Comparison of the transport codes HZETRN,HETC and FLUKA for galactic cosmic rays

The HZETRN deterministic radiation code is one of several tools developed to analyze the effects of harmful galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events on mission planning and shielding for astronauts and instrumentation. This paper is a comparison study involving the two Monte Carlo transport codes, HETC–HEDS and FLUKA and the deterministic transport code, HZETRN. Each code is used to transport an ion from the 1977 solar minimum GCR spectrum impinging upon a 20 g/cm² aluminum slab followed by a 30 g/cm² water slab. This research is part of a systematic effort of verification and validation to quantify the accuracy of HZETRN and determine areas where it can be improved. Comparisons of dose and dose equivalent values at various depths in the water slab are presented in this report. This is followed by a comparison of the proton and forward, backward and total neutron flux at various depths in the water slab. Comparisons of the secondary light ion ²H, ³H, ³He and ⁴He fluxes are also examined.     

Galactic cosmic ray modulation for sunspot cycle 23

We present a study of the galactic cosmic ray modulation for sunspot cycle 23. We use the monthly and the annual mean hourly, pressure corrected, data from neutron monitors of the global network (monthly rate is calculated as the average of the hourly pressure corrected values). We draw attention to an asymmetry in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery during odd and even cycles for the monthly mean hourly rate data. For over half a century of observations, we find that the recovery for the odd cycles is to a higher level than for the even cycles. Qualitatively the effect is ascribed to charged particle drifts in inhomogeneous interplanetary magnetic field. Even so it has not been possible to arrive at a quantitative, self-consistent, explanation in terms of drifts at higher and lower GCR rigidities. We also study the rigidity dependence of the amplitude of 11-year modulation over a wide range (1–200 GV) of GCR spectrum; it is a power law in rigidity with an exponent −1.22. We discuss the implication of these findings on quasi-linear diffusion theories of modulation. We reflect on GCR recovery pattern for 2006–2009.     

Stratospheric polar vortex as a possible reason for temporal variations of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray effects on the lower atmosphere circulation

Possible reasons for the temporal instability of long-term effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations on the lower atmosphere circulation were studied. It was shown that the detected earlier ∼60-year oscillations of the amplitude and sign of SA/GCR effects on the troposphere pressure at high and middle latitudes (Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, Adv.Space Res., 2012) are closely related to the state of a cyclonic vortex forming in the polar stratosphere. The intensity of the vortex was found to reveal a roughly 60-year periodicity affecting the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the character of SA/GCR effects. An intensification of both Arctic anticyclones and mid-latitudinal cyclones associated with an increase of GCR fluxes at minima of the 11-year solar cycles is observed in the epochs of a strong polar vortex. In the epochs of a weak polar vortex SA/GCR effects on the development of baric systems at middle and high latitudes were found to change the sign. The results obtained provide evidence that the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray influences on the lower atmosphere circulation involves changes in the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex.     

The structure of the solar cycle maximum phase in the galactic cosmic ray 11-year variation

Two phenomena connected with the maximum phase of the 11-year solar cycle in the galactic cosmic ray intensity – the change in the energy dependence of the intensity variations and the double-peak structure in the intensity modulation time profile – are considered for the last five solar cycles (Nos. 19–23). The distinct 22-year cycle in the magnitude of the so called energy hysteresis is observed.The periods of the solar cycle maximum phase in the galactic cosmic ray intensity, characterized by the specific energy dependence of the intensity, are estimated. It is found that the double-peak structures belonging to the solar cycle maximum phase and those around it are very similar both in the amplitude and in its energy dependence.     

Study of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity and anisotropy

We demonstrate that the general features of the radial and azimuthal components of the anisotropy of galactic cosmic rays can be studied by the harmonic analysis method using data from an individual neutron monitor with cut off rigidity <5 GV. In particular, we study the characteristics of the 27-day (solar rotation period) variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity and anisotropy, solar wind velocity, interplanetary magnetic field strength and sunspot number. The amplitudes of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy are greater, and the phases more clearly established, in A > 0 polarity periods than in A < 0 polarity periods at times of minimum solar activity. The phases of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic rays intensity and anisotropy are opposite with respect to the similar changes of the solar wind velocity in A > 0 polarity periods. No significant dependence of the amplitude of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy on the tilt angle of the heliospheric neutral sheet is found. Daily epicyclegrams obtained by Chree’s method show that the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy during A > 0 polarity periods follow elliptical paths with the major axes oriented approximately along the interplanetary magnetic field. The paths are more irregular during A < 0 polarity periods.     

Pion and electromagnetic contribution to dose: Comparisons of HZETRN to Monte Carlo results and ISS data

Recent work has indicated that pion production and the associated electromagnetic (EM) cascade may be an important contribution to the total astronaut exposure in space. Recent extensions to the deterministic space radiation transport code, HZETRN, allow the production and transport of pions, muons, electrons, positrons, and photons. In this paper, the extended code is compared to the Monte Carlo codes, Geant4, PHITS, and FLUKA, in slab geometries exposed to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) boundary conditions. While improvements in the HZETRN transport formalism for the new particles are needed, it is shown that reasonable agreement on dose is found at larger shielding thicknesses commonly found on the International Space Station (ISS). Finally, the extended code is compared to ISS data on a minute-by-minute basis over a seven day period in 2001. The impact of pion/EM production on exposure estimates and validation results is clearly shown. The Badhwar–O’Neill (BO) 2004 and 2010 models are used to generate the GCR boundary condition at each time-step allowing the impact of environmental model improvements on validation results to be quantified as well. It is found that the updated BO2010 model noticeably reduces overall exposure estimates from the BO2004 model, and the additional production mechanisms in HZETRN provide some compensation. It is shown that the overestimates provided by the BO2004 GCR model in previous validation studies led to deflated uncertainty estimates for environmental, physics, and transport models, and allowed an important physical interaction (π/EM) to be overlooked in model development. Despite the additional π/EM production mechanisms in HZETRN, a systematic under-prediction of total dose is observed in comparison to Monte Carlo results and measured data.     

空间辐射场蒙特卡罗模拟计算方法研究

对利用蒙特卡罗方法对由银河宇宙射线引起的空间辐射场各成分进行计算的方法进行了调研,对计算模型的建立以及计算过程中通常使用的方差减小技术进行分析,给出了美国的Roesler等人利用FLUKA程序以及加拿大Anid等人利用MCNPX程序计算得到的由银河宇宙射线引起的空间辐射场各量值及其与实验结果的比较,验证了计算方法与计算模型的可靠性。对任意航线空间辐射场剂量分布预评估方法进行分析,给出了由银河宇宙射线引起的空间辐射场的基本特征。     

Perspective on space radiation for space flights in 2020–2040

The Sun undergoes several well known periodicities in activity, such as the Schwabe 11 year cycle, the Gleissberg 80–90 year cycle, the Suess 200–210 year cycle and the Halstatt 2200–2300 year cycle. In addition, there is evidence that the 20th century levels of solar activity are unusually high. The years 2020–2040 are expected to coincide with increased activity in human space flight beyond low Earth orbit. The solar cycles and the present level of solar activity are reviewed and their activities during the years 2020–2040 are discussed with a perspective on space radiation and the future program of space flight. It is prudent to prepare for continuing levels of high solar activity as well as for the low levels of the current deep minimum, which has corresponded to high galactic cosmic ray flux.     

Comparison of organ dose and dose equivalent for human phantoms of CAM vs. MAX

For the evaluation of organ dose and dose equivalent of astronauts on space shuttle and the International Space Station (ISS) missions, the CAMERA models of CAM (Computerized Anatomical Male) and CAF (Computerized Anatomical Female) of human tissue shielding have been implemented and used in radiation transport model calculations at NASA. One of new human geometry models to meet the “reference person” of International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) is based on detailed Voxel (volumetric and pixel) phantom models denoted for male and female as MAX (Male Adult voXel) and FAX (Female Adult voXel), respectively. We compared the CAM model predictions of organ doses to those of MAX model, since the MAX model represents the male adult body with much higher fidelity than the CAM model currently used at NASA. Directional body-shielding mass was evaluated for over 1500 target points of MAX for specified organs considered to be sensitive to the induction of stochastic effects. Radiation exposures to solar particle event (SPE), trapped protons, and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) were assessed at the specific sites in the MAX phantom by coupling space radiation transport models with the relevant body-shielding mass. The development of multiple-point body-shielding distributions at each organ made it possible to estimate the mean and variance of organ doses at the specific organ. For the estimate of doses to the blood forming organs (BFOs), data on active marrow distributions in adult were used to weight the bone marrow sites over the human body. The discrete number of target points of MAX organs resulted in a reduced organ dose and dose equivalent compared to the results of CAM organs especially for SPE, and should be further investigated. Differences of effective doses between the two approaches were found to be small (<5%) for GCR.     

Challenges to cosmic ray modeling: From beyond the solar wind termination shock

Voyager 1 crossed the solar wind termination shock on December 16, 2004 at a distance of 94 AU from the Sun, to become the first spacecraft to explore the termination shock region and to enter the heliosheath, the final heliospheric frontier. By the end of 2006, Voyager 1 will be at ∼101 AU, with Voyager 2 at ∼81 AU and still approaching the termination shock. Both spacecraft have been observing the modulation of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays since their launch in 1977. The recent observations close to or inside the heliosheath have provided several interesting ‘surprises’ with subsequent theoretical and modeling challenges. Examples are: what does the modulation of galactic cosmic rays amount to in this region?; how do the anomalous cosmic rays get accelerated and modulated?; why are there ‘breaks’ in the power-law slopes of the spectra of accelerated particles? Several numerical models have been applied to most of these topics over the years and comprehensive global predictions have been made the past decade, thought to be based on reasonable assumptions about the termination shock and the heliosheath. Examples of these predictions and assumptions are concisely discussed within the context of the main observed features of cosmic rays in the vicinity of the termination shock, ending with a discussion of some of the issues and challenges to cosmic ray modeling in particular.     

Mean energy of response to galactic cosmic ray spectrum: IMP 8 and Climax neutron monitor

Solar modulations of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity contain a wealth of information about their transport in the heliosphere. To extract this information from the data one studies the dependence of the observed modulations on the mean energy of response of detectors providing data for the analyses. There is a great deal of confusion about the detector energy response to GCR spectrum in the literature. We present a preliminary report on the computations of the mean energy of response for the Climax neutron monitor (CL/NM) and IMP 8 cosmic ray nuclear composition instrument to GCR protons for 1973–1998, covering the solar cycles 21 and 22. We find that for penetrating proton channel on IMP 8 the mean energy changes by a factor of over two whereas for the neutron monitor the change is only 21%. However, the corresponding change for the computed modulation function is a factor of about 3.5.     

Eccentric dipole approximation of the geomagnetic field: Application to cosmic ray computations

A comparison of the full IGRF model of the geomagnetic field with two simplified models, the truncated IGRF and the eccentric dipole model, is performed. The simplified models were found to provide a reasonable approximation for the large scale geomagnetic field distribution. In the application of the simplified geomagnetic models to the shielding of cosmic rays in the magnetosphere as quantified via the geomagnetic cut-off rigidity, the eccentric dipole and the truncated IGRF provide a good large scale view. The use of the simplified model does not introduce any additional systematic errors at the global scale but may be a source of moderate uncertainty at the regional scale in the tropical Atlantic region. This study quantitatively validates the use of such simplified geomagnetic models when describing the shielding of cosmic rays in the magnetosphere.     

Effects of geomagnetic secular variations on cosmic ray access to the terrestrial environment

Taking advantage of the cutoff computations performed for more than a hundred locations from 1955 to 1995 [every 5 years; Shea, M.A., Smart, D.F. Vertical cutoff rigidities for cosmic ray stations since 1955, in: Proceedings of the ICRC 2001, Hamburg, Copernicus Gesellschaft, vol. 10, pp. 4063–4066, 2001], we carefully checked the relationship between the vertical cutoff rigidity and the McIlwain parameter introduced by Shea et al. [Shea, M.A., Smart, D.F., Gentile, L.C. Estimating cosmic ray vertical cutoff rigidities as a function of the McIlwain L-parameter for different epochs of the geomagnetic field. Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 48, 200–205, 1987]. We derived an updated algorithm that can be used outside the polar and equatorial regions, avoiding time consuming computations. Results for the European area and 1990 epoch suggest that the fast evaluation is accurate within 0.1 GV in 26 out of the 30 considered locations.     

Contributions from nearby pulsars to the local cosmic ray electron spectrum

PSR J0437-4715 is one of the closest millisecond pulsars (MSPs) to Earth, lying at a distance of ∼140 pc. This pulsar has a characteristic age of 4.9 Gyr and a relatively low spindown power of ∼10³⁴ ergs/s. During its rather long lifetime, a large fraction of the energy output has been in the form of multi-TeV electrons. In this paper, we investigate the possible contribution of this nearby MSP to the local interstellar electron spectrum (LIS). The old age of the system justifies a steady-state evaluation of the contribution from this pulsar to the LIS. We calculate the electron spectrum at the light cylinder in the framework of a General Relativistic polar cap (PC) model, and use this as an injection spectrum in a diffusion model. The younger Geminga pulsar is also very close to Earth and warrants investigation. A steady-state approach is however no longer justified, so we use an impulsive injection model. We will present results of a study of the contribution from these pulsars to the cosmic ray (CR) LIS. Our calculations show that pulsars like Geminga can make a non-negligible contribution to the LIS.     

Sunspot numbers,interplanetary magnetic field,and cosmic ray intensity at earth: Nexus for the twentieth century

The pivotal role played by the interplanetary magnetic field (B) in modulating galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity in the heliosphere is described. We show that the inverse correlation observed by Forbush (1958) between GCRs and sunspot numbers (SSNs) is reflected in high correlation between SSNs and B (cc = 0.94). The SSN data are available since 1700 and the derived B data since 1835. The paleo-cosmic ray data are available for several millennia in the form of ¹⁰Be radionuclide sequestered in polar ice. The data of the ion chambers (ICs) at the Cheltenham–Fredericksburg–Yakutsk (CFY) sites are combined to create a data string for 1937–1988. In turn, these data are used to extend the measurements of the low energy GCR ions (>0.1 GeV) at balloon altitudes at high latitudes in Russia to 1937. These data are then correlated to B and the fit parameters are used to extend the low energy ion data to 1900, creating the instrumental era GCR time series for the twentieth century. The derived GCR time series is compared to ¹⁰Be measured at two sites in Greenland, namely Dye 3 and NGRIP for 1900–2000 to check the internal consistency of datasets for the long-term trend. We find that the annual mean rate (%) for 1965 at NGRIP is an outlier. We replace it with the mean of 1964 and 1965 rates and construct a new re-normalized time series at NGIP, improving the agreement with the derived instrumental era GCR time series for the twentieth century as well. This should encourage its use by heliophysics community for varied applications.     

Method for the prediction of the effective dose equivalent to the crew of the International Space Station

This paper describes a methodology for assessing the pre-mission exposure of space crew aboard the International Space Station (ISS) in terms of an effective dose equivalent. In this approach, the PHITS Monte Carlo code was used to assess the particle transport of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and trapped radiation for solar maximum and minimum conditions through an aluminum shield thickness. From these predicted spectra, and using fluence-to-dose conversion factors, a scaling ratio of the effective dose equivalent rate to the ICRU ambient dose equivalent rate at a 10 mm depth was determined. Only contributions from secondary neutrons, protons, and alpha particles were considered in this analysis.