Practical method to identify orbital anomaly as spacecraft breakup in the geostationary region

Identifying spacecraft breakup events is an essential issue for better understanding of the current orbital debris environment. This paper proposes an observation planning approach to identify an orbital anomaly, which appears as a significant discontinuity in archived orbital history, as a spacecraft breakup. The proposed approach is applicable to orbital anomalies in the geostationary region. The proposed approach selects a spacecraft that experienced an orbital anomaly, and then predicts trajectories of possible fragments of the spacecraft at an observation epoch. This paper theoretically demonstrates that observation planning for the possible fragments can be conducted. To do this, long-term behaviors of the possible fragments are evaluated. It is concluded that intersections of their trajectories will converge into several corresponding regions in the celestial sphere even if the breakup epoch is not specified and it has uncertainty of the order of several weeks.     

Primary mass discrimination of high energy cosmic rays using PNN and k-NN methods

Probabilistic neural network (PNN) and k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) methods are widely used data classification techniques. In this paper, these two methods have been used to classify the Extensive Air Shower (EAS) data sets which were simulated using the CORSIKA code for three primary cosmic rays. The primaries are proton, oxygen and iron nuclei at energies of 100?TeV–10?PeV. This study is performed in the following of the investigations into the primary cosmic ray mass sensitive observables. We propose a new approach for measuring the mass sensitive observables of EAS in order to improve the primary mass separation. In this work, the EAS observables measurement has performed locally instead of total measurements. Also the relationships between the included number of observables in the classification methods and the prediction accuracy have been investigated. We have shown that the local measurements and inclusion of more mass sensitive observables in the classification processes can improve the classifying quality and also we have shown that muons and electrons energy density can be considered as primary mass sensitive observables in primary mass classification. Also it must be noted that this study is performed for Tehran observation level without considering the details of any certain EAS detection array.     

Auroral Electrojet Event Associated With Magnetospheric Substorms

The auroral electrojet index is an important index in monitoring and predicting substorms. A substorms usually includes auroral breakup, auroral electrojet event marked by AE increase, energetic particle injection at geosynchronous orbit, mid-low latitude Pi2, etc. However the question whether an auroral electrojet event corresponds to a substorm remains unanswered. Using the auroral electrojet index in 2004, we analyzed five auroral electrojet events and studied their relation with substorms. The results show that there are three kinds of auroral electrojet events: (1) simultaneous rapid increase of westward auroral electrojet and eastward auroral electrojet; (2) rapid increase of westward auroral electrojet and almost unchangeable eastward auroral electrojet; (3) rapid increase of eastward auroral electrojet and almost unchangeable westward auroral electrojet. Most of auroral electrojet events correspond to substorms. However a few auroral electrojet events are not accompanied by substorms. This situation most often occurs for the auroral electrojet event in which eastward auroral electrojet dominates.      

Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

Interpretation of the SOHO/UVCS observations of two CME-driven shocks

We report on the analysis of two fast CME-driven shocks observed with the UltraViolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). The first event, detected on 2002 March 22 at 4.1 R_⊙ with the UVCS slit placed in correspondence with the flank of the expanding CME surface, represents the highest UV detection of a shock obtained so far with the UVCS instrument in the corona. The second one, detected on 2002 July 23 at 1.6 R_⊙ with the UVCS slit placed in correspondence with the front of the expanding CME surface, shows an anomalous deficiency of ion heating with respect to what observed in previous CME/shocks observed by UVCS, possibly reflecting the effect of different coronal plasma conditions over the solar cycle. From the two different sets of observations we derived an estimate for the shock compression ratio X, which turns out to be X = 2.4 ± 0.2 and X = 2.2 ± 0.1, respectively, for the first and second event. Comparison between the two events provides complementary perspectives on the dynamical evolution of CME-driven shocks.     

The photometric study of light scattering from the surface of alumina powder and interpretations by Hapke formula

A laboratory experiment helps to understand the light scattering property of regolith like samples with known compositions and other physical parameters. The laboratory data so obtained can be compared with the existing in situ data on celestial objects like asteroids. Further, it may be analyzed with the help of various theoretical models to understand the light scattering processes from regolith more clearly. In this work we have performed laboratory based photometry of the light scattered from the surfaces of powdered alumina (Al₂O₃) at various tilt angles of the sample and at large phase angles, with the particles having diameter 0.3 μm. The wavelength of observation was 632.8 nm. These data have been fitted by a surface scattering model originally suggested by Hapke. Instead of using empirical Henyey–Greenstein phase function to fix the values of albedo and phase function to be used within Hapke formula, we have used Mie theory for the same. This approach helped us to determine the single particle properties such as particle diameter and complex refractive index from surface scattering phase curve alone. Mie theory depends only on the size parameter X(=2π(radius/wavelength)) and complex refractive index (n, k) of the material. Since the absorption coefficient (k) for alumina is known to be very low but not exactly zero, the best fit to the experimental data was obtained by least square technique with k as a free parameter, as the other parameters are known. Finally, we compare our results with other published results and discuss the scope of application of the method we adopted.     

基于生成对抗网络的航天异常事件检测方法

航天环境复杂,技术难度大,风险高,安全可靠性要求苛刻。航天异常事件样本少,且难以获取,有针对性地开展异常事件检测（AED）很有必要。为预防航天事故,尽早发现可能导致故障的异常事件,深入研究了最新人工智能和生成对抗网络（GAN）技术,提出了一种基于生成对抗网络的航天异常事件检测方法。使用正生成对抗网络模拟生成正常事件样本,训练反生成对抗网络模拟生成异常事件样本,设计合理算法训练测试,计算输入事件与正生成对抗网络生成的模拟正常事件欧氏距离,以及输入事件与反生成对抗网络生成的模拟异常事件的欧氏距离差,实现对异常事件的精确检测。通过在美国国家标准与技术研究所数据库（MNIST）数据集全部使用正常数据训练,并对异常事件检测性能进行了试验验证,试验结果表明:在MNIST数据集下,精确率和召回率综合评价指标（F1）及精确率和召回率曲线下面积（PRC）等关键技术指标比变分自动编码器（VAE）方法相应指标性能至少分别提升了31%和11%。在真实环境下采集的模拟航天音频数据试验,异常事件检测性能良好,进一步证实了所提方法真实可用。      

Statistical properties of the most powerful solar and heliospheric disturbances

We present and discuss here the first version of a data base of extreme solar and heliospheric events. The data base contains now 87 extreme events mostly since 1940. An event is classified as extreme if one of the three critical parameters passed a lower limit. The critical parameters were the X-ray flux (parameter R), solar proton flux (parameter S) and geomagnetic disturbance level (parameter G). We find that the five strongest extreme events based on four variables (X-rays SEP, Dst, Ap) are completely separate except for the October 2003 event which is one the five most extreme events according to SEP, Dst and Ap. This underlines the special character of the October 2003 event, making it unique within 35 years. We also find that the events based on R and G are rather separate, indicating that the location of even extreme flares on the solar disk is important for geomagnetic effects. We also find that S = 3 events are not extreme in the same sense as R > 3 and G > 3 events, while S = 5 events are missing so far. This suggests that it might be useful to rescale the classification of SEP fluxes.     

Ozone variability related to several SEP events occurring during solar cycle no. 23

Data from geostationary operational environmental satellite (GOES) series were used to identify intense solar energetic particle (SEP) events occurred during the solar activity cycle no. 23. We retrieved O₃, NO, NO₂, HNO₃, OH, HCl and OHCl profiles coming from different satellite sensors (solar occultation and limb emission) and we looked for the mesospheric/stratospheric response to SEPs at high terrestrial latitudes. The chemistry of the minor atmospheric components is analysed to evaluate the associated odd nitrogen (NO_x) and odd hydrogen (HO_x) production, able to cause short (h) and medium (days) term ozone variations. We investigated the effects of SEPs on the polar atmosphere in three different seasons, i.e., January 2005, April 2002 and July 2000. The inter-hemispheric variability of the ozone, induced by the SEP series of January 2005, has been compared with the effects connected both to larger and quite similar events. We found that during SEP events: (i) solar illumination is the key factor driving SEP-induced effects on the chemistry of the polar atmosphere; (ii) even events with limited particle flux in the range 15–40 MeV are able to change the abundance of the minor constituents in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere.     

Comparing proton fluxes of central meridian SEP events with those predicted by SOLPENCO

We have developed an operational code, SOLPENCO, that can be used for space weather prediction schemes of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. SOLPENCO provides proton differential flux and cumulated fluence profiles from the onset of the event up to the arrival of the associated traveling interplanetary shock at the observer’s position (either 1.0 or 0.4 AU). SOLPENCO considers a variety of interplanetary scenarios where the SEP events develop. These scenarios include solar longitudes of the parent solar event ranging from E75 to W90, transit speeds of the associated shock ranging from 400 to 1700 km s⁻¹, proton energies ranging from 0.125 to 64 MeV, and interplanetary conditions for the energetic particle transport characterized by specific mean free paths. We compare the results of SOLPENCO with flux measurements of a set of SEP events observed at 1 AU that fulfill the following four conditions: (1) the association between the interplanetary shock observed at 1 AU and the parent solar event is well established; (2) the heliolongitude of the active region site is within 30° of the Sun–Earth line; (3) the event shows a significant proton flux increase at energies below 96 MeV; (4) the pre-event intensity background is low. The results are discussed in terms of the transit velocity of the shock and the proton energy. We draw conclusions about both the use of SOLPENCO as a prediction tool and the required improvements to make it useful for space weather purposes.     

Substorms in the inner plasma sheet

Thin Current Sheets (TCS) are regularly formed prior to substorm breakup, even in the near-Earth plasma sheet, as close as the geostationary orbit. A self-consistent kinetic theory describing the response of the plasma sheet to an electromagnetic perturbation is given. This perturbation corresponds to an external forcing, for instance caused by the solar wind (not an internal instability). The equilibrium of the configuration of this TCS in the presence of a time varying perturbation is shown to produce a strong parallel thermal anisotropy (T T) of energetic electrons and ions (E>50keV) as well as an enhanced diamagnetic current carried by low energy ions (E<50keV). Both currents tend to enhance the confinement of this current sheet near the magnetic equator. These results are compared with data gathered by GEOS-2 at the geostationary orbit, where the magnetic signatures of TCS, and parallel anisotropics are regularly observed prior to breakup. By ensuring quasi-neutrality everywhere we find, when low frequency electromagnetic perturbations are applied, that although the magnetic field line remains an equipotential to the lowest order in T_e/T_i, a field-aligned potential drop exists to the next order in (T_e/T_i). Thus the development of a TCS implies the formation of a field-aligned potential drop ( few hundred volts) to ensure the quasi-neutrality everywhere. For an earthward directed pressure gradient, a field-aligned electric field, directed towards the ionosphere, is obtained, on the western edge of the perturbation (i.e. western edge of the current sheet). Thus field aligned beams of electrons are expected to flow towards the equatorial region on the western edge of the current sheet. We study the stability of these electron beams and show that they are unstable to “High Frequency” (HF) waves. These “HF” waves are regularly observed at frequencies of the order of the proton gyrofrequency (f_H+) just before, or at breakup. The amplitude of these HF waves is so large that they can produce a strong pitch-angle diffusion of energetic ions and a spatial diffusion that leads to a reduction of the diamagnetic current. The signature of a fast ion diffusion is indeed regularly observed during the early breakup; it coincides with the sudden development of large amplitude transient fluctuations, ballooning modes, observed at much lower frequencies (fH+). These results suggest that the HF waves, generated by field-aligned electron beams, provide the dissipation which is necessary to destabilize low frequency (ballooning) modes.     

Astrometric positioning and orbit determination of geostationary satellites

In the project titled “Astrometric Positioning of Geostationary Satellite” (PASAGE), carried out by the Real Instituto y Observatorio de la Armada (ROA), optical observation techniques were developed to allow satellites to be located in the geostationary ring with angular accuracies of up to a few tenths of an arcsec. These techniques do not necessarily require the use of large telescopes or especially dark areas, and furthermore, because optical observation is a passive method, they could be directly applicable to the detection and monitoring of passive objects such as space debris in the geostationary ring.     

Genetic algorithm for TEC seismo-ionospheric anomalies detection around the time of the Solomon (Mw = 8.0) earthquake of 06 February 2013

On 6 February 2013, at 12:12:27 local time (01:12:27 UTC) a seismic event registering M_w 8.0 struck the Solomon Islands, located at the boundaries of the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates. Time series prediction is an important and widely interesting topic in the research of earthquake precursors. This paper describes a new computational intelligence approach to detect the unusual variations of the total electron content (TEC) seismo-ionospheric anomalies induced by the powerful Solomon earthquake using genetic algorithm (GA). The GA detected a considerable number of anomalous occurrences on earthquake day and also 7 and 8 days prior to the earthquake in a period of high geomagnetic activities. In this study, also the detected TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed TEC anomalies by applying the mean, median, wavelet, Kalman filter, ARIMA, neural network and support vector machine methods. The accordance in the final results of all eight methods is a convincing indication for the efficiency of the GA method. It indicates that GA can be an appropriate non-parametric tool for anomaly detection in a non linear time series showing the seismo-ionospheric precursors variations.     

Solar magnetic feature detection and tracking for space weather monitoring

We present an automated system for detecting, tracking, and cataloging emerging active regions throughout their evolution and decay using SOHO Michelson Doppler Interferometer (MDI) magnetograms. The SolarMonitor Active Region Tracking (SMART) algorithm relies on consecutive image differencing to remove both quiet-Sun and transient magnetic features, and region-growing techniques to group flux concentrations into classifiable features. We determine magnetic properties such as region size, total flux, flux imbalance, flux emergence rate, Schrijver’s R-value, R^∗ (a modified version of R), and Falconer’s measurement of non-potentiality. A persistence algorithm is used to associate developed active regions with emerging flux regions in previous measurements, and to track regions beyond the limb through multiple solar rotations. We find that the total number and area of magnetic regions on disk vary with the sunspot cycle. While sunspot numbers are a proxy to the solar magnetic field, SMART offers a direct diagnostic of the surface magnetic field and its variation over timescale of hours to years. SMART will form the basis of the active region extraction and tracking algorithm for the Heliophysics Integrated Observatory (HELIO).     

Gamma ray bursts: Short vs. long

Short and long GRBs are thought to be two distinct classes based on their different duration and spectrum. Through the spectral analysis of two similarly selected samples of BATSE short and long GRBs, we show that short GRBs are harder than long events, confirming what found from the comparison of their hardness ratio. However, this spectral diversity seems to be due to a harder low energy spectral component of short GRBs, rather than a (slightly higher) peak energy. Interestingly short GRBs have a spectrum which is similar to the spectrum of the emission of the first 1–2 s of long events. We find evidence that short GRBs are inconsistent with the E_peak–E_iso correlation defined by long bursts while they follow the same E_peak–L_iso correlation of long GRBs. These results, coupled to the similar variability timescale of short events and the first seconds of long ones, suggest that a common (or similar) dissipation mechanism could operate in both classes. The difference in the duration would then be due mainly to the central engine lifetime.     

The global response of terrestrial ionosphere to the December 2015 space weather event

This paper investigates the ionospheric storm of December 19–21, 2015, which was initiated by two successive CME eruptions that caused a G3 space weather event. We used the in situ electron density (N_e) and electron temperature (T_e) and the Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements from SWARM-A satellite, as well as the O/N₂ observations from TIMED/GUVI to study the ionospheric impact. The observations reveal the longitudinal and hemispherical differences in the ionospheric response to the storm event. A positive ionospheric storm was observed over the American, African and Asian regions on 20 December, and the next day showed a negative storm. Both these exhibited hemispheric differences. A positive storm was observed over the East Pacific region on 21 December. It is seen that the net effect of both the disturbance dynamo electric field and composition differences become important in explaining the observed variability in topside ionospheric densities. In addition, we also discuss the T_e variations that occurred as a consequence of the space weather event.     

基于航天器解体事件的空间碎片寿命算法

研究了针对航天器解体事件所生成的空间碎片的寿命计算方法.给出了基于NASA标准航天器解体模型的航天器解体算法.该算法生成的一系列碎片参数,将作为寿命计算的初始条件.总结了现有求解碎片寿命的算法,并提出了一种半分析算法.该算法运用平均根数法的思路,计算了在J2摄动项的影响下,碎片的半长轴和偏心率的变化率;并采用微分积分法预报半长轴和偏心率随时间的变化.为了适应时变大气模型,该算法限制了计算步长.通过与数值法的比较分析了算法的计算速度和精度.选用了3种大气模型:SA76、GOST和MSIS-00,分析了不同大气模型在计算碎片寿命之间的差异.通过与P-78卫星解体事件的实测数据对比验证了整个算法的正确性.