变量多重相关性对主成分分析的危害

证实了主成分分析完全无法消除变量系统的多重相关性和重叠信息不良影响，指出变量多重相关性无论从方向上还是从数量上都会扭曲主成分分析的客观结论，由此得知，在进行主成分分析之前，对变量系统的选择必须是极其慎重的。     

基于PCA方法对太阳活动区主要参量的分析

太阳耀斑与太阳质子事件的发生通常与太阳活动区存在非常密切的关系, 对这种关系的深入分析有助于太阳耀斑和太阳质子事件预报模型的建立. 本文利用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)方法对1997-2010年太阳质子事件所在活动区的主要参量进行分析, 选取的参量包括黑子磁分类、 McIntosh分类、太阳黑子群面积、10.7 cm射电流量、耀斑指数、质子耀斑位置和软X射线耀斑强度. 结果得到81个太阳活动主成分得分值排序(得分值代表每个事件的强弱), 与太阳质子事件峰值流量、太阳黑子年均值以及10.7 cm射电流量年均值的对比显示相似度非常高, 表明主成分得分值一定程度上可以反映太阳活动的强弱规律.     

Options for mapping foF2

Available long-term and near-real time global and regional maps of foF2 are examined in relation to telecommunication and aeronomy requirements and recommendations are made for the best present-day maps to adopt. In particular, it is shown that current CCIR maps do not meet all requirements and should not necessarily be regarded as standards against which other mappings should be compared.     

A different view of the ionospheric winter anomaly

The Winter Anomaly (WA) is an ionospheric phenomenon, particularly related to the F2-layer, that is classically defined as the situation in which the ionization level during winter is higher than during summer for a certain location. This situation is anomalous because it contradicts what would be naturally expected with summer’s ionization levels higher than winter ones. This phenomenon has been a matter of study since the early decades of the XX century.This contribution tackles the study of the WA based on long time series (up to two solar cycles) of Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements over a globally distributed network of stations. The work done relies on a threefold strategy including: a classical approach based on the comparison of the winter and summer maximum TEC values, that confirmed the results previously documented; an intermediate approach with maximum TEC values modelled as linear functions of the solar radiation level, that allowed to identify stations where the WA is likely to be observed (and at what solar radiation level) and where is not; a final original approach where the maximum TEC values are modelled using Chapman’s function for the seasonal variations, linear regressions for the solar activity dependence and the introduction of site and month dependent equivalent ionization coefficients for the remaining effects. The main conclusions are that the coefficients for winter months seem to depend mainly on geomagnetic latitude, to increase towards high latitudes and to be asymmetric between hemisphere. In accordance to these findings, the occurrences of WA effects would be regulated by proper combinations of these three effects.     

Mapping seasonal trends of electron temperature in the topside ionosphere based on DEMETER data

The diurnal, seasonal and latitudinal variations of the electron temperature in the Earth‘s topside ionosphere during relatively low solar activity period of 2005 – 2008 are investigated. In order to examine seasonal variations and morphology of the topside ionospheric plasma temperature, CNES micro-satellite DEMETER ISL data are used. Presented study is oriented on the dataset gathered in 2005 and 2008. Within conducted analysis, global maps of electron temperature for months of equinoxes and solstices have been developed. Furthermore, simultaneous studies on two-dimensional time series based on DEMETER measurements and predictions obtained with the IRI-2012 model supply examination of the topside ionosphere during recent deep solar minimum. Comparison with the IRI-2012 model reveals discrepancies between data and prediction, that are especially prominent during the periods of very low solar activity.     

GNSS电离层模型改正精度评估与分析

电离层时延误差是导航定位信号在空间传播路径上的主要误差源之一,因此全面了解GNSS电离层模型的改正精度具有一定现实意义.根据GPS,BDS和Galileo系统所采用的电离层修正模型,利用2014年电离层校正参数,以高精度全球电离层图为基准,评估分析了三大系统电离层时延的改正精度.结果表明:目前GNSS使用的几种电离层修正模型的改正率在65~75%左右;Galileo系统使用的第二版NeQuick模型与第一版NeQuick模型相比在修正精度上并无显著提高;GPS使用的Klobuchar 8参数模型在北半球25°-45°N的中纬度地区精度很高,但是在全球其他区域精度较低,分布性较差,而NeQuick模型全球改正率分布则较为平均且平滑.     

Contributions of the French Institut Géographique National (IGN) to the International DORIS Service

DORIS is one of the four geodetic space techniques participating to the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS). Since the early development of this system, the Institut Géographique National played a specific and active role. Within, the International DORIS Service (IDS), IGN is in a particular position. While it is responsible for the installation and the maintenance of the DORIS ground tracking stations, it also handles one of the two IDS data center delivering DORIS data and products and has been an IDS Analysis Center for years, providing all possible IDS products, in particular the latest ignwd08 time series in preparation of ITRF2008. This paper explains the different aspects of the IGN contribution to IDS from an historical point of view, presents current activities and scientific results and provides a perspective for future activities. Recent DORIS results show a 10 mm precision or better when more than four DORIS satellites are available. Comparisons between recent DORIS solutions (ign07d02 and ign09d02) and past ITRF realizations show that errors are shared between the DORIS and the ITRF realizations. Some problems related to DORIS data processing are also discussed and possible ways to solve them in the future are discussed. In particular, we can now reject the tropospheric origin of the problem detected in the Envisat data after the software upload of October 12, 2004. A few applications in geodesy (terrestrial reference frame, Earth’s polar motion) and geophysics are also discussed as a natural extension of these service-type activities.     

2012年3月9日中国某地球同步轨道卫星故障原因分析

利用GOES-15, SDO, SOHO卫星以及国际地磁台网的地磁活动指数数据, 对中国 某颗地 球同步轨道卫星(以GEO-X代替)在2012年3月9日02:50UTC发生的异常原因进 行了研究, 分析故障发生期间的空间天气特点, 采用文献[8]提出的SEAES-GEO空 间环境引起地球同步轨道卫星异常的专家系统对卫星故障期间的内部充电危 险系数、单粒子效应危险系数以及表面充电危险系数进行定量计算和危险等 级划分. 结果表明, 在卫星故障时刻, 其内部充电危险系数小于3, 表面充电危险 系数约为0.0011, 表面充电和内部充电不是造成GEO-X故障的原因; 受故障期间 质子事件影响, 单粒子效应危险系数持续维持在1以上, GEO-X卫星故障时刻单 粒子效应危险系数Z_SEE达到46.3, 正好处于单粒子效应危险等级的 红色阶段. 因此研究认为单粒子效应可能是造成本次卫星故障的主要原因.     

东亚大陆磁异常区地磁太阳日变化的异常特征

使用ＩＧＹ／ＩＧＣ（１９５７。７。１－１９５９。１２。３０）期间全球地磁台网和中国长春、北京、上海、拉萨四台的地磁资料，分析了东亚大陆磁常区地磁异常区地磁太阳静日变化Ｓｑ的异常特征，分析表明，组成Ｓｑ的两个主要谐波（１次和２次谐波）在东亚大陆常区呈现出不同于其他区的分布特征；Ｘ分量振幅值一般高于地磁纬度相同的其他地区的振幅。振幅极小值出现的纬度向南移动约２０°，极小值的量值小于其他地区，由东亚异常     

Statistical modelling of radio wave propagation under sporadic E-Layer influence

A technique of modelling the one-hop radio wave propagation at middle latitudes in the presence of sporadic E-Layer is presented. The technique is focused on the performance of the long-term forecast of the maximum usable frequency range and on the increase of the radio communication reliability. Examples of calculation for medium-distance paths are shown.