plasma vortices appear in the magnetosphere decreased with decreasing latitude of the satellite projection. The plasma vortices in the magnetosphere are assumed to be responsible for the observed auroral vortex structures and the manifestation of the hybrid vortex instability (or shear flow ballooning instability) that develops in the equatorial magnetospheric plane in the presence of a shear plasma flow in the region of strong pressure gradients in the Earthward direction.     

Stationary Nose Structures of Protons in the Inner Magnetosphere: Observations by the ION Instrument onboard the Interball-2 Satellite and Modeling

Nose structures are objects formed by H⁺ particles penetrating into the inner magnetosphere [1, 2]. We present the results of experimental studies and numerical modeling of the nose structures. Statistical processing of the observations of nose structures in 1997 by the ION instrument onboard the Interball-2 satellite at heights of 10000–15000 km demonstrates that the probability of formation of the nose structures under quiet magnetic conditions (with current values K _p = 0–1) in the nighttime sector of the magnetosphere is 90%. The probability of observation of the nose structures in the daytime sector equals 50% at the current value K _p = 0–1, and the correlation between the observations of nose structures and K _p can be improved (up to 75%) if the K _p index is taken 6 h before the observed events. It is shown that nose structures are a characteristic feature not only of the substorm processes but also of quasi-stationary phenomena in the quiet magnetosphere. The nose structures observed in magnetically quiet periods are called stationary nose structures in this work. By modeling drift trajectories for protons, it is shown that the stationary nose structures are formed in all sectors of the MLT. The stationary nose structures observed by the ION instrument are modeled in the night, morning, and daytime sectors of the MLT. The relation between the stationary nose structures and ion spectral gaps is considered.     

Fine structure of the interplanetary shock front according to measurements of the ion flux of the solar wind with high time resolution

According to the data of the BMSW/SPEKTR-R instrument, which measured the density and velocity of solar wind plasma with a record time resolution, up to ~3 ×10^–2 s, the structure of the front of interplanetary shocks has been investigated. The results of these first investigations were compared with the results of studying the structure of the bow shocks obtained in previous years. A comparison has shown that the quasi-stationary (averaged over the rapid oscillations) distribution of plasma behind the interplanetary shock front was significantly more inhomogeneous than that behind the bow-shock front, i.e., in the magnetosheath. It has also been shown that, to determine the size of internal structures of the fronts of quasi-perpendicular (θ_BN > 45°) shocks, one could use the magnetic field magnitude, the proton density, and the proton flux of the solar wind on almost equal terms. A comparison of low Mach (М _А < 2), low beta (β₁ < 1) fronts of interplanetary and bow shocks has shown that the dispersion of oblique magnetosonic waves plays an essential role in their formation.     

Calculation of the Initial Magnetic Field for Mercury’s Magnetosphere Hybrid Model

Several types of numerical models are used to analyze the interactions of the solar wind flow with Mercury’s magnetosphere, including kinetic models that determine magnetic and electric fields based on the spatial distribution of charges and currents, magnetohydrodynamic models that describe plasma as a conductive liquid, and hybrid models that describe ions kinetically in collisionless mode and represent electrons as a massless neutralizing liquid. The structure of resulting solutions is determined not only by the chosen set of equations that govern the behavior of plasma, but also by the initial and boundary conditions; i.e., their effects are not limited to the amount of computational work required to achieve a quasi-stationary solution. In this work, we have proposed using the magnetic field computed by the paraboloid model of Mercury’s magnetosphere as the initial condition for subsequent hybrid modeling. The results of the model have been compared to measurements performed by the Messenger spacecraft during a single crossing of the magnetosheath and the magnetosphere. The selected orbit lies in the terminator plane, which allows us to observe two crossings of the bow shock and the magnetopause. In our calculations, we have defined the initial parameters of the global magnetospheric current systems in a way that allows us to minimize paraboloid magnetic field deviation along the trajectory of the Messenger from the experimental data. We have shown that the optimal initial field parameters include setting the penetration of a partial interplanetary magnetic field into the magnetosphere with a penetration coefficient of 0.2.     

Observation of the Near Plasma Sheet,Ring Current,and Energetic Electrons from Radiation Belts at a Geosynchronous Orbit,March 11–25, 1992

The dynamics of near plasma sheet electrons and ions (E 0.1–12.4 keV), ring current protons (E _i 41–133 keV), and energetic electrons from the Earth's radiation belts (E _e 97–1010 keV) is considered using the data from the Gorizont-34and Gorizont-35geosynchronous satellites from March 11–25, 1992. Peculiarities of this period are a long (more than 4 days) interval of the northward interplanetary magnetic field (B _z> 0) and a high-speed stream of the solar wind with an enhanced particle density. The SC and compression of the magnetosphere to the geosynchronous orbit (GMC) preceded this interval. Under quiet and moderately disturbed geomagnetic conditions and under a prolonged northward interplanetary magnetic field, we observed a significant decrease of fluxes and softening of spectra of the electron component of plasma in the energy ranges of 0.1–12.4 keV and 97–1010 keV, and of the ion component of plasma at energies of 0.1–4 keV, while the intensity of 5–12.4 keV ion fluxes increases by about one order of magnitude. The peculiarities of distributions of energetic particle fluxes observed in the period under consideration can be associated with significant variations of the convection conditions and a decreased or fully suppressed injection of energetic electrons into the geosynchronous orbit region.     

Verification of the Accuracy of the Magnetopause Empirical Models Using the INTERBALL-1 Satellite Data

A statistical analysis of the shape and location of the magnetopause according to the INTERBALL-1 satellite data for the period 1995–1997 is carried out. The instants of crossing the magnetosphere boundaries obtained by the plasma and magnetic data are compared with computations based on three empirical models, namely, Petrinec and Russel, 1996; Shue et al., 1997; and Shue et al., 1998. The state of the interplanetary medium (dynamic pressure of the solar wind plasma P _d and the B _z component of the interplanetary magnetic field) was determined by the measurements onboard the WIND spacecraft. We estimate the accuracy of the considered models for different groups of boundary crossings: single, multiple with small duration (less than 40 min), and multiple with large duration (more than 40 min). It is demonstrated that the small-scale motions of the boundary (<1R _E) are observed more often in the dayside magnetosphere, especially near the cusp region. Large-scale boundary oscillations (>1R _E) are more common in the tail region of the magnetosphere, namely, its flanks. Various models give similar results: about 50% of all events have deviations by more than 1R _E from the model locations. In some cases, the deviation of the measured location of the magnetosphere boundary from the model prediction may be as large as 5–6R _E for all three models considered, the actual boundary being more often located nearer to the Earth than the result of model computations. The best model is that of Shue et al., 1998, but it does not differ significantly from the other models.     

Turbulent fluctuations of plasma and magnetic field parameters in the magnetosheath and the low-latitude boundary layer formation: Multisatellite observations on March 2, 1996

The results of simultaneous analysis of plasma and magnetic field characteristics measured on the INTERBALL/Tail Probe, WIND and Geotail satellites on March 2, 1996, are presented. During these observations the INTERBALL/Tail Probe crossed the low-latitude boundary layer, and the WIND and Geotail satellites measured the solar wind’s and magnetosheath’s parameters, respectively. The plasma and magnetic field characteristics in these regions have been compared. The data of the Corall, Electron, and MIF instruments on the INTERBALL/Tail Probe satellite are analyzed. Fluctuations of the magnetic field components and plasma velocity in the solar wind and magnetosheath, measured onboard the WIND and Geotail satellites, are compared. The causes resulting in appearance of plasma jet flows in the low-latitude boundary layer are analyzed. The amplitude of magnetic field fluctuations in the magnetosheath for a studied magnetosphere boundary crossing is shown to exceed the magnetic field value below the magnetopause near the cusp. The possibility of local violation of pressure balance on the magnetopause is discussed, as well as penetration of magnetosheath plasma into the magnetosphere, as a result of magnetic field and plasma flux fluctuations in the magnetosheath.     

A mechanism for generating magnetic field by vortex processes in stellar plasma

The difference in viscous properties of proton and electron gases in fully ionized hydrogen plasma is shown to result in a possibility of generation in this plasma of the magnetic field, even if initially there was no field. As an example, a simplified planar stationary model of a magnetohydrodynamic process of the eddy sink type is considered. It is demonstrated that the intensity of the generated magnetic field strongly depends on plasma temperature, so that the range T = 100000–500000 K corresponds to the range of maximum magnetic induction B = 50–2700 G. Such values are frequently observed in ordinary stars, in particular, in solar flares.     

Structure of the Disturbed Magnetosphere

The quasitrapping region (QTR) at the night side of a disturbed magnetosphere in the majority of models is either absent completely or merges with the plasma sheet of the magnetosphere tail. At the same time these two regions are different both in the topology of the magnetic field and in the character of motion of charged particles. Moreover, it is the region of quasitrapping that is conjugate to the zone of auroral active forms; i.e., it can be called the auroral magnetosphere. Models of the magnetosphere in which the tail structures of the magnetic field are directly adjacent to the boundary of stable trapping (in particular, the isotropic boundary model) are based on erroneous assumptions. Our understanding of the processes of magnetosphere substorms and magnetic storms depends on a correct understanding of the magnetosphere structure.     

Statistical analysis of turbulence in the foreshock region and in the Earth’s magnetosheath

Statistical properties of magnetic field and plasma flux fluctuations outside the Earth’s magnetosphere are studied on various time scales based on the INTERBALL-1 satellite data. The analysis of “rough” turbulence characteristics has shown that turbulence properties in various parts of the magnetosheath are distinct. The spectral density of the magnetic field undergoes a break at a frequency of ∼0.5 Hz. As a more “fine” characteristic of the fluctuations on various time scales, changes in the shape and parameters of the probability density function were studied. The analysis of the height of a maximum of the probability density function P(0) and of the kurtosis values have shown the presence of two asymptotic modes of P(0), which are characterized by different power laws. The critical scale, on which the properties of P(0) change, corresponds, presumably, to the scales of the Larmor radius of ions. Based on the results of studying structural functions of various orders, the conclusion is drawn that small-scale turbulence in the foreshock and magnetosheath is described by different phenomenological models.     

Ray Based Diffraction Tomography of the Ionosphere and Laboratory Inhomogeneous Plasma

A new procedure for restoration of the plasma inhomogeneities with improved resolution is suggested. The procedure deals with the double weighted Fourier transform (DWFT) of the observed wavefield in coordinates of both receivers = (x, y) and sources ₀ = (x ₀, y ₀) [1]. Phase increments between the sources and receivers, being found from DWFT representation, can be used for extracting information on small perturbations of the dielectric constant ~(, z) in a way similar to traditional radio tomography. The resulting resolution of the method is close to the diffraction limit = h/D in the horizontal direction and z = (h/D)² in the vertical direction, where h is the height of inhomogeneities and D is the length of the ground-based receiving system.     

Orientation of Middle-Scale Structures in the Solar Wind Plasma

An estimation of the value and orientation of the inclination of middle-scale structures in the solar wind plasma is obtained on the basis of time lags of simultaneous correlated measurements on three spacecraft: INTERBALL-1, IMP-8, and WIND. It is shown that middle-scale plasma structures, in the majority of cases, are not perpendicular to the Sun–Earth line, but inclined to it (presumably, in the ecliptic plane), on average, at an angle of approximately 63° (or 27° to the Y _SE axis). However, this inclination is significantly less than the inclination of the Parker spiral for the interplanetary magnetic field (45° at the Earth's orbit).     

Disturbance of the Electric Field in the Ionosphere by Sea Storms and Typhoons

The results of detecting quasi-stationary electric fields onboard the Kosmos-1809 satellite and observing sea storms and typhoons are analyzed jointly. We have detected an amplification of the electric field in the low-latitude ionosphere that is related to the preparatory stage and development of tropical storms and typhoons. In this case, the electric field strength can reach 20 mV/m, an anomalously high value for the low-latitude and near-equatorial ionosphere. High-accuracy estimates of the electric field strength are made on the basis of a model of its origination as a result of the generation of an extraneous electric current in the disturbed region of the lower atmosphere and the impact of these currents on the global atmosphere–ionosphere system of currents.     

Peculiarities of the formation of a thin current sheet in the Earth’s magnetosphere

We investigate the process of the self-consistent formation of a thin current sheet with a thickness close to the ion Larmor gyroradius in the presence of decreasing magnetic field’s normal component B_n. This behavior is typical of the current sheet of the Earth’s magnetospheric tail during geomagnetic substorms. It has been shown that, in a numerical model of the current sheet, based on the particle-in-cell method, the appearance of self-consistent electric field component E_y in the current sheet vicinity can lead to its significant thinning and, eventually, to the formation of a multiscale configuration with a thin current sheet (TCS) in the central region supported by transient particles. The structure of the resulting equilibrium is determined by the initial parameters of the model and by the particle dynamics during the sheet thinning. Under certain conditions, the particle drift in the crossed electric and magnetic fields leads to a significant portion of ions becoming trapped near the neutral sheet and, in this way, to the formation of a wider configuration with an embedded thin current sheet. The population of trapped particles produces diamagnetic negative currents that manifest in the form of negative wings at the periphery of the sheet. Correspondingly, in the direction perpendicular to the sheet, a nonmonotonic coordinate dependence of the magnetic field appears. The mechanisms of the evolution of the current sheet in the Earth’s magnetotail and the formation of a multiscale structure are discussed.     

Plasma Jet Motion Across the Geomagnetic Field in the “North Star” Active Geophysical Experiment

The active geophysical rocket experiment North Star was carried out in the auroral ionosphere on January 22, 1999, at the Poker Flat Research Range (Alaska, USA) using the American research rocket Black Brant XII with explosive plasma generators on board. Separable modules with scientific equipment were located at distances of from 170 to 1595 m from the plasma source. The experiment continued the series of the Russian–American joint experiments started by the Fluxus experiment in 1997. Two injections of aluminum plasma across the magnetic field were conducted in the North Star experiment. They were different, since in the first injection a neutral gas cloud was formed in order to increase the plasma ionization due to the interaction of neutrals of the jet and cloud. The first and second injections were conducted at heights of 360 and 280 km, respectively. The measurements have shown that the charged particle density was two orders of magnitude higher in the experiment with the gas release. The magnetic field in the first injection was completely expelled by the dense plasma of the jet. The displacement of the magnetic field in the second injection was negligible. The plasma jet velocity in both injections decreased gradually due to its interaction with the geomagnetic field. One of the most interesting results of the experiment was the conservation of high plasma density during the propagation of the divergent jet to considerable distances. This fact can be explained by the action of the critical ionization velocity mechanism.     

Fine structure of interplanetary shock fronts from the data of the BMSW instrument of the PLASMA-F experiment

The paper is concerned with studying the thickness of fronts of 38 interplanetary shocks detected by the BMSW instrument, which is a part of the scientific payload of the SPEKTR-R spacecraft, which was launched into a highly elliptical orbit in 2011. The main parameters of the interplanetary shocks have been calculated as follows: the ratio of thermal pressure to magnetic pressure before the front β, the angle between the shock front normal and the undisturbed magnetic field θ_Bn, the ratio of the shock propagation velocity to the magnetosonic velocity in the undisturbed region M_ms, and the shock front velocity relative to the Earth. It has been shown that the front thickness determined from the plasma parameters approximately matches the front thickness obtained from the magnetic field measurements and lies between 0.5 and 5 proton inertial lengths. In some events, the oscillations have been observed (upstream and downstream of the shock) in plasma parameters and in the magnetic field data. The length has been found to be between 0.5 and 6 proton inertial lengths for the preceding oscillations and between 0.5 and 10 proton inertial lengths for the following oscillations. The average value of the proton inertial length is 62 km.     

Sporadic plasma streams and their sources in the period of extraordinary solar activity from October 26 to November 6, 2003

Based on the results of investigations made by various authors applying different semiempirical models, we have formulated the principles of a complex method that allows one to associate sporadic streams of the solar wind (SW) at the Earths orbit with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are their sources on the Sun. This method is applied to an analysis of the events in the interval from October 26 to November 6, 2003. It is shown that, in the period under consideration, which is close to the maximum of solar activity, the majority of CMEs (up to 80% of their total number) turn out to be at the base of a chain of streamers. It is also shown that the component of the interplanetary magnetic field is the main factor of geoeffectiveness for six sporadic SW streams. At the same time, an unusually low value of the index minD_st< -300 nT for two streams with the velocities V_max > 1000 km/s is a consequence of the fact that they are not isolated; i.e., the subsequent stream moves through the medium disturbed by the preceding stream.Translated from Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 42, No. 6, 2004, pp. 595–607.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2004 by M. Eselevich, V. Eselevich.     

Sharp Boundaries of Solar Wind Plasma Structures and an Analysis of Their Pressure Balance

This work is devoted to studying the sharp boundaries of small-scale structures of the solar wind according to the data of measurements with high time resolution onboard the INTERBALL-1 satellite and simultaneous measurements of the WIND spacecraft. Such issues as the character of change of various plasma and magnetic field parameters on these boundaries, the duration of boundary passage and the balance of the total (thermal plus magnetic) pressure on the boundaries of the structures are considered. On the basis of the vast statistical material available, the typical conditions in the solar wind are investigated, in which such sharp boundaries are observed.__________Translated from Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 43, No. 3, 2005, pp. 163–170.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Riazantseva, Khabarova, Zastenker, Richardson.     

Heating and acceleration of charged particles during magnetic dipolarizations

In this paper, we analyzed the thermal and energy characteristics of the plasma components observed during the magnetic dipolarizations in the near tail by the Cluster satellites. It was previously found that the first dipolarization the ratio of proton and electron temperatures (T _p/T _e) was ~6–7. At the time of the observation of the first dipolarization front T _p/T _e decreases by up to ~3–4. The minimum value T _p/T _e (~2.0) is observed behind the front during the turbulent dipolarization phase. Decreases in T _p/T _e observed at this time are associated with an increase in T _e, whereas the proton temperature either decreases or remains unchanged. Decreases of the value T _p/T _e during the magnetic dipolarizations coincide with increase in wave activity in the wide frequency band up to electron gyrofrequency f _ce. High-frequency modes can resonantly interact with electrons causing their heating. The acceleration of ions with different masses up to energies of several hundred kiloelectron-volts is also observed during dipolarizations. In this case, the index of the energy spectrum decreases (a fraction of energetic ions increases) during the enhancement of low-frequency electromagnetic fluctuations at frequencies that correspond to the gyrofrequency of this ion component. Thus, we can conclude that the processes of the interaction between waves and particles play an important role in increasing the energy of plasma particles during magnetic dipolarizations.