The CME-productivity associated with flares from two active regions

We report on two flare-productive adjacent active regions (ARs), with different levels of coronal mass ejection (CME) association. AR 10039 and AR 10044 produced strong X-ray flares during their disk passages. We examined the CME association rate of X-ray flares and found it to be different between the two ARs. AR 10039 was CME-rich with 72% association with flares, while AR 10044 was CME-poor with an association rate of only 14%. CMEs from the CME-rich AR were faster and wider than the ones from the CME-poor AR. The flare activity of AR 10044 was temporally concentrated over a short interval and spatially localized over a compact area between the major sun spots. We suggest that different pre-eruption evolution and magnetic configuration in the two regions might have contributed to the difference between the two ARs.     

Analysis of a long-duration AR throughout five solar rotations: Magnetic properties and ejective events

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are among the most magnificent solar eruptions, are a major driver of space weather and can thus affect diverse human technologies. Different processes have been proposed to explain the initiation and release of CMEs from solar active regions (ARs), without reaching consensus on which is the predominant scenario, and thus rendering impossible to accurately predict when a CME is going to erupt from a given AR. To investigate AR magnetic properties that favor CMEs production, we employ multi-spacecraft data to analyze a long duration AR (NOAA 11089, 11100, 11106, 11112 and 11121) throughout its complete lifetime, spanning five Carrington rotations from July to November 2010. We use data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory to study the evolution of the AR magnetic properties during the five near-side passages, and a proxy to follow the magnetic flux changes when no magnetograms are available, i.e. during far-side transits. The ejectivity is studied by characterizing the angular widths, speeds and masses of 108 CMEs that we associated to the AR, when examining a 124-day period. Such an ejectivity tracking was possible thanks to the multi-viewpoint images provided by the Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in a quasi-quadrature configuration. We also inspected the X-ray flares registered by the GOES satellite and found 162 to be associated to the AR under study. Given the substantial number of ejections studied, we use a statistical approach instead of a single-event analysis. We found three well defined periods of very high CMEs activity and two periods with no mass ejections that are preceded or accompanied by characteristic changes in the AR magnetic flux, free magnetic energy and/or presence of electric currents. Our large sample of CMEs and long term study of a single AR, provide further evidence relating AR magnetic activity to CME and Flare production.     

CME productivity associated with Solar Flare peak X-ray emission flux

It is often noticed that the occurrence rate of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) increases with increase in flare duration where peak flux too increase. However, there is no complete association between the duration and peak flux. Distinct characteristics have been reported for active regions (ARs) where flares and CMEs occur in contrast to ARs where flares alone occur. It is observed that peak flux of flares is higher when associated with CMEs compared to peak flux of flares with which CMEs are not associated. In other words, it is likely that flare duration and peak flux are independently affected by distinct active region dynamics. Hence, we examine the relative ability of flare duration and peak flux in enhancing the CME productivity. We report that CME productivity is distinctly higher in association with the enhancement of flare peak flux in comparison to corresponding enhancement of flare duration.     

Solar and interplanetary precursors of geomagnetic storms in solar cycle 23

Estimating the magnetic storm effectiveness of solar and associated interplanetary phenomena is of practical importance for space weather modelling and prediction. This article presents results of a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probable causes of geomagnetic storms during the 11-year period of solar cycle 23: 1996–2006. Potential solar causes of 229 magnetic storms (Dst ? −50 nT) were investigated with a particular focus on halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A 5-day time window prior to the storm onset was considered to track backward the Sun’s eruptions of halo CMEs using the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue list. Solar and interplanetary (IP) properties associated with halo CMEs were investigated and correlated to the resulting geomagnetic storms (GMS). In addition, a comparative analysis between full and partial halo CME-driven storms is established. The results obtained show that about 83% of intense storms (Dst ? −100 nT) were associated with halo CMEs. For moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), only 54% had halo CME background, while the remaining 46% were assumed to be associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or undetected frontside CMEs. It was observed in this study that intense storms were mostly associated with full halo CMEs, while partial halo CMEs were generally followed by moderate storms. This analysis indicates that up to 86% of intense storms were associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) at 1 AU, as compared to moderate storms with only 44% of ICME association. Many other quantitative results are presented in this paper, providing an estimate of solar and IP precursor properties of GMS within an average 11-year solar activity cycle. The results of this study constitute a key step towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.     

Energetic particle signatures of geoeffective coronal mass ejections

We have studied statistically associations of moderate and intense geomagnetic storms with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and energetic particle events. The goal was to identify specific energetic particle signatures, which could be used to improve the predictions of the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Protons in the range 1–110 MeV from the ERNE experiment onboard SOHO are used in the analysis. The study covers the time period from August 1996 to July 2000. We demonstrate the feasibility of energetic particle observations as an additional source of information in evaluating the geoeffectiveness of full and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed onset times of solar energetic particle (SEP) events and energetic storm particle (ESP) events, we derive a proxy for the transit times of shocks driven by the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections from the Sun to the Earth. For a limited number of geomagnetic storms which can be associated to both SEP and ESP signatures, we found that this transit time correlates with the strength of geomagnetic storms.     

太阳高能粒子事件上升时间统计研究

选取1997-2006年共66个较大的缓变型太阳高能粒子(SEP)事件, 分析了不同条件下太阳高能粒子通量廓线上升时间与源区日面经向分布之间的相关关系, 研究了日冕物质抛射(CME)和耀斑在SEP上升阶段的作用特点.统计结果表明,大SEP事件的源区主要分布在太阳西半球, 特别是磁足点东西两侧45°范围内; 在高速太阳风条件下, 低能通道的通量上升时间与日面相对经度有较好的相关性,即离磁足点越远, 上升时间越长,而高能通道相关性则不明显; 全晕状CME产生的SEP事件对应的上升时间与源区位置没有明显的相关性, 而部分晕状CME伴随的SEP事件则与二次拟合曲线符合很好.分析表明,在缓变型SEP事件的通量上升阶段, 耀斑加速过程起着重要作用,这在部分晕状CME伴随的SEP事件中尤为显著.      

Relation between the radial speed and theexpansion speed of coronal mass ejections

We have selected 57 limb coronal mass ejections observed by LASCO during the period of January1997 to April 2001. We used the related EIT activity close to the limb to define these CMEs as “limbs”. We measured the radial speed of the leading edge close to the center of these CMEs and the lateral expansion speed of the structures. Comparison of both speeds revealed a high correlation between them, the radial speed being around 88% of the expansion speed of the CME. The expansion speed can also be measured for halo CMEs so that it can be used to infer their radial speed toward earth, which is otherwise inaccessible.     

Study of CME transit speeds for the event of 07-NOV-2004

Several methods for CME speed estimation are discussed. These include velocity derivation based on the frequency drifts observed in metric and decametric radio wave data using a range of coronal density models. Coronagraph height–time plots allow measurement of plane-of-sky and expansion speeds. These in turn can enable propagation speeds to be derived from a range of empirical relations. Simple geometric e.g., cone, models can provide propagation velocity estimates for suitable halo or partial halo events. Interplanetary scintillation observations allow speed estimates at large distances from the Sun detecting in particular the deceleration of the faster CMEs. Related interplanetary shocks and the arrival times and speeds of the associated magnetic clouds at Earth can also be considered. We discuss the application of some of these methods to the transit to Earth of a complex CME that originated earlier than 16:54 U.T. on 07-NOV-2004. The difficulties in making velocity estimates from radio observations, particularly under disturbed coronal conditions, are highlighted.     

Testing the asymmetric cone model for halo CMEs using STEREO/SECCHI coronagraphic observations

Space weather is significantly controlled by halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) originating close to the central meridian and directing toward the Earth. Unfortunately, coronagraphic observations (especially for HCMEs) are subject to a projection effect which makes it impossible to determine the true radial velocity and width of CMEs. However, these parameters can be estimated by correcting for the projection effect using the asymmetric cone model (Michalek, 2006). A set of 20 CMEs, observed as halo events in the LASCO field of view and simultaneously as limb events in the STEREO/SECCHI field of view, are used to check the accuracy of the asymmetric cone model. For this purpose, characteristics of the considered CMEs (angular widths and radial speeds) measured in STEREO/SECCHI images are compared with those obtained by the asymmetric cone model. We demonstrate that the widths and speeds determined by both methods are very similar. Correlation coefficients for speeds and angular widths are 0.99 and 0.96, respectively. We have also shown that the projection effect is unpredictable and could sometimes be very significant (up to 100% of the velocity measured in the LASCO field of view). On average, the SOHO/LASCO projected speeds for the HCMEs are 23% smaller than the radial velocities obtained from the STEREO/SECCHI images.     

Orientations of LASCO Halo CMEs and their connection to the flux rope structure of interplanetary CMEs

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed near the Sun via LASCO coronographic imaging are the most important solar drivers of geomagnetic storms. ICMEs, their interplanetary, near-Earth counterparts, can be detected in situ, for example, by the Wind and ACE spacecraft. An ICME usually exhibits a complex structure that very often includes a magnetic cloud (MC). They can be commonly modelled as magnetic flux ropes and there is observational evidence to expect that the orientation of a halo CME elongation corresponds to the orientation of the flux rope. In this study, we compare orientations of elongated CME halos and the corresponding MCs, measured by Wind and ACE spacecraft. We characterize the MC structures by using the Grad–Shafranov reconstruction technique and three MC fitting methods to obtain their axis directions. The CME tilt angles and MC fitted axis angles were compared without taking into account handedness of the underlying flux rope field and the polarity of its axial field. We report that for about 64% of CME–MC events, we found a good correspondence between the orientation angles implying that for the majority of interplanetary ejecta their orientations do not change significantly (less than 45 deg rotation) while travelling from the Sun to the near-Earth environment.     

Solar energetic particle events during the rise phases of solar cycles 23 and 24

We present a comparative study of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with the solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the rising phases of solar cycles (SC) 23 (1996–1998) (22 events) and 24 (2009–2011) (20 events), which are associated with type II radio bursts. Based on the SEP intensity, we divided the events into three categories, i.e. weak (intensity < 1 pfu), minor (1 pfu < intensity < 10 pfu) and major (intensity ? 10 pfu) events. We used the GOES data for the minor and major SEP events and SOHO/ERNE data for the weak SEP event. We examine the correlation of SEP intensity with flare size and CME properties. We find that most of the major SEP events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs originating close to the sun center and western-hemisphere. The fraction of halo CMEs in SC 24 is larger than the SC 23. For the minor SEP events one event in SC23 and one event in SC24 have widths < 120° and all other events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs as in the case of major SEP events. In case of weak SEP events, majority (more than 60%) of events are associated with CME width < 120°. For both the SC the average CMEs speeds are similar. For major SEP events, average CME speeds are higher in comparison to minor and weak events. The SEP event intensity and GOES X-ray flare size are poorly correlated. During the rise phase of solar cycle 23 and 24, we find north–south asymmetry in the SEP event source locations: in cycle 23 most sources are located in the south, whereas during cycle 24 most sources are located in the north. This result is consistent with the asymmetry found with sunspot area and intense flares.     

A statistical study of CME-associated flare during the solar cycle 24

We investigate on the relationship between flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in which a flare started before and after the CME events which differ in their physical properties, indicating potentially different initiation mechanisms. The physical properties of two types flare-correlated CME remain an interesting and important question in space weather. We study the relationship between flares and CMEs using a different approach requiring both temporal and spatial constraints during the period from December 1, 2008 to April 30, 2017 in which the CMEs data were acquired by SOHO/LASCO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) over the solar cycle 24. The soft X-ray flare flux data, such as flare class, location, onset time and integrated flux, are collected from Geostationary Environmental satellite (GOES) and XRT Flare catalogs. We selected 307 CMEs-flares pairs applying simultaneously temporal and spatial constraints in all events for the distinguish between two associated CME-flare types. We study the correlated properties of coincident flares and CMEs during this period, specifically separating the sample into two types: flares that precede a CME and flares that follow a CME. We found an opposite correlation relationship between the acceleration and velocity of CMEs in the After- and Before-CMEs events. We found a log-log relation between the width and mass of CMEs in the two associated types. The CMEs and flares properties show that there were significant differences in all physical parameters such as (mass, angular width, kinetic energy, speed and acceleration) between two flare-associated CME types.     

Coronal mass ejection speeds measured in the solar corona using LASCO C2 and C3 images

In this work we present height-time diagrams of 2 halo coronal mass ejections, observed on September 28th, 1997 and June 29th, 1999. The CMEs were observed by the Large Angle and Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO), which observes the solar corona from 2 to 32 solar radii. To obtain these diagrams we divide the LASCO images of a given sequence in angular slices, transform them into rectangular slices (their width chosen proportional to the time distance to the next image) and place them side by side. Thus, the speed profile of any pattern moving in the particular latitudinal slice can be derived. With this method we were able to identify even minor speed changes in several angular positions for the chosen events. This technique is particularly appropriate to identify acceleration or deceleration of structures in halo CMEs.     

What are the physical mechanisms of eruptions and CMEs?

CMEs are due to physical phenomena that drive both, eruptions and flares in active regions. Eruptions/CMEs must be driven from initially force-free current-carrying magnetic field. Twisted flux ropes, sigmoids, current lanes and pattern in photospheric current maps show a clear evidence of currents parallel to the magnetic field. Eruptions occur starting from equilibria which have reached some instability threshold. Revisiting several data sets of CME observations we identified different mechanisms leading to this unstable state from a force free field. Boundary motions related to magnetic flux emergence and shearing favor the increase of coronal currents leading to the large flares of November 2003. On the other hand, we demonstrated by numerical simulations that magnetic flux emergence is not a sufficient condition for eruptions. Filament eruptions are interpreted either by a torus instability for an event occurring during the minimum of solar activity either by the diffusion of the magnetic flux reducing the tension of the restraining arcade. We concluded that CME models (tether cutting, break out, loss of equilibrium models) are based on these basic mechanisms for the onset of CMEs.     

Two energy release processes for CMEs: MHD catastrophe and magnetic reconnection

It remains an open question how magnetic energy is rapidly released in the solar corona so as to create solar explosions such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Recent studies have confirmed that a system consisting of a flux rope embedded in a background field exhibits a catastrophic behavior, and the energy threshold at the catastrophic point may exceed the associated open field energy. The accumulated free energy in the corona is abruptly released when the catastrophe takes place, and it probably serves as the main means of energy release for CMEs at least in the initial phase. Such a release proceeds via an ideal MHD process in contrast with nonideal ones such as magnetic reconnection. The catastrophe results in a sudden formation of electric current sheets, which naturally provide proper sites for fast magnetic reconnection. The reconnection may be identified with a solar flare associated with the CME on one hand, and produces a further acceleration of the CME on the other. On this basis, several preliminary suggestions are made for future observational investigations, especially with the proposed Kuafa satellites, on the roles of the MHD catastrophe and magnetic reconnection in the magnetic energy release associated with CMEs and flares.     

An application of the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient to solar compact and eruptive events

We propose to apply the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient (${\mathit{WG}}_M$), introduced in Korsós et al., 2015, for analysing the pre-flare and pre-CME behaviour and evolution of Active Regions (ARs) using the SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data catalogue. To demonstrate the power of investigative capabilities of the ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ method, in terms of flare and CME eruptions, we studied two typical ARs, namely, AR 12158 and AR 12192. The choice of ARs represent canonical cases. AR 12158 produced an X1.6 flare with fast “halo” CME ($v_{\mathit{linear}}$ = 1267 $\text{km}{\text{s}}^{-1}$) while in AR 12192 there occurred a range of powerful X-class eruptions, i.e. X1.1, X1.6, X3.1, X1.0, X2.0 and X2.0-class energetic flares, interestingly, none with an accompanying CME. The value itself and temporal variation of ${\mathit{WG}}_M$ is found to possess potentially important diagnostic information about the intensity of the expected flare class. Furthermore, we have also estimated the flare onset time from the relationship of duration of converging and diverging motions of the area-weighted barycenters of two subgroups of opposite magnetic polarities. This test turns out not only to provide information about the intensity of the expected flare-class and the flare onset time but may also indicate whether a flare will occur with/without fast CME. We have also found that, in the case when the negative polarity barycenter has moved around and the positive one “remained” at the same coordinates preceding eruption, the flare occurred with fast “halo” CME. Otherwise, when both the negative and the positive polarity barycenters have moved around, the AR produced flares without CME. If these properties found for the movement of the barycenters are generic pre-cursors of CME eruption (or lack of it), identifying them may serve as an excellent pre-condition for refining the forecast of the lift-off of CMEs.     

Enhancement of solar wind low-energy energetic particles as precursor of geomagnetic disturbance in operational geomagnetic forecast

A study of the relationship between solar wind low-energy energetic particles using data from the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) onboard the Advanced Compositional Explorer spacecraft (ACE) and geomagnetic activity using data from Canadian magnetic observatories in Canada’s polar cap, auroral zone, and subauroral zone was carried out for a period spanning 1997–2005. Full halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were used to gauge the initial particle enhancements and the subsequent geomagnetic activity. It was found that maximum geomagnetic activity is related to maximum particle enhancements in a non-linear fashion. Quadratic fit of the data results in expressions that can be easily used in an operational space weather setting to forecast geomagnetic disturbance quantitatively. A superposed epoch analysis shows increase in particle flux level starts hours before geomagnetic activity attains its peak, affirming the precursory nature of EPAM particles for the impending geomagnetic impact of CME. This can supplement the decision process in formulating geomagnetic warning after the launch of CME from the Sun but before the arrival of shock at Earth. The empirical relationships between solar wind low-energy energetic particles and geomagnetic activity revealed in this statistical study can be easily codified, and thus utilized in operational space weather forecast to appraise the geoeffectiveness of the CME and to provide a quantitative forecast for maximum geomagnetic activity in Canada’s polar cap, auroral zone, and subauroral zone after the occurrence of a CME.     

米波Ⅲ型爆发与日冕物质抛射

对澳大利亚Culgoora天文台射电频谱仪在太阳活动第23周峰年期间记录到的米波Ⅲ型爆发(20～420 MHz),与日冕物质抛射(CME)、Hα耀斑及相关事件进行了统计分析,发现米波Ⅲ型爆发与CME的关系没有Ⅱ、Ⅳ型爆发与CME的关系密切;米波Ⅲ型爆发发生的时间在CME之前25～30 min最多;72%的CME事件伴随长寿命的Hα耀斑.从这些观测特征出发,对米波Ⅲ型爆发、CME和Hα耀斑进行了定性的解释.      

Kuafu and the studies of CME initiation

We first briefly review the current trend in the studies of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), then summarize some recent efforts in understanding the CME initiation. Emphasis has been put on the studies of Earth-directed CMEs whose associated surface activity and large scale magnetic source have been well identified. The data analysis by combining the MDI full disc magnetograms, vector magnetograms of active regions, EUV waves and dimmings, non-thermal radio sources, and the SOHO LASCO observations has shed new light in understanding the CME magnetism. However, the current studies seem to invoke new observations in a few aspects: (1) The observations which enable us to trace CMEs from the earliest associated surface activity to its initial acceleration and key development in the low corona in the height of 1–3 R; (2) The imaging spectroscopic observations which can be used to diagnose the early plasma outflow and the line-of-sight velocity in understanding the kinematics of CMEs; (3) The accurate timing from primary magnetic energy release, manifested by chromospheric activity, non-thermal radio bursts, and EUV, X-ray and γ-ray emissions, to the CME initiation, early acceleration and propagation, and the consequences in the interplanetary space and magnetosphere. The Kuafu Mission will meet the basic requirement for the new observations in CME initiation studies and serve as a monitor of space weather of the Sun–Earth system.