Energetic particle signatures of geoeffective coronal mass ejections

We have studied statistically associations of moderate and intense geomagnetic storms with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and energetic particle events. The goal was to identify specific energetic particle signatures, which could be used to improve the predictions of the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Protons in the range 1–110 MeV from the ERNE experiment onboard SOHO are used in the analysis. The study covers the time period from August 1996 to July 2000. We demonstrate the feasibility of energetic particle observations as an additional source of information in evaluating the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed onset times of solar energetic particle (SEP) events and energetic storm particle (ESP) events, we derive a proxy for the transit times of shocks driven by the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections from the Sun to the Earth. For a limited number of geomagnetic storms which can be associated to both SEP and ESP signatures, we found that this transit time correlates with the strength of geomagnetic storms.     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Study of TEC changes during geomagnetic storms occurred near the crest of the equatorial ionospheric ionization anomaly in the Indian sector

GPS satellites data obtained at Bhopal (23.16° N, 77.36° E, geomagnetic latitude 14.23° N) India were analyzed to study the TEC changes during several geomagnetic storms (−300 nT < Dst < −50 nT) occurred in 2005–2007. We had segregated the storms according to the Dst value, i.e. moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), strong storms (−150 nT < Dst < −100 nT), and severe storms (Dst less than −150 nT). Total of 21 geomagnetic storms (10 moderate, 9 strong, 2 severe) are considered for the present study. Deviation in vertical total electron content (VTEC) during the main phase of the storm was found to be associated with the prompt penetration of electric field originated due to the under-shielding and over-shielding conditions for almost all geomagnetic storms discussed in this paper. For most of the storms VTEC shows the positive percentage deviation during the main phase while it shows positive as well as the negative deviation during the recovery phase of the storms. The −80% deviation in VTEC was found for geomagnetic storm occurred on July 17, 2005 and the negative trend continued for recovery phase of the storm. This was mainly due to the thermospheric composition changes by Joule heating effect at auroral latitudes that generate electric field disturbance at low latitudes. Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) were responsible for the formation of wave like nature in VTEC for the storms occurred on May 15, 2005, whereas it was not observed for storm occurred on August 24, 2005.     

Solar and interplanetary origins of the November 2004 superstorms

During the first half of November 2004, many solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were associated with solar active region (AR) 10696. This paper attempts to identify the solar and interplanetary origins of two superstorms which occurred on 8 and 10 November with peak intensities of Dst = −373 nT and −289 nT, respectively. Southward interplanetary magnetic fields within a magnetic cloud (MC), and a sheath + MC were the causes of these two superstorms, respectively. Two different CME propagation models [Gopalswamy, N., Yashiro, S., Kaiser, M.L. et al. Predicting the 1-AU arrival times of coronal mass ejections. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 29207–29219, 2001; Gopalswamy, N.S., Lara, A., Manoharan, P.K. et al. An empirical model to predict the 1-AU arrival of interplanetary shocks. Adv. Space Res. 36, 2289–2294, 2005] were employed to attempt to identify the solar sources. It is found that the models identify several potential CMEs as possible sources for each of the superstorms. The two Gopalswamy et al. models give the possible sources for the first superstorm as CMEs on 2330 UT 4 November 2004 or on 1454 UT 5 November 2004. For the second superstorm, the possible solar source was a CME that on 0754 UT 5 November 2004 or one that occurred on 1206 UT 5 November 2004. We note that other propagation models sometimes agree and other times disagree with the above results. It is concluded that during high solar/interplanetary activity intervals such as this one, the exact solar source is difficult to identify. More refined propagation models are needed.     

第23太阳活动周中等地磁暴行星际源的统计分析

统计了第23太阳活动周(1996--2006年)发生的183次中等强度地磁暴(-100 nT < Dst ≤ -50 nT)的行星际源,分析了中等磁暴的年分布状况以及引起中等磁暴的不同行星际结构在太阳活动周中的分布特征,同时,与强磁暴行星际源的分布状况做了对比分析,主要的统计分析结果如下. (1)共转相互作用区CIR与行星际日冕物质抛射ICME在中等磁暴中具有同等重要的作用,且在ICME中,具有磁云结构和非磁云结构的ICME在引起中等磁暴的能力方面也基本相同,但带有鞘层结构的ICME在引起中等磁暴中具有更重要的作用. (2)中等磁暴在极大年(2001年)和下降年(2003年)发生次数最多,与地磁活动的双峰年对应,在极小年(1996和2006年)发生次数最少,与地磁活动低年对应,在其他年份分布较平均. (3)中等磁暴在太阳活动极大年主要由ICME引起,在上升年和下降年CIR在其中起主要作用,且下降年基本是上升年的两倍,而对于强磁暴而言,ICME始终是最重要的行星际源.      

Statistical analysis of the occurrence rate of geomagnetic storms during solar cycles 20–24

This study examines the occurrences rate of geomagnetic storms during the solar cycles (SCs) 20–24. It also investigates the solar sources at SCs 23 and 24. The Disturbed storm time (Dst) and Sunspot Number (SSN) data were used in the study. The study establishes that the magnitude of the rate of occurrences of geomagnetic storms is higher (lower) at the descending phases (minimum phases) of solar cycle. It as well reveals that severe and extreme geomagnetic storms (Dst < -250 nT) seldom occur at low solar activity but at very high solar activity and are mostly associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) when occurred. Storms caused by CME + CH-HSSW are more prominent during the descending phase than any other phase of the solar cycle. Solar minimum features more CH-HSSW- associated storms than any other phase. It was also revealed that all high intensity geomagnetic storms (strong, severe and extreme) are mostly associated with CMEs. However, CH-HSSW can occasionally generate strong storms during solar minimum. The results have proven that CMEs are the leading cause of geomagnetic storms at the ascending, maximum and the descending phases of the cycles 23 and 24 followed by CME + CH-HSSW. The results from this study indicate that the rate of occurrence of geomagnetic storms could be predicted in SC phases.     

Moderate geomagnetic storms of January 22–25, 2012 and their influences on the wave components in ionosphere and upper stratosphere-mesosphere regions

Moderate geomagnetic storms occurred during January 22–25, 2012 period. The geomagnetic storms are characterized by different indices and parameters. The SYM-H value on January 22 increased abruptly to 67 nT at sudden storm commencement (SSC), followed by a sharp decrease to −87 nT. A second SSC on January 24 followed by a shock on January 25 was also observed. These SSCs before the main storms and the short recovery periods imply the geomagnetic storms are CME  -driven. The sudden jump of solar wind dynamic pressure and IMF _Bz$B_z$ are also consistent with occurrence of CMEs. This is also reflected in the change in total electron content (TEC) during the storm relative to quiet days globally. The response of the ionospheric to geomagnetic storms can also be detected from wave components that account for the majority of TEC variance during the period. The dominant coherent modes of TEC variability are diurnal and semidiurnal signals which account upto 83% and 30% of the total TEC variance over fairly exclusive ionospheric regions respectively. Comparison of TEC anomalies attributed to diurnal (DW1) and semidiurnal (SW2) tides, as well as stationary planetary waves (SPW1) at 12 UTC shows enhancement in the positive anomalies following the storm. Moreover, the impact of the geomagnetic storms are distinctly marked in the daily time series of amplitudes of DW1, SW2 and SPW1. The abrupt changes in amplitudes of DW1 (5 TECU) and SW2 (2 TECU) are observed within 20°S–20°N latitude band and along 20°N respectively while that of SPW1 is about 3 TECU. Coherent oscillation with a period of 2.4 days between interplanetary magnetic field and TEC was detected during the storm. This oscillation is also detected in the amplitudes of DW1 over EIA regions in both hemispheres. Eventhough upward coupling of quasi two day wave (QTDWs) of the same periodicity, known to have caused such oscillation, are detected in both ionosphere and upper stratosphere, this one can likely be attributed to the geomagnetic storm as it happens after the storm commencement. Moreover, further analysis has indicated that QTDWs in the ionosphere are strengthened as a result of coherent oscillation of interplanetary magnetic field with the same frequency as QTDWs. On the otherhand, occurrences of minor SSW and geomagnetic storms in quick succession complicated clear demarcation of attribution of the respective events to variability of QTDWs amplitudes over upper stratosphere.     

On the large-scale structure of the tail current as measured by THEMIS

The magnetic field structure and the spatial characteristics of the large-scale currents in the magnetospheric tail were studied during quiet and moderately disturbed geomagnetic conditions in 2009. The magnetic field of the currents other than the tail current was calculated in terms of a paraboloid model of the Earth’s magnetosphere, A2000, and was subtracted from measurements. It was found on the base of obtained tail current magnetic field radial distribution that the inner edge of the tail current sheet is located in the night side magnetosphere, at distances of about 10 R_E and of about 7 R_E during quiet and disturbed periods respectively. During the disturbance of February 14, 2009 (Dst_min ∼ −35 nT), the B_x and the B_z component of the tail current magnetic field near its inner edge were about 60 nT, and −60 nT that means that strong cross-tail current have been developed. The tail current parameters at different time moments during February 14, 2009 have been estimated. Solar wind conditions during this event were consistent with those during moderate magnetic storms with minimum Dst of about −100 nT. However, the magnetospheric current systems (magnetopause and cross-tail currents) were located at larger geocentric distances than typical during the 2009 extremely quiet epoch and did not provide the expected Dst magnitude. Very small disturbance on the Earth’s surface was detected consistent with an “inflated” magnetosphere.     

Latitudinal variation of F2-region response to geomagnetic disturbance

The effect of geomagnetic storms on the F2 region was studied by calculating the deviation, ΔfoF2, of foF2 during 40 magnetic storms, ranging from moderate (Dst < −50 nT) to very intense (Dst < −200 nT) of the 21st solar cycle. In order to study the variation of storm-time foF2 with latitude, season and storm strength, ionosonde data were obtained from eight stations spanning a latitudinal range of +60–−60°. The stations chosen lay in a narrow longitudinal range of 140–151°, so that local time difference between the stations is practically negligible. The features exhibited by positive and negative phases were essentially different. The storm time ΔfoF2 clearly exhibited a latitudinal variation and this variation were found to be coupled with the seasonal variation. As for the variation with storm intensity, though ΔfoF2 was found to vary even between two storms of almost equal intensity, the amplitude of a positive or negative phase, |ΔfoF2max| showed a distinct upper limit for each intensity category of storms.     

Investigation of ionospheric response to two moderate geomagnetic storms using GPS–TEC measurements in the South American and African sectors during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

The responses of the ionospheric F region using GPS–TEC measurements during two moderate geomagnetic storms at equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions over the South American and African sectors in May 2010, during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, are investigated. The first moderate geomagnetic storm studied reached a minimum Dst value of −64 nT at 1500 UT on 02 May 2010 and the second moderate geomagnetic storm reached a minimum Dst value of −85 nT at 1400 UT on 29 May 2010. In this paper, we present vertical total electron content (VTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from the equatorial to mid-latitude regions in the South American and African sectors. Our results obtained during these two moderate geomagnetic storms from both sectors show significant positive ionospheric storms during daytime hours at the equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions during the main and recovery phases of the storms. The thermospheric wind circulation change towards the equator is a strong indicator that suggests an important mechanism is responsible for these positive phases at these regions. A pre-storm event that was observed in the African sector from low- to the mid-latitude regions on 01 May 2010 was absent in the South American sector. This study also showed that there was no generation or suppression of ionospheric irregularities by storm events. Therefore, knowledge about the suppression and generation of ionospheric irregularities during moderate geomagnetic storms is still unclear.     

Classification of solar wind structures and intense geomagnetic storm alarms with self-organizing maps

Intense geomagnetic storms (D_st < −100 nT) usually occur when a large interplanetary duskward-electric field (with Ey > 5 mV m⁻¹) lasts for more than 3 h. In this article, a self-organizing map (SOM) neural network is used to recognize different patterns in the temporal variation of hourly averaged Ey data and to predict intense storms. The input parameters of SOM are the hourly averaged Ey data over 3 h. The output layer of the SOM has a total of 400 neurons. The hourly Ey data are calculated from solar wind data, which are provided by NSSDC OMNIWeb and ACE spacecraft and contain information on 143 intense storms and a fair number of moderate storms, weak storms and quiet periods between September 3, 1966 and June 30, 2002. Our results show that SOM is able to classify solar wind structures and therefore to give timely intense storm alarms. In our SOM, 21 neurons out of 400 are identified to be closely associated with the intense storms and they successfully predict 134 intense storms out of the 143 ones selected. In particular, there are 14 neurons for which, if one or more of them are present, the occurrence probability of intense storms is about 90%. In addition, several of these 14 neurons can predict big magnetic storm (D_st  −180 nT). In summary, our method achieves high accuracy in predicting intense geomagnetic storms and could be applied in space environment prediction.     

Interplanetary shocks and geomagnetic activity during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996)

Plasma and magnetic field parameter variations through fast forward interplanetary shocks were correlated with the peak geomagnetic activity index Dst in a period from 0 to 3 days after the shock, during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996). Solar wind speed (V) and total magnetic field (B_t) were the parameters with higher correlations with peak Dst index. The correlation coefficients were higher during solar minimum (r² = 56% for V and 39% for B_t) than during solar maximum (r² = 15% for V and 12% for B_t). A statistical distribution of geomagnetic activity levels following interplanetary shocks was obtained. It was observed that during solar maximum, 36% and 28% of interplanetary shocks were followed by intense (Dst  −100 nT) and moderate (−50  Dst < −100 nT) geomagnetic activity, whereas during solar minimum 13% and 33% of the shocks were followed by intense and moderate geomagnetic activity. It can be concluded that the upstream/downstream variations of V and B_t through the shocks were the parameters better correlated with geomagnetic activity level, and during solar maximum a higher relative number of interplanetary shocks can be followed by intense geomagnetic activity than during solar minimum. One can extrapolate, for forecasting goals, that during a whole solar cycle a shock has a probability of around 50% to be followed by intense/moderate geomagnetic activity.     

Morphology of the G condition occurrence over Irkutsk

Using Irkutsk digisonde data obtained in 2003–2011, a morphological analysis of the G condition occurrence has been made. The G condition was found to occur during daylight hours in summer; in winter, it is extremely rare, and its appearance is associated with intense magnetic storms. In the years of moderate solar activity, the G condition is most frequently registered at Kp ? 4, in the forenoon. During low solar activity, it can be observed under quiet geomagnetic conditions; in most cases, local time of its appearance shifts to afternoon hours. The highest percentage of the G condition occurrence (7.7–6.4%) was recorded in June and July 2008 when the levels of solar and geomagnetic activity were abnormally low.     

Solar energetic particle events during the rise phases of solar cycles 23 and 24

We present a comparative study of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with the solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the rising phases of solar cycles (SC) 23 (1996–1998) (22 events) and 24 (2009–2011) (20 events), which are associated with type II radio bursts. Based on the SEP intensity, we divided the events into three categories, i.e. weak (intensity < 1 pfu), minor (1 pfu < intensity < 10 pfu) and major (intensity ? 10 pfu) events. We used the GOES data for the minor and major SEP events and SOHO/ERNE data for the weak SEP event. We examine the correlation of SEP intensity with flare size and CME properties. We find that most of the major SEP events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs originating close to the sun center and western-hemisphere. The fraction of halo CMEs in SC 24 is larger than the SC 23. For the minor SEP events one event in SC23 and one event in SC24 have widths < 120° and all other events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs as in the case of major SEP events. In case of weak SEP events, majority (more than 60%) of events are associated with CME width < 120°. For both the SC the average CMEs speeds are similar. For major SEP events, average CME speeds are higher in comparison to minor and weak events. The SEP event intensity and GOES X-ray flare size are poorly correlated. During the rise phase of solar cycle 23 and 24, we find north–south asymmetry in the SEP event source locations: in cycle 23 most sources are located in the south, whereas during cycle 24 most sources are located in the north. This result is consistent with the asymmetry found with sunspot area and intense flares.     

Classification and quantification of solar wind driver gases leading to intense geomagnetic storms

Classification and quantification of the interplanetary structures causing intense geomagnetic storms (Dst?≤??100?nT) that occurred during 1997–2016 are studied. The subject of this consists of solar wind parameters of seventy-three intense storms that are associated with the southward interplanetary magnetic field. About 30.14% of the storms were driven by a combination of the sheath and ejecta (S?+?E), magnetic clouds (MC) and sheath field (S) are 26% each, 10.96% by combined sheath and MCs (S?+?C), while 5.48% of the storms were driven by ejecta (E) alone. Therefore, we want to aver that for storms driven by: (1) S?+?E. The Bz is high (≥10?nT), high density (ρ) (>10?N/cm³), high plasma beta (β) (>0.8), and unspecified (i.e. high or low) structure of the plasma temperature (T) and the flow speed (V); (2) MC. The Bz is ≥10?nT, low temperature (T?≤?400,000?K), low ρ (≤10?N/cm³), high V (≥450?km), and low β (≤0.8); (3) The structures of S?+?C are similar to that of MC except that the V is low (V?≤?450?km); (4) S. The Bz is high, low T, high ρ, unspecified V, and low β; and (5) E. Is when the structures are directly opposite of the one driven by MCs except for high V. Although, westward ring current indicates intense storms, but the large intensity of geomagnetic storms is determined by the intense nature of the electric field strength and the Bz. Therefore, great storms (i.e. Dst?≤??200?nT) are manifestation of high electric field strength (≥13?mV/m).     

Space storm measurements of the July 2005 solar extreme events from the low corona to the Earth

The Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing (ANMODAP) Center recorded an unusual Forbush decrease with a sharp enhancement of cosmic ray intensity right after the main phase of the Forbush decrease on 16 July 2005, followed by a second decrease within less than 12 h. This exceptional event is neither a ground level enhancement nor a geomagnetic effect in cosmic rays. It rather appears as the effect of a special structure of interplanetary disturbances originating from a group of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the 13–14 July 2005 period. The initiation of the CMEs was accompanied by type IV radio bursts and intense solar flares (SFs) on the west solar limb (AR 786); this group of energetic phenomena appears under the label of Solar Extreme Events of July 2005. We study the characteristics of these events using combined data from Earth (the ARTEMIS IV radioheliograph, the Athens Neutron Monitor (ANMODAP)), space (WIND/WAVES) and data archives. We propose an interpretation of the unusual Forbush profile in terms of a magnetic structure and a succession of interplanetary shocks interacting with the magnetosphere.     

Helio-geomagnetic influence in cardiological cases

The effects of the energetic phenomena of the Sun, flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on the Earth’s ionosphere–magnetosphere, through the solar wind, are the sources of the geomagnetic disturbances and storms collectively known as Space Weather. The research on the influence of Space Weather on biological and physiological systems is open. In this work we study the Space Weather   impact on Acute Coronary Syndromes (ACS) distinguishing between ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (STE–ACS) and non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE–ACS) cases. We compare detailed patient records from the 2nd Cardiologic Department of the General Hospital of Nicaea (Piraeus, Greece) with characteristics of geomagnetic storms (_DST${\mathrm{D}}_{\mathit{ST}}$), solar wind speed and statistics of flares and CMEs which cover the entire solar cycle 23 (1997–2007). Our results indicate a relationship of ACS to helio-geomagnetic activity as the maximum of the ACS cases follows closely the maximum of the solar cycle. Furthermore, within very active periods, the ratio NSTE–ACS to STE–ACS, which is almost constant during periods of low to medium activity, changes favouring the NSTE–ACS. Most of the ACS cases exhibit a high degree of association with the recovery phase of the geomagnetic storms; a smaller, yet significant, part was found associated with periods of fast solar wind without a storm.     

Coronal mass ejections acceleration problem

A statistical study of acceleration and its error of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) is performed. A total of 5594 CMEs events have been analyzed by using a least-square method and using the error in the height measures. We verify that slower CMEs (velocities in the interval from 200 to 500 km s⁻¹) tend to have a positive acceleration (about 1 m s⁻²) at heights above 5 solar radii, while less than 10% CMEs show an average negative acceleration (about −2.2 m s⁻²) as they propagate from 5 to 30 solar radii. For most individual CMEs one can not say if they are accelerated or decelerated, only for 8% of all observed CMEs events one can extract the sign of the acceleration in the 5–30 solar radii.